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The Secret Behind The Bond Markets Blood Bath. The Bets Big Banks Are Making Are Seriously Wrong. Wow.

Major Wall Street firms find themselves on a losing side of a bond trade as the yield curve continues to flatten. While most economists and market participants continue to believe that yields will surge as the FED tightens, that is an idiotic view to have. Why? There won’t be any tightening by the FED.

As our mathematical and timing work indicates, the bear market of 2014-20017 is about to start, when it does the FED will be looking for ways to re-inflate the markets and inject stimulus, not to tighten. Under such circumstances you will witness interest rates come down while the yield curve flattens further. We are beginning to see just that. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE. 

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The Secret Behind The Bond Markets Blood Bath. The Bets Big Banks Are Making Are Seriously Wrong. Wow. Google

Bloomberg Writes: Wall Street Bond Dealers Whipsawed on Bearish Treasuries Bet

Betting against U.S. government debt this year is turning out to be a fool’s errand. Just ask Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers.

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While the losses that their economists predicted have yet to materialize, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc. (C) and the 20 other firms that trade with the Federal Reserve began wagering on a Treasuries selloff last month for the first time since 2011. The strategy was upended as Fed ChairJanet Yellen signaled she wasn’t in a rush to lift interest rates, two weeks after suggesting the opposite at the bank’s March 19 meeting.

More from Bloomberg.com: $803,300 Chinese Car Goes on Sale

The surprising resilience of Treasuries has investors re-calibrating forecasts for higher borrowing costs as lackluster job growth and emerging-market turmoil push yields toward 2014 lows. That’s also made the business of trading bonds, once more predictable for dealers when the Fed was buying trillions of dollars of debt to spur the economy, less profitable as new rules limit the risks they can take with their own money.

“You have an uncertain Fed, an uncertain direction of the economy and you’ve got rates moving,” Mark MacQueen, a partner at Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which oversees $10 billion, said by telephone from Austin, Texas. In the past, “calling the direction of the market and what you should be doing in it was a lot easier than it is today, particularly for the dealers.”

Z31

More from Bloomberg.com: Pfizer Said to Have Held Now-Dormant Talks to Buy AstraZeneca

Treasuries (USGG10YR) have confounded economists who predicted 10-year yields would approach 3.4 percent by year-end as a strengthening economy prompts the Fed to scale back its unprecedented bond buying. After surging to a 29-month high of 3.05 percent at the start of the year, yields on the 10-year note have declined and were at 2.72 percent at 7:42 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices.

Caught Short

One reason yields have fallen is the U.S. labor market, which has yet to show consistent improvement.

More from Bloomberg.com: S&P 500 Futures Little Changed; Gold, Russia Stocks Fall

The world’s largest economy added fewer jobs on average in the first three months of the year than in the same period in the prior two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. At the same time, a slowdown in China and tensions between Russia and Ukraine boosted demand for the safest assets.

Wall Street firms known as primary dealers are getting caught short betting against Treasuries. They collectively amassed $5.2 billion of wagers in March that would profit if Treasuries fell, the first time they had net short positions on government debt since September 2011, the data show.

While the wager initially paid off after Yellen said on March 19 that the Fed may lift its benchmark rate six months after it stops buying bonds, Treasuries have since rallied as her subsequent comments strengthened the view that policy makers will keep borrowing costs low to support growth.

‘Considerable Slack’

On March 31, Yellen highlighted inconsistencies in job data and said “considerable slack” in labor markets showed the Fed’s accommodative policies will be needed for “some time.”

Then, in her first major speech on her policy framework as Fed chair on April 16, Yellen said it will take at least two years for the U.S. economy to meet the Fed’s goals, which determine how quickly the central bank raises rates.

After declining as much as 0.6 percent following Yellen’s March 19 comments, Treasuries have recouped all their losses, index data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch show.

“We had that big selloff and the dealers got short then, and then we turned around and the Fed says, ‘Whoa, whoa, whoa: it’s lower for longer again,'” MacQueen said in an April 15 telephone interview. “The dealers are really worried here. You get really punished if you take a lot of risk.”

