Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Weekly Update & Summary: May 10th, 2014

For the week the Dow Jones gained 70 points (+0.43%) and the Nasdaq lost 52 points (-1.26%). The number of divergences and market undercurrents continue to increase. While the Dow did very well structurally, it continues to have two near term gaps to the downside, the one on April 14th and a large gap on April 16th. Indicating an upcoming correction. Further, there are a number of smaller gaps left leading all the way down to February 5th low. We continue to believe that the Dow will close such gaps when the next bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).

WEEKLY REVIEW:

Why You Should Invest All Of Your Money In Cash. Hint….You Will Make A Killing.

Recently, I have been telling all of my friends and relatives to save and/or accumulate as much cash as they can. Better yet, to keep putting it in a 10-Year note. Assuming that they don’t actively invest/speculate in the stock market.

Stupidest investment advice ever?

Not when you are accumulating cash in order to raid the stock market at the bottom. AKA….to bathe in the blood of others. In fact, I gave the same advice in 2006-2007 or right before the collapse. Here is what happens when you accumulate cash right before or during the bear market.

First, you tend to avoid a bear market decline and losses of 30-50%. Second, you have the capital to come in at the bottom (ex: 2009) and buy the market/stocks at give away prices. Minimizing risk and maximizing gains in the subsequent bull market. Making cash one of the better investments today (because of a 2014-2017 bear market).Marc Faber tends to agree.

What You Ought To Know About The Upcoming Gold Rally. This Is Incredible.

According to a consultancy out of London you should sell your Gold and seriously consider buying some Twitter stock.

“Gold prices have probably peaked this year and could sink to their lowest since 2010 at $1,100 an ounce as the U.S. economic recovery gathers pace, consultancy Metals Focus said on Wednesday.”

Yeah, the US economic recovery gathers pace as it goes right over a cliff.

Here is what I believe to be the best way to look at Gold and it’s price. Forget about the fundamental factors such as supply/demand and geopolitical events. From our vantage point, Gold’s technical/structural setup is identical to the one in 2007 when Gold went from $600 to $1,800 an ounce.

With our mathematical and timing work predicting a severe bear market between 2014-2017, the FED will have no choice but to introduce further stimulus in order to try and re-inflate our markets and the economy. When that happens, I would expect Gold to be surging higher, not setting new lows. In fact, I continue to believe that Gold will be one of the better investments out there over the next 3-5 years.

All you have to do now is wait for Gold to break out above $1,420 and we should be off to the races. Be patient now. Our timing work shows that the next stage of the bull market in Gold is just around the corner as it will be surging higher by around this time next year. If you would like more precise timing please Click Here.

Is It Time To Short Homebuilders? This Answer Might Surprise You

According to Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, it is time.

“Investors should bet against the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF because he does not see the expected rebound in single-family housing occurring”

We like the idea as this ETF is likely to yield about a 50% return on the short side over the next few years. Why? For the following reasons.

As we have outlined so many times before, the housing recovery is over and the entire real estate market is about to embark on the most vicious bear leg of it’s decline. Stage 3. You can read everything you need to know about this here. Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When
Our advanced mathematical and timing work predicts a severe bear market between 2014-2017. Under such circumstances the real estate market will not be able to maintain its upward trajectory. On the contrary, it might be one of the sectors leading the market lower.
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is showing early signs of a technical price breakdown.

When you combine the points the above, SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) becomes a very good short investment opportunity.

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:

Ukraine/Russia/USA/EU/NATO continue to be the most important issue. In fact, I continue to believe that things will escalate significantly over the next few weeks.

It appears that Mr. Putin’s game plan is clearing up. It is highly probable that he will wait for a referendum scheduled for this Sunday, May 11th. It is widely expected that Pro-Russian population in East Ukraine will declare independence or become autonomous and then in one form or another will ask to join Russia. Essentially it’s the same game plan as what had happened in Crimea. No shots fired, no invasion and Russia regains complete control of East Ukraine. A great strategy.

The fun starts when Ukraine’s interim government (under the direction of the US, the EU and NATO) refuses to let East Ukraine go (which they will). This should give Russia the pre-text needed to enter Ukraine in order to “defend” its new territory and its people.

As you can imagine this situation will spark a number of economic sanctions (from both sides), political storm, war rhetoric and a million other unforeseen consequences. It is highly probable that this would be incredibly unsettling for financial markets. I can tell you one thing, the markets do not have this priced in. The upcoming week is critical.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE FOR DOW JONES:

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. Same applies to the market action over the last few months. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: Short-term trend remains positive for the time being. The Dow would have to break below 16,000 for the short-term trend to shift from positive to negative.

Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:

It’s going to be a long one.

First, a re-cap. Particularly for our new subscribers. Over the last few months we have maintained that the DOW will

(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public. As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

In conclusion, xxxx

Longer-Term Overview:

The next turning point is located at……

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

TRADING:

I am now fully committed to the XXXX side of the market with 11 individual positions taken at the prices outlined below. A lot of them have done incredibly well thus far and I hope you were able to benefit as well. I will be updating you of any changes or anticipated changes before they take place.

Remember, you should have an exact strategy and entry/exit points based on the forecast above.

The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, all of the positions below have been triggered.

Stock	Entry Point ($)	Action Taken	Stop Loss @
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	91
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	1250
xxxx	110	xxxx	121-123
xxxx	74	xxxx	80
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	260
xxxx	xxxx	xxxx	460
xxxx	35	xxxx	39
xxxx	65	xxxx	70
xxxx	120	xxxx	120-130
xxxx	100	xxxx	108-112
xxxx	112	xxxx	120

Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).

If You Are A Trader: XXXX

If No Position: XXXX

If Long: XXXX

If Short: XXXX

CONCLUSION:

An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecasts above to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do now. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start.

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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

May 9, 2014May 9, 2014

Daily Stock Market Update. May 9th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

A slight up day with the Dow Jones up 32 points (0.20%) and the Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.50%).

Today, let’s talk about one of the most dangerous times within the stock market internal composition. Contrary to a popular believe, most powerful moves do not happen as blow off tops/bottoms, they tend to materialize after a prolonged period of inactivity. From a mathematical/physics perspective, it is similar to compressing a powerful spring and then letting it go. As you can imagine, such action releases a massive amount of pent up energy in one quick snap. The 1987 market crash is a perfect illustration of that.

If you haven’t noticed, the stock market has flat lined over the short-term since April 22nd and over the long-term since December 31st, 2013. At this juncture most investors/traders are bored out of their minds and fast asleep.

This is the most dangerous time as WARNING signs should be flashing all over the place. The stage is being set. Remember, it’s the market’s job to create such an environment and put everyone to sleep…….before slamming you out of your nap in a violent fashion.

This sort of thinking tends to be in agreement with our mathematical and timing work. Once again, it shows that a severe bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner.When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here).

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Daily Stock Market Update. May 9th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

May 9, 2014May 9, 2014

National Association of Realtors: 30-Year Mortgage Is For Losers.

Let’s give each other a pat on the back. Americans are so freaking rich that 43% of us don’t even bother to get a mortgage. Instead, deciding to plunk down $200K, $500K or $1+ Mil on that house of your dreams in hard cold cash. In fact, according to most industry insiders you have got to be a special kind of stupid to bet against this trend.

We happily oblige. The reality is quite different. Instead of bringing joy, this number should cause panic. As we reported earlier, the number of all cash buyers is even higher in some parts of the country. For instance, in Las Vegas all cash investors (hedge funds, Chinese buyers, flippers, etc..) represent 75-90% of all real estate transactions.

In a nutshell, most of the demand from single unit families is gone. We are now left with investors, speculators and flippers playing the game of musical chairs. If that is not a clear sign of a market top, I don’t know what is.

When the music finally stops (already happening) expect this secondary real estate bubble to blow sky high. Just as predicted in this report Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When

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National Association of Realtors: 30-Year Mortgage Is For Losers. Google

MarketWatch: 43% of 2014 home buyers paid all cash

What the reliance on cash sales means for housing

Americans are still buying homes in all-cash deals, despite more investors leaving the market, according to a new report.

All-cash purchases accounted for almost 43% of all sales of residential property in the first quarter of 2014, up from almost 38% in the previous quarter and 19% in the first quarter of 2013, according to data released Thursday from real-estate data firm RealtyTrac. “It’s a surprising thing for us that cash sales have stayed high for so long even though the big hedge fund investors have pulled out of the market a bit,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “The high percentage of cash sales reveals the soft underbelly of the housing recovery.”

Experts say the high percentage of those paying cash won’t last much longer, though. “Cash buyers will become few and far between,” Blomquist says. So who does have the money to buy a home outright? Wealthy Americans and downsizing empty nesters make some of these all-cash deals, he says. Investors who are eager to make a profit by buying low and renting those properties — or flipping them — also drive up the number of all-cash deals, he adds.

Click to Play

4 in 10 home buyers in 2014 paid in cash

Americans are still buying homes in all-cash deals, despite more investors leaving the market, according to a new report. MarketWatch’s Quentin Fottrell discusses what cash deals means for the housing recovery on MarketWatch.

