Investment Grin Of The Day Google
The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 1)
The Study Of Time Cycles & Predicting The Future
In the early January of 2000, the US Economy was booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright. So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2003, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.
The only way to do that was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure of the market. For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock markets 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle. The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started (for the Dow). On January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time, 5 years and 23 trading days after it had started.
What does this have to do with predicting Nuclear World War 3?
Again, it is my intention to prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the TIME cycles I talk about are real. For both, the stock market and wars. The only way for me to do so is to look at the stock market. It is the only mechanism in nature that allows us to go back in time and study the subject matter in great detail. Plus, it will allow us to escape the preconceived notion of talking about “predicting the future” in an arbitrary fashion.
The stock market is a mathematically precise entity. It would be incredibly difficult to apply arbitrary techniques and then claim that the stock market could have been predicted. In other words, the stock market will set a top or a bottom on a certain day. That is a 100% undeniable fact. The time cycle will either be there or it will not. If it is there, time after time, the future is cyclical and therefore predictable. If it is not, then the entire premise of this book is false.
While there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two. The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of the doubt, that they work. More importantly, if the stock market can easily be predicted years and even decades into the future (sometimes to the day and to the point), the same type of prediction can be made about future wars.
To Be Continued Tomorrow
The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 1) Google
Making Millions While Shrinking Your Waistline (10 Bagger Book, Part 5)
Continuation of Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR).
CONCLUSION:
Keurig Green Mountain Inc gave us very little evidence (in 1998-2000) that it was about to stage a massive 49,616% rally over the next 14 years. In fact, even the company’s own management was not convinced that Keurig Coffee Systems and Green Mountain’s K-Cups would revolutionize the industry.
There was only one way to take a legitimate position at that time. First, you would have had to have an in depth understanding of the company and the exiting potential associated with Keurig/K-Cups. That could only be done through fundamental analysis. Meaning, you would have had to study the company in great detail and then concentrate on the new technology associated with Keurig to fully comprehend the potential.
It is only after understanding the upside associated with Keurig would one be able to start paying attention to the technical side of the equation. Otherwise, it would not had made any sense to take a long (or any) position in GMCR, regardless of what the stock price was doing.
It is only after the stock price begins to break out or set higher highs, an analyst familiar with the fundamental picture would note that the market is starting to confirm the fundamental potential and would consider taking a legitimate long position. Finally, one would have to be very patient with Green Mountain and hold it over an extended period of time. Suffering through a number of 50%+ declines while adding to a long position at various bottoms.
Final Prescription: Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis + Patience = A Massive ROI.
Making Millions While Shrinking Your Waistline
| Company Name: Medifast Inc | Stock Symbol: MED | Industry: Consumer/Weight Loss |
| Percent Appreciation: 8,250% | Number of Bags: 82.5 | Holding Period: 12.5 Years |
| Entry Date & Price: Jan, 2002 @$0.40 share | Exit Date & Price: Current ($33.4/share) | Original Investment($10,000): $825,000 |
Company Description: Medifast, Inc. is engaged in the production, distribution, and sale of weight loss and weight management products and other consumable health and diet products. It operates through two segments, Medifast and MWCC and Wholesale. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, eggs, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serve, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the Medifast and Essential 1 brands and for private label customers. It also provides nutritional products; and meal replacements comprising vitamins and minerals, as well as other nutrients essential for good health.
The company operates Medifast weight control centers that offer programs for weight loss and maintenance, customized patient counseling, InBody composition analysis, and monitoring with a BodyGem that determines resting metabolic rates. As of December 31, 2013, Medifast, Inc. operated weight control centers in 75 locations; and 41 franchise centers. The company sells its products through various channels of distribution comprising the Internet, call center, independent health advisors, medical professionals, weight loss clinics, and direct consumer marketing. Medifast, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Owings Mills, Maryland.