Economists and strategists around Wall Street are still anticipating that Treasuries will underperform as yields increase, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Yield Forecasts

While they’ve ratcheted down their forecasts this year, they predict 10-year yields will increase to 3.36 percent by the end of December. That’s more than 0.6 percentage point higher than where yields are today.

“My forecast is 4 percent,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG, a primary dealer. “It may seem like it’s really aggressive but it’s really not.”

LaVorgna, who has the highest estimate among the 66 responses in a Bloomberg survey, said stronger economic data will likely cause investors to sell Treasuries as they anticipate a rate increase from the Fed.

The U.S. economy will expand 2.7 percent this year from 1.9 percent in 2013, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Growth will accelerate 3 percent next year, which would be the fastest in a decade, based on those forecasts.

History Lesson

Dealers used to rely on Treasuries to act as a hedge against their holdings of other types of debt, such as corporate bonds and mortgages. That changed after the credit crisis caused the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008.

They slashed corporate-debt inventories by 76 percent from the 2007 peak through last March as they sought to comply with higher capital requirements from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and stockpiled Treasuries instead.

“Being a dealer has changed over the years, and not least because you also have new balance-sheet constraints that you didn’t have before,” Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist at primary dealer Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), said in a telephone interview on April 14.

While the Fed’s decision to inundate the U.S. economy with more than $3 trillion of cheap money since 2008 by buying Treasuries and mortgaged-backed bonds bolstered profits as all fixed-income assets rallied, yields are now so low that banks are struggling to make money trading government bonds.

Yields on 10-year notes have remained below 3 percent since January, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In two decades before the credit crisis, average yields topped 6 percent.

Almost Guaranteed

Average daily trading has also dropped to $551.3 billion in March from an average $570.2 billion in 2007, even as the outstanding amount of Treasuries has more than doubled since the financial crisis, according data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

“During the crisis, the Fed went to great pains to save primary dealers,” Christopher Whalen, banker and author of “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream,” said in a telephone interview. “Now, because of quantitative easing and other dynamics in the market, it’s not just treacherous, it’s almost a guaranteed loss.”

The biggest dealers are seeing their earnings suffer. In the first quarter, five of the six biggest Wall Street firms reported declines in fixed-income trading revenue.

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bond underwriter, had a 21 percent decrease from its fixed-income trading business, more than estimates from Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse, and Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo & Co.

Trading Revenue

Citigroup, whose bond-trading results marred the New York-based bank’s two prior quarterly earnings, reported a 18 percent decrease in revenue from that business. Credit Suisse, the second-largest Swiss bank, had a 25 percent drop as income from rates and emerging-markets businesses fell. Declines in debt-trading last year prompted the Zurich-based firm to cut more than 100 fixed-income jobs in London and New York.

Chief Financial Officer David Mathers said in a Feb. 6 call that Credit Suisse has “reduced the capital in this business materially and we’re obviously increasing our electronic trading operations in this area.” Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer at JPMorgan, also emphasized the decreased role of humans in the rates-trading business on an April 11 call as the New York-based bank seeks to cut costs.

About 49 percent of U.S. government-debt trading was executed electronically last year, from 31 percent in 2012, a Greenwich Associates survey of institutional money managers showed. That may ultimately lead banks to combine their rates businesses or scale back their roles as primary dealers as firms get squeezed, said Krishna Memani, the New York-based chief investment officer of OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees $79.1 billion in fixed-income assets.

“If capital requirements were not as onerous as they are now, maybe they could have found a way of making it work, but they aren’t as such,” he said in a telephone interview.

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Is Hiring About To Surge? What This Short Report Shows Will Surprise You

As per report below, a lot of economists believe so. Unfortunately, we do not share their enthusiasm. It doesn’t take much to take present economic environment and forecast it into perpetuity. On the other hand, it takes a lot of guts (or stupidity) to claim that a deep recession and a severe bear market is just around the corner. Yet, that is exactly what our mathematical work indicates. I am afraid that instead of ramp up in hiring most businesses will be hanging out pink slips by the thousands once the bear market of 2014-2017 hits.

