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Trading Apple (AAPL)

AAPL

Continuation from yesterday…...To summarize, Apple’s stock price appreciated 3,700% (37 bagger) between its 2003 entry point and today. In fact, as our earlier analysis showed, we would have taken a position in Apple, Inc stock in May of 2003 at $2.50 a share.  Yet, it would not be an easy ride up. Over the last 11 years the stock had suffered a 60% drop in 2005, another 60% drop during the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and a 45% drop in 2012-2013. Leaving us, once again, with two primary questions.

  1. Would most investors be able to hold on to their Apple stock while going through such massive sell offs?
  2. Should investors trade out of their positions and even go short when such declines occur?

As discussed earlier, most investors would not be able to sustain such massive drops without first getting out. Most likely at exactly the wrong time.  That is why a proper application of set trading rules becomes so important. So much so, that in many cases it can easily double or triple the overall return on the underlying stock.  Easily turning Apple’s 37 bagger into a 60 bagger over the same time length. Let’s now take a closer look at Apple’s trading history to ascertain if we would have been able to trade in and out of the stock at the right times.

Our first significant decline in Apple’s stock price originated in February of 2005 at around $12.71 a share. The stock price then proceeded to collapse to $6 a share within a week, only to bottom at $5 a share a few weeks later.  Delivering a rapid 60% loss to Apple’s shareholders. Unfortunately and as mentioned earlier, fundamental analysis would not have helped us anticipate this collapse. We have rely entirely on our technical and mathematical/timing analysis in order to foresee such moves.

Between our May of 2003 entry point and February of 2005 top, Apple’s stock price had already ran up from $2.50 a share to $12.71, a 400% increase in little over a year and a half.  Even though the company’s iPod sales were surging as well, any investor should have been wary of his or her stock appreciating that much and over such a short period of time. Particularly, after Apple’s stock price went parabolic in mid 2004. It was a clear warning sign.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……..

Z31

Trading Apple Google

Buy The Dip…..The Market Is Never Going To Correct…..Right?

daily chart August 18 2014

8/16/2016 – A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 175 points (+1.06%) and the Nasdaq up 43 points (+0.97%).

As expected, according to the mainstream financial media the market bottom is in (after a miserly 5% correction) and the time to buy the dip is NOW. Why you should stop worrying and buy the dip

As the Chinese proverb says “We will see.” Since April of this year I continually suggested that the stock market was accumulating energy since about December 31st, 2013. Thus far, the market has accumulated enough energy for a fairly powerful move. Also, certain indicators show that this energy is being released into the market as we speak. Leading to higher volatility and volume. The question is…..will this energy force the market to stage a massive rally or an utter collapse.

While its impossible to tell with traditional analysis, my mathematical and timing work provide a clear answer. If you would be interested in learning what happens next as well as when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day), please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 18th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Buy The Dip…..The Market Is Never Going To Correct…..Right? Google

Investment Grin Of The Day

It’s Monday, we have to make fun of bankers……..

An investment banker said he was going to concentrate on the big issues from now on. He sold me one in the street yesterday.

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Bankers are people that help you with problems you would not have had without them.

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A man visits his bank manager and says, “How do I start a small business?” The manager replies, “Start a large one and wait six months.”

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If you owe the bank £100, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank £100m, that’s the bank’s problem.

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Hospitals report that the hearts of bankers are in strong demand by transplant patients, because they’ve never been used.

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Bankers never die…They just lose interest.

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What’s the problem with banker jokes? Bankers don’t think they’re funny, normal people don’t think they’re jokes.

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Investment Grin Of The Day Google

How To Survive The Upcoming Nuclear World War 3

survaval

Continuation from Friday……STEP #2: Find a safe location for your family.

This step applies to everyone, regardless of whether or not you live in a safe or impacted area. Just remember, you don’t want to be around population centers. Large or small. As was suggested above, societies throughout the world will deteriorate. Impacted or not.  As such, you want to be as far away from everyone as possible.  Separation from others will become your best weapon for survival.

Best Options If You Have Money and are Able to Move Around

Stick to Western societies. Essentially, you will have two options.

  1. Central Australia:  Scarcely populated, large open spaces.  And while coastal Australia will be nuked, this large body of land will not be impacted in its center. Making it a perfect location to setup a small household for your family to wait out the war.
  2. Central Canada (some parts of Alaska): If you prefer the cold, would like to remain in North America and don’t mind sharing your habitat with the polar bears, Canada is your best bet. While large population centers in Canada will be targeted, the rest of the country and its wilderness will be able to avoid the impact.

