11/25/2014 -A positive day with the Dow Jones up 2 points (+0.01%) and the Nasdaq up 3 points (+0.07%).
Something doesn’t smell right. I am talking about a massive divergence between the stock market and the bond market. The stock market is sitting at an all time high and according to most market pundits, this economic miracle is just getting going.
Yet, the bond market is predicting a massive recession. The yield curve continues to compress and the 10-Year note is once again below 2.3%. This can only mean two things. Either the stock market is right and the yields will snap back (what most people are anticipating) – OR- the stock market is in a massive bubble that is about to blow up. I don’t know about you, but my money is on the bond market.
Plus…. consider the following.
- The stock market is incredibly overpriced. By most valuation metrics. With some valuations pushing 2007 and 2000 (nasdaq) tops.
- The 5 year bull market cycle is now over.
- We are still in a 17 year secular bear market that started in 2000. The last 2-3 years are always down.
- There are no bears left. Everyone has capitulated.
- Bulls see every 5-10% correction as a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
- The FED is tightening and any remaining QE velocity is collapsing.
- Massive divergences. Particularly with the bond market.
- Smart investors like Icahn, Soros, Faber, Rogers are shorting this market.
- Etc….I can list another 20 points, but you get the idea.
Still think the Dow is going much higher in 2015? Yeah……good luck with that.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 25th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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