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Why Is Obama Administration Desperate For War? Disturbing

I continue to be amazed and dumbfounded as to what exactly the US is doing in Ukraine. The situation that was a non issue just two months ago has now escalated to a point where there is a real possibility that the US and Russia might somehow end up in a direct military conflict over an irrelevant nation (no offense to Ukraine) that is over 6,000 miles away from an American shore. WTF?

Also note, the EU has backed away to sit quietly in the corner as the US and Russia get closer to tearing Ukraine into little pieces. Should there be a direct conflict with Russia, the EU economy will collapse in short order without Russia’s natural gas. Now, let’s take democracy, freedom, rainbows and unicorns for the Ukrainian people BS off the table. Here are the real drives behind Ukraine and all of them lead back to the White House, not Kremlin.

  • The Obama Administration is desperate to get back at Putin after Putin played Obama like a cheap flute in regards to both Syria and Iran.
  • With wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are now over, the US Industrial Military Complex needs a new enemy. The bigger the better.
  • NATO expansion and warmongers in Washington need something to do.

Anyway, here is the latest and what you need to know as we get closer to war. 

If you don’t believe the markets will react to an actual conflict in Ukraine in a wildly negative way,you are about to lose a lot of money. 

ukraine conflict

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Why Is Obama Administration Desperate For War? Disturbing  Google

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Stock Market Update. April 24th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

margin debt2 investwithalex

A volatile day with the Dow Jones up 0.1 points (0.00%) and the Nasdaq up 21 points (0.52%).

The chart above (courtesy of Elliot Wave) contains everything you need to know about the state of today’s stock market. In a nutshell, today’s stock market is being driven by excessive levels of speculation with a smidge of margin debt.  Well, a record $178 Billion of margin debt to be exact.

While we have talked about margin debt before, this chart drives the point home. Most investors have overextended themselves at exactly the wrong time (as they always do). With margin debt levels being substantially higher than their 2000 and 2007 stock market top counterparts, the near term outlook for the stock market is anything but bright.

This is further confirmed by our mathematical and timing work. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). 

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Stock Market Update. April 24th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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Shocking Secret Revealed: Why Facebook’s Earnings Are Irrelevant & Why It’s Stock About To Crash

Even though Facebook (FB) reported very impressive results for Q1 ($2.5 Billion in revenue and 72% growth y-o-y), the only place it’s stock price is heading is south….way south. While we can talk about the fundamentals, growth projections, user engagement, mobile Vs. PC, acquisition, new revenue streams, etc…… none of such things are relevant to what will happen to Facebook’s stock price over the next 2 years. Here is why……

  • Highly Speculative & Overpriced: Facebook is selling at about 20 X revenue. I don’t care what the growth or it’s future is, this valuation is extreme. Just as a reference point, two other highly overpriced and speculative companies, Apple (AAPL)  and Tesla (TSLA) are selling at 2.6X  and 12X revenue. Putting Facebook in a league of it own.
  • We Are On A Verge Of A Massive Bear Market: Based on our mathematical and timing work the bear market of 2014-2017 is about to start. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. High flyers like Facebook will suffer the most. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

In conclusion, based on a simple premise above we believe that Facebook (FB) will see the $20-25 range over the next two years. Basically, at today’s valuation levels, their growth story becomes inconsequential.  As you can imagine, right now would be a good time to sell or better yet, go short.

facebook

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Shocking Secret Revealed: Why Facebook’s Earnings Are Irrelevant & Why It’s Stock Price About To Crash Google

Reuters: Facebook’s next growth engines still warming up

By Alexei Oreskovic

SAN FRANCISCO, April 23 (Reuters) – Facebook Inc has a message for Wall Street: Don’t expect new revenue streams anytime soon.

The world’s No. 1 Internet social network delivered its strongest revenue growth in several years during the first quarter, as its mobile ad business gained steam.

But even as Facebook gave investors the good news, buoying its stock by roughly 3 percent in after-hours trading, the company made it clear that other money-making efforts such as video ads and ads within its Instagram photo-sharing app would not bear fruit in the near future.