Contrary to a popular believe, the USA would not be a good place to wait out the war. For a number of reasons.   First, the U.S. will be the primary target in the nuclear war. If you are lucky enough to survive initial strikes, subsequent radioactive fallouts are likely to do you in. Second, the US is just too well connected for you to have the ability to be “off the grid” and far away from all major population centers. Finally, the US population is heavily armed and it will become violent once the society deteriorates.  Putting your family in an unnecessary danger.

Best Options If You Are Unable or Unwilling to Move Away From Your Home Country.

Yet, if you are unable or unwilling to move away from your home country, the following plan of action is your best bet. (Please Note: This applies to those who are willing to move as well).

  1. Locate an off the grid piece of land that is at least 300 miles away from any population center.  The more difficult it is to get there, the better.  Stay away from major roads. Make sure that a nearby clean source of water is available. Also, make sure that the land is fertile enough to farm on.
  2. Buy this piece of land. Do not buy it outright; get a loan if you can. By the time the war ends it is highly probable that neither your bank nor your IOU will exist.
  3. Build a simple one story house for your family and yourself. Just big enough to accommodate all of your needs. Try to hide or camouflage it the best you can.  Remember, you wouldn’t want to attract attention.  Even from the air.
  4. Build a small underground bunker/space on the property. Just in case.
  5. Rely on solar power as your primary source of power.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

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How To Survive The Upcoming Nuclear World War 3 Google

Trading Rules….Part 2

trading rulesContinuation from Friday…..Never Commit To Anything:  Never attach your forecast to any fixed outcome. If you do, you will shift from a position of power to a position of fear and hope.  Opening up your trading strategy to risk and losses. Instead, remain flexible and move with the market even if your forecast indicates otherwise.

Move Stop Losses:  As the market or stocks continue to move with the main trend you must continue to move your stop losses up or down to avoid unexpected developments and to protect your profits.  By doing so you eliminate the unnecessary risk of losing money.

Don’t Be Afraid To Be Out Of The Market:  There is absolutely nothing wrong with being out of the market completely.  Sometimes for prolonged periods of time. It is better to sit on the sideline than to lose money. Particularly, when the direction of the financial instrument you are looking at is unclear.

Don’t Wait Until The Trend Changes:  DO NOT hold your losing position in hope of a trend change.  That is how people lose most of their money.  For instance, the bears who have been holding short positions throughout 2013 have been decimated (even though they will eventually be right).  Once again, always move with the main trend.

Get Out As Soon As You Realize That You Have Made A Mistake:  Even if your in-depth research shows one thing, the market might do something completely different.   At such times you might realize that you have made a mistake.  Do not hold your position and hope that the market will reverse itself and allow you to exit at a better price. Liquidate your position immediately.

Always Wait For A Confirmation:  Do not establish a position until and unless your work is confirmed by the market itself.  In most cases the market will do so by setting new highs or new lows. Only after receiving such a confirmation should you establish a trading position based on the main trend of the market and/or based on your own work.

Avoid Hope & Fear: This is probably the main reason why people lose money in the stock market. They trade and/or invest on emotion rather than technical, timing or fundamental work. They hope, pray and fear instead of following the main trend.  Do not behave in such a fashion. Never trade based on hope or fear. Always follow the rules.

Avoid Loss Averaging: Contrary to a popular believe, it is not a good idea to buy more stock when the price declines after your original purchase.  Buying more at a discounted price means you are going against the main trend and not with it. While you lower the overall purchasing price, the main issue remains. The main trend is down. Instead, you should average up when the stock price is going up. That way you are going with the trend.

Now that we have looked at the overall guidelines to profitable stock market operations, let’s take a quick look at a simple set of specific trading rules.

Rules For Trading In Stocks

RULE 1: Buy at new high prices or old top levels.

RULE 2: Buy when prices advance above old low prices.

RULE 3: Sell when prices decline below old top levels or high prices.

RULE 4: Sell at new low price levels.

RULE 5: Wait to buy or sell until prices CLOSE above old highs or below old lows on the daily charts. Closing price is incredibly important.

RULE 6: Use stop losses. Your capital and your profits must be protected at all times with STOP LOSSES. Implement stop losses at 1-3 points above or below your original price and at the time of the original trade.

RULE 7: Do not lose money.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….

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Trading Rules….Part 2 Google

How To Avoid Stress

How To Avoid StressContinuation from Thursday…...While the example above is hypothetical, the STRESS associated with it is as real as it gets. Having gone through a similar experience myself, minus the Russian mobster, and having a number of friends collapse under similar circumstances, this IS about as much STRESS as any normal human being can take.  In fact, the STRESS energy becomes so overwhelming at that juncture that death and self destruction are literally inches away.

