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Stock Market Update. April 22nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 22 2014

Another up day with the Dow Jones up 65 points (0.40%) and the Nasdaq up 40 points (0.97%).

By now, the trauma bottom of a week ago is a long distant memory. With the Dow and the S&P approaching their all time highs the bull market is back on. Or is it? Not to rain on bulls parade but the current rally has all of the trademarks associated with a bear market rally. Low volume, short covering, divergences and sharp advances. While we are not in a technical bear market (not by any traditional measure anyway) it would pay off to start paying close attention to a possibility of a roll over.

In fact, our mathematical and timing work continues to show that the bear market is just around the corner.  When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). 

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Stock Market Update. April 22nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

The US Economy Is On Fire. Stocks About To Surge Lower?

According to CNBC and Jim Paulsen the US economy is on fire. No surprise there. 

“We’re just getting the spring thaw, and we’re going to get better numbers,” Paulsen said on “ Squawk on the Street .” “If you look aggregately at the economy it’s been awful good. The market is going to pay more attention to the economic reports out right on the ground, outside their windshield, than it is through the rearview mirror at an earnings season that everyone knows was highly distorted by the weather,” Paulsen said. 

Unfortunately, Mr. Paulsen suffers from a case of mass delusion. While the economy might look good on the surface, it is anything but. Again, most of the economic growth we have seen over the last few years has been driven by a massive amount of speculative credit infused into our economy by the FED. A lot of it flowing directly into the real estate and the stock market to cause massive asset bubbles. Further, our mathematical and timing work does not share in the optimism. It clearly shows that a severe bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. I have a funny feeling that Mr. Paulsen will see the S&P at 1,200 before he sees it at 2,000

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The US Economy Is On Fire. Stocks About To Surge Lower?  Google

CNBC: This pushes S&P toward 2,000: Jim Paulsen

Economic growth has picked up as business activity thaws out from a frigid winter, investment strategist Jim Paulsen told CNBC on Monday, and that could push Wall Street past the recent volatility and into record highs.

Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, said he believes the U.S. economy is growing at a 4 percent clip in the second quarter of 2014. The Commerce Department will release GDP estimates for 2014’s first quarter at the end of the month. Paulsen said the pickup in economic activity will boost the S&P 500 (INDEX:^GSPC – News) past an all-time high of 1,900 and toward 2,000 points.

“We’re just getting the spring thaw, and we’re going to get better numbers,” Paulsen said on “ Squawk on the Street .” “If you look aggregately at the economy it’s been awful good.”

Economic conditions will hold more weight than the flood of earning reports hitting Wall Street this week, Paulsen said. The biggest factor coming out of earnings season will be forecasts, he added.

“The market is going to pay more attention to the economic reports out right on the ground, outside their windshield, than it is through the rearview mirror at an earnings season that everyone knows was highly distorted by the weather,” Paulsen said.

The department is scheduled to release the advance second-quarter GDP estimate on July 30.

Paulsen added that the boost stocks receive from the strengthening economy could turn into too much of good thing. The Federal Reserve could find itself fighting inflation as bond yields rise and as Wall Street deals with a “mini-overheat panic,” he said.

“Before the year is out, we’re going to bring the Fed back into the equation in a big way,” Paulsen said. “What’s going to do that is economic growth. … There’s a part of me that thinks we’re stirring an overheat cocktail here.”

On the other hand, UBS’ senior vice president of investments, Jim Lacamp, told CNBC the economy may end this year where it started, at around 2.5 percent growth.

“The economy to me is not a runaway economy,” Lacamp said during a later appearance on “Squawk on the Street.” “It seems to be more of a runaway bride economy. Every year we get some promise in the economy and everybody’s optimistic. And then by the end of the year we end up right where we were.”

Read More Earnings are beating estimates-but don’t be fooled

Lacamp believes the markets could still end the year higher. Though he warned investors to remain wary over a variety of factors: rising prices, a poor earnings season so far and stagnant wage growth.

