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Junk Bonds Suggest A Market Sell-Off

daily chart ADecember 8 2014

12/8/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 104 points (-0.58%) and the Nasdaq down 40 points (-0.84%). 

The market continues to perform as anticipated. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here. Believe it or not, today’s marks the first “broad” negative day for the market since October 14th bottom. That’s quite an accomplishment.

With that said, most widely followed markets remains within a few clicks of their all time highs. And while that is certainly the case, the number of divergences AGAINST this market rally continue to pile up.  Perhaps the most important divergence can be witnessed in the Junk Debt market Here’s why some smart investors are worried

In short, while the S&P index continues to surge higher, the junk bond market is not buying it. Leading to a standoff that can only be resolved in one of two ways. Either the junk bounces and follows the market higher or the S&P is in for quite a correction.

junk bonds 3

Which way will we break? Well, with the S&P is pushing against a major resistance line and with the junk bond market approaching a point of technical breakdown, the market Gods are pointing their finger towards a major market correction.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Junk Bonds Suggest A Market Sell-Off Google

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Even The BIS Warns Of A Bubble. Are We Climbing The Wall Of Worry?

Wall Street bubbles

You know it’s bad when even the BIS warns that financial markets might be in an unstable bubble. BIS warns of market fragility despite bullish mood

The Bank for International Settlements warned Sunday that global financial markets appeared to be increasingly fragile despite bullish sentiment.

There two ways to look at this report. First, you can dismiss this view as a contrary indicator. Surely, when even the BIS begins to warn of a market bubble, we must be climbing the wall of worry. This view would suggest the market has another few years to run before any sort a correction occurs.

The other way to look at this matter is as follows. Things and valuations are so out of their historic norms that even slow moving organizations like the BIS can sport them. While I will let you come to your own conclusion, my view hasn’t changed. My mathematical and timing work suggests that we are about to embark on a massive bear market. If you would like to know when it starts, please Click Here. 

Z30

Even The BIS Warns Of  A Bubble. Are We Climbing The Wall Of Worry?  Google

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Whispering Stock Market. Are You Listening?

daily chart ADecember5 2014

12/5/2014 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 58 points (+0.33%) and the Nasdaq up 11 points (0.24%).  

A fairly good interview with Nouriel Roubini and I encourage you to take a look. As yours truly, Mr. Roubin believes that we are in a massive bubble. And while I agree with most of his views, one thing rubs me the wrong way. According to Nouriel, while we are in a massive bubble, it will not burst until 2016. Why 2016? Well, no real reason was provided and we might as well claim that this bubble will only burst in the year 2158 or tomorrow. Regardless, it is a good overall look at where we are today.

In the meantime, the yield curve continues to compress. Over the last few decades the yield curve has proven to be one of the best indicators of where we are headed. It is now signalling that a severe recession is just around the corner. And while the yield curve is a poor timing indicator, it works well when we combine it with today’s valuation levels. That  is to say, when the yield curve is compressing and you find stocks at historically high/extreme valuation levels, as they are today, it safe to assume that the market is topping out.

Yield Curve as of 2014 - Dec

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 5th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Whispering Stock Market. Are You Listening? Google

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The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why.

book - small coverI have argued since about this time last year that a new Cold War with Russia was starting. If you still don’t believe that the US is waging an all out economic war against Russia and its people, you are living under a rock.

With that said, here is what most Americans don’t understand. We have now passed the point of no return. Not in terms of going into an all out war against Russia (for the time being), but in terms of creating a real enemy. Putin and the Russian people will never forget this attack on their economy through the price of oil and destabilization of its currency. What’s worse for the US, this has unified Russia like never before. Consider the following….

Here is the bottom line. What you are witnessing today is a start of a new cold war that will eventually turn into an all out war. It will take quite a few years, but it will end badly for all of us. In fact, things continue to develop exactly as predicted in my newly published book (and previously published report) The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why.  Check it Out

Z31

The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why. Google

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Financial Advisers Now Shaming Investors Into Overpriced Equities

daily chart ADecember4 2014

12/4/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 14 points (-0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.11%). 

