timing is everything

August 15, 2014August 15, 2014

An Important Set of Simple Trading Rules

trading rules

Continuation from yesterday…….An appropriate trading approach and a number of fixed trading rules is just as important, if not more so, than your overall technical, mathematical and fundamental analysis. In essence, by implementing strict trading rules and procedures you are able to take all of the guess work out of the equation. In other words, strict trading rules make sure you pull the trigger exactly where you should.

The rules below are based on a simple strategy of getting in and out of various stocks at the right price and time.

Avoid Low Priced Stocks: While it is possible to make large amounts of money with such stocks, for the most part, cheap stocks remain at low levels for extended periods of time. At times forever.

Avoid Slow Trading Markets and/or Stocks: These are the financial instruments that are stuck in a trading range. Do not invest in them until and unless the trend is broken, either to the upside or to the downside.

Concentrate On Fast Moving Markets and/or Stocks: This is where most of the money is made over the shortest period of time.

Never Guess: Take the guesswork (gut feeling) out of your decision making process. Develop strict trading rules that are followed 100% of the time. You should never guess if you have got it right. Let the market and/or your trading rules put you in and take you out.

Always Follow The Main Trend: You will always make money if you follow the main trend. Either up or down. Remember, stocks are never too high to buy if the stock market is going up and they are never too low to sell if the trend is pointing down.

Always Use Stop Losses: I cannot overstate this enough. Always use stop losses to protect your capital. Let the market prove if you are right or wrong. In the meantime, your capital base will remain safe.

Buy At New Highs: Believe it or not, but buying at new highs is the most profitable way to make money in the stock market. Most people believe that they must buy at the lowest price or in the valley. That couldn’t be further from the truth. By buying at the new high you are moving with the main trend.

Sell At New Lows: In a similar fashion, selling or selling short at new lows is the best possible way to exist a stock. It confirms that the trend has changed while giving you the ability to exit your trade at a good price. More importantly, it allows you to trade with the trend and not against it.

To Be Continued On Monday….

An Important Set of Simple Trading Rules Google

August 14, 2014

Why Can’t Everyone Just Show Love For This Bull Market

daily chart August 14 2014 8/14/2014 – Another up day with the Dow Jones up 62 points (+0.37%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.43%).

I am beginning to think that Caligula was right. Here you go ladies and gentleman. Apparently this bull market is so hated right now that it will not end until everyone gets on board. I tell you, that sounds like an amazing investment strategy. As the guy says, “An amazing and glorious run up is just around the corner.”

Unfortunately, I do share in the optimism. This conclusion is based on my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Can’t Everyone Just Show Love For This Bull Market Google

August 14, 2014August 14, 2014

Why You Should Avoid “High Tech” In Your Next Business Venture

future-technology

Continuation from yesterday…….STEP #6: Be Wary of the High Tech Ideas

In relative terms very few people build their fortunes from the high technology field. Most of the time it’s the true and tried methods of starting any kind of a business and growing it from nothing into something. As you very well known, that takes a lot of hard work, perseverance, patience and even luck.

Unfortunately, all we hear about is Google, Apple and hundreds of other high technology companies that have made it big. Don’t pay any attention to that. The technology space at the highest level is very unpredictable. You have just about as much of a chance of starting the next Microsoft or the next Instagram as winning a lottery. Instead, you will have a much better chance in concentrating on using new technologies in existing and proven business models.

For most of us, it makes perfect sense not to be a fore runner. The risk of failure is just too high when you are trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t. What will be accepted by the marketplace and what will fail. While the draw of making millions from the high tech field is always there, never forget, most fortunes are made the old fashioned way….Hard Work.

One of my previous business ventures, ExpertZoo.com is a perfect illustration of that. We first started to develop the concept in 2007. We thought that we had a great idea. A social business network that would facilitate transactions and interactions between businesses/experts/service providers and consumers. In essence, a mix between LinkedIn, Yelp, Yellow Pages and Amazon. While it was a great idea and it did generate traction in the early days, we could never make it work.

In retrospect, the concept failed due to a number of things. First, we made the overall website and our product offering way too complicated. We have tried to be everything to everyone and that tends not to work very often. Second, we hired a large sales force and spent way too much money on marketing before ever proving the validity of our concept. Finally, we incorrectly assumed that people will both understand and fall in love with our service. While such short comings are easy to see now, we were not able to figure it out while we were attempting to grow the company.

