timing is everything

August 13, 2014August 13, 2014

How To Save Your Family And Yourself In WW3

Help-Yourself

Continuation from yesterday……

Most people will dismiss this forecast as highly improbable or even impossible. While some will quote the Bible in anticipation that “Armageddon” will come out of the Middle East, others will outright refuse to believe that the Nuclear World War 3 is even possible. And while some will verbally attack me, others will go as far as calling various mental facilities in California, demanding that they commit me without delay.

Whatever your view is, I want you to pay attention and do the following if you would like to

A. Survive this turbulent time period.
B. Save your family or those close to you.

Once again, it is incredibly important that you start paying very close attention to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments over the next 10-15 years. You will begin to see that the things that were discussed in this book are being fully realized. Particularly,

Chinese economy will go through a very difficult time. Leading to a possible regime change.
Chinese and Russian relationship will improve dramatically.
China and Russia will come together to form a military alliance.
The US/NATO relationship with Russia/China will deteriorate significantly.
Economic warfare.

Such developments should bring us into the 2028-2029 time period. It is at this stage that some sort of a conventional military conflict between Russia/China and the US/NATO will begin. If you are still dismissive of this forecast at that juncture, the law of natural selection demands your ultimate demise.

Yet, if you have a tiny bit of common sense you will immediately start making preparations for what is to come. And thanks to this book you will now know exactly what that is. Conventional and economic warfare between the superpowers will deteriorate by 2035. So much so that one of the sides will be forced to use nuclear weapons. Leading to an all out nuclear exchange that will wipe out half the Earth’s populations in a matter of hours. The other half will go through unimaginable struggles and horrors as they try to put the pieces together.

Unfortunately, no one will save you. There will no rapture and no baby Jesus (or Buddha or Allah or Krishna or Yahweh or Ronald Regan) will come down from the sky to save your sorry ass. Your government will no longer exist. Your prayers will not be answered and rich or poor, all will get vaporized in the very same fashion. Point being, the life of your family is in your hands. No one else’s.

“God helps those who help themselves”
-Someone smart

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

How To Save Your Family And Yourself In WW3 Google

August 13, 2014August 13, 2014

How To Surge Your Returns When Trading Tenbaggers

Continuation from yesterday………..Applying the same principals, an investor in this stock should have been looking for a trend reversal at the end of 2007 to take advantage of Keurig’s potential bear leg. Unfortunately, our bear raid in GMCR in 2007-2009 would have, more or less, failed. Without outlining every trade, we would have ended up trading in and out of the stock twice during this period. Selling our original long position and going short at around $8 a share in the early 2008 and then covering and going long in May of 2008 at $8 a share. Only to go short again in October of 2008 at $8 a share. Covering our position in March of 2009 in order to go long, once again, at $10 a share.

GMCR Trades #3-6: Trading in and out of the stock in 2007-2009. All entry, short and exit points would have occurred at around $8.00 a share (+/- $0.50). Net realized gain from previous entry point in 2003….$6.75 or 540%. Plus, a loss of $2.00 on the short side. Overall profit…..$8.25 or 3,200%. New long entry point at $10 a share in March of 2009.

Even though our bear raid in Keurig’s stock in 2007-2009 would have been a failure, we would have learned something incredibly important. We would have learned that the company’s stock price showed strength in the face of one of the most brutal bear markets in history. And while most other high flying stocks collapsed to the tune of 60-80% during the same period of time, Keurig’s stock remained within a tight trading range. Even rallying close to 100% in the mid 2008 when the rest of the stocks were going down.

Typically, such strength in the face of a falling market means that the stock price will recover at X multiple to market when a bear market ends and the overall market begins to recover. This would be of a particular interest to any analyst following the stock. Further, an analyst familiar with the overall mathematical and timing composition of the stock market would have been aware that the stock market was bottoming in the early 2009. At this point it would have made perfect sense to cover our short position and go long when the technical picture confirmed. That happened in March of 2009 at $10.00 a share.

