2/1/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 17 points (-0.10%) and the Nasdaq up 6 points (+0.14%)
The Dow is up a miserly 1,000 points since its bottom on January 20th, but all sorts of bottom calling creatures are out in force. For instance….
- Bear Market? I See a Bull Market for the Next 15-20 Years
- Selling stampede ended last week: Saut
- Has the most reliable U.S. recession predictor lost its value?
“If China suffers a hard landing — we don’t expect that — but if it does, it will impact other emerging markets,” he said. “And when you look at other emerging markets, along with China, that can spill over not only to the United States, but to the rest of the global economy.For that reason, Chan puts the chances of a U.S. recession at roughly 25 percent.
I am just curious about where they were when I was calling and/or looking for a bottom….Should Investors Be Panicking Right About Now? (published on January 20th)
I am literally dumbfounded by how blind or how much in denial these people are. I predicted this recession two years ago. It is a simple matter of QE, interest rates and credit velocity. As soon as it is withdrawn, even at the margins, this Ponzi economy perpetuated by easy credit will collapse. It as simple as that.
Further, let me ask you a few simple questions. If the US Economy is doing so well, why has the Baltic Dry Index collapsed? Hitting its historic lows daily now. Why is the yield curve is as flat as a pancake and nearing inversion? Why has oil collapsed? Why was forward earnings guidance down 2% (biggest adjustment down since 2008) in Q-3?
Are we expected to believe that this is a mid-cycle slowdown? If so, please enlighten me, just what will propel us forward?
But here is the scariest part of all. The stock market hasn’t yet reacted to any of the above and/or readjusted. As I have mentioned at least a thousand times by now, the market is sitting at the 4th highest valuation level in history. According to Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E Ration. Right behind 1929, 2000 and 2007 tops.
And it shouldn’t take a genius to figure out what happens next. In fact, a proper investment allocation here should be as easy as it would be for Bernie Madoff to steal girl scout cookies on a Sunday afternoon.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 1st, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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