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Hey Buddy…..Wanna Triple Your Money?

apple car

Here is a FREE stock tip. Buy Tesla (TSLA) today at incredibly speculative valuation of $25 Billion and sell it to Apple (AAPL) 18 months from now for $75 Billion. At least according to Jason Calacanis. Don’t believe me? Here is the analysis.

Perhaps Jason is right and Apple will buy Tesla at such a premium and you will be able to make a relatively quick 200% return on your money. It’s a crazy world after all and Apple certainly has the cash. But maybe, just maybe, this is an indicator of how out of sync with reality most investors have become.  I have a feeling that an upcoming bear market will cure this problem.

z33

Hey Buddy…..Wanna Triple Your Money?  Google

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Western Backed Ukrainian Government Is About To Fall

In cartoon: Ukraine in crisis

Last week I have suggested that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end. How Russia Won The War In Ukraine. With Russia and Mr. Putin emerging as clear winners. And with western backed illegitimate Ukrainian government and military on verge of collapse, it now becomes just a matter of time. Consider the following ……

In other words, for our investment purposes consider this conflict in Ukraine over. It’s just a matter of time before current Ukrainian government falls and another Russian puppet government takes place.  Whether it’s good or bad is outside the scope of this discussion. In the end, Russia emerges as a clear winner and this is the best possible outcome for the Ukrainian people (the war will be over).

Z31

Western Backed Ukrainian Government Is About To Fall Google

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Why Robert Shiller Is Wrong About The Bond Market Crash

Daily Chart February 17th

2/17/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 26 points (+0.15%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.11%) 

On January 31st I told my subscribers that the market might bottom and turn around at the Dow 17,050 (+/- 50 points) on February 3rd (+/- 1 trading day). The Dow hit an Intraday bottom of 17,038 on February 2nd and we are up a little over 1,000 points thus far. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here. 

I tend to find myself agreeing with Robert Shiller, more or less, about 50% of the time. For instance, I couldn’t agree more with his overall view on the stock market and today’s valuation levels Shiller’s back, and he has more depressing news  Basically, the stock market is an overvalued and highly speculative mess driven by massive capital infusion by the FED. And investors who believe that this upside trajectory can continue for the foreseeable future are deluding themselves. Just as they did at 2000 and 2007 tops.

With that in mind, I believe Mr.Shiller is dead wrong on his view in terms of bonds. Shiller warns bond investors: Beware of ‘crash’!  At least for the time being.

Here is why yields will continue to decline as the yield curve flattens further.

  1. The bond market is starting to see a severe recession and a bear market within the US Economy. Our mathematical and timing work confirms the same. Showing a significant recession and a bear market between 2014/15-2017. 
  2. Typically, 30-year bear markets in yield do not end in a V shape form. When such long moves complete they often set a secondary bottom (at least). This fits well within our overall economic forecast as we anticipate yields to set a secondary bottom over the next 2-3 years. In 2016 to be exact.
  3. There are a number of open gaps leading all the way down to 1.4-1.6% on a 10-Year Note. Again, it is highly probable yields will go there over the next 2-3 years.

In other words, our work suggests that bond yields are acting rational and will not crash over the next few years. The same cannot be said about the stock market. In fact, when we put all of the above together, it becomes evident that the US Economy and the US Stock Market are in real trouble going forward.

BTW: GARY SHILLING (not to be mistaken with Robert Shiller) AGREES: Buy bonds because deflation is here

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 17th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Robert Shiller Is Wrong About The Bond Market Crash Google

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Is It Time To Short Biotech (IBB)?

IBB

Since 2009 bottom or over the last 6 years Biotech ETF (IBB) has been one of the best performing financial instruments out there. Up +310% Vs the Dow +177%. The question is…..

Will this outperformance continue or are you better off shorting the index?

I would be the first to admit that the long-term technical picture for IBB remains incredibly bullish. Despite its fundamental overvaluation and high-risk investment opportunities typically associated with this ETF. With that in mind, at least the short-term picture is starting to deteriorate, demanding our further attention. 