“I don’t want to sound too negative,” Lacamp said. “I think the market goes higher by the end of the year, but over the next several months we’ve got a lot to work through economically.”

Is Inflation Really Around The Corner This Time Around?

According to the gentleman below, inflation and higher interest rates are just around the corner. But don’t worry, based on his analysis it will not derail the current economic recovery nor the bull market. It will only accelerate it.

Our mathematical and timing work tends to disagree. Even though some food prices are surging higher, CPI index remains below 1%.  In fact, most of the inflation we have seen over the last few years went right into our capital markets in the form of asset price appreciation. When the bear market of 2014-2017 kicks into it’s high gear you will very quickly see all inflationary pressures turn deflationary. Eventually, we will see inflation, but it won’t be before 2017.

deflation is here investwithalex

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Is Inflation Really Around The Corner This Time Around? Google

Breakout:  Believe the hype, inflation really is coming this time

“Inflation is coming!” We’ve heard it for what seems to be forever. Then came the report of the March leading economic index for March. It increased by 0.8% after rising 0.5% in February. It’s just the latest data point in a series of indicators that Hugh Johnson of Hugh Johnson Advisors says is evidence that this time inflation really is coming.

“We’re not talking about 3% or even 4% inflation,” Johnson told Breakout, “but we are talking about inflation rates as measured by the consumer price index of say 2.1% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015. That’s stronger than the consensus and certainly stronger than Janet Yellen thinks is on the way.”

So what does that mean for Yellen and a Fed who have kept rates effectively at zero for as long as many young investors can recall?

Johnson says:

I think when you get to about the middle of 2015…you’re gonna start to see unemployment rate which are gonna be very low, somewhere around 6%, you’re gonna see inflation rates as I mentioned are gonna be a little bit higher and that’s when the Federal Reserve is gonna consider very seriously about raising it’s target for the federal funds rate from the 0-25 basis points to as much as the 25-50 basis point range.

That would force interest rates across the board higher, including the 10-year treasury Johnson notes.

Even is he’s right Johnson cautions investors not to radically alter their portfolios.

“Interest rates are still going to be historically low at this level…it’s not going to derail the bull market,” he says before reiterating investors should stay in stocks here.

Yes inflation may finally start to become a problem, but not a big one according to Johnson.

Netflix Beats. Should You Pawn Your Liver To Buy More Shares?

Netflix is on fire after beating it’s earnings by 3 cents.  The company earned $1.27 billion (24% growth) in revenue for the quarter and surpassed 35 million subscribers. All in all, a very impressive quarter, growth and future. The stock is up 7% at market open.

So, should you sell your firstborn or pawn you liver to buy more Netflix shares? 

No. First, the stock is incredibly overpriced by any fundamental measure. More importantly, we are on the verge of a massive bear markets that will last between 2014-2017. This bear market will be particularly hard on the high flyers such as Netflix, Tesla, Facebook, etc… When we look at Netflix chart, it has a number of large gaps leading all the way down to $100/share. In short, it must close such gaps (including today’s gap) before any sustained rally can take place.

Given our mathematical and timing work, we would expect to see $50-100 for Netflix before we see $500/share as some analyst expect. As such, it might make sense to pawn your liver to short Netflix.

What mathematical and timing work? Our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

netflix2-investwithalex

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Netflix Beats. Should You Pawn Your Liver To Buy More Shares?   Google

Netflix Inc Delivers Strong Earnings and International Growth, Sending Shares on a Wild Ride

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) just released results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2014. The price of Netflix shares fluctuated wildly on the news, first falling as much as 6.1% before rising 7.8% above Monday’s closing price.

Management guidance for the first quarter had pointed to 2.25 million net new domestic subscribers and 1.6 million new international accounts. These numbers had been expected to drive earnings to $0.78 per share. The domestic forecast turned out to be spot-on while Netflix snagged 1.75 million new international accounts in the quarter, thus exceeding the midpoint of official guidance overall.

