2/27/2015- A down day with the Dow Jones down 81 points (-0.45%) and the Nasdaq down 24 points (-0.49%)
The stock market continues to perform as expected. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.
Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, of Odey Asset Management, recently shared some food for thought.
- I think equity markets will get devastated.
- Major economies are entering a recession that will be remembered in a hundred years.
- Bearish opportunity to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.
He goes on to say….
We are in the first stage of this downturn. It is too early to see what will happen – a change of this magnitude means the darkness and mist is very great. We will make some mistakes but with our thinking we won’t make the major mistakes. The problem is where you stand – I am amazed to see so many are fully invested given that equities are already fighting the downtrend. Mid and smallcaps have moved into bear markets and much relies on large caps to keep the whole thing going and they are very exposed to international trade.
I mostly agree with Mr. Odey’s economic assessment at this juncture. And while most people would label me as a “perma bear” I would have to disagree with the extent of his bearishness. I know….crazy. Here is why the decline of 2015-2017 will not be as great as the collapse of 2007-2009 and why it is certain that we will not see the crash of 1929-32 nor another great depression. At least for the time being.
This conclusion comes out of my mathematical and timing work. As I have said so many times before, we are now in the final stages of a secular bear market that started in January of 2000. The decline of 2007-2009 was a mid cycle panic. We had the same massive declines in all previous bear markets. For instance, 1907-1908, 1937 crash, 1973-1974.
What does that mean?
It simply means that final secular bear market declines of 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1981-1982 are never as violent as mid-cycle panics. That is to say, while the decline of 2015-2017 will be substantial, leading to big losses, it won’t be as violent nor as deep as the decline of 2007-2009.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 27th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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