Subsequently, the stock performed just as its relative strength during a bear market of 2007-2009 had suggested. Surging from $10 to $108 a share by September of 2011. A 1,000% gain in two and a half years. Yet, any investor in Keurig should have been extremely concerned at this point or at least very cautious. The stock, once again, ran away from its fundamental base and was selling at extreme valuation levels.

And while the technical picture was incredibly strong and there were no impending bear markets on the horizon, extra caution at this juncture would have been justified. Once again, that was due to the stock’s extreme fundamental overvaluation levels and its vertical rise over the preceding two years.

GMCR6 To Be Continued Tomorrow……

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August 12, 2014

Are You Smarter Than Carl Icahn?

8/12/2014 – A slight down day with the Dow Jones down 10 points (-0.06%) and the Nasdaq down 12 points (-0.27%).

As this juncture I am certain that you are sick and tired of me telling you that we are in a massive stock market bubble, a bubble that will soon implode. So, instead of sounding like a retarded parrot, I will let someone else share in the burden. Someone who is much smarter, Carl Icahn…..

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently commented on our Monetary Policy at the International Monetary Fund saying, “Monetary policy faces significant limitations as a tool to promote financial stability.” She continued that, “Its effects on financial vulnerabilities, such as excessive leverage and maturity transformation, are not well understood and are less direct than a regulatory or supervisory approach.” Yellen’s comments suggest, and I agree, that we are in an asset bubble.

To read the rest of his analysis please CLICK HERE

His conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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August 12, 2014

Inspiration Of The Day

inspiration of the day10

Inspiration Of The Day Google

August 12, 2014August 12, 2014

Who Will Win The Nuclear World War 3

cropped-univers

Continuation from yesterday…….When people first learn about my forecast, they typically follow up with the following questions.

Who will win?
Will the US prevail? Will China rule the world? Will Russia be the only country left standing?

Everyone is missing the point. No one will win. The prophecies of the past are quite clear in this regard. They oftentimes portray the final war so terrible, that those who survive the initial nuclear exchange would wish that they didn’t. Famine, utter collapse of society, violence, mobs, disease, etc…. Basically, the life as we know it today will come to a screeching halt. Only to be replaced by chaos, violence and human drive for survival at any cost.

Remember, if the scenario outlined in this book does come to a fruition, as my stock market work suggests, billions (not millions) of people will die. With most population centers throughout the world (particularly those in China, Russia, the EU and the US) ending up as radioactive wastelands, no one on this planet will be able to avoid the consequences. Even those living off the grid will be impacted by climate changes, radioactive fallouts and subsequent changes in the world order. Again……

Nation shall rise against nation
using the dark forces to shatter the Earth.
Weapons of force shall wipe out the Earth-man
until half of the races of men shall be gone.
Then shall come forth the Sons of the Morning
and give their edict to the children of men, saying:
O men, cease from thy striving against thy brother.
Only thus can ye come to the Light.
Then shall men cease from their striving,
brother against brother and father against son.

No one will win. Humanity as a whole will lose. Big time. The only consolation prize comes from a number of religious texts and various prophecies that discuss the subject matter and its aftermath. Most prelude to the fact that this war will be so terrible and so damaging to the human psyche that future generations will tremble at a thought of a war or harming another human being. Propelling the human race of the future towards peace, prosperity, harmony and higher consciousness. For now, we can only hope that such an outcome will be the case.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Who Will Win The Nuclear World War 3 Google

August 12, 2014August 12, 2014

How To Trade Tenbaggers

Continuation from yesterday…….

That is exactly what happened in August of 2001 when Keurig’s stock broke below its lower low at around $2.50 a share and headed lower. At that point, any investor who was watching the stock should have A. Sold his holding and B. Gone short. The overall probability of a significant stock decline was too great not to do so. After all, technical analysis was confirming the move.

GMCR Trade #1: Sell and go short at $2.50 a share. Realized profit from the previous entry point….. $2.25 a share or 900%.