Making Millions While Shrinking Your Waistline (10 Bagger Book, Part 5) Google
Happy 4th Of July Everyone
Would You Like A Million With That Coffee? (10 Bagger Book. Part 5)
Continuation Of Part 4…….With the stock price trending higher in 1999 and 2000 we would have had two opportunities to take a long position in GMCR at the time. One in September of 1999 at $0.31 and one in January of 2000 at $0.35. With the $0.35 entry point in January of 2000 being technically more sound.
The only remaining question at the time would be……Why would we take position?
There was no real reason to do so unless you were closely following the company and all of its fundamental developments. Including the growth in their Keurig/K-Cup line. And while the stock price was already trending higher since October of 1998, appreciating over 100% by the end of 1999, it was still unclear if it was just another range bound rally or something more.
TIMING & MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS:
After going public in October of 1993 and staying in a relatively tight trading range over the next 5 years, Green Mountain’s stock price did not give us enough time nor volatility to determine its cyclical breakup. Typically, over 20 years of trading data is necessary in order to be able to determine underlying stocks mathematical, timing or cyclical structure.
While we would not be able to get that information from GMCR chart by the second half of 1999, one thing jumps out immediately. Green Mountain’s stock price bottomed at $0.14 in October of 1998. Exactly 5 Years after going public. If you are familiar with my other writings you are very well aware that I regard the 5 year cycle as one of the most important cycles in the stock market.
The 5 year cycle tends to represent completed bull or bear phases within the composition of the overall stock market or individual stocks. For example, the 1982-1987, 1994-2000 and 2002-2007 bull cycles all lasted exactly 5 years. An analyst familiar with this cycle would realize that a 5 year BEAR cycle that started for GMCR’s stock price in October of 1993 had likely terminated in October of 1998. At least the probability was fairly high. Giving more credence to us taking a long position in the late 1999.
GETTING IN AND OUT OF THE STOCK:
As you very well know, taking a trading/investment position in a Tenbagger at the appropriate time is only half the battle. Staying put, increasing your position and not being forced out to sell at the wrong time is the other side of the coin. After all, it wouldn’t be a good idea to take a 100% profit, only to see your stock go up another 20,000% over the next decade. As human beings we are wired to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time. Hence the inability to outperform the market. When it comes to Tenbaggers we must have a clearly defined set of trading rules that will help us mitigate the risk of being wrong (Please see the Tenbagger Trading Rules & Maximizing Returns chapter).
In case of Green Mountain, if you were fortunate enough to take a long position in late 1999 or early 2000 it would not be an easy ride up. The stock had suffered a 60% drop between 2001 and 2002, 50% drop in 2008 and a gut wrenching 84% decline between 2011 and 2012.
Would most investors be able to go through such massive sell offs without liquidating their positions?
Who are we kidding, most mortals would not be able to sustain such massive drops without first getting out. Most likely at exactly the wrong time. Well, that is unless you were in a comma during the time or if Green Mountain represented only a small portion of your overall well diversified portfolio. For the rest of us, neither one is likely to be the case. That is why a proper application of set trading rules becomes so important. So much so, that in many cases it can easily double or triple the overall return on the underlying stock. Easily turning Green Mountain’s 496 bagger into a 1,000 bagger over the same period of time. Once again, please check our Tenbagger Trading Rules & Maximizing Returns chapter for more information.
To Be Continued…….
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Would You Like A Million With That Coffee? (10 Bagger Book. Part 5) Google
Daily Stock Market Update. July 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
Another up day with the Dow Jones up 92 points (+0.54%) and the Nasdaq up 28 points (+0.63%).
Break out your party hats everyone. The Dow broke above 17,000 (as was predicted in our member section). And according to some bulls this is an important level. It indicates that the bull market is very well intact and that the stock market is going higher. As accurate as that might be, suggesting that the stock market will go higher here just because it broke above 17,000 is like driving 100 MPH while looking in a rear view mirror. It’s not going to end well.