Netflix now has 35.7 million streaming members in the U.S. and 12.7 million international members.

All in all, Netflix saw revenues increase 24% year over year to $1.27 billion. GAAP earnings per share jumped from $0.05 per share to $0.86 per share.

Revenues were in line with analyst estimates. Netflix exceeded Wall Street’s earnings targets by $0.3 per share.

Looking ahead, Netflix cited seasonal patterns and the 2014 FIFA World Cup limiting subscriber additions in the second quarter. The company should add about 0.11 million domestic subscribers and 0.9 million international additions in the current quarter, it said.

Moreover, Netflix now expects the international segment to turn profitable by the end of 2014. However, a “substantial expansion into new European markets,” slated for the second half of the year, will drag the division back into red-ink territory.

Expect this pattern to continue as long as Netflix sees new overseas growth opportunities: “As we’ve discussed in prior investor letters, we intend to continue our international expansion over the coming years, so our near term profits will be quite modest as we invest in this large global opportunity,” management said in a prepared statement.

Netflix said it is preparing to raise its Internet video subscription prices by as much as $2 per month this summer for new members. The price increase will be imposed on new customers by July. The company said current U.S. subscribers will continue to pay $7.99 per month for a “generous time period.”

Why Is The Obama Administration Standing With The New Neo-Nazi Government In Ukraine? I Am Outraged

I won’t go into too much detail here and I encourage you to research the subject matter at hand on your own accord, but here is what you need to know about Ukraine’s new government. Maidan, a right wing subset of Ukrainian politics is a scum of the earth that follows neo-nazi ideology. Just to give you an idea, this same subset of Ukrainian population joined the invading German army in 1941 and happily proceeded to go on a killing spree, helping the German SS kill millions of Jews, Russians and Ukrainians.

My question is……What the fuck is Joe Biden doing in Ukraine proclaiming his undying love and support for such a government? Unfortunately, you know the answer to that. The US Government, the industrial military complex and the warmongers throughout the US are hell bent on starting some some sort of conflict with Russia over an irrelevant nation 6,000 miles away from an American shore.

U.S. says will act ‘in days’ if no Russian action in Ukraine

I have said it before and I will say it again. Any further sanctions against Russia will escalate this conflict to no end. If you believe that Russia will not respond in kind and the US financial markets will not feel the impact, well, you are about to lose a lot of money.

 

 

biden in Ukraine

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Why Is The Obama Administration Standing With The New Neo-Nazi Government In Ukraine? I Am Outraged Google

Reuters: U.S. says will act ‘in days’ if no Russian action in Ukraine

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States’ government said on Monday it will decide “in days” on additional sanctions if Russia does not take steps to implement an agreement to ease tensions in Ukraine reached in Geneva last week.

The steps include publicly calling on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to vacate occupied buildings and checkpoints, accept an amnesty and address their grievances politically, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.

“If they don’t take steps in the coming days, there’ll be consequences,” she said at a Monday news briefing. “Obviously, we would have to make a decision in the matter of – in a matter of days – if there are going to be consequences for inaction.”

Some U.S. lawmakers have been clamoring for President Barack Obama’s administration to impose stiff new sanctions on Russia’s energy industry and major banks to encourage President Vladimir Putin to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border and discourage further Russian incursions into Ukrainian territory.

“I think it’s time to move on the next round of sanctions,” Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy told Reuters on Monday, although he added that he backed giving Moscow two to three days to implement the Geneva agreement.

“I think it is important to explore diplomatic solutions when they potentially become available,” the Democratic chairman of the Senate’s Europe subcommittee said in a telephone interview.

“The Russians were willing to sit down in Geneva for the first time across the table from their Ukrainian counterparts, I think that discussion was worthwhile. I don’t think the jury is fully in on the Geneva agreement,” he said.

