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Trade Of The Century?
Marc Faber is well known for his overall stock market and economic bearish outlook, a view I mostly agree with. His trade of the century? Gold and gold miners. And while I believe gold will go higher over the next few years, my mathematical work does not show 10X or 5X or even 3X appreciation that most gold bugs expect.
With that in mind, gold is not the primary reason for this post. Watch the video below and pay particular attention to how the financial news anchor interviewing Marc is literally laughing at what Mr. Faber has to say. Her attitude is not her own. It simply represents a prevalent view that 95% of investors out there share. In other words, most markets participants are incredibly bullish as they continue to expect this overpriced market to go higher. What can possibly go wrong?
Bulls Are Back…..Is It Time To Short?
1/21/2014 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 39 points (+0.22%) and the Nasdaq up 12 points (+0.27%)
The market continues to spin its wheels. In the meantime, the bulls are back with the vengeance, despite the Dow being down 3% since its December 26th top. Consider the following news flow.
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Why investors should be preparing for Nasdaq 5000
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Investors Are Most Bullish on U.S. Markets in Five Years: Bloomberg Poll
International investors are the most bullish they’ve been on the U.S. markets in more than five years as America is seen as a bright spot in an otherwise worsening global economy, according to the latest Bloomberg poll.
Same old, same old. The only reason America is viewed as a “bright spot” is because investors have not yet lost faith in the FED. Or I should say the massive liquidity fraud perpetrated by the FED. You can’t print your way into prosperity and once investors realize that, well, watch out below.
The cold hard truth remains. The stock market is in a massive overvaluation bubble. By any historical measure. Margin debt is at an all time high. Yields and commodities are collapsing (suggesting a big recession ahead). And as suggested above, bullish animal spirits are alive and well. As a result, investors should pause and ask themselves if RIGHT NOW would be a good time to reverse position and go short. At the very least, to go into cash.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 21st, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
What Are Your Thoughts On Netflix (NFLX) Now, A Strong Buy?
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What Are Your Thoughts On Netflix (NFLX) Now, A Strong Buy? Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Anti Russian Propaganda Index Hits An All Time High
The amount of anti Russian propaganda in the Western media is now truly staggering. Here is just a small sample from this morning.
- The Four Horsemen Of Russia’s Economic Apocalypse
- West trying to throttle Russia’s economy, overthrow Putin: Kremlin
- Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse
- Russia hits back at Obama over State of Union speech
- Lavrov on Obama speech: Efforts to isolate Russia will fail
- Russia ends US nuclear security alliance
Nice. I continue to maintain that out of all the stupidity coming out of Washington, this is the biggest issue most Americans don’t care about. They very much should. What most Americans don’t understand is that we have passed the point of no return with Russia. And while the hostilities might die off in the near future, depending on who our next president is, Russia will never forget this assault on their economy and their way of life. Make no mistake, Russia now sees the US as an enemy.
What’s more, you should pay a very close attention to the last article on the list. Arguably, the US and Russian nuclear security alliance was one of the most successful post Soviet era agreements between the two nations. It’s failure is not only troubling, it is a clear indication that we are now enemies. That is to say, we are right on schedule as per my earlier report Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why
Finally, even the biggest bully in the school yard knows not to pick on other bullies. A law of the jungle that was definitely not a part of the curriculum at the Harvard Law. Something that I am afraid we will all pay dearly for.
Are You Ready For A Bear Market?
1/25/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 4 points (+0.03%) and the Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.44%).
The stock market has been, more or less, stuck in a trading range since a very important PRICE/TIME juncture of July 17th, 2014. That’s exactly six months if you are counting.
The question becomes, is the market consolidating or are we about to breakdown?
Well, if you are to listen to mainstream financial media you would be assured that the stock market is just starting its secular bull run and it just a matter of a few short years before we see the Dow hit 40K. Unfortunately, I do not share in their enthusiasm. Consider the following.
- Collapsing yields and flattening yield curve suggest a massive recession ahead.
- Oil Prices continue to collapse. Down over 50% in just 6 months.
- Baltic Dry Index continues to slide while hitting multi-year lows.
All while stocks are selling at spectacular valuation levels reminiscent, if not higher, than 2007 and 2000 highs. I just don’t see how any sort of a secular bull can develop here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. January 20th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Grin Of The Day
As Russia’s oil revenue collapses, a new export is expected to make up the difference. Get Yours Today!!!
Is China Beginning To Collapse?
We have been talking about China’s “ponzi” economy for well over a year now. Here is just a small sample of our previous work Shocking: China’s Housing Collapse Is Already In Full Swing. It now appears that China’s massive fraud is beginning to unravels. Consider the news flow.
- China’s 2014 economic growth slowest in more than 2 decades
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China’s $20 Trillion Headache Underscored by Stock Swings
- The Scale Of The Chinese Real Estate Crash Is Terrifying
Here are just a few more bits that should scare the bejeezus out of you.
- Chinese corporate borrowers owed $14.2 trillion at the end of 2013 Vs $13.1 trillion owed by U.S. corporations.
- This means that as much as 10 percent of global corporate debt is exposed to the risk of a contraction in China’s informal banking sector.
- Cash flows and leverage at Chinese corporations are the worst among global peers, having deteriorated from being the best in 2009.
As I have mentioned in the past, most of China’s economic growth over the last 5-6 years has been financed by massive credit expansion. The likes of which we have never seen before. The result?
- $21 Trillion Debt Mountain. Roughly the same size as the entire US Banking Sector. It took the US 220 years to get to that number, it took China just 5 years of explosive credit growth.
- $6 Trillion In Shadow Banking. Actually, no one knows how large this number is. I have read good data/reports putting this number at $10-15 Trillion range.
- Empty cities, shopping centers, massive speculative bubble in real estate, built out infrastructure, rising cost of labor and export driven economy.
How much longer can this go on? Well, that’s a Trillion dollar question…..or a $40 Trillion dollar question. Apparently, it is already unraveling. Either way, one thing is for sure, this will not end well nor will it end in an orderly fashion.