Point being, if your field is a high tech one and that is what you would love to do, it would only make sense for you to do so. The warning above is geared more towards those who do not have a technology background, yet would love to make millions or billions from the field. Chances are…..it will never work.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Why You Should Avoid “High Tech” In Your Next Business Venture Google

August 14, 2014

Investment Grin Of The Day

z24

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

August 14, 2014August 14, 2014

What To Do When The Nuclear World War 3 Hits

war is for idiots

Continuation From Yesterday……..Fortunately, it is possible not only to avoid the carnage and subsequent struggles, but to position yourself as a beacon of hope for future generations. Yet, before that happens you MUST survive.

Survival Requirements:

STEP #1: Do NOT join or affiliate yourself with any sort of a military branch. If drafted, dodge it.

Whether you live in the US, Russia, China or Timbuktu understand one simple truth. War is for idiots. As Herbert Hoover so famously said, “Older rich men declare war, but it is the youth that must fight and die.” I oftentimes look in disbelief as people around the world continue to kill each other over a piece of desert land that has no value or some superficial belief that has room in today’s society. Freedom, liberty, honor, beliefs, flags, patriotism, pledges, religions, national service, neighborhoods, borders, nationalism, etc….. All meaningless keywords and ideals created by the “Older Rich Men” to lead “Younger Fools” into battle.

Further, clearly understand the following. If you feel extra patriotic and end up joining a military service of any kind, you will not be coming back. No one will be coming back from this war. It is as simple as that. As such, avoid military service at all cost. If drafted, dodge it. Get out of the way and let the fools fight and die at the hands of their own ignorance.

STEP #2: Find a safe location that is far from major population centers.

As was mentioned earlier in the book, most major population centers throughout the world will be nuked. If you live in the city with a population of over 1 Million or if you live near any sort of a military installation, chances are, you are on somebody’s target list.

For instance, while I tend to travel extensively and live around the world, my home base is in San Diego. With a population of over 3 Million people and a number of massive military bases at Miramar, Camp Pendleton and Coronado, San Diego is definitely getting nuked. Multiple times. In other words, when the war finally starts and accelerates (after 2030) you don’t want to be anywhere close to such a city.

Further, you don’t want to find yourself in small population centers either. As a matter of fact, if at all possible you don’t want to be around people at all. Once the order breaks down and the society falls into disarray you might find yourself in situations that were unthinkable just a few years before. Looting, violence, murders and rapes, food scavenging, cannibalism, etc…. All sorts of crazy things will happen as society deteriorates and falls into darkness. If you are smart enough you wouldn’t want to be anywhere close to that.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

What To Do When The Nuclear World War 3 Hits Google

August 14, 2014

How To Generate 80,000% ROI In 15 Years

Continuation from yesterday……….This caution would have been well justified. Keurig’s stock price topped out in August of 2011 at a little over $100 a share and then distributed for a few weeks before starting a major leg down. An investor in the stock should have liquidated his long position and gone short at $80 a share. It was at that point that the company’s stock price broke below its previous low, suggesting further downside. The stock price continued to collapse until it hit bottom in July of 2012 at $17.50 a share. Delivering a gut-wrenching 84% loss in the process.

GMCR Trade #7: Exit our long position at $80 a share while going short at the same price/time. Realized profit from the previous entry point…… $70 or 700%. Overall profit $78.25 or 31,200%

By mid 2012 and after its 84% collapse, Keurig’s valuation levels were, once again, more than reasonable. If anything, the stock was selling at a substantial discount considering its future growth potential. In addition, the stock trended down for exactly one year. This represents an important stock market cycle. Finally, given the extent of the collapse, one year time cycle and general undervaluation, an analyst following the stock should have been looking for trend reversal. This reversal was confirmed in November of 2012 when the stock price broke above its previous high at around $33 a share. A trader should have covered his short position and gone long at that point in time.

GMCR Trade #8: Cover our short position at $33 a share and go long at the same time. Realized profit from the previous entry point…….$47 or 59%. Overall profit $125.25 or 50,000%.