“That will probably be the most disappointing statement to come out of the call,” said Macquarie Research analyst Ben Schachter. “Many folks were anticipating a next leg of growth.”

Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg told analysts on a conference call on Wednesday that Instagram ads, video ads and a nascent mobile ad network were all still in experimental phases and that none of them would make a meaningful contribution to revenue in 2014.

That may dash the hopes of some investors, who had expected Instagram to start generating revenue two years after Facebook acquired it for $1 billion.

“We’re very focused on consumer growth, and we move slowly and deliberately in monetization,” Sandberg said, referring to the limited number of ads on Instagram. “We don’t see the need or the urge to ramp this as quickly as we possibly can.”

Facebook is also going slow with auto-play video ads. Facebook said earlier this year it would allow a small group of advertisers to display 15-second video ads on Facebook, but Sandberg said on Wednesday the company was still gauging users’ response and was in no hurry to open the service up broadly to advertisers.

The comments are likely to cause financial analysts and investors to re-appraise Facebook’s near-term prospects. In notes to investors released prior to Wednesday’s earnings report, Morgan Stanley estimated that video ads could contribute $900 million to Facebook’s top line this year, while Cowen & Co targeted $1 billion in video ad revenue.

Shares of Facebook remained up in after hours trading, even after the company warned that its advertising revenue growth would slow throughout the year, as it faces tougher year-on-year comparisons.

Investors are willing to give Facebook some leeway, given its strong performance building the mobile ad business, said Macquarie’s Schacther.

“They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt, that even if it doesn’t come this quarter, or the next quarter, that it will come,” he said of the company’s additional revenue opportunities.

TURNAROUND

Facebook’s newsfeed ads, which inject paid marketing messages straight into a user’s stream of news and content, have ignited Facebook’s revenue growth and bolstered its stock price during the past year. The ads are ideally suited for the smaller-sized screens of smartphones and other mobile devices.

Facebook said mobile ads contributed 59 percent of its ad revenue in the first quarter, up from 30 percent in the year-ago period. Facebook’s overall revenue grew 72 percent year-on-year to $2.5 billion in the first quarter, above the $2.36 billion expected by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Facebook’s first-quarter results underscore how far the company has come since its rocky 2012 initial public offering, when concerns about slowing revenue growth cut its stock price in half. At the time, investors questioned Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s commitment to the financial side of the business, spooked by the hoodie-wearing founder’s comments about that Facebook does not build services to make money, but rather that it makes money to build better services.

Many of the key investor concerns about Facebook’s ability to transition its ad business to mobile phones and a perception that consumers were cutting back their time on the social network have been dispelled, said FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi.

He noted the proportion of Facebook users who access the site daily increased to nearly 63 percent in the first quarter, up from 61.5 percent at the end of 2013.

“If you look at user growth, engagement rates and monetization, the three key levers of value, Facebook delivered on all three,” he said.

While Seyrafi said he believed Instagram has the potential to turn into a near-term money-maker, he said he was not concerned by Facebook’s comments.

“All these things are new shoots of growth for the company,” Seyrafi said. “But I think that they want to deliver first and report it afterwards, rather than guiding beforehand.” (Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic; Editing by Richard Chang)

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100% Of Economists Agree Yields Will Rise. What That Means Should Send Chills Down Your Spine

When 100% of surveyed economists expect yields to rise you better perk up and pay attention. From a contrarian point of view.  In Bloomberg’s recently conducted survey, 67 out of 67 Economists expect interest rates to rise over the next 6 months. In other words, they expect continued economic growth and an eventual tightening by the FED.

That flies in the face of our forecast. In the past I have shown that we expect yields to fall and the yield curve to flatten as the US Economy falls into a severe recession between 2014-2017 What Does The Yield Curve Yield?  In fact, over the next 12 months the FED will be looking for ways to stimulate the economy and to print, instead of tightening. As far as I am concerned, 100% of the economists agreeing on the opposite is a direct validation of that view.