As the chart above illustrates, Keurig’s stock price proceeded to bottom out in October of 2002 at around $1.00 a share. Around the same time the Dow hit a low point for its 2000-2002 bear leg. An analyst familiar with the overall mathematical composition of the stock market would be aware of the fact and would be, once again, watching the stock price very carefully for any sign of the bottom and the subsequent trend reversal. Ready to cover and go long at a moment’s notice. And indeed, such a confirmation arrived in March of 2003 when the company’s stock price pushed above its previous high at $1.25 a share.

GMCR Trade #2: Cover our short position at $1.25 a share and go long. Realized profit from the previous entry point….. $1.25 or 50%. Overall profit $3.50 or 1,300%

What followed was an uninterrupted bull market in Keurig’s share price between March of 2003 and December of 2007. During this time the company’s share price appreciated from $1.25 to approximately $9 a share. And that’s where it gets interesting. An investor working with the overall mathematical and cyclical composition of the stock market would be aware of the 5-Year bull cycle terminating in the late 2007 and an impending secular bear market mid cycle correction. Similar to those in 1907-1908, 1941-1942 and 1972-1974. In other words, with the fundamental analysis flashing signs of general stock market overvaluation and with the mathematical work suggesting a deep decline, it was highly probable that Keurig’s stock price was about to go through another correction.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

GMCR5

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August 11, 2014August 11, 2014

How To Control Stress And Fear If You Are A Wall Street Trader

wall street stress

Continuation from two weeks ago…..As I was about to start working on this section of the book the following breaking news story hit the wires, “Robin Williams Commits Suicide at 63”. Williams, one of my favorite actors and one of the most successful comics of all time had everything. At least what most people could only dream of. Wealth, a successful career in a highly competitive business, millions of fans, critical acclaim, an Oscar, children, a loving family, health, exciting projects and a bright future. Yet, after making millions of us laugh, it wasn’t enough. He was dying inside. Depression, drugs, alcohol were just too much to handle. And while we will never know what finally forced him to take that final step, his actions were preventable by applying the same concepts discussed in this book.

Just like the rest of us, Robin Williams was too closely associated with his own mind to come to a realization that he could control it. To come to a realization that he could control the negative energies associated with depression, stress, fear, greed, jealousy and a million other negative emotions. To come to a realization that could separate from them and then transform them into something positive. In the very same fashion that we will be transforming STRESS energies in this book. Most importantly, this ability would have given him the strength and the skills necessary to overcome most of his obstacles. Perhaps giving him the attitude necessary to save his own life in the process. Just as I’ve saved my own many years ago.

Outside of being in an active combat zone or perhaps an emergency room physician, stock traders or investors who actively participate in financial markets work in the highest pressure/stress environment on Earth. Day in and day out. Think about it for a second. Money managers who work with large sums of money have the ability to make or lose tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars within just a few hours. Often making millions of dollars one day, only to lose it all, and their shirt, a few days later. In fact, the emotional peaks and valleys for most of the Wall Street traders might be as extreme as a highly speculative tech stock behaving in an erratic fashion.

In other words, the amount of STRESS associated with avoiding losses while trying to outperform the competition on the Wall Street is truly immense. If we can somehow ascertain how to control STRESS energies associated with trading in the stock market, we can then easily apply the same principles to our daily lives. To deal with various STRESS energies on the consistent basis.

Perhaps one of the most successful and best known traders on the Wall Street was Jesse Livermore (1877-1940). He was famous for establishing a number of trading approaches that are still in use today as well as making and losing several fortunes in his lifetime. Most notable, we was able to amass a fortune of $3 million after 1907 crash and a fortune of over $100 million (over $1 Billion in today’s money) after 1929 stock market crash. Only to lose both shortly thereafter.

In essence, Livermore introduced a trading philosophy that emphasized increasing the size of winning positions while quickly cutting losses.

“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich quick adventurer. They will die poor.” —Jesse Livermore, How To Trade In Stocks

To Be Continued Tomorrow……..(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

How To Control Stress And Fear If You Are A Wall Street Trader Google

August 11, 2014August 11, 2014

Is Today’s Market More Overvalued Than It Was At 2000 and 2007 Tops?

8/11/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 16 points (+0.10%) and the Nasdaq up +30 points (+0.70%).