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Is Hiring About To Surge? What This Short Report Shows Will Surprise You  Google

WSJ Writes: Business Economists See Brighter Outlook for Job Growth

Business economists’ outlook for near-term hiring strengthened this spring to the highest mark in nearly three years, a new survey found.

The poll by the National Association for Business Economics said 43% of corporate economists expect hiring within their firm or industry to increase during the next six months. That was the most optimistic forecast since July 2011. The latest poll found that only 8% of economists expect businesses to cut payrolls over the next two quarters.

A projected increase in hiring raises the prospect that the unemployment rate could inch down toward its historical average later this year. The unemployment rate — 6.7% in March — has fallen more than a percentage point since the start of last year, but remains elevated compared to the average monthly reading of 5.8% since 1948.

Two-thirds of economists in the “goods-producing” segment, which includes manufacturers, said hiring will increase. But only 30% of service-sector firms expect employment gains to ramp up. Manufacturing jobs tend to pay higher wages than those in service sector. As a result, increased manufacturing hiring could support growth in incomes and consumer spending.

Still, the latest projections come with a familiar warning label: Past predictions of an around-the-corner economic breakout have largely failed to materialize since the recovery began nearly five years ago.

During the six months following the previous peak in hiring optimism in July 2011, the pace of payroll gains slowed slightly compared with the first half of that year.

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What You Ought To Know About China Slowly Taking Over Africa. Their Military Involvement Will Shock You The Most

While the US continues to destabilize and meddle away in irrelevant nations like Syria and Ukraine, China is playing a carefully orchestrated long game to take over a massive continent full of natural resources. As per Bloomberg report below, not only does China provide economic and political support, but it is also sending in Chinese troops to bring stability.  Finally, over a million Chinese have flooded into the continent seeking business opportunities and freedoms…….

China Taking Over Africa Investwithalex

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What You Ought To Know About China Slowly Taking Over Africa. Their Military Involvement Will Shock You The Most  Google

Bloomberg: In His First Year, China’s Xi Puts Unprecedented Focus on Africa

A little over a year ago, Xi Jinping embarked on his first foreign trip as China’s president, making stops in Russia and Africa. Over the past 13 months, his administration has focused unprecedented attention on strengthening economic and political ties in Africa, according to a new policy briefing by Brookings Institution scholar Yun Sun.

While China’s People’s Liberation Army has long maintained what Sun calls a “tacit operating principle of ‘no troops on foreign soil,’” last spring Beijing sent 170 combat troops from the PLA Special Force to accompany the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali. In the past, only Chinese engineers and medical personnel had ever been dispatched to foreign soils under a UN mandate.

“China’s choosing Africa to dispatch combat troops for the first time does suggest Beijing’s rising interests,” writes Sun, as well “enhanced commitment and [a] direct role in maintaining [the] peace and security of Africa.” China has also “dispatched a total of 16 fleets and escorted more than 5,300 ships and vessels” around the Gulf of Aden, in effect taking responsibility for maintaining the security of key shipping lanes.

VIDEO: China Demand Boosts Africa, S. America Output

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew to Addis Ababa in January to join Ethiopian-led efforts to mediate between rebel forces and government officials from South Sudan. In the past, Beijing had officially frowned on “open intervention in … [foreign] conflicts through direct mediation,” writes Sun. But with China now importing significant oil from South Sudan—almost 14 million barrels in the first 10 months of 2013—a shift in China’s rhetoric and strategy is evident.

China is also deepening direct economic ties. Over the past year, Beijing has granted $10 billion in direct loans to African governments. And the focus of Chinese investments is evolving. “One striking feature of these loans lies in China’s new priority in financing infrastructure, agricultural, and manufacturing industries in Africa,” writes Sun, “a strategy that shifts away from its traditional heavy investment in Africa’s extractive industries.”

