Nobody is ever satisfied. Poor men wish they were rich, rich men wish they were young and handsome, bachelors wish they were married, and married men wish they were dead.
ADP Disappoints. Another Chernobyl In Ukraine?
A number of important things for you to consider this morning.
First, despite claims of finally achieving an economic miracle and ever ascending stock market, ADP just had the worst miss since 2010. There were 208K jobs created Vs. 222K expected. Typically, November is seasonally strong month where we shouldn’t see such big drops. And that begs the question, are we at full employment or is the US economy on a verge of a massive recession? I think you know the answer to that.
Second, according to various media sources Ukraine nuclear accident (5th largest power plant in the world) ‘no threat’: Minister. This is definitely a story worth following as we might have another Chernobyl on our hands. Despite official claims to the contrary, you can never trust Ukrainian officials. If you recall, it wasn’t until a massive nuclear cloud reached Finland in 1986 that Soviet officials had to confirm Chernobyl’s accident. A week later. Let’s hope for the best here.
The Shocking Truth Behind Why So Very Few Are Making Money In This Stock Market
12/2/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 101 points (+0.57%) and the Nasdaq up 28 points (+0.60%).
Very few people are making money in today’s market. Even though most indices are sitting near their respective all time highs, hedge funds, arguable the smartest money out there, are liquidating at the fastest pace since 2009. Bloomberg: Hedge Funds Shut as Managers Struggle in Year of Two Percent Returns
The question is……why?
I believe there are two primary reasons. First, there is nothing to invest in. I mean “invest in” and NOT “speculate in”. Everything is extremely expensive and investing at today’s levels would bring unwarranted/massive risk to capital. Hedge fund managers understand that. Second, the FED has distorted financial markets so much that we operate in an environment where the markets never go down. The volatility is gone (as can be clearly seen with the VIX) and the trading rules that more or less worked over the last few decades no longer apply.
So, who is making all the money in this never ending bull market?
Interestingly enough it is the buy and hold investors who are completely oblivious to where we are today. The very same people who got destroyed in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. They see today’s valuation levels as acceptable, think we are in the early stages of a secular bull market and believe that every sell-off is a buying opportunity. Mom and pop 401K investors fall into this category by default. And while this strategy has worked over the last few years (thanks to the FED), it is just a matter of time before this strategy/view backfires…….BIG TIME.
Make no mistake, once the market resumes its normal operations, the gains above will very quickly turn into big losses. Just as they did after 2000 and 2007 tops.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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The Shocking Truth Behind Why So Very Few Are Making Money In This Stock Market Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” – Phillip Fisher
What Economic Warfare Looks Like
Conspiracy theories aside, it shouldn’t be too difficult to figure out what is going on in the oil market. In addition to underlying economic/market factors, the Obama Administration is now in an all out economic war against Russia. With collapsing oil prices being its weapon of choice.
As you can see from the chart above, there is no hint of a bottom or any sort of a reversal (thus far). How low can oil prices go……$50….$40….$30? No one knows and that’s the problem. As recent OPEC meeting showed, no one is willing to cut production. And while the Russian Economy has been on the receiving end of this deliberate Saudi Arabia/US economic attack, the pendulum is about to swing back.
Bloomberg: The American Oil Boom Won’t Last Long at $65 Per Barrel
The problem is, now that the market forces have taken over, it is impossible to say how low the oil will go. Should oil prices stay below $70 per barrel for any prolonged period of time, the US shale producers will be decimated. Along with tens of thousands of high paying US jobs. It is as simple as that. I guess that would constitute another victory for our clueless ruling class. A sad state of affairs.
Apple Loses $42 Billion In 53 Seconds. What Caused It?
12/1/2014 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 49 points (-0.27%) and the Nasdaq down 64 points (-1.34%).
As crazy as it may sound, the Nasdaq hasn’t had a correction of today’s magnitude since hitting its secondary bottom on October 16th. And while most market participates will dismiss today market action as a simple correction in this never ending bull market, perhaps they shouldn’t.
Today’s action in Apple (AAPL) is a perfect illustration of that. While everyone is trying to figure out why Apple (the most liquid and the most “amazing” stock ever) cratered close to 6% in 3 trading minutes…..This is why Apple shares sank earlier: Pros……a different question should be asked.
Can the overall market experience such a flash crash?
If there was ever a time to say “YES“, this is it. Massive overvaluation levels, rampant speculation, no bears, record bullish margin interest, tightening, collapsing yields, undying believe in Santa Claus rally, etc… You get the picture. Maybe not in 5 minutes, but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to find the Dow at October lows by the end of the year. As always, the stock market tends to do what most people believe is unlikely.
In other words, we might get a Grinch rally instead of a Santa Claus rally everyone expects.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 1st, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Apple Loses $42 Billion In 53 Seconds. What Caused It? Google
How To Become A Millionaire – Investment Grin Of The Day
Stock Market Secret Revealed: Join the FED, stop worrying so much and buy every stock under the sun.
As yields continue to collapse (suggesting a bear market ahead), mainstream financial media continues to view this as a net positive. No matter how outlandish and out of touch their premise is. Stock rally not done because it’s ‘game on’ for the Fed.
To spare you the details of reading the article above, the FED will not raise rates until and unless the job market improves and real wages accelerate higher. Until that happens, this liquidity driven stock market party will continue indefinitely. Perhaps.
Yet, as I have maintained for the last two years, interest rates are likely to collapse into their double bottom not because of the stronger economy, but due to a massive recession or a bear market that we are about to experience. Click Here To Learn More.
Make no mistake, the stock market is in a massive bubble and the bond market is flashing a clear red light. That is to say, whatever you do, just make sure you don’t follow mainstream financial media. Their advice? Just as at 2000 and 2007 tops, …….join the FED, stop worrying so much and buy every stock under the sun.
Worst-case scenario? An asset bubble bursts and the Fed, which has maintained zero rates for a record six years, has no policies left to influence the economy. Though, perhaps it’s best to stop worrying and follow the age-old wisdom that if you can’t beat (the Fed) you might as well join it. At least for now.
A sound strategy until a bear market kicks in and ones portfolio losses 30-50%
Are We Now In The Most Expensive & Speculative Stock Market Ever? The Answer Will Shock You
11/28/2014 – A flat day with the Dow Jones up 0 points (+0.00%) and the Nasdaq up 4 points (+0.09%)
While most people believe we are in the early stages of a secular bull market, I strongly disagree. In fact, if I had to describe today’s stock market in 2 statements and/or charts it would be……..
Grossly Overvalued: By most historic measures. As described two days ago, today’s valuation levels are now above 2007 levels. With only 2000 blow off top being higher. Yet, I would argue that such a view is not entirely accurate either. It does not account for massive amounts of credit that are in our financial system. If this factor is accounted for, I believe it would push today’s market above 2000 valuation levels. Making it the most overvalued market EVER.
Highly Speculative Powder Keg Ready To Explode: As the chart below suggests, everyone is long, fully committed and on margin. With the margin interest being 35% higher than at 2000 and 2007 tops, it is just a matter of time before a typical sell off turns into a massive bear market or worse…..an all out crash.
In Conclusion: Investors and central bankers often complain that it is impossible to spot bubbles and/or anticipate bear markets. If you can’t spot today’s bubble after looking at the charts above, well, I am afraid your head is firmly planted up your **s. Make no mistake, this will end in crocodile tears, just as it did after 2000 and 2007 tops.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 28th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Are We Now In Most Expensive & Speculative Stock Market Ever? The Answer Will Shock You Google
