timing is everything

June 11, 2014June 11, 2014

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Massive Financial Bubble

A few days ago I have talked about Uber, their massive VC round at $18 Billion valuation level and what that means. Yesterday, the fools at The New York Times have argued…. “Why Uber Might Well Be Worth $18 Billion”

Think about the basic math. There are a lot of numbers floating around about the global revenue for taxis, but here are the basics: In the United States, the taxi business generates $11 billion annually, according to IBISWorld.

In big cities like New York and London, The Financial Times reports that the average person spends $238 a year on taxis. If you extrapolate that Uber could one day control a quarter of the current global taxi market, the investment would turn out to be a home run. The business is currently in 128 cities in 37 countries and says it is doubling its revenue every six months. (TechCrunch reported Uber’s revenue last year was $213 million on more than $1 billion of bookings; Uber takes a 20 percent cut of all driver’s receipts.)

This is the basic rationale of all start ups and idiot investors who believe them. “If we only get 2% of the market we will make a Trillion Dollars”. Unfortunately, I have never seen this pipe in the sky dream come to a fruition. So, why is Uber, a company with $213 Million in revenue and net losses is valued at more than Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Best Buy Co, Alcoa or another 250 companies on the S&P 500 index?

Let me tell you why. Because we are in a massive financial and speculative bubble reminiscent of the 2000 and 2007 tops.Venture Capital and the stock market tend to sync up for the most part and the excesses (or absolute insanity) you are seeing in terms of Uber valuation levels are the direct result of the massive bubble in the stock market. Let’s just not pretend or hope, we all know what happens next.

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Massive Financial Bubble Google

June 11, 2014June 11, 2014

The Shocking Real Reason Behind The American School Shootings

Shockingly, there have been 74 shootings in American schools over the last 1.5 years (1 per week). To say that American schools have become battle zones would be a massive understatement. Since this doesn’t happen anywhere else in the world and since I wasn’t born nor brainwashed in the US, here are my two cents.

I moved to the US when I was 15 years old and immediately dropped into an American high school. It was a culture shock. Here is what I think is causing the shootings.

Most American High/Middle Schools Are Subpar Cattle Ranches/Prisons: I didn’t go to a bad high school. On the contrary, it was ranked as one of the better schools in my city/district, yet coming from a different country I felt as if I was dropped into a prison. The level of education simply sucked. In many cases I knew more than my teachers did. More importantly, 98% of the teachers didn’t give a shit about any of their students and the students didn’t give a shit about any of their teachers. There was an absolute disconnect between the parties. Any and all interactions were on the surface. Basically, it was a place to unload the kids, for whatever worthless purpose, for about 8 hours a day.
Disintegration Of American Society: Instead of blaming guns, musicians, etc….people should wake up and blame the parents. “Oh, I didn’t know my little Johny was crazy”….. BS, someone needs to start prosecuting the parents. In the America we live in today only two things count (for most people). 1. Money and 2. Image/Ego. As opposed to providing a stable and a loving home environment most American parents work 24/7 so they can keep up with the Joneses, be able to afford 2 massive SUVs and a 5,000 sqft overpriced McMansion. And I am not even talking about the 50% divorce rate. At the end of the day, a lot of American parents are in it for themselves as they become completely disconnected from their kids.

Unfortunately, the wrong priorities associated with greed and achievement/image in America is what is causing all of these shootings. And while many will disagree, this is my view as an outsider going through the American school system.

The Shocking Real Reason Behind The American School Shootings Google

June 10, 2014June 10, 2014

Daily Stock Market Update. June 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

A slight up day with the Dow Jones up 3 points (0.02%) and the Nasdaq up 2 points (0.04%).

Since it is more exciting to watch the paint dry than it is to watch today’s market, allow me to re-examine the 5-Year Cycle and what it predicts.

As I have mentioned so many times before, there is a prominent 5 Year stock market cycle that oscillates between the bull and the bear markets. While the cycle does show up as a bear cycle at various points, for the most part this cycle is more clearly identifiable during the bull stage. Let’s take a quick look. More importantly, let’s see what does this cycle can tell us about the future. (We are looking at the DOW)

1982-1987 From 1982 bear market bottom to pre crash 1987 the cycle lasted exactly 263 week and moved up 1977 points. That is exactly 5 Years + 10 trading days.
1994-2000 From 1994 bottom on 11/23/1994 to 01/14/2000 the market advanced 8296 points in exactly 1298 trading days. So, this cycle lasted 5 Years +32 trading days.
2002-2007 From 2002 bottom on 10/10/2002 to 10/11/2007 top the market advanced 7209 points in exactly 1259 trading days or EXACTLY 5 years.
2009-2014 From 2009 bottom on 03/06/2009 to 2014.