In addition to Chinese government-directed investments and security campaigns in Africa, more than 1 million Chinese immigrants are now in Africa, ranging from short-term construction workers to entrepreneurs aiming to settle there long term. These new arrivals come both to seek opportunity and to escape oppression in their homelands, a dynamic explored in moving detail in an upcoming book, by veteran foreign correspondent Howard French, called China’s Second Continent.

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Why Russia Ought To Invade Ukraine As Soon As Possible

I continue to believe that the US has no business, whatsoever, interfering in Ukraine’s business.  Yet, since the warmongers in the US are hell bent on starting another conflict with Russia over a small nation 6,000 miles from an American shore (while being responsible for destabilizing Ukraine in the first place), Russia should invade as soon as possible to resolve the conflict. While such actions will have short-term consequences, over the long-term such a move will help prevent civil war, bring economic stability to the Ukraine and stop the spread of destabilizing cancer known as NATO.  As such, the sooner Russia goes in the better.

Ukraine invasion

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Why Russia Ought To Invade Ukraine As Soon As Possible Google

Bloomberg: Ukraine Says Russia Preparing Grounds for Invasion

At least three people were killed in a clash in Slovyansk in eastern Ukraine, the nation’s Interior Ministry said, as a top security official accused Russia of exploiting the violence to prepare grounds for an invasion.

Three “activists” were shot to death while on duty at a roadblock in an attack early today that also left three other people injured, the ministry said in a posting on itswebsite. It said the assailants took “wounded and killed along with them,” without providing details. Ukraine’s Security Service said saboteurs carried out the assault.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry blamed the Ukrainian nationalist group Pravyi Sektor for the violence — an allegation that Pravyi Sektor denied in a statement. Viktoria Syumar, first deputy head of the National Security and Defense Council in Kiev, said on her Facebook page that Russia’s accusation and statements show it is preparing grounds to invade Ukraine.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called Russia a “threat to the globe” in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program that was recorded yesterday. “If Russia pulls back its security forces and former KGB agents, this would definitely calm down the situation and stabilize the situation in southern and eastern Ukraine,” he said.

Photographer: Ilya Pitalev/Kommersant Photo via Getty Images

Armed pro-Russian activists march on April 18, 2014 in Kramatorsk, Ukraine.

Military Outposts

Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Dmytro Horbunov said in a telephone interview with Channel 5 television today that there have been three to four cases of “provocations” by unknown people against Ukrainian military outposts in the Luhansk region in the eastern part of the country. The provocations consisted of throwing rocks and fireworks, the spokesman said.

The discord adds to skepticism about whether Ukraine, the U.S., and the European Union will be able to use an April 17 Geneva accord to hold Vladimir Putin accountable for easing tensions that the Russian president says he’s had no role in creating.

With separatists holding their ground in several eastern cities, the prospect for a small-scale civil war has increased, said Angela Stent, director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University in Washington.

“I see this as a creeping destabilization,” Stent said in an interview today. “I’m not sure it’s a civil war yet, but the pre-conditions for a civil war are there.”

Geneva Agreement

Nothing has been done to implement the agreement reached in Geneva last week among the U.S., European Union, Russian and Ukraine that was aimed at defusing the crisis, she said.

“I see nothing that persuades me that anyone will be able to dislodge these people,” Stent said of the pro-Russia separatists who have occupied government buildings in the Russian-speaking East.

Any civil war likely would be confined to those eastern towns, where the separatist movement is based, said Stent, author of a new book on U.S.-Russian relations called “The Limits of Partnership.”

“It’s not a large-scale civil war, but it’s political paralysis because nothing’s going to move forward,” she said.

Ukraine’s Economic Minister Pavlo Sheremeta, speaking on the private television channel 1+1, said today officials expect the International Monetary Fund to act this week on a loan to the country. Ukraine’s government sealed a preliminary accord with the IMF last month for as much as $18 billion in loans in the next two years. The rescue would unlock additional international financing bringing the total package to $27 billion.

Cold War

Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Sergei Kislyak, said new economic sanctions on his country would amount to “the revival of the Cold War mentality” and would be counter-productive.

