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When Will The Dow Hit 20,000?

daily chart ANovember 4 2014

11/4/2014 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 17 points (+0.10%) and the Nasdaq down 15 points (-0.33%)

It appears the question on everyone’s mind is…..when will the Dow hit 20,000?  Why Dow 20K may take longer than you think

And while some perma bulls believe that it might happen by the end of this year, most remaining bears would sneer at the suggestion. Not that it really matters, but since you have asked…..

Based on my mathematical and timing work the Dow will first hit 20,000 in 2018. Roughly 4 years from now. If you are counting that would yield an annualized rate of return of about 3%. Better than the treasure yield, but still far from desired returns. What’s more, it won’t be as easy as most people believe.

Before reaching 20K, the Dow will go though a massive bear market of 2014-2017. It will be a complex market that will drive both bulls and bears up the wall of frustration. Just imagine massive sell offs followed by quick rallies and you have a fairly accurate picture of what will happen over the next few years. From where I am sitting and based on my work, only market timers and good traders will be able to make money in such an environment. If you are neither one, I suggest you click here.  

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

When Will The Dow Hit 20,000? Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Jim-Rogers-investwithalex“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It’s a basic fact of life that many things “everybody knows” turn out to be wrong.” 
― Jim Rogers

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Is True Deflation About To Start?

daily chart ANovember 3 2014

11/3/2014 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 24 points (-0.14%) and the Nasdaq up 8 points (+0.18%).

If you study Kondratieff cycle/wave you soon realize that periods of deflation are not only unavoidable, they are quite good for the overall Economy. A simple fact most central bankers and the FED Economists seem to dismiss. Even at the cost of destroying their own currencies and national economies in the process (yeah I am talking about you Japan).

Over the last few years I have maintained that we are in a “stealth deflationary environment”. That is to say, the real deflation was being masked by ZERO Interest Rates and Trillions of Worldwide QE stimulus. Bill Gross tends to agree Deflation is a growing possibility: Bill Gross

This is rather simple to understand. Massive worldwide stimulus is the only thing hiding real deflation. If taken away under “Normal Monetary Policy Guidelines” you would see most asset prices (real estate, stocks, commodities, etc….) declining in value. Given massive over investment and/or malinvestment in most productive sectors of the economy over the last 35 years, it would be the only logical outcome.

And no matter how much central bankers would like to avoid deflation at the cost of devaluing their own currencies, the final collapse and debt liquidation is unavoidable. Given today’s zero interest rates and maxed our QE/Credit velocity, I fathom we are about to finally witness true deflation. Well, either that or an all out currency war that Japan started on Friday.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. November 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is True Deflation About To Start? Google

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Lower Lows…..Higher Highs….Bull or Bear?

daily chart AOctober 31 2014

10/31/2014 – A big up day with the Dow Jones up 187 points (+1.09%) and the Nasdaq up 65 points (+1.41%). 

One can argue that we are in one of the most complex market environments over the last few years.  After all, consider the following…..

  • Most markets pundits strongly disagree on where the market is heading. And while some are calling for an outright crash others see the Dow 20,000 by the end of the year.
  • Most markets set a lower low on October 14th and higher high today. Confusing most market participants on which environment is at play. Bullish or Bearish.
  • No one is winning at this game except market timers. And while the bulls feel vindicated and bears destroyed, the situation was utterly reversed just 10 trading days ago. It might reverse again in the next 10 days.
  • The market rally from October 14th bottom has all of the trademarks of a bear bounce. Low volume, massive gaps, short covering, etc….. Then again, we have a higher high.
  • Top 10 fastest moving rallies of all time over the last 2 weeks. Good or bad?
  • The market is not allowing traders to take positions as most of the gains occur in the aftermarket.
  • QE is over, stocks are overpriced, Japan is attempting currency debasement, rampant speculation, etc….

I can go on, but you get the idea. The market can easily swing either way over the next few weeks/months.

So, which way will the market go next?

Unfortunately, I cannot disclose this information in a free forum. Yet, my mathematical and timing work displays a clear pattern the market will follow over the next few weeks. I can tell you this. No one is safe. Not a single bear or bull should feel at ease at this point in time.  Large market swings are coming. The joy of today might turn into tears of tomorrow and vice versa. That is why and where market timing becomes so incredibly important. If you would be interested in learning which way the market will swing next, please Click Here. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 31th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Lower Lows…..Higher Highs….Bull or Bear? Google

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John Hussman Expects A Crash……Should You?

daily chart AOctober 30 2014

10/30/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 221 points (+1.30%) and the Nasdaq up 17 points (+0.37%)

Fund manger John Hussman believes the stock market is about to crash. Outlining his view and providing a number of important charts in this worthwhile article HUSSMAN: I Think The Stock Market Is Crashing. According to him the setup of today’s market is almost identical to the pre 1929, 1973, 1987, 2000 and 2007 crashes. The only thing missing now is a roll over and a crash.

And indeed, his position is very well researched. Yet, we must always remember a very important fact. It is the market’s job to fool as many people as possible at once. Bulls and bears. For instance, most bullish investors couldn’t have imagined that the Dow would be 1,500 points lower just 18 trading days after setting an all time high on September 19th. Suffering enormously in the process. Just as most of the bears couldn’t have imagined that the market would retrace over 90% of the losses in a matter of 10 trading days.

Proving, once again, just how quickly the attitudes can change. That is why it is so foolish to maintain or commit to either bullish or bearish views. One should always move with the market despite what the overall fundamental view is. That is why timing becomes so incredibly important. It allows investors to rotate in and out at important turning points while avoiding losses associated with both bull and bear legs.  This approach will become even more important over the next few months.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 30th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

John Hussman Expects A Crash……Should You?  Google

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Goodbye QE…..Hello Bear Market?

daily chart AOctober 29 2014

10/29/2014 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 32 points (-0.19%) and the Nasdaq down 15 points (-0.33%). 

With QE now over, we are about to find out if it was the real economy that kept the stock market afloat or the monopoly money flow from the FED. At least this guy believes the market is heading higher Four reasons the market will rally for the rest of 2014. To spare you some time, here are his reasons…..

  • The market is too scared.
  • The US Economy is awesome.
  • Strong seasonality.
  • We will never have another 2008 recession/depression.

I only wish this article was around at October 14th bottom. Yet, he left out the most important fact of all. If Michelle Obama divorces Barack, that would add at least 2 points to our overall GDP growth.

On a more serious note, anyone who makes investment decisions based on such hogwash is bound to lose money. In reality, this situation is the most complex it has been in quite a few years. Consider the following. The stock market is in a massive speculative bubble, the yield curve continues to flatten (suggesting recession ahead), the FED just ended QE and we are overdue for a bear market. In other words, the risk is too high.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 29th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Goodbye QE…..Hello Bear Market? Google