‘GOING TO LOSE EASTERN UKRAINE’

Some members of Congress have made it clear they do not believe sanctions already in place – such as travel restrictions on individuals announced by the Obama administration – will stop Moscow.

“I think we’re going to lose eastern Ukraine if we continue as we are,” U.S. Senator Bob Corker, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on NBC television’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.

Washington and Moscow each put the onus on the other to ensure tensions are eased in the worst confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

“If there’s no progress, we remain prepared, along with our European and G-7 partners, to impose additional costs. So there’ll need to be decisions made in a matter of days,” Psaki said.

In a telephone call on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asked U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to “influence Kiev, not let hotheads there provoke a bloody conflict, and impel the current Ukrainian leadership to fulfill its obligations unflaggingly,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.

But Kerry said casting doubt on Ukraine’s commitment to the accord “flies in the face of the facts,” according to Psaki.

Ukraine has sent senior representatives to the east with representatives from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), put forth an amnesty bill for separatists to give up public buildings and weapons and called an Easter pause in military operations, Kerry said.

“He asked that Russia now demonstrate an equal level of commitment to the Geneva agreement in both its rhetoric and its actions,” Psaki said, such as by sending its own senior representative to work with the OSCE.

Kerry also asked Russia to join the United States in seeking the release of Imra Krat, a Ukrainian journalist being held by pro-Russian separatists in the eastern part of the country, she said.

Stock Market Update. April 21st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 21 2014

A positive day with the Dow Jones up 41 points (0.25%) and the Nasdaq up 26 points (0.64%). 

With today’s close being just a few points away from Wednesday, April 16th close, the DOW is flat lining. This is indicative of either a pause in a rally or a slow roll over into the next bear leg. Yet, what the market does on the day-to-day basis is somewhat irrelevant. What you have to ask yourself is where we are in the overall cyclical composition of the stock market. If you study the stock market all the way back to May of 1790 (when it first started trading) you would eventually come to a realization that the bear market that started on January 14th, 2000 is NOT technically over. You would also realize that most bear markets end with a severe 2-3 year down markets. (Ex: 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1980-1982).

This is further confirmed by our mathematical/timing work and it’s application to the current bear market. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Stock Market Update. April 21st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

Shiller Warns On Everything. What His CAPE Index Predicts Will Demolish All Of Your Recovery Hopes. Amazing

An outright collapse in the US Economy and our capital markets -OR- no capital appreciation over the next 10 Years? Choose your poison. While a terrible timing tool, Shiller’s CAPE index suggests that the stock market in incredibly overpriced. Shiller states……..

“Even though it’s high, I still think stocks ought to be part of someone’s portfolio … We’re just not living in the best of times. Momentum is weakening in housing, stocks look overpriced, bonds are paying poorly — there’s risk there too. There’s no easy way to win in this market, so I’m thinking you have diversify and probably keep something in stocks.”

While CAPE is worthless at identifying timing, our mathematical and timing work tends to be more precise. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

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Shiller Warns On Everything. What His CAPE Index Predicts Will Demolish All Of Your Recovery Hopes. Amazing Google

Daily Ticker Writes: Shiller: CAPE ratio is high but you should still own stocks

Stocks started Monday in positive territory after taking a break from the selling last week when the Dow (^DJI) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) both rose 2.4%, posting their biggest weekly gains since December and November,respectively. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) meanwhile rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly gain since last July. And indexes tracking sectors that have been hard-hit recently including biotech and Internet stocks climbed more than 3%.

So what’s next?

Some market watchers have pointed to Yale professor and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shlller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio, or CAPE, to raise concerns that stocks are expensive. The Daily Ticker’s Henry Blodget has used this datapoint in his argument that we’re likely to have lousy returns for the next seven to 10 years or possibly a severe pullback shorter term (he points out that valuation measures are a terrible timing tool). 