After hitting its bottom, Keurig’s stock price realigned with the overall market and staged a massive rally to $125 a share. Which brings us to today (8/14/2014 – $114) and the overall gain of $206.25 or 82,400%. Making this stock an 824 bagger or almost doubling our original gain.

GMCR7

Today, Keurig’s stock price finds itself at the same juncture it was back in 2007 and 2011. While the company is doing very well, its valuation levels are once again out of sync with reality. What’s more, the overall stock market is in its own overvaluation bubble and on the verge of another bear leg. In fact, any investor in Keurig should be following and watching the stock very carefully here. Looking for various signs that the top is in. Further, said investors should consider exiting the stock and going short once again as soon as the previous low of $90 is broken on the downside. Riding this stock down again before reversing course and going long at the next bear market bottom.

Before we analyze Apple’s trading history, let’s take a quick look at some of the trading rules we must comply with.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……..

How To Generate 80,000% ROI In 15 Years Google

August 13, 2014August 13, 2014

How To Control Stress & Fear In Your Life

Continuation From Monday………Unfortunately, Livermore did not follow his own advice and strict trading rules. He claimed that his lack of adherence to his own rules was the main reason for his losses. After losing his billion dollar fortune in the mid 1930’s, he was never able to bounce back. Faced with the prospect of never again recovering his losses and after publicly admitting to his failure, he committed suicide in New York in November of 1940.

What does any of this have to do with STRESS and associated energies?

Everything. The reason Livermore lost both of his fortunes had very little to do with his abilities as a speculator and everything to do with his emotional state and his inability to control his STRESS energies.

For instance, the example below represents a typical trader’s mindset and various STRESS emotions associated with unsuccessful speculation. Please note, the same STRESS emotions are present in everyone’s life. In one way or another. It is just that the stock market example below gives us the ability to look at the subject matter in a compressed fashion. In other words, while an adverse stock price movement can take 6 hours to play out, your STRESS filled situation at work might take 2 years to play out. Yet, the underlying energies and pressures associated with both are the same.

stock market cycle

EXAMPLE: Let’s assume for a second that the chart above represent the movement of the stock (XYZ) over a 15 day period of time. Let’s also assume that a hot shot traded named Jimmy J. has been following this stock for two months. The stock has been doing incredibly well, gaining 50% in value over the last two weeks alone. Jimmy is “exhilarated” as he plunks down a cool million to buy 100,000 shares at $10 each.

Day 1-5: The stock price goes up another $2 or 20%. Jimmy J. cannot contain himself. He is walking around the office and telling everyone that he just made a sweet $200,000 in 5 days. His ego is overinflated and there is no whiff of STRESS around him. On the contrary, Jimmy is so confident in his stock picking ability that he fancies himself as a genius on par with Einstein.
Day 6-10: The stock price tops out at $13 a share and begins to decline rapidly. By day 10, the stock price hits $7 a share. Jimmy has now lost $600,000 since the stock topped out and $300,000 of his original capital. Jimmy is now in “denial”. Instead of running around the office and telling everyone how successful he is and what color his new Ferrari will be, Jimmy J. is freaking out. He is stressed out beyond belief. He cannot afford to lose another penny. The amount of pressure, fear and stress he now feels is unreal. After all, Jimmy borrowed that million from a Russian mobster Ivan Petrovich Zubov and he knows all too well what happens to those chumps who do not pay. After double checking his fundamental and technical research Jimmy is sure the market is wrong. Its Friday night, Jimmy J. feels a little bit better as he is now sure the stock price will recover next week.
Day 11-15: A SEC investigation is announced. The stock price quickly collapses from $7 to $3 a share. Jimmy J panics and then finally sells his position at the bottom or $2 a share. The amount of STRESS & FEAR Jimmy feels at this juncture is unimaginable. After double checking his account, Jimmy is $800,000 in the hole. As he contemplates his next move, his cell phone rings. It’s Ivan Zubov and he needs his money back +50% next week. Jimmy J is so STRESSED by this point that he is now seriously considering one of two options. A quick jump out his 27th story office window or a one way ticket to go live in the mountains of Zimbabwe.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

How To Control Stress & Fear In Your Life Google

August 13, 2014August 13, 2014

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Market Environment

daily chart August 13 2014

8/13/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 91 points (+0.55%) and the Nasdaq up 45 points (1.02%).