Don’t forget, our mathematical and timing work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it begins to develop, it is only rational that yields decline. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

10 Year Note Chart

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100% Of Economists Agree Yields Will Rise. What That Means Should Send Chills Down Your Spine  Google

Market Watch: 100% of economists think yields will rise within six months

Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year.

Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, points out in a market comment Tuesday that a survey of 67 economists this month shows every single one of them expects the 10-year Treasury  10_YEAR +0.41% yield to rise in the next six months.

The survey, which is done each month by Bloomberg, has been notably bearish for some time now, with nearly everyone expecting rising rates. In March, 97% expected rising rates. In February, 95% expected yields to climb. And in January, 97% held that expectation. Since the beginning of 2009, there have only been a handful of instances where less than 50% expected rates to rise.

10_Year

Still, the fact that every single survey participant is bearish is striking. The last time the survey had that result was in May 2012, when benchmark yields were well below 2%.

“Literally there is maybe one economist in the United States straddling the bullish/bearish divide on interest rates. The rest are bearish,” Bianco writes.

He adds that a J.P. Morgan client survey shows that the percentage of money manager respondents who said they are underweight Treasurys is the second highest in seven years.

This is all the more surprising when we consider that investors went into 2014 thinking yields would rise significantly. Instead, the benchmark yield is lower than when the year started, as the market waded throw subpar economic data, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve. The 10-year note last traded at a yield of 2.72% on Tuesday, down from just over 3% on Dec. 31.

Then again, a separate poll of economists recently showed that exactly zero expect the economy to contract.

But when the entire market thinks one thing is about to happen, the opposite outcome is often in store, notes James Camp, managing director of fixed income at Eagle Asset Management. So don’t count out that result with Treasurys, he advises.

“It’s the most hated asset class,” says Camp, but Treasurys are some of the best performers year-to-date.

 

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Russian Powder Keg Is About To Blow Sky High. US Stock Market About To Collapse?

I continue to maintain that the situation in Ukraine is a ticking time bomb. With American troops landing in Poland and with the Ukrainian forces now attacking Pro-Russian strongholds in East Ukraine, it’s just a matter of time before Russia “officially” invades. I say officially because Russia troops are already operating and technically in control of East Ukraine. Here is the latest and what you need to know.

Let’s see how markets react when this powder keg blows sky high. 


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Russian Powder Keg About To Blow Sky High. US Stock Market About To Collapse?  Google

 

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Stock Market Update. April 23rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 23 2014

A negative day with the Dow Jones down 13 points (-0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 34 points (-0.83%). 

The Dow volume remained low as share distribution continued. Even though both the S&P and the Dow are sitting just a smidge away from their all time highs, that in itself doesn’t tell the whole story. For instance, please note a possible head and shoulder technical pattern developing on the Dow. All we need now is a quick leg to the downside to finish a textbook head and shoulders. Such patterns, of course, are indicative and most often seen at stock market tops. What follows thereafter is typically fairly ugly.

This sort of thinking is further confirmed by our mathematical and timing work as it continues to show that the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner.  When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). 

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Tech Bubble 2.0 Is Here: Why High Flyers Will Collapse To The Tune Of 70-90%. Scary!

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital certainly thinks so…… 

“Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years. What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it. The current bubble is an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm,” The firm said it was shorting a group of undisclosed “high-flying momentum stocks.”

We have maintained the same view for quite some time now. With unprecedented level of speculation, overvaluation, FED printing, IPO insanity and asset price inflation, today’s fundamental situation is not that dissimilar to 2007 top.  And while Mr. Einhorn is not particularly sure about the timing, we are.

The upcoming collapse in high flying tech specs will unfold in short order as our mathematical and timing work indicates. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

fab 5 stocks

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Tech Bubble 2.0 Is Here: Why High Flyers Will Collapse To The Tune Of 70-90%. Scary! Google

CNBC Writes: Einhorn: Bubble brewing, shorting momentum stocks

David Einhorn has a clear warning for technology investors: we’re in a bubble.

“Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years,” Greenlight Capital said in an investor letter Tuesday. “What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it.”