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In the accompanying video, Shiller tells us that the “CAPE index is rather high,” but adds that this ratio first achieved public prominence when he and his colleague presented it to the Federal Reserve board in 1996. He says CAPE was kind of high then too, but then it kept going up for almost three more years.

Shiller’s takeaway? “Even though it’s high, I still think stocks ought to be part of someone’s portfolio … We’re just not living in the best of times. Momentum is weakening in housing, stocks look overpriced, bonds are paying poorly — there’s risk there too. There’s no easy way to win in this market, so I’m thinking you have diversify and probably keep something in stocks.”

Check out the accompanying video to see why he is wary of the hype surrounding tech stocks, and if he thinks the market is rigged due to the advantages exploited by high-frequency traders as Michael Lewis posits in his new book Flash Boys.

Russell 2000 Spells Out A Disturbing Trend For The Market Going Forward. This Will Upset You.

Despite the S&P making an all time high just a few weeks ago, the move wasn’t confirmed by the Russelll 2000 index. This was the first occurrence since this bull leg initiated in March of 2009. Not only that, but the Russell 2000 shifted into a technical downtrend. Just as the Nasdaq did. This sort of behavior is typical at major turning points as small caps tend to be more sensitive to the change in the underlying market current.

This is further confirmed by our mathematical and timing work. Again, our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

russell 200

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Russell 2000 Spells Out A Disturbing Trend For The Market Going Forward. This Will Upset You. Google

Talking Numbers: This chart explains why we could be in trouble

This is a big warning for stocks.

About one-third of the entire Dow Jones industrial average will report their quarterly earnings this week including such important names as McDonald’s, AT&T, Boeing, Procter & Gamble, Microsoft and Visa, among others.

Of the 83 companies in the S&P 500 index that reported quarterly results as of Thursday morning, 62.7 percent have beat expectations, 14.5 percent met expectations and 22.9 percent came in below expectations.

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According to CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, the market can expect earnings to beat expectations because they’ve been guided lower by companies. However, investors should pay attention to the earnings numbers themselves rather than

“We’re looking at really, really, really low expectations—one of the lowest in a very long time as far as quarterly earnings go,” said Sanchez. “So, if we don’t beat these earnings numbers, it would really spell trouble. While earnings numbers probably will be bad, they’ll still look pretty relative to expectations.”

For that reason, Sanchez says investors should look deeper this quarter. “I expect we’re going to see a lot of earnings beats,” she said. “But we need to pay attention to the actual numbers rather than just the beats this time around.”

Meanwhile, Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., foresees a drop in stocks based on the technicals but a long-term buying opportunity ahead nonetheless.

“I’m still playing by bull market rules so I’m a buyer before a seller,” said Wald. “Having said that, from a trading perspective there will be some better opportunities to buy stocks in the coming months. I think we’re setting up for another one of these seasonal bull market corrections.”

What has Wald concerned is that since the start of 2013, every new high in the large-cap S&P 500 was met by a new high in the small-cap Russell 2000. However, in April 2014, a new high by the S&P 500 wasn’t met by a similar new high in the Russell 2000.

“We are seeing some sluggishness in the Russell 2000,” said Wald. “Something to keep an eye out for [is if] this one-month divergence becomes a multimonth divergence. It’s much more worrisome.”

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Since the Russell 2000 is just about at its 200-day moving average, according to Wald there’s one strategy for traders to take. “I’d look to lighten up on small caps and reallocate into larger-cap names,” said Wald.

To see the full discussion on the S&P 500, with Sanchez on the fundamentals and Ross on the technicals, watch the video above.

Let’s Give Glen Greenwald A Round Of Applaus For Winning The Pulitzer Prize While Making Obama Administration & The NSA Scumbags Foam At The Mouth

We continue to maintain that Edward Snowden and Glen Greenwald are true American heroes for exposing Obama Administration and the NSA scumbags for spying on the American people. Let’s give them a round of applause and congrats on winning the prize.