Further, most markets opened up a large gap up in the morning. That is in addition to a large gap on Tuesday of this week, leading all the way down to 16,925. What does that mean? It is highly probable the market will go down over the next few days/weeks to close these gaps before further longer term moves become evident. Longer-term, the market remains at insane valuation/speculation levels. With VIX fast approaching all time lows (it hit its February 2007 low today), the market is setting up for a large drop.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Daily Stock Market Update. July 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Book, Intro, Part 4)
Continuation of Part 3…..After a decade long research into the subject matter, let me firmly state that everything that was said in the article above is 100% true. Once the stock market structure is understood in its entirety, the market or individual stocks can be timed with great precision. Not by some arbitrary technique that cannot be replicated, but through the use of modern science and mathematics. Math doesn’t lie and when the market turns/reverses at exact mathematical points of force, only one explanation remains. The market is not a randomly volatile instrument, but a mathematically precise tool that baffles the mind.
What does that have to do with predicting the future?……. Everything.
Again, if one can predict the future movements of stocks, one should also able to use the same mathematical knowledge to predict the future of our everyday lives. As above, so is below. In other words, the same TIME cycles that apply to the stock market can be applied towards predicting everything else. Everything from major disasters to major events in our own lives, from major political changes to wars. Once you understand that, predicting the future becomes a whole lot easier.
Now, I know what you are thinking. The future is impossible to predict, we do not live in a “predetermined” world and the very notion of living in such a “pre-programmed” world is ludicrous…..everyone know that. Well, do they? Do I really have to remind you that just 500 years ago 99.9% of the Earth’s population believed that A. The Earth was flat and B. The Earth was the center of the Universe. And if you were to suggest otherwise you would be called a heretic and grilled at the stake.
Point being, when it comes to understanding the world we live and/or the multi-dimensional architecture behind our 3-Dimensional reality, the human race has not even started its ascend. We act as children in a pitch black room, groping everything and understanding nothing. And instead of arguing this point further I will leave you with a quote from someone who has a little bit more credibility and a lot more intelligence. Someone who is basically telling you the same thing.
God Does Not Play Dice
-Albert Einstein
When it comes to predicting Nuclear World War 3 the book will look at the subject matter in the following order.
- The Study Of Time Cycles & Predicting The Future: We will look at a number of real life examples and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the TIME cycles I talk about are real. We will also take a look at how they work and what the future holds.
- When Will The War Start: We will study the WAR TIME CYCLE in great detail. We will also look at the exact time window associated with the start of the WW-3 and the meaning behind it.
- Why Will The War Start & Why Will It Be A Nuclear War: We will look at the number of today’s geopolitical issues in order to determine who will fight the war, why it is unavoidable and why it will be a Nuclear war.
- How Will The War Start: We will look at a number of possible scenarios.
- What You Can Do Now To Protect/Save Your Family & Yourself: As a bonus section we will look at what you can do over the next decade to protect/save your family and yourself.
Buckle up, it’s going to be a fascinating journey.
To Be Continued……(Why Are You Seeing This On A Financial Website?)
The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Book, Intro, Part 4) Google
Daily Stock Market Update. July 2nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 20 points (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq down 1 points (-0.02%).
While the market continues to put most traders/investors into a deep state of trance, the chart above should give them a swift kick in the ass. At least in theory. Among other things, it clearly shows that forward P/E for the S&P is now officially higher than it was back in 2007. And while some will stop there, I will not.
You see, the E in P/E has been massively diluted over the last 5 years by the FED, massive capital infusion, QE, etc….Creating “fake or pay it forward” earnings for all of the corporate America. So much so that if we make make certain adjustments and take that monstrous/artificial liquidity out, the real P/E is likely to be above 40. Making today’s market incredibly overpriced. This is exactly what happened in 2008 when corporate earnings collapsed and the S&P P/E ratio briefly jumped over 100.
So, – 49%, -57% and -??% to complete our 2000-2017 secular bear market.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Wisdom Of The Day
“Were you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt. After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.” – Paul Tudor Jones