The firm said there were several indications of the over-exuberance, including the rejection of conventional valuation methods; short sellers forced to cover their positions because of losses; and “huge” first-day stock appreciations after their initial public offerings.

“The current bubble is an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm,” the letter said. The firm said it was shorting a group of undisclosed “high-flying momentum stocks.”

A spokesman for Greenlight declined to comment.

The firm also disclosed a number of new long positions, including retailer Conn’s (CONN), Japanese regional bank Resona Holdings and solar plant company SunEdison (SUNE). Shares of Conn’s and SunEdison rose sharply on the news. The firm also closed four short positions: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Fortescue Metals Group(ASX:FMG-AU), Loblaw Cos. (Toronto Stock Exchange: L-CA) and Michael Kors Holdings (KORS). All lost the firm money, according to the letter.

Greenlight’s main fund fell 1.5 percent in the first quarter, according to the letter. The largest winner was a long bet on Micron Technology (MU) and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), a short, was the most significant loser.

The firm’s largest long positions at the end of March were Alpha Bank, Apple (AAPL), gold, Marvell Technology(MRVL) and Micron.

Separate from its stock holdings, Greenlight discussed its trading costs because of the high-frequency trading concerns raised in the new book, “Flash Boys.”

The firm said the abuses described in the Michael Lewis book “don’t significantly impact us” but said it supports new alternative trading platform IEX. Greenlight said it holds a small stake in the exchange, which has styled itself as a safer place to trade for investors worried about HFT front running.

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What You Ought To Know About America’s Constant State Of War. Disturbing.

I cringe, just a little bit, when I pay my taxes. Not because of the dollar values involved, but because I realize that a small portion of the proceeds goes towards waging warfare and killing thousands of people (100K-500K death in Iraq alone) in countries most Americans can’t even identify on a map. Today, the Obama administration, the industrial military complex and the warmongers throughout the US are hell bent on restarting the Cold War over an irrelevant nation 6,000 miles from an American shore. Here is the latest and what you need to know…..

While most Americans could care less, they should. Short-term, this conflict with Russia will have an impact on the US Economy and our capital markets. Long-term, we will face something so horrific that WWII will look like a picnic. I have already outlined the future in my comprehensive report Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why. Please note how accurately my “fundamental” predictions are lining up with what’s happening in the real world. nuclear explosion Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Click here to subscribe to my mailing list   What You Ought To Know About America’s Constant State Of War. Disturbing.  Google AFP Writes: Do not hurt Russian people with sanctions: Jimmy Carter

Paris (AFP) – Former US president Jimmy Carter said Tuesday the West should not impose sanctions that would hurt the Russian people over their leaders’ actions in Ukraine.

“So far, we have limited the sanctions to the leadership of Russia, and I think that is the proper approach,” the Nobel peace laureate told AFP on the sidelines of a discussion in Paris on climate change.

“I don’t think we would go so far as to impose sanctions that would hurt the Russian people.”

The statesman was taking part in a meeting with students as a member of The Elders group set up to promote human rights around the world.

US Vice President Joe Biden earlier warned Russia of “more costs” and “greater isolation” if it continued to “pull Ukraine apart”.

Carter, who is credited with brokering the 1978 Cape David peace accords between Egypt and Israel and establishing US diplomatic relations with China, said Russia’s takeover of Crimea had been “inevitable”.

“I don’t think anything could have been done by the US or European countries or anyone else to prevent that eventuality.

“Russia has always considered Crimea to be part of Russia.”

And he said: “my hope and my belief is that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is not going to use military force” in eastern Ukraine.

“He is going to try to use other means to convince those people who live there that their best option is to cast their lot more towards Russia than towards the West. So I don’t think there is anything we can do that is going to deter Putin.”

Carter said Ukrainians must be allowed to decide their own fate.

And he said he hoped they would be supported by Russia from the East and the United States and Europe from the West so as to “not be torn between the two.”

The US and European Union have imposed targeted sanctions on members of Putin’s inner circle over the crisis and Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. They have threatened more wide-ranging measures as tensions over the former Soviet republic continue to spiral.

nuclear explosion