Institutional investors — people or companies that have purchased at least 10 properties in a calendar year — appear to be gradually pulling out of the housing market. Investors accounted for 5.6% of all U.S. residential sales in the first quarter, down from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013 and 7% in the first quarter of 2013. But while the share of institutional investor buyers declined in 18 of the top 20 markets for institutional investors, home prices continued to appreciate in most of those markets, although at a slower pace. “But price appreciation will definitely flatten out,” he adds.

The top five markets for cash sales were in Florida, which experienced one of the biggest property crashes after the 2008 recession: Cape Coral-Fort Myers (74%), Miami (67%), Sarasota (65%), Palm Bay (64%), and Lakeland (62%). Other major metro areas where over half of all property sales were done in cash included New York (57%), Columbia, S.C., (56%), Memphis, Tenn. (55%), Detroit, Mich. (53%), Atlanta (53%) and Las Vegas (52%). Many high-end homes are also purchased with cash and buyers in competitive areas where inventory is low are more likely to offer cash.

Not everyone agrees that the housing market is so reliant on cash. The National Association of Realtors says its data suggests the rate of cash sales is lower and on the decline. All-cash sales comprised 33% of transactions in March versus 35% in February and 30% in March 2013, according to data released last month. Individual investors purchased 17% of homes in March, down from 21% in February and 19% in March 2013, the NAR found. But existing home sales were flat in March, the report found. The pool of potential buyers is limited due to tight lending standards and rising interest rates, experts say.

May 9, 2014

Investment Grin Of The Day

May 9, 2014May 9, 2014

Financial Media Warns: Financial Markets Are About To Make A Huge Move…..Guess The Direction

According to mainstream financial media (see the article below), we have been stuck is a very difficult and confusing sideways market. According to them, with most investors being impatient and with investor sentiment reaching a certain level, a big move is coming.

As true as that may be, their subsequent directional resolution, to everyone’s surprise, is to the upside. What else, as most financial media remains perpetually bullish. The real answer is a lot more complicated. What you are witnessing today is stock distribution prior to an eventual and steep bear market leg.

How do I know?

Such conclusion comes directly out of our mathematical and timing work. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

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Financial Media Warns: Financial Markets Are About To Make A Huge Move…..Guess The Direction Google

Breakout: Investor sentiment suggests a big move is coming

Market volatility has made doubters of us all. The the American Association of Individual Investorssurvey for the week ending May 7th showed 28.3% ‘bulls,’ 28.7% ‘bears’ and a whopping 43% of respondants ‘neutral.’ It’s the highest level of neutrality in more than 10 years.

It takes quite a bit to convince individual investors to not have an opinion about the market but that’s what the last two months have managed to do. “The market is just grinding,” saysoptionMONSTER’s Jon Najarian in the attached clip. “It’s been very easy to be in the wrong individual stocks.”

Case in point for Najarian is Twitter (TWTR) which he started buying on the way down, defying his own discipline and incurring a loss prior to a much-needed bounce (which came in shortly after this segment was taped). “The people that can’t decide, the ‘meh’ crowd, that’s probably been the right decision.”

As for the market as a whole history suggests a sharp move follows peaks in neutral sentiment. Going back to 2005 AAII neutral sentiment has pushed to 38 on 4 distinct prior occasions (August 2013, December 2011, November 2010 and December 2011). Looking at the S&P 500 (^GSPC) a month later showed greater than 4% moves each time over the subsequent 30 days.

Unfortunately for traders the back-test doesn’t give a clear sign. Three of the 1-month moves were up with one sharp drop. Still it’s a safe bet that American investors aren’t going to stay neutral for long. Look for Mr. Market to knock people into the bullish or bearish camps in short order.

May 9, 2014May 9, 2014

Russia Is Ready For A Nuclear War……Is Obama? Disturbing

As Russia celebrates it’s WWII victory day, this video of it’s massive war games a few days ago is a quick reminder to all of the jackasses and warmongers in Washington of the following. A war with Russia over an irrelevant nation 6,000 miles away from an American shore would be just a bit…just a bit….more difficult than blowing up a bunch of 1977 Toyota Pickups full of Taliban fighters with Chinese made AK-47’s or 1970 tanks in the deserts of Iraq.

That mobile ICBM nuclear missile (at 3 minute mark), the one that could be fired by two drunk Russian soldiers from the middle of Siberian taiga, splits into over 10 individual warheads upon re-entry and zigzags to it’s target. Russia claims it cannot be shot down. Real nasty stuff.

So, quickly, someone give Obama another Nobel peace prize as we start teaching our kids to “Duck and Cover” once again.

