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Intel (INTC) Guides Down. Are Others About To Follow?

Daily Chart AMarch 12th

3/12/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 259 points (1.47%) and the Nasdaq up 43 points (0.89%)

It has been my premise that the stock market has disconnected from any sort of economic reality a while ago. And while numerous Macro Economic indicators are literally collapsing, as covered here previously, the stock market is sitting near all time highs.

Earlier today Intel (INTC) slashed its Q1 revenue forecast by 7%. The bad old days may be back for Intel and other PC stalwarts Blaming it mostly on weaker demand and stronger dollar.

The change in revenue outlook is a result of weaker than expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower than expected inventory levels across the PC supply chain.The company believes the changes to demand and inventory patterns are caused by lower than expected Windows XP refresh in small and medium business and increasingly challenging macroeconomic and currency conditions, particularly in Europe.

Most financial pundits were quick to dismiss this lower guidance as a “one time event” limited to tech stalwarts. I, however, think there is a much bigger story there. I believe Intel is just the first large company to guide lower. Many more will follow.

Again, in addition to Macro data collapsing, the GDP expectations are also being adjusted down. By 20-50%, depending on the source. That is to say, it is just a matter of time before others start guiding lower as well. If not now, Q2 should do the trick. Once that realization sets in, it won’t be long before the stock market starts playing catch up with the fundamental data below.

Macrodata

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 12th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Intel (INTC) Guides Down. Are Others About To Follow? Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Jim-Rogers-investwithalex“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It’s a basic fact of life that many things “everybody knows” turn out to be wrong.” 
― Jim Rogers

z33

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Top Hedge Fund Manager: No Liquidity, Stock Market Shock Is Imminent

crispin odey

I firmly believe that the only people investors should be listening to right about now are the people who got 2000 and 2007 meltdowns right. Everyone else is just blowing smoke. Crispin Odey, the founder of London-based Odey Asset Management, is one of those people. He does not hold back….

“I just think that you and I have got grandstand seats here [to an imminent market shock] and my point is having found myself in the second quarter of last year selling a lot of equities and starting to go short, I found out just how illiquid it all was. You never actually see it until people try and get out of these things.”

That’s quite a powerful statement and I wholeheartedly agree.  A lot of gold in this The Sydney Morning Herald article and it is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.  He goes on to say…

“For me, what I find very interesting is given the risk of recession, how is it the West stock market can be hitting all-time highs? History tends to be not very generous in this regard. If you get a recession in a low inflation environment it tends to impact the ratings of stocks dramatically. It was akin to “watching the markets take drunken bow after drunken bow. It’s amazing that nobody else is on the same page.”

The upcoming recession and the approaching stock market meltdown are so easy to see, I am not sure why the 99% go on missing it. The attitude was exactly the same at 2000 and 2007 tops. Greed or stupidity? I am not sure, but it is amazing indeed.

Z30

Top Hedge Fund Manager: No Liquidity, Stock Market Shock Is Imminent Google

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Just Another Correction Or Something More?

Daily Chart AMarch 11th

3/11/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 26 points (-0.15%) and the Nasdaq down 10 points (-0.20%). 

Over the last couple of years one investment strategy in particular worked like magic.  If you were to buy every correction, you would have been greatly rewarded. In record time. It then comes as no surprise that today’s correction is viewed, by most market participants, in the very same fashion.

The question is…..should it be? 

I would exercise extreme caution here. Here is why. In addition to the very well know fundamental issues such as bubble valuation levels and upcoming interest rate increases, we are also dealing with with excessively bullish mindset.

This is anecdotal, but I saw the same mindset at 2000 and 2007 tops. Just last night I had dinner with a big money manager who told me in no uncertain terms “We won’t see another 10-20% correction for as long as Obama is in office (I have no idea why).  Plus, the FED will backstop every sell-off and that anyone who believes otherwise will lose money.”

Perhaps. At the same time, I would rather rely on actual data points and my mathematical/timing work. Not pie in the sky dreams perpetuated by the FED and 6 year of bull market. That is to say, when a bear market kicks in and does go through a 20% (or more) correction, 99% of the investors out there will be left behind holding the bag of HOPE. Just as before. Don’t be one of those people.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 11th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Just Another Correction Or Something More? Google

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What You Ought To Know About Apple (AAPL) Dragging The Dow Down

aapl on dow

I continue to be amazed at how our 3-Dimensional reality works behind the scenes. For instance, the chart above illustrates what the Dow would have looked like today if Apple (AAPL) was added to the index back in February of 2008. The Dow would be at around 22,500 and Jeremy Siegel would look like an absolute genius that he is.

