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Is Gold Dead Or Is It Bottoming?

Gold vs stocks

According to most market pundits, Gold is dead and you should buy stocks and real estate.

Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. J.C. Parets, a technical analyst at Eagle Bay Capital, notes: “This downtrend has been very strong over the past 30 months and is hard to fight.”

Yes, Gold is in a technical downtrend, likely to test $1,200 (maybe even lower) and the time to buy it is not quite here. Yet, to look at it from such a perspective is like looking in a rear view mirror.

Here is what I believe to be the best way to look at Gold and it’s price. Forget about the fundamental factors such as supply/demand and geopolitical events. From our vantage point, Gold’s technical/structural setup is identical to the one in 2007 when Gold went from $600 to $1,800 an ounce.

With our mathematical and timing work predicting a severe bear market between 2014-2017, the FED will have no choice but to introduce further stimulus in order to try and re-inflate our markets and the economy. When that happens, I would expect Gold to be surging higher, not setting new lows. In fact, I continue to believe that Gold will be one of the better investments out there over the next 3-5 years.

All you have to do now is wait for Gold to bottom, break out above $1,420 and we should be off to the races. Be patient now. Our timing work shows that the next stage of the bull market in Gold is just around the corner as it will be surging higher by around this time next year. If you would like more precise timing please Click Here.    

z32

Is Gold Dead Or Is It Bottoming? Google

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Why It’s Stupid To Buy Real Estate Today

Right on the ball and we couldn’t agree more. Selling or shorting (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)) real estate right now is a much better idea.

Z30

Why It’s Stupid To Buy Real Estate Today Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 4 2014

An up day with the Dow Jones up 15 points (+0.09%) and the Nasdaq up 18 points (+0.41%). 

Since the market continues to flat line, let’s take a quick look at index divergences and their meaning. While most major indices are up for the year (S&P +4.3%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +0.9%), this doesn’t tell the whole story.

While the S&P and the Dow have re-confirmed their bullish trends, the Nasdaq has failed to do so. Just a matter of time? Maybe or maybe the Nasdaq is the leading indicator in this bearish setup. As I have mentioned a few days ago, the Nasdaq is likely in a process of building the right shoulder of a fairly large Head-And-Shoulders trading pattern. Making the Nasdaq the most important index to watch over the next few months. Assuming that you would like to get it right.

This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

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What Happens When Blackstone Starts Dumping Real Estate At Market? Part II

Just a quick revisit.

As far as I am concerned, Blackstone has lost it’s way and should fire their entire real estate division. Why? Watch the video above. Their investment thesis in real estate is very simple. 1. The bottom is in. 2. There is a massive housing shortage. 3. Real estate prices will continue to rise.  That sounds great, except for one thing, it’s a bunch of BS that can easily be discredited.

Now, remember, while these guys have been somewhat correct thus far by being one of the largest real estate buyers/investors in the nation, the market hasn’t spoken yet. All they have done is bought a huge amount of illiquid real estate that they will be unable to unload when a bear market in real estate prices resumes. As often is the case, one minute you are a financial genius and a half an hour later you are a retarded idiot (after the market moves against you).

I wrote about this before and I continue to stand by my opinion. Good luck unloading your illiquid real estate Blackstone. 

In another sign that the “Dead Cat Bounce” for the Real Estate market is now over, Blackstone Group has announced that it’s real estate acquisition pace has slowed 70% from last years pace due to higher prices. In fact, this is the trend seen across the industry. Investors, hedge funds, institutions are all slowing down their real estate acquisitions to the tune of 70-90%.

“The institutional wave has passed,” Gray, who oversees almost $80 billion in property investments, said in a telephone interview. “It’s at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.”

What happens next?

Easy. The real estate market might hover here for some time. Not too long thought. As soon the Bear Market of 2014-2017 hits and the US falls back into a severe recession, you will see housing going down once again. Once investors realize where we are in the real estate cyclical composition (dead cat bounce and not expansion) you will see the likes of Blackstone trying to get rid of their properties as fast as possible. With investors heading for the doors, mass volume of real estate should hit the market. Collapsing existing values just as fast, if not faster, than their initial ascend between 2010-2014.

Good luck selling your 43,000 rental properties Blackstone. 

Z31

What Happens When Blackstone Starts Dumping Real Estate At Market?  Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

warren_buffet“Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.” – Warren Buffett

In the beginning, diversification is relevant. Once you’ve gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets.

z33

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What You Ought To Know About The Cold War 2 & Obama

Obama shaking hands with Ukraine's Mafia Boss (AKA "Chocolate King")
Obama shaking hands with Ukraine’s Mafia Boss (AKA “Chocolate King”

If there were any doubts that the Cold War 2 with Russia and possibly China will only get worse from this point on (as predicted here), they should now be gone. While most people do not realize this yet, the Obama Administration will be viewed as instrumental in setting up the stage for a massive conflict around 2030. Is there a chance of this getting better? Not when our nation’s next presidential front runner (Hillary) openly compares Putin to Hitler. The stage is being set.

Z30

What You Ought To Know About The Cold War 2 & Obama   Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. June 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 2 2014

A slight down day with the Dow Jones down 21 points (-0.13%) and the Nasdaq down 3 points (-0.07%).

If the stock market was a patient it would be pronounced dead already. Did someone shut down Wall Street or has everyone left for the Hamptons already?

In all seriousness and as I have mentioned before, the market continues to accumulate energy. Like a spring. This is a very dangerous period. Typically, periods of inactivity are followed by periods of immense activity, catching most traders/investors with their pants down. Based on my mathematical work, it is likely to be the case here.

In other words, when this period of inactivity ends the stock market will stage either a massive rally or a “mini-crash” kind of a move. If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. June 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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Shocking News: Is The Bond Market Bubble About To Burst?

10 Year Note Chart

Most market participants continue to watch in disbelief as bond yields continue to trend lower and the yield curve continues to compress in the most unexpected fashion. This pair of articles that give a good overview on the subject matter.

Here is the bottom line. Anyone who expects the “bond market bubble” to burst is in for quite a shock. First, there is NO bond market bubble. There is a massive stock market bubble, but the same cannot be said about the bond market. Second, as I have mentioned earlier the bond market is starting to see a severe recession ahead….hence the decline/compression.

Finally, 30-year bull markets (in bond prices) typically do not end in a simple V shape form. The bond market is going lower to set a secondary/double bottom that will coincide with a bear market of 2014-2017.

z32

Shocking News: Is The Bond Market Bubble About To Burst? Google

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Peter Schiff Capitulates: Are Markets About To Collapse?

Peter SchiffPeter Schiff, one of the most “in your face” perma bears has basically capitulated. After years of predicting US Equity market collapse, appearing on various TV/Radio shows and writing a few books on the subject matter, Peter now believes the FED will be able to delay any such collapse…..  “The air is already coming out of the bubble” but Fed can delay collapse: Peter Schiff

A contrary indicator? 

You bet. Listen, Peter Schiff is a very intelligent man. Yet, one of the hardest things out there is to be a bear in an ever increasing bull market. Even though your research might be right, your timing might be off by as much as a few years. And the market makes you pay for it by making you look like an absolute idiot. I had the privilege of experiencing this in 2006-2007 when my call for 2008 collapse was a few years early.

This is something that all investors should be aware of. I call it an emotional detachment from a proposed outcome. While it is important to have a very well researched position, it is even more important to be able to change your view when need be. Very few people can do that and that is why most people buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Unfortunately, Mr. Schiff is giving up at exactly the wrong time.

Z30