The stock market continues to, more or less, behave as anticipated. So much so, that my subscribers know not only where this correction will bottom (hint….its not yet in), but also the exact date. Plus, what to expect from the resulting rally. Click here to learn more.

It has been a while since we have talked about how overvalued the stock market is from the fundamental perspective alone. This article should get us going “Everything seems expensive”: Why today’s valuations are worse than in 1999

Median P/E today is 20 vs. 16 in January 2000
Median price-to-book today is 2.5 vs. 2.2 in 2000
Median price-to-revenue today is 1.8 vs. 1.4 in 2000

Yet, most of the analysts discussing the subject matter miss the big picture. Not only are today’s valuation levels just a little bit higher, they are exponentially higher. This has to do with the fact that a lot of the earnings growth over the last few years have been driven by money printing, QE, low interest rates, etc….

If fact, if we are to account for such factors, today’s artificial P/E ratio is likely to be well over 40. When today’s earnings disappear, as they will in the upcoming recession, you will see the E in the P/E vanish and the ratio jump much higher. That is exactly what happened in 2008 when earnings vanished and the S&P P/E jumped from 18 to over 60. This will happen again as the next bear leg develops.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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August 11, 2014August 11, 2014

How To Generate Business Ideas

business ideas Continuation from two weeks ago……

Case Study: If you are a big fan of coffee, you should be fairly familiar with Keurig line of coffee machines, K-cups and other accessories. As of this writing Keurig Green Mountain, Inc (GMCR) generates close to $4.5 Billion in sales within this product category alone. Yet, this wasn’t always the case.

Back in 1997, the company was a simple coffee roaster and a distributor with a new product line. Keurig coffee machines and K-cups. At the time the company was struggling with a net annualized revenue base of just $60 Million. Yet, around 1999 Keurig’s new product line started to take off. So much so that between 1999 and 2012 the company was able to grow their sales from just $60 Million a year to over $4 Billion a year. Increasing their stock market valuation by over 49,000% in the process.

If you were passionate about coffee and had a desire to start some sort of a business within the “Coffee Industry” it would have made perfect sense to follow companies such as Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), Starbucks (SBUX), Dunkin’ Brand Group, Inc (DNKN) and others. By doing so you would be able to educate yourself on a number of industry factors that you might otherwise be unfamiliar with. From how many cups of coffee your average American drinks per day to the struggles of a Guatemalan coffee grower, from the market price of coffee to the energy costs associated with roasting it. Most importantly, you would have been able to determine what the leaders within the industry saw and how they were positioning themselves for future business opportunities.

Now, going back to our fast growing Keurig example. After learning about the industry and the company, you could have had a number of great business ideas and their application towards your passion. For instance, here are just a few ideas off the top of my head…

Become a low cost producer of K-Cups for Keurig’s machines. A low margin and a high volume business.
Develop similar machines in the early 2000’s and sell them throughout Europe, Asia or South America. Since Keurig was concentrating on the US market you would not have had any competition.
You could have approached Keurig directly and have asked to become a distributor of their machines to commercial outlets such as gas stations, convenient stores, coffee shops, etc…. And while Keurig was concentrating on selling directly to consumers and office environments, you could have cornered the market for retail outlets.
You could have gone to Guatemala and developed a direct relationship with a coffee grower to process, roast, fill K-Cups and ship to the US. Cutting your costs and undercutting your competition in the process.

In fact, you could have done either one or all of the above. And while the ideas above need further refining, this simple process shows you what is possible once you begin studying and analyzing your market. Your thinking will become clearer, your ideas will become better and your execution will be on par with the big guys. Finally, while you will still make mistakes, they will not be as deadly as going into any business without first studying the industry.

Quick Note: Be careful of what you read in various trade publications or magazines. A lot of the time authors do a very poor job putting that information together. Plus, they might not be as well versed in the topic as they should be or they might be more concerned about hyping up certain products. Instead, once you have identified a product or a service, go to the root of the matter. The public companies themselves. Read and study their annual and quarterly reports. Look at the actual sales numbers and see what is selling very well and what is not. Which product lines are growing and which product lines are dying.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…...(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

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