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Are We In A Bear Market Already?

Daily Chart January 29th

1/29/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 225 points (+1.31%) and the Nasdaq up 45 points (+0.98%). 

A number of articles worth your time today……

I agree with both authors. Here is another good  way to look at today’s market.  As you know, I don’t make it a secret that based on my mathematical and timing work the stock market will compete it’s secular bear market in 2017 (2000-2017).  I have very little doubt about that.

Now, given the upcoming bear leg of 2014/15-2017 do you think it is possible that the Dow will end 2017 below 2007 top of 14,280?

Based on my mathematical work not only it is possible, it is almost a certainty. Yielding another decade of no returns for long-term investors. In other words, given today’s massive valuation levels most investors would be well advised to sell now and go into cash. And while this might not sound as attractive as the stock market gaining 10% this year, it’s a hell of a lot better than taking a 20-40% haircut over the next 2 years.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 28th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Any New Thoughts On Apple After Earnings? – Daily Podcast

Listener Question:Any New Thoughts On Apple After Earnings? – Daily Podcast – Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions.aapl

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Any New Thoughts On Apple? – Daily Podcast Google

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Shiller Thinks You Are Scared & What Does The Dow Transports Index Tell Us

Dow Transport2

Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller thinks you are scared and that’s the primary reason the yields are collapsing. Scared of what might you ask? Well, the future, AI, terrorist, etc…basically everything. Everyone is scared: Nobel Prize winner Shiller

 “I think fears have been growing for years that represent the willingness of people to bid up bond prices,” he told CNBC Wednesday.” They are worried about their future. They are worried not just about next year, they are worried about the next twenty years, the next forty years. So they are desperately trying to provide for that, they’ll even accept negative yields.”

That’s quite an analysis. I have a different view. The yields are collapsing and the yield curve is flattening because quite a few smart investors see a massive asset bubble in equities, deflation, another ultimate round of QE, a big upcoming recession and at least a double bottom  in a 10-Year Note. I don’t think they are scared, on the contrary, I think they are smart.

Also, quite an interesting way to think about what the Dow Transportation Index is doing, its impact on the Dow theory and the overall economy can be found here. What the oldest stock market index is telling us

The author is absolutely correct. Despite the oil being down over 50% over the last 6-9 months, the Dow Transports Index had failed to move higher. Even though the companies within the index should be the primary beneficiaries of cheaper oil. This brings up a number of questions.

First, will oil prices have a net positive impact on our overall economy, just as most financial analyst believe? Thus far, the Dow Transportation Average is saying NO. Second, the Transports tend to be a leading indicator of economic downturns. Could it lack of enthusiasm for lower oil prices be considered as an ominous sign for the overall US Economy and the stock market?   I think you know the answer to that.

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Shiller Thinks You Are Scared & What Does The Dow Transports Index Tell Us Google

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The FED Decision, Apple, Yields & What The Market Is About To Do

Daily Chart January 28th

1/28/2015 – A big down day with the Dow Jones down 195 points (-1.12%) and the Nasdaq down 43 points (-0.93%). 

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here. 

A number of very important things to consider today. First, a very important fundamental/technical look at today’s market. Forbes: Watch These Interesting Stock Market Patterns Forming Right Now  I highly encourage you to study the article in great detail.

Dow Patterns

Second, today’s market action is incredibly important considering….

  • The FED decision to not change course.
  • Plunging yields.
  • Market’s inability to rally despite Apple’s blow out quarter.

You can look at all of the above in a number of different ways. It can be debated that the FED decision not to alter their eventual interest rate hike plan bodes well for the overall US Economy. At the same time, neither the yields nor the stock market are buying that premise. If anything they are flashing a red warning light. And since there is are no fundamental reasons for this massively overpriced stock market to rally, as earnings are not very good and the US Economy is rolling over,……….I wonder what happens next.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 28th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The FED Decision, Apple, Yields & What The Market Is About To Do  Google

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Is It Time To Buy The Russian Market & Ruble?