Again, while the example above represents an extreme and compressed version of STRESS and associated energies, it is something that all of us deal with on the daily basis. Whether its work, family, personal life or something else.  And while our daily STRESS levels might be spread out over an extended period of time, unlike the stock market example above, at the end of the day we all suffer the same.

Is there anything we can do to separate from this emotional rollercoaster?

Absolutely.  In order to stop STRESS energy in its tracks, before transforming it, three things are necessary.

  1. A strict set of rules.
  2. Living in the NOW.
  3. Separation, Control & Meditation

Implementing a Strict Set of Rules

Let’s go back to our stock market example for a second.  It was entirely unfortunate, but Jimmy’s downfall was sealed long before he bought a single share of that stock.  As most of us, Jimmy operated on human emotions and feelings. Greed, fear, hope, desire, anger, joy, sorrow, etc….. He was not in control. His research gave him a false sense of security as he hoped that the stock in question would continue to go up indefinitely. He never considered nor prepared for a possible loss. A sure recipe for disaster.

Most human beings operate in exactly the same fashion in their everyday lives.  They are like leaves in the wind. A little gust to the left and their entire day goes sour. A little to the right and they are as happy as they could be. Without even realizing the fact. Relying entirely too much on external circumstances, outside stimuli and their emotional states as opposed to paying attention to what is really happening in their lives. That has to change if people are interested in removing STRESS energies from their lives.

One of the first requirements in doing so is to set a strict set of rules in an environment that brings STRESS into your life.  For instance, Jimmy J. could have prevented his predicament with a few simple rules.

  • Jimmy’s Rule #1: Implementation of strict trading rules. Without room for any sort of deviation.
  • Jimmy’s Rule #2: Setting a firm price (based on his analysis) or a stop loss order at which Jimmy would have liquidate/sold his position.

Not only do these strict trading rules take all the guess work out of the equitation, more importantly, they remove emotions and feelings out one’s decision making process. Removing STRESS energies in the process. For example, let’s assume that Jimmy’s trading rules clearly instructed him to sell his position in stock XYZ if its price hit $9 a share. If Jimmy would have had this clear understanding from the beginning, he would have been acutely aware that his losses would be limited to $100,000. In the worst case scenario. Removing uncertainly and therefore STRESS from the picture.

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It is important to note that such “Rules” must be exact and without any room for deviation. Typically, your mind and your emotions will play cruel tricks on you if you do leave room for deviation. Going back to Jimmy, if he would have left room for any sort of divergence, he would found himself in the same place where he actually ended up.

Allow me to illustrate just how cunning the mind can be if Jimmy deviated from his iron clad rule of selling at $9 a share.

  • The stock price hits $9 a share.

Jimmy’s Cunning Mind:  Well, let’s wait until the stock hits $8.50. My technical setup shows that it cannot possibly go lower. If I sell now, I will lose $100,000. I am sure the stock will bounce back to $13 in a few days. Its option expiration date. The stock market always does that.
Outcome: Jimmy does not sell.

  • The stock price hits $8.50 a share (STRESS levels are going up).

Jimmy’s Cunning Mind:  It can’t possibly go any lower. These sellers are fools. This is at least a $30 stock. I am going to hold. I am sure it will turn around tomorrow.
Outcome: Jimmy does not sell.

  • The stock price hits $7.00 a share (STRESS levels are now extremely high).

Jimmy’s Cunning Mind: This is F*$# stupid.  There is no reason for this stock to go this low. I wish I had another Million. I wish I could buy more. If I did I would make a fortune.
Outcome: Jimmy does not sell.

We all know what happens next. Point being, Jimmy J. was too lenient on his own rules. What started out as an innocent $0.50 cent deviation, ended up in an absolute disaster.  And this is the KEY point you must be aware of.  First, you MUST NOT deviate from your original set of rules. No matter what. Come hell or high water, you MUST stick to them. Second, you MUST be aware that your mind will begin to play tricks on you. It will ask for just a little bit more, an inch, a penny, a feather in order to push the underlying situation just a tiny bit further. Opening the gates of hell in the process and bringing STRESS energies back into your life.  Just remember, be firm and unabated; stick to your Rules, always and as if your life depended on it.

To Be Continued On Monday…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

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How To Avoid Stress  Google

George Soros Is Expecting A Market Crash…..Should You?

daily chart August 19 2014

8/19/2014 – Another up day with the Dow Jones up 81 points (+0.48%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.43%). 

As ZeroHedge Reports: “Soros Put” Rises To Record: Is The Billionaire Investor Betting On Market Crash?

