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Is The US Dollar About To Crash?

USD Forecast

Many bears believe the future is quite simple. The FED will forgo raising interest rates, the US Dollar will collapse, gold will surge and the stock market will crater. For instance, Peter Schiff: ‘Real Move of Dollar Is Going to Be Crash’

I do not share in such an apocalyptic view. The reality or the financial markets we are dealing with today are a lot more complex. Take a look at the chart above.  It clear shows that the US Dollar broke out of a decade long downtrend late last year. This appears to be a structural move higher, not just a quick speculative blow off top.

In other words, the chances of the USD collapsing here are slim.  Don’t get me wrong. Nothing moves straight up/down and some volatility is to be expected, but I wouldn’t proclaim that the dollar is about to crash. The market doesn’t see it and I tend to agree.

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Is The US Dollar About To Crash?  Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Investors often claim how easy it is to follow Warren Buffett’s advice. Well, there you go, follow it. I have witnessed the 2000 and 2007 tops first hand and I have studied every single top going back to May 20th of 1790 (first day of trading). Including generational tops of 1929 and 1835. Arguably, investors have never been more greedy than they are today. – Alex Dvorkin

warren-buffett-letter“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

-Warren Buffett

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day  Google

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Why The FED Is Clueless

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is great at practicing the art of “talking quite a bit without saying anything”. And while some investors might interpret that as a net positive, with the FED having the flexibility to move in multiple directions, I see it differently. I see the FED being stuck and not knowing what to do next. They have run out of options, as I have illustrated here so many times before, and it is just a matter of time before reality catches up.  Watch and judge for yourself. 

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Why The FED Is Clueless  Google

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This Party Is Just Getting Started. Stock Market Valuations Can Go Infinite

Daily Chart AMarch 23rd

3/23/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 11 points (-0.06%) and the Nasdaq down 15 points (-0.31%) 

According to quite a few market pundits, the party in the equity markets hasn’t even started yet. Case and point

I cannot stop shaking my head in disbelief. To save you some time, here is what was said:

“This is an extraordinary buying opportunity, buy any and all dips, with zero interest rates the price of equities could be infinite, this bull market will continue, valuation don’t matter anymore, etc….”

Valuations don’t matter……infinite run ups are just around the corner …..buy now. That sounds familiar. If I didn’t hear the exact same thing at 2007 and 2000 tops, well, call me a fool.

Again, the underlying assumption in both cases is the same. We are in such a unique monetary easing environment that there is no way in hell the markets can go down. Maybe so, but here is the major point that most investors miss. Today’s market environment becomes a matter of psychological setup as opposed to a fundamental background.

When everyone and their day trading grandmother believe that we are in such a bullish environment, the market is getting ready to reverse. Why? Well, it’s rather simple, everyone has already bought into the long side of the market. Contrary to the opinion of the market pundits above, I would argue that the only opportunity here is on the short side (or in cash).

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 23rd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

This Party Is Just Getting Started. Stock Market Valuations Can Go Infinite  Google

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Is FEAR Driving Equity Markets Higher?

VXX

With VXX and VIX approaching their respective all time lows, you have to wonder what Robert Shiller means when he says Fear behind current stock market highs  A similar line of thinking can be ascertained here Volatility to Bring Rough Times to U.S. Equities:

So, what in the world are they talking about? 

They are talking about the fear of under performing their peers. If you look around the world, a few things become evident. First, quite a few equity markets are booming. Most notably in China and Germany. Second, with most central bankers hell bent on flooding the markets with even more liquidity, it only makes sense to be fully invested.  The thinking is, even though valuations are high this liquidity has no place to go but into the stock market. As a result, most investors are forced to chase performance.

Fair enough, but that does not address the primary issue. That we are in a massive speculative bubble that will eventually pop. In might happen today or a few months from now……that doesn’t really matter. What matters is, most investors today are acting as they did in March of 2000. The only difference is, instead of chasing Pets.com they are chasing FED liquidity.  Yet, we all know how this ends

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Is FEAR Driving Equity Markets Higher? Google

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Breaking News: CIA Finally Knows Where Putin Was – Investment Grin Of The Day

What Putin did during his recent ‘disappearance’

where was putin

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Breaking News: CIA Finally Knows Where Putin Was – Investment Grin Of The Day  Google

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Ted Butler & Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast

March 21st, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Precious metals expert and one of the most popular commentators within the space, Ted Butler of Butler Research, joins Matt and I for a fascinating conversation. We discuss precious metals in great detail in an attempt to figure out what happens next. Plus, we go on to discuss the following topics….