Point being, the US has no business meddling in Ukraine. What you are witnessing today is just the start. Eventually, the developments you see today will escalate as outlined in this report Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why . Too bad.

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Russia Is Ready For Nuclear War……Is Obama? Disturbing Google

May 8, 2014May 9, 2014

Daily Stock Market Update. May 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

Another mixed day with the Dow Jones up 32 points (+0.20%) and the Nasdaq down 16 points (-0.40%).

While the Dow has been, more or less, stuck in a trading range since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have a clearly defined short-term bearish trend associated with them. Further, both indices are approaching their respective and important support levels. If broken, it would be a clear warning sign for the overall market.

With multiple undercurrents traversing the market, which index presents us with a better preview of what is to come for the overall market and the US Economy as a whole ……. the Dow or the Nasdaq?

It depends on the market environment we are in. In this particular case I believe the Nasdaq will be our leading indicator due to its overall level of overvaluation, speculation and recent market action.

This is further confirmed by our mathematical and timing work, showing that a severe bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner.When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

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Daily Stock Market Update. May 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

May 8, 2014

Investment Grin Of The Day

May 8, 2014May 8, 2014

The Reason Why Tesla (TSLA) Is Going Back To $40. Disturbing

Tesla Motors (TSLA) quarterly results released last night were, more or less, disappointing. With it’s stock price down 10% in pre-market, I continue to believe the worst is yet to come.

Those looking for fundamental reasons to explain the decline need to understand something. Just as there was no fundamental reason for the company to run up from $40 to $250 in 10 months, there is no need for a fundamental reason to drive it back to $40. However, here are a few.

First, Tesla is severely overpriced. Just to give an indication, it is selling at 12X Revenue Vs Apple (another high flyer) selling at just 2.7X its revenue. The bottom line is, no one really knows what Tesla’s real value is. Second, as per our mathematical and timing work the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. Extremely overpriced high flyers like Tesla tend to do poorly in such bear markets.

In this case, if you would like to make money on Tesla you have to look at the charts. With an upcoming bear market of 2014-2017, a severe recession, overvaluation and it’s technical setup I believe Tesla will see $40-50/share before it sees $250 again (if ever). In fact, we follow the stock and have a position in it in our Subscriber section if you need more information.

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The Reason Why Tesla (TSLA) Is Going Back To $40. Disturbing Google

Reuters: Tesla outlook disappoints some on Wall St, shares drop 7 percent

DETROIT (Reuters) – Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA), led by billionaire Elon Musk, on Wednesday offered an outlook for the second quarter that disappointed some investors,

Tesla posted a higher-than-expected first-quarter operating profit and said its operating automotive gross margins in the current quarter would increase slightly. S&P Capital IQ analyst Efraim Levy called the outlook a disappointment, saying investors had hoped for something better.

The Palo Alto, California-based company reported a first-quarter net loss of almost $50 million, compared with last year’s first-ever quarterly profit.

Tesla said it would spend up to $850 million this year to boost production capacity of its Model S luxury electric sedan, develop the Model X crossover vehicle and start construction of a new lithium-ion battery plant, dubbed the “gigafactory.” It said that would leave the company with a negative free cash flow for 2014.

Like other so-called momentum stocks, Tesla’s shares have fallen recently and at the close of the market on Wednesday were down more than 20 percent from an all-time of $265 in mid-February. In after-hours activity, Tesla shares traded at $187.07, after closing at $201.35.

The company said the project to begin production of lithium-ion batteries at the plant is on course for 2017.

“We have not yet finalized the ultimate location for the gigafactory and we are going to start work on at least two locations in parallel in order to minimize risk of delays arising after groundbreaking,” Musk said in a letter to shareholders posted online.

He also said discussions with battery supplier Panasonic Corp and other potential partners for the plant “continue to go well and we are pleased with the high interest level in the project.” Analysts have said Tesla needs to get the plans for the plant finalized soon if it wants to meet its 2017 production target.

Excluding one-time items, Tesla earned $17 million, or 12 cents a share, in the quarter, two cents better than what analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S had expected. The results included a currency gain of $6.7 million.

On a net basis, Tesla lost $49.8 million, or 40 cents a share, compared with a profit last year of $11.25 million, or 10 cents a share. Net revenue rose 10 percent from last year to almost $621 million, while operating revenue was up 27 percent at $713 million.

Tesla said it delivered 6,457 Model S cars in the first quarter, slightly above the 6,400 it had forecast in February. It also reiterated its full-year delivery target of more than 35,000 cars, including its forecast of about 7,500 cars in the second quarter.

Tesla also said battery cell supply will still constrain company vehicle production in the second quarter but that situation should improve in the third quarter.

May 8, 2014November 7, 2014