AMAZING, isn’t it? I mean we are talking about exact hits. Bottom to top. If you go back and study the market before 1982 you will find the same cycle showing up again and again. The slight deviation by a few trading days at the end of each cycle is caused by other cycles arriving around the same time. Just by knowing this one 5 year cycle you can predict what the market will do and beat 95% of the pros.

Now, let me warn you. This cycle is not as easy as just timing the 5 year period of time. There is something behind the scenes that causes this cycle to happen. As of right now, I cannot discuss what causes this in the public forum, but the chart below doesn’t lie. Just more proof that the market can be predicted to the day.

This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 10th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. June 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

June 10, 2014June 10, 2014

Does The Russell 2000 Suggests An Upcoming Collapse?

About a week ago I talked about a possible Head & Shoulders pattern developing on the Nasdaq. While that pattern is somewhat in question, the Russell 2000 is now building its own. The last time it happened back in 2010 the Russell collapsed 27%.

But the technicals may be signaling a huge drop ahead, according to Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson. “I don’t like the small caps,” said Ross, a “Talking Numbers” contributor. “I’m a seller of the Russell 2000. In fact, full disclosure, I’m short the Russell in my personal account.”

The main question here is…… are the Dow & the S&P leading the market higher or are the Nasdaq & the Russell 2000 showing the early warning signs for what is to come in the overall market?

Over the last few months I have covered extensively why the stock market is approaching a top from both the fundamental/technical and the mathematical/timing fronts. It just might very well be that the more speculative indices will lead all markets lower. To start the bear market of 2014-2017. One thing is for sure, I would watch the Russell 2000 very carefully. If the Head & Shoulders develops as anticipates it would spell the impeding doom for the overall market.

Does The Russell 2000 Suggests An Upcoming Collapse? Google

June 10, 2014

Daily Dose Of Motivation

June 10, 2014October 17, 2014

What You Ought To Know About The Death Of American Middle Class

Here is the bottom line.

The richest 1% save 38% of their income
Wealthy Americans save about 12% of their income.
Most Americans save only about 0-3% of their income

More importantly, the gap between the rich and the middle class or the poor has surged over the last decade. Most of it due to the disastrous Federal Reserve policies that benefit the wealthy at the cost of everyone else. While those well off might shrug this off as irrelevant or inconsequential, it is anything but.

I have argued in the past that no economy can function over the long term if only a select few (those who have access to unlimited cheap credit) benefit. What made America so powerful in the past is it’s middle class. Now that it’s going away, everyone, including the top 1% will pay the price. Blame Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen.

What You Ought To Know About The Death Of American Middle Class Google

June 10, 2014June 10, 2014

Obama’s New Student Debt Law Perpetuates The State Of Welfare

Never mind the fact that it was idiotic to get a $100,000 loan in order to get a Psychology or a Marine Biology degree. Now, the Obama Administration is trying to stick the taxpayer with a bill. Again. Who will—and won’t—benefit from student loan aid

Students with federal loans will be able to cap payments at 10% of their monthly income for 20 years. Any remaining balance thereafter will be dismissed.

So, let me get this straight. Not only does the law sticks the taxpayer with paying for someone else’s overpriced education, but it also creates a Welfare mindset while discouraging hard work. Simply brilliant. Welcome to the United Socialist States Of America.

Obama’s New Student Debt Law Perpetuates The State Of Welfare Google

June 9, 2014June 9, 2014

Daily Stock Market Update. June 9th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

A slight up day with the Dow Jones up 19 points (+0.11%) and the Nasdaq up 15 points (+0.34%).

I can’t even count how many times I was told that “It is different this time” by the bulls. And that’s just over the weekend. Every possible explanation was given. From the FED being able to control the markets to stocks being inexpensive to Jesus Christ coming back later this year (I wish I was kidding).

In reality, it is never different. Unfortunately, most investors don’t have a sense of memory. With the stock market doing exactly the same thing today as it was doing at 2000 and 2007 tops, there will be no one to blame. In other words, I will enjoy gutting this market on the short side (when the time is right) and I will show no mercy.

This chart is just another “In Your Face” warning sign that you should pay a very close attention to. The bullish sentiment is now above 2007 top levels.

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. June 9th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

June 9, 2014June 9, 2014

The Shocking Truth Behind This Bull Market Rally.

What’s behind the recent stock market rally? Just take the look at the charts below as they speak for themselves. In short, you can summarize April -June rally with 3 simple points.

Massive short squeeze/covering on low volume.
No fear, huge amount of speculation/greed, overvaluation and no bears left.
Divergences and breadth. Even though the indices are up, only 17% of the Russell 3000 are up since March 4th. The rest are down.

In other words, you are witnessing a blow off top.