Soros has once again increased his total SPY Put to a new record high of $2.2 billion, or nearly double the previous all time high, and a whopping 17% of his total AUM.

While a portion of this position is a hedge, it is now too big to be “just a hedge”. In other words, while your typical CNBC money manager Yahoos run around proclaiming that the market is on the verge of a “Once In A Life Time Surge”, market legends such as Soros and Icahn are getting ready for a major decline. I suggest you do the same.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

George Soros Is Expecting A Market Crash…..Should You? Google

Create Killer Business Ideas While Meditating

business meditationContinuation from yesterday……

STEP #7:  Create an “Idea Soup” Matrix

This is an extremely powerful approach and one of my favorite ways to generate amazing ideas. Create a matrix of sorts with 10 to 20 or even 100 different words, industries, businesses, etc… spread across the page as a matrix. For instance, one square would have a word “robotics” in it while another square might have a phrase “fast food” in it. Here is just a small example.

Business Cards Smart Phone Kitchen
Cloud Boxing Car
Chemical Engineering Revolution Dog
Candle Beautiful Girl Stapler
Sandwich China Medical Center

What you would have to do next is very simply. Go through the matrix and randomly combine different words, businesses or industries in order to create unique combinations.  In this instance, you can combine fast food and robotics and begin think of various business ideas that bring robotics into the fast food industry. At the end of the day, there might be nothing there but a lot of wishful thinking. At the same time, by combining these unique concepts you might be able to think of something that can eventually turn into that “huge payoff” idea.

As was mentioned earlier in the book, this sort of an approach will allow you to combine various concepts that were otherwise unrelated. Giving you the ability to come up with some interesting and crazy ideas that you might have never discovered otherwise. How else can you come up with an idea for “Dog Candles” or “Medical Centers in China”?   Plus, it’s a ton of fun.  The best thing about these matrixes and why I like using them so much is the fact that they…

  • A. Are easy and fast to create (no more than 10 minutes).
  • B. Help you generate original thinking.
  • C. Offer an infinite number of unique possibilities.

Plus, if you already know what industry or area you would like concentrate on, you can tailor your matrix to do just that.  You would do so by tailoring the keyword mix to your specifications. For example, if you would love to concentrate on the coffee industry you would populate 50% of your matrix with coffee related keywords while keeping the other half random. This type of a mix will produce the best possible result.

STEP #8: Meditate

While dismissed by many, this is one of the best ways to generate brilliant business ideas. Ideas that will literally knock your socks off.  Yet, you have to approach the process with one slight adjustment. At least in this case, meditation for the sake of meditation will do very little to help your cause.

You must first complete Steps 1-7. Then meditate on the information gathered or created in those steps. Meditate on the industry or the company specific information, on various products, on your research and on various business ideas you were able to come up with during the process.   As you meditate, you mind will connect the dots in some unexpected ways.  Yielding some powerful ideas in the process. It is highly encouraged that you allocate 15 minutes a day to this practice, particularly, if you are in the process of generation new ideas.

To Be Continued On Monday…...(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Z31

Create Killer Business Ideas While Meditating Google

Which Countries Will Escape The Nuclear World War 3

bunker

Continuation from yesterday……Keep in mind, the survival of your family should be your number one priority. To accomplish that you have to do the following.

Survival Blueprint:

STEP #1: Research & Select a Country Where You Will Stay

If you have the ability to travel anywhere in the world with your family, determine which country or area is your best bet.  While some parts of the world will be utterly annihilated, other will be able to make it through the ordeal without a scratch. Relatively speaking.

  • Areas That Will Be Destroyed Through Direct Strikes and Subsequent Radioactive Fallouts:  

Russia, China, Japan (most of Asia), all of Europe, the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, most of the Middle East.

  • Areas That Will Be, More or Less, Spared

Parts of the South Pacific, Central Australia, parts of New Zealand, Central Africa, Central and South America’s.

If you live in a country that will face the brunt of the attack, you might want to consider moving your family to locations that will escape the worst of it as 2030 approaches and the war begins.  If you already live in the above mentioned countries, you are well ahead of the curve. At the same time, not many people can just pack up and move their entire family across the world.  If that is the case, consider the following.

STEP #2: Find a safe location for your family.

This step applies to everyone, regardless of whether or not you live in a safe or impacted area. Just remember, you don’t want to be around population centers. Large or small. As was suggested above, societies throughout the world will deteriorate. Impacted or not.  As such, you want to be as far away from everyone as possible. That is your best bet for survival.

To Be Continued On Monday…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

z32

Which Countries Will Escape The Nuclear World War 3 Google