Inflation adjusted, of course.
“Adjusted for inflation, the Nasdaq is only 2.0% above the peak in 2000. That comes out to a whopping annualized return of 0.10% over the past 18 years. When someone says tech is in a bubble this chart screams that it is anything but,” wrote Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, which compiled this data.
Fair enough.
At the same time and technically speaking, double top formations are notoriously dangerous. And when they do fire off, they typically suggest much lower prices ahead.
As a singular data point, the chart above is somewhat meaningless. However, if we combine it with other factors we discuss on this blog constantly (too numerous to mention here), the Nasdaq might be putting in a massive top. If you would like to find out if that is indeed the case, please Click Here
Back to our weekly update…..
– State of the Market Address:
- The Dow is back below 25,000
- Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 33.10 Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
- Weekly RSI at 55 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 48 – neutral.
- Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,000 today (on weekly).
- Weekly Stochastics at 48 – neutral. Daily at 40 – neutral. .
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +16 Neutral.
- Commercial VIX interest is now 27K contracts net short.
- Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted into a bullish positioning. For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 3X net short, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is now 2X net long.
In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear long-term bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.
ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:
Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.
Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric’s Elliott Waves
Explanation:
Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here
Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.