The market continues to perform as anticipated. Forget about that “good news is bad news and bad news is good news” stock market adage. We now exist in an alternative universe where everything is good news. Thanks to the FED. Consider the following stupidity.

I am not entirely sure why anyone pays attention to the ECB’s all talk and no action policy, but fair enough.  At the same time I am sad and discouraged that we live in the world where insane monetary policy is viewed as a solution to every slowdown. Where buying speculative assets and creating  massive worldwide equity bubbles is viewed as “stimulating the economy”. As Bill Gross says….”You can’t cure debt with more debt”. Crazy.

My initial reaction was……great…..financial advisers are finally doing their job by trying to warn their clients about today’s unsustainable valuation/speculation levels. NOPE. NOT EVEN CLOSE. They are shaming their clients for sitting on the sideline. That’s right, they are shaming people into investing at today’s exuberant valuation levels.

Just imagine a financial adviser pushing you to go LONG in January of 2000 and/or October of 2007 and you will have a clear understanding of what they are trying to do. You might be lucky enough to scrape a few % point of remaining upside only to see your portfolio suffer massive losses when a bear market finally rears its ugly head.

In other words, this is not going to end well.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 4th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Financial Advisers Now Shaming Investors Into Overpriced Equities  Google

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Deflation Vs. Inflation. Who Wins.

kondratieff-wave investwithalex

If you love economics, Deflation Is Going To Cause A Scary New Kind Of Debt Crisis article is a must read. It once again takes a look at where we are in terms of inflation vs. deflation debate.

I have been a strong proponent that the US economy has been in a “stealth” deflationary environment since at least the early 2000’s. I know there are a lot of people running around screaming inflation, but we must first define what inflation and deflation is. While there are many definitions, mine is …..Inflation is expansion of credit while deflation is contraction of credit. It is as simple as that.

The reason most people believe we are experiencing or will experience inflation and/or hyperinflation is due to the FED’s massive infusion of credit into our financial system over the last 10 years. Without it, we would have already seen concrete evidence of deflation throughout most sectors of the economy.

Here is the situation. Deflation is destruction of credit and subsequent decline of prices due to defaults, overcapacity and the looping trend that it generates. We have already started the process of deflation in two very important areas as per % of GDP. Financial and real estate sectors. In 2000-2003 and 2007-2009.

However, due to the FED’s criminal insistence on inflation at any cost, thus far, they have been successful in papering over any signs of a deflation by infusing massive amounts of credit and money supply into the US Financial system. As the article above confirms, such a move didn’t fix anything. Instead, it made matters worse and the upcoming recession more severe. With credit velocity now slowing down, more defaults and an all out deflation is unavoidable.

Z30

Deflation Vs. Inflation. Who Wins. Google

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Is Another Big Stock Market Correction Imminent?

daily chart ADecember3 2014

12/3/2014 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 33 points (+0.18) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.39%)

While Wal Mart CEO believes we have reached the state of perpetually growing economy, 2% to 3% growth feels perpetual: Wal-Mart CEO, the stock market might be on a verge of a big sell-off.

We all know the story. It is overpriced, overextend and very well could be in the bubble territory. MarketWatch tends to agree: Stock-market correction imminent.  A great look at some of the indicators through charts and I highly encourage you to take a look. Here are some noteworthy excerpts.

However, we are now at the stage where we these sell signals are beginning to occur — some already have and more probably will, within the next day or two. Does this mean the bigger rally is over, and one should heavily short the market? No, but it does mean that a sharp, but probably short-lived correction is at hand.

Yes, I am seeing the same thing 

In summary, the bullish indicators are running out of gas, and sell signals are beginning to occur. However, the positive seasonality of the Post-Thanksgiving time frame will likely limit the downside.

I do agree with most of the facts presented in the article in question, all except one. While I do agree that December is seasonally net positive, it is not a God given right for the stock market to rally. Major sell-offs have happened in past Decembers and it would be foolish to think that a major correction is impossible here. Certainly not after the rally that we’ve just had.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is Another Big Stock Market Correction Imminent?  Google