Listener Question: Is It Time To Buy The Russian Market & Ruble? – Daily Podcast – Listen to our short 5-10 minute podcast to find out. Plus, don’t forget to email me your questions.rsx

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Is It Time To Buy The Russian Market & Ruble? Google

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NATO Mercenaries Are Fighting In Ukraine & The Game Of Nuclear Chicken

In cartoon: Ukraine in crisis

I continue to write about Russia and the situation in Ukraine because I believe it is the most important macro economic development in at least 200 years. Not only will this impact the US stock market in a negative way, it might change all of our lives forever. In fact, it might very well  be that when the history books are written 50 years from now, this issue might be viewed as the most significant in human history. In the very same fashion the treaty of versailles is viewed today.

I assure you, the intelligence level of today’s politicians did not improve one iota from the idiots who started World War I and then created perfect conditions for World War II.

Do you want the real story of what is happening in Ukraine? I highly recommend the following article by MISH Email From US Special Forces Veteran; 500 US Blackwater Mercenaries in Ukraine? US Backs Ukrainian Neo-Nazis  He did a wonderful job putting things together.

In addition, consider the following news flow……

Did you catch the first article? Things are now getting very serious. Russia feels under attack and the US/EU/NATO are now playing a dangerous game of Nuclear Chicken. A game that I am afraid all of us will have to pay for. Sooner or later.

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NATO Mercenaries Are Fighting In Ukraine & The Game Of Nuclear Chicken Google

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The FED, Deflation, Gold, Oil and Other Commodities.

Daily Chart January 27th

1/27/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 291 points (-1.65%) and the Nasdaq down 90 points (-1.89%). 

Hedge fund manager Jeff Gundlach outlines a number of very important observations that I wholeheartedly agree with (watch the video below). Particularly……

  • We are in a deflationary environment.
  • The FED would be stupid to raise rates due to upcoming economic weakness, strong dollar and no inflation.
  • The only reason to raise interest rates in this environment is to re-load on future “recession fighting tools”.

Bingo!!! Despite zero interest rates and a massive credit infusion into our economic system in the form of QE, it is now becoming evident that the real economy is rolling over into a massive recession. If anything, the FED is too late. They should have started raising interest rates about a year ago. Now, they might be forced to raise interest rates into a double whammy of economic slow down and falling stock prices.

Here is the most important thing to consider when it comes to the stock market. I don’t believe the FED will alter their message in terms of raising interest rates over the next few months. And as investors begin to comprehend the unfortunate setup above (raising rates in a recessionary environment) all hell is going to break loose in the stock market. Finally, I believe it is only after a big sell-off that the FED might reconsider raising interest rates. Not before it.

Watch the video below as he continues to discuss gold, oil, etc… It is definitely worth your time.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 27th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Hedge Fund Manager Predicts A Record Breaking Sell-Off

It’s a sad state of affairs when a mere suggestion that the market might decline makes the news. Especially when you consider today’s extreme bubble valuation levels. Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey tends to agree. HEDGE FUND MANAGER ODEY WARNS: We’ve Entered A Downturn That Will Be Remembered In 100 Years

We’ve entered an economic downturn that is likely to be remembered in a hundred years and central banks won’t be able to stop it. Odey writes that the shorting opportunity “looks as great as it was in 07/09.” “My point is that we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09.”

An article worth your time as I couldn’t agree more. As you know, I have been warning about a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017 for well over a year now. It is coming and there is nothing anyone, including the FED, can do in order to prevent it.

With that in mind, I do want to ease your mind in one respect. The upcoming sell-off or bear market will not be as powerful as 2007-2009 decline. The collapse of 2008 was represented by a mid-cycle collapse reminiscent of 1972-74 or 1937 or 1907. The final leg of a secular bear market (2000-2017) is never as powerful.

That is to say, anyone expecting a 50% or more haircut here would be utterly disappointed. If you would like to find out what happens next and the extent of this bear market, please Click Here. 

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Hedge Fund Manager Predicts A Record Breaking Sell-Off Google