  • You can learn more about Ted Butler and Butler Research by Clicking Here. 
  • What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
  • COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
  • Deflation, employment numbers, gold, geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
  • A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
  • And of course, much…..much more.

Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday. 

Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here

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Ted Butler & Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast Google

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Did Biotech (IBB) Top Out TODAY?

Daily Chart AMarch 20th

3/20/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 162 points (+0.94%) and the Nasdaq up 34 points (+0.68%)

Before we get to Biotech, there has been a lot of talk recently about how most markets are heavily manipulated. From gold to equities, from bonds to cocaine (not that I would know). For instance, Yardeni: Markets all rigged, it is what it is  I don’t see it. My mathematical work continues to show that the Dow continues to trace out its exact mathematical points of force. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.   

Now, to Biotech. 

The Nasdaq hit an Intraday high of 5,132 on March 10th, 2000, then promptly turned around and proceeded to collapse 80%. Is it possible that the Biotech Index (IBB) did the same thing exactly 15 years later?

Not only is it possible, it is highly probable. Back in 2000 it was Pets.com and Nortel Networks. Today, it is hundreds of impressive sounding “Genome” Biotech names that have

  • A few Ph.D’s on their payroll.
  • An impressive idea.
  • A white paper on how their new generation drug will change the world and make Trillions….a  paper that maybe 10 people on this Earth can fully understand.
  • No way in hell of making a cent or getting their drug to the market.
  • A whole bunch of stupid investors that believe they will get rich.

Make no mistake, Biotech is an a giant bubble that will pop. And it’s not only Biotech. We are witnessing the same thing in the Silicon Valley’s “Mark Cuban” illiquidity bubble and even on the Nasdaq. Alibaba deal values Snapchat at $15 billion Do I really need to say anything when an app with no revenue is valued at $15 Billion by a company that is in its own spectacular overvaluation bubble? I hope note.

Anyway, why do I believe we might have hit the top in Biotech (IBB) today? Today’s blow off (gap) open and some of my other work within the sector.  That is to say, don’t be surprised if we get a massive sell-off in Biotech over the next few months.

IBB2

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 20th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Did Biotech (IBB) Top Out TODAY? Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

john-templeton“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” – John Templeton

Sounds easy enough, but how many of you would sell today?     – Alex

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day  Google

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What Albert Einstein Thinks About Janet Yellen & The FED

Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen

I disagree with Peter Schiff on a lot of things, but he might be right about the FED’s inability to raise interest rates over the next few months/years. Assuming the FED knows that we are in a gigantic bubble that is about to pop. Again, their past actions bring that into question.  You can watch the video here  Schiff: The Fed is afraid to pop a bubble

Here is the question I have. I believe the next round of QE is out of the question, until and unless various asset prices go through a substantial drop. So, if the FED forgoes raising interest rates, at what point does this financial bubble collapses under its own weight?

I have a fairly good idea, based on my stock market mathematical and timing work, but I will leave it up to you to decide. If you don’t think that there is a bubble or that it will collapse, keep buying equities.It is as simple as that. However, if you do believe that there is a bubble, the FED’s actions become inconsequential. The bubble will blow up either under its own weight or as soon as the FED signals the first hike.

With that in mind, perhaps we should listen to what Albert Einstein thinks about all of this.

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready. “I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it’s the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others” he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants. “See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!”
“Why that’s wonderful!” Says Albert. “We can discuss mathematics!”

“And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!”
“Why that’s wonderful!” Says Albert. “We can discuss physics!”

“And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!”
“That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!”

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert’s hand and shake it. “I’m your last room mate and I’m sorry, but my IQ is only 80.”
Albert smiles back at him and says, “So, where do you think interest rates are headed?”

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What Albert Einstein Thinks About Janet Yellen & The FED Google