InvestWithAlex.com 

Subscribe Today
My Account

Category: Invest with Alex

Posted on

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 30th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.66.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 71.12 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 63.54 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 90.3 – overbought. Daily at 68.11-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -10. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest has declined. Now at 70K contracts net long Vs 90K contracts last week. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 6X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 28th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.87.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 73.68 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 62.85 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 93.3 – overbought. Daily at 64.11-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +14. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was identical to last week. Now at 90K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased significantly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 17X short (vs just 4X short last week). That is a massive short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 26th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains above 21,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.87.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.84 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 63.54 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,650 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 94.5 – overbought. Daily at 68.11-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -2. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was identical to last week. Now at 90K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased significantly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 17X short (vs just 4X short last week). That is a massive short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 23rd, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is remains above 21,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.87.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.84 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 62.77 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,650 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 94.5 – overbought. Daily at 68.15-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -20. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was identical to last week. Now at 90K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased significantly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 17X short (vs just 4X short last week). That is a massive short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 22nd, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 14th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains above 21,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.86.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.57 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 68.82 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,650 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 97.49 – overbought. Daily at 92.67-overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +23. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly higher this week Now at 90K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 3.5X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 5X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 6th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 5th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is once again above 21,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.88.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 69.58 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 63.19 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 93.89 – overbought. Daily at 97.03-overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +27. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly higher this week Now at 77K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased slightly during the week. Once again, due to profit taking. We should expect higher short interest numbers at the end of next week. For now, the Dow is 3.5X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Posted on

Say It Ain’t So – Why The Stock Market Is Following 1929 Trajectory

Sentiment: Incredibly Bullish

Open any financial media outlet today and you will be greeted with the following nonsense.

Please note something of significant importance here. People are now making “sure bet” prediction about highly speculative bets. In other words, shoe shine boys are now sure “this thing” is going higher.

Valuations: Highest In History

As the charts above suggests, valuations are now above 1929 peak. In last week’s update I have argued that we are now sitting at the highest valuation level in history. You can see it here

Now, most bulls will argue that today’s valuation are justified by low interest rates. Sorry….

While there is much to debate about the current level of interest rates and future stock market returns, it is clear is the 30-year decline in rates did not mitigate two extremely nasty bear markets since 1998, just as falling rates did not mitigate the crash in 1929 and the subsequent depression.

Do low-interest rates justify high valuations?

History suggests not. It is likely a trap which will once again leave investors with the four “B’s” following the next recession – Beaten, Battered, Bruised and Broke.

Take that Warren Buffett

Presidential Election: Hoover Vs. Trump. Same shit – different name. 

On November 6th, 1928 Republican Herbert Hoover won the US Presidency. The stock market took off like crazy after Mr. President has offered the moon. Instead, what he delievered was a trade war that deepened the great depression. Trump, Trade Wars, And The Traumatic Example Of The 1930s. Sounds familiar?

Who said history doesn’t repeat itself. That is to say, replace Hoover with Trump and we have ourselves a perfect match.

Growth: What Growth? 

Now, I would be the first one to admit that today’s valuation levels can be justified if the US went on some sort of an economic or earnings growth spurt. Yet, as I have argued here On Friday The S&P Hit Its Highest Valuation Level In HISTORY – Find Out What Happens Next, that is nearly impossible. And I am not the only one who thinks that way. Consider this……

Don’t fight the FED. 

Finally, most bullish investors today will dismiss all of the above based on a simple premise. The FED will backstop any correction and/or flood the system with money in case of an emergency.

Perhaps they will and that might even work. At the same time, consider the following data point

But I think that if your investment mantra is “don’t fight the Fed”, you now must have a short bias to both the U.S. equity and bond markets, not the long bias that you’ve been so well trained and so well rewarded to maintain over the past eight years. This is a sea change in how to navigate a policy-driven market, and it’s a sea change I expect to last for years.

Make no mistake, an absolute bloodbath in equity markets is steaming our way. The only remaining question is…… when? If you would like to find out exactly when this sell-off will start, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here. Now, this post is already getting long and I need a drink, but you get the idea.

The main question remains…..what happens next? 

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.