For instance, the spike lower into February 4th low suggests that the index might be ready to go lower. Not that it will, that it might. Here is the bottom line. Whether you are long the index or thinking about going short, pay particularly close attention to IBB over the next 2-8 weeks. Should this ETF break below February lows, we might see a very quickly re-test of October lows (20% decline). And that wouldn’t be a bad short-term move on the short side. So, pay close attention.

z32

Is It Time To Short Biotech (IBB)? Google

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What You Ought To Know About Today’s Bearish Sentiment

bearish sentiment

The Nasdaq is approaching its benchmark print of 5,000 exactly 15 years after we saw it first in March of 2000. And while the Dow and the S&P are doing a little bit better, their compounded ROI of 2.7% over the last 15 years make Treasury investing over the same time appear genius.  Yet, you wouldn’t know it by reading financial press. According to most investors out there and despite today’s extreme overvaluation levels, this “secular bull market” (it’s not) is about to surge higher. For instance…..

“I don’t see too much concern because it really is a question of where else are you going to put your money. In a low-rate environment with concerns about Europe, Japan and China, U.S. equities are the preferred asset class.”  said Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer at S&P Capital IQ Global Markets Intelligence.

Yes, the old “no concern, where else are you going to put your money” garbage. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard that back in 2000 and 2007. The unfortunate reality remains. No matter how positive things might appear to look, the stock market can turn on a dime and begin its bear market at any moment. And just as we saw back at 2000 and 2007 tops, there doesn’t have to be a fundamental catalyst.

As the bearish sentiment chart above so clearly illustrates, when most investors find themselves on the same side of the trade, things tend to unfold in the opposite manner.

Z31

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Bearish Sentiment Google

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Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast

ALL NEW & FRESH: February 14th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics….

  • What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
  • COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
  • Swiss Frank, Australian Dollar, Interest Rates, Gold/Silver, Oil, Bond Yields, Copper, Agriculture, Natural Gas and what we expect to happen in these markets.
  • A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
  • And of course, much…..much more.

Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday. 

Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here

Z30

Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast Google

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What Stocks Are Top Hedge Fund Managers Buying?

duck tales investwithalex2

It is always important to know what stocks spark the fancy of some of the top money managers out there. The list below consists of the stock picks discusses at Pershing Square Capital Management’s (Bill Ackman) 2015 Harbor Investment Conference.

  • Thermo Fisher Scientific
  • Monsanto
  • Flextronics
  • McDonald’s
  • Valeant
  • Howard Hughes Corporation
  • NorthStar Asset Management
  • Liberty Media Corporation
  • Tesoro Logistics

And as always, do your own research before you pull the trigger.

z32

What Stocks Are Top Hedge Fund Managers Buying? Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Jon Stewart illustration“If I’d only followed CNBC’s advice, I’d have a million dollars today. Provided I’d started with a hundred million dollars”.   -Jon Stewart

z33

Investment Wisdom Of The Day  Google

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How Russia Won The War In Ukraine

NATO expansion2

I have said this since 2013 and I will say it again. There are only two reasons there is a conflict in Ukraine.

  1. NATO expansion.
  2. Russia’s willingness to go into an all out war (even nuclear war) to ensure that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO.

It is as simple as that. So, will the peace treaty hold? Well, if the EU/US/NATO stay out of Ukraine, you will see this conflict die off over time. Although an eventual regime change in Ukraine becomes unavoidable. In other words, Mr. Putin will once again setup a puppet government. To victor go the spoils.

Yet, if we see more sanctions, if we see the US military training Ukrainian army, if the US supplies weapons, if NATO continues its expansionary march……expect this war to re-ignite over night. With one primary difference. Ukrainian army is on a brink of collapse and it will be over fast. That is to say, expect Russian victory either way.

My “War Cycle Work” confirms the conclusion that this war in Ukraine will be over soon. What war cycle? The one discussed here Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why (Full Report) Basically, this cycle and its derivatives can predict every single war the US will fight.

Here is an example that I kept out of the report. The US entered World War 1 on April 6th, 1917. Exactly 84 years from that date (war cycle discussed in the report) brings us to April of 2001. Just 5 months shy of September 11th, 2001 and the start of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Make no mistake, the big war between Russia/China Vs. NATO/EU/US is coming. Just not yet. It will start in 2029 and it will literally devastate this planet.

Until that happens, Ukrainian conflict will go on a back burner and Russia will claim its victory. No other outcome is possible at this juncture.

Z30

How Russia Won The War In Ukraine Google