6/7/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 18 points (+0.10%) and the Nasdaq down 7 points (-0.14%).
If you have no short-term memory, as is the case with most “professionals” on Wall Street, investment sentiment was downright scary just a few months ago. On or around February 11th low to be exact. With numerous investors and market pundits calling for an all out crash and financial Armageddon. I wrote about it at that time.
Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long? (Feb 10th)
Today, the situation is entirely reversed. You would be hard pressed to find a bear. With most market participants and pundits already celebrating new all time highs.
Too soon…..time to go short? Perhaps.
Before we can answer that question with any degree of certainty we have to ask ourselves the following question……has anything changed since February 11th bottom?
Not fundamentally, but the investment sentiment did swing in the opposite direction.
Now, one can argue that the Fed’s inability or unwillingness to raise interest rates is what’s driving this market higher. It might be, but you won’t find me in that analytical camp. I have been posting for over a year here that the Fed will not raise interest in any meaningful way going forward. Why The FED Will NOT Be Raising Rates Next Year That should have been clear a long time ago.
In short, the fundamental backdrop we have faced in February of this year remains there. With a few notable exceptions. The US Economy, earnings and guidance continue to deteriorate, all while valuations remain at sky high bubble valuations levels. The chart below just about says it all.
Invest accordingly.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 7th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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