Here is the thing. The Dow has an incredibly strong mathematical structure that moves the index behind the scenes. This structure has been in existence since May 20th of 1790 and it hasn’t been broken since. This same math suggests that it would have been impossible for the Dow to be at that level today. In fact, we won’t see it until we hit the year 2021. Hence, Apple was skipped in 2008 and the Bank of America was added instead.

Now that Apple (AAPL) is the company with the biggest market cap, significant overvaluation, too much competition and no exciting new products in its pipeline (hello Apple Watch)……..I believe the company will help drag the Dow down. In other words, Apple was added to the Dow Jones just in time for another bear leg to begin.  Amazing multidimensional reality is once again displaying itself in our limited 3-Dimensional human perception.      

z33

What You Ought To Know About Apple (AAPL) Dragging The Dow Down  Google

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Baltic Dry Index Predicts A Global Economic Slowdown

baltic dry indexI am scratching my head here (not really). According to most people in the mainstream, political and financial media the US Economy is on fire. At the same time, despite the appearance of this debt driven economic miracle happening in front of our eyes, at least the Baltic Dry Index (the index of global shipping costs) is not buying it.

The index is down 75% in a little over a year and is now hitting levels unseen since 1986. In other words, if this does not suggest a massive global slow down while piercing the bubble of “perceived” economic prosperity, I don’t know what will.

Need more evidence? Fine, how about this. In their biggest drop since May of 2009, Chinese imports have collapsed 19.9% year-over-year in January, missing expectations of a modest 3.2% increase. Their worst miss since the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. So, if the US Economy is so great, why is global trade collapsing? I don’t think it takes a genius to figure it out.

Z30

Baltic Dry Index Predicts A Global Economic Slowdown Google

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How I Missed The Exact March 2nd Top By 0.1%

Daily Chart AMarch 10th

3/10/2015 – A big down day with the Dow Jones down 333 points (-1.85%) and the Nasdaq down 83 points (-1.67%).

Going into the end of February my subscribers knew that we were facing a major turning point at the Dow 18,320 (+/- 50 points) and that it would occur on February 27th (+/- 1 trading day). If you are wondering, yes, +/- 1 trading day included March 2nd.

My advice was also rather simple, to go short right at the top. The actual top arrived on March 2nd at the Dow 18,285. In the final analysis I have missed it by 15-35 Dow points or 0.1%. Close enough. If you would like to find out what happens next, if this sell-off is over or just getting started, please Click Here.

In the meantime and as I write this, the talking heads on CNBC are trying to figure out what has caused this decline. Was it Greece…the dollar…..was it the good jobs report and anticipated rate increases?

Who cares!!!

While it is important to understand fundamental and technical metrics behind market moves, such indicators do a piss poor job in predicting what the market will do next.  As is the case today.

The stock market moves according it its own mathematical points of force. As it moves in multi-dimensional space with the DNA type of sequencing guiding the entire process. In other words, the stock market is a natural and alive system that moves according to its own growth pattern. As a human body would from the moment of fertilization to the moment of death. If you would be interested in learning more you can start here Timed Value. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 10th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

How I Missed The Exact March 2nd Top By 0.1% Google

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I Would Hate To Agree With Paul Krugman, But……

krugman

Economic charlatans like Paul Krugman is the reason the US Economy finds itself on the brink of disaster. No, Mr. Krugman, you can’t print your way to prosperity and I don’t care how many Nobel Prizes you have. You can create an impression of wealth through creation of debt and liquidity, but that always and inadvertently collapses.

It must be a cold day in hell, but I agree with Paul Krugman warns the Fed not to “yank away the punch bowl”  He is absolutely right. The US Economy and financial markets will reverse in a major way as soon as the FED raises interest rates. Yet, I disagree with the premise. The upcoming rate hike has nothing to do with inflation and has everything to do with re-loading FED’s tool set in time for the next recession.

The problem is, we are nearly there. Despite the recent all time highs in the stock market, the underlying economic indicators continue to deteriorate. The worst possible outcome for the FED is to find itself in a recession while interest rates are at zero. The thing is, that is exactly where we are today and the stock market might be finally waking up to that nightmarish scenario.

Z30

I Would Hate To Agree With Paul Krugman, But…… Google