The stock market continues to perform as anticipated. I am sure you have heard before that it is the stock market’s job to fool as many people at once at possible. It is true. And given today’s prevailing view on the Street, what is the worst possible thing that can happen? First, this is how most investors see today’s market.

Liquidity is plentiful. Global financial conditions are the best they’ve been in four years, the strategists note. Moreover, global companies have tremendous amounts of ready cash to spend on organic growth, acquisitions, share buybacks and dividend hikes.Corporate profits are solid. Both top-line and bottom-line growth rates are picking up, and more companies are participating in this expansion. Stock valuations are attractive, and Wall Street sentiment is encouraging. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trades at a forward P/E multiple of just over 15, in line with its historical average. And the firm’s contrarian Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ recommended portfolio allocation, shows that market experts are even more bearish than they were in the worst of the 2008-2009 financial crisis — which is, in fact, a bullish sign.

Right!!! In other words, buy everything in sight. The Dow will be at 40,000 by the end of the year.

Yet, the question remains. Given the prevailing view, what is the worst thing that can happen? A bear market….a crash…..aliens landing on the White House lawn or the Dow surging to 100K? While you can try to figure it out on your own, you can also rely on my mathematical and timing work. With my subscribers being aware of not only what happens next, but WHEN. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Market Environment Google

August 13, 2014August 13, 2014

What To Do When You Need Brilliant Ideas

business_ideas2

Continuation from Monday………Quick Note: Be careful of what you read in various trade publications or magazines. A lot of the time authors do a fairly poor job putting that information together. Plus, they might not be as well versed in the topic as they should be or they might be more concerned about hyping up certain products. Instead, once you have identified a product or a service, go to the root of the matter. Various public companies in question. Read and study their annual and quarterly reports. Look at the actual sales numbers to see what is selling very well and what is not. Which product lines are growing and which product lines are dying.

To find this information, apply the following steps:

Step #1: Identify which company sells the product or service in question.

Typically, such information is freely available on the packing itself. Still, if you are unable to find this information, please Google “who makes/offers/manufactures (product name)”

Step #2: Find out if the company in question is a public company.

You can easily do so by going to either to http://finance.yahoo.com/ -OR- https://www.google.com/finance and typing in the name of the company in the search box located at the top.

If nothing comes back, it means that the company you are trying to research is either a private company or it is a subsidiary of a larger corporation. If it is a subsidiary, find out what company owns it and repeat Step #2 for the parent company.

If the company is public, you are in business. You can access their quarterly and annual reports in one of two ways.

First, search for and visit their website. Typically, they will have an Investor Relations section link readily available on their home page. Visit this section and look for recent presentations and annual reports. This would be your best source of information.
If you unable to find the Investor Relations section go to http://www.sec.gov/ and type in the company’s name into an upper right hand corner of the website. All public companies are required to file their reports and you will find it there. For company’s annual report, select the most recent 10-K link available.

Complete the process by studying all available information as it pertains to the industry and/or products or services of your choice.

Step #3: If the company in question is not a public company.

We have to start with the presumption that we will not be able to gather as much insider information as we would have if it was a public company. Yet, it is not all bad news and there are a number of ways around the problem. Here is what you can do.

Find a competitor or a company within the same industry that is a public company. Study their financial reports instead.
Read consumer review and feedback on various portals such as Amazon.com in order to ascertain both the popularity of the product and its future potential.
Visit a retailer carrying the product/service and talk to a salesperson. Ascertain their point of view and ask what their existing customers are saying about the product.
Call the company and pretend to be a large buyer. Determine if they have ready to ship inventory or if the demand for the product is so high that you will have to wait. Try to gather as much insider information as possible. While this step is somewhat unethical it will allow you to confirm the information gathered from other sources.
Seek out trade publications and other media that have recently reported on the company.

After doing all of the above you should come fairly close to having a complete analysis of the company and its products. While you won’t have the exact sales numbers (as you would if you were researching a public company), this information should supply you with enough data to complete your analysis.

EXERCISE #4:

Pick a product or a service you are interested in.
Indentify the company who manufactures the product or offers the service.
Follow the steps above to research and analyze the company/product/service in question.
Come up with at least 5 “brilliant or crazy” business ideas based on your research.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…..(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Site?)

What To Do When You Need Brilliant Ideas Google