“We can withstand pressures,” Kislyak said on “Fox News Sunday” today. Claims that Putin seeks to restore the former Soviet Union are “a false notion” and Russia seeks only to ensure that Ukraine becomes “a country that is democratic, that supports the rights of all the ethnic groups, including certainly Russia’s, and we want to have a friendly neighbor,” Kislyak said.

U.S. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the top-ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, said the Obama administration should impose sanctions on Russia’s energy and banking industries unless there’s an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukraine border.

‘Day Late’

“Our foreign policy is always a day late and a dollar short because we’re reacting,” Corker said on “Meet the Press” program today.

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, echoed Corker’s call for stronger action.

“I think the time is now to rapidly ratchet up our sanctions, whether it’s on Russian petrochemical companies or on Russian banks,” Murphy said on “Meet the Press.”

Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said he’s hopeful that Ukraine can avoid a civil war.

“What I hear from Ukrainians across the board, and especially on this Easter holiday, is a desire to bring everybody together,” Pyatt said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program today.

“There are obviously efforts from small, isolated groups to stir division,” Pyatt said. “But that’s not what I hear from most Ukrainians, including, I should add, Ukrainians in the East.”

Separatists who stage demonstrations and take over government buildings don’t represent the majority of Ukrainians, he said. “We’re really just talking about a couple of hundred of people at most of these sites.”

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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. April 19th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 17 2014

Weekly Update & Summary: April 19th, 2014

In a complete reversal from last week’s loss of 386 points the Dow Jones gained 382 points (+2.38%) and the Nasdaq gained 98.78 points (+2.39%) for the week. Structurally, while the Nasdaq closed all of its gaps, the Dow left two gaps behind, on Monday the 14th and a large gap on the 16th. Indicating an upcoming correction. Further, there are a number of smaller gaps left leading all the way down to February 5th low.  The Dow will close such gaps as the bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).

WEEKLY REVIEW:

Asia’s Wealthiest Man Is Selling Everything In China. Crash Coming?

With his net worth well in excess of $30 Billion, Li Ka-Shing is the richest man in Asia.  A shrewd property investor, Li made most of his billions by investing in Chinese property market. Yet, unbeknownst to most, Li has been liquidating most of his property holdings in China since last year. With recently completed sale of Pacific Place shopping center in Beijing for $928 million, Li now has no assets of significant value left in or exposed to the Chinese market.

So, what does Li sees that has caused him enough concern to liquidate most of his holdings? 

Same thing that we have mentioned on this blog.( Where Is China’s Hidden Debt Bomb) China is on a verge of a massive credit seizure that should (in theory) collapse it’s real estate, banking, shadow banking, capital missallocationg and credit bubbles. When it does, you will see China go through a massive economic slowdown and a possible revolutionary regime change. While most people will dismiss this view as highly improbable (anticipating a soft landing at best), Asia’s richest (and arguably the smartest) man just voted with his wallet. As they say, money talks and bullshit walks.

In fact, watch Li buy his Pacific Place mall back for $100 Million within the next 5 years.

 Baltic Dry Collapses 40%. Signals Economic Slowdown.

baltic dry index is breaking down

No, Baltic Dry is not a tasty Swedish Beer.  Baltic Dry Index, a measure of sea freight prices, is now in a technical bear market.  Signaling a worldwide economic slowdown. Down 40% in just three weeks and a bone crushing 58% since it’s December 2013 top. This works well with our overall bear market of 2014-2017 forecast. But don’t worry, as mentioned earlier, according to the talking heads on TV the market has bottomed and the Nasdaq is going to 5,000. BUY, BUY, BUY. Cheers.

Janet Yellen: Bubbles? What Bubbles?

As per Bloomberg report below, Janet Yellen said nothing about the risk that her easy monetary policy will inflate asset bubbles. DUH!? What Bloomberg has missed is that we are already in a massive bubble or bubbles. While the primary bubble is singular in nature….CREDIT……adjacent bubbles are too numerous to mention here (stock market, real estate, bonds, car loans, student debt, etc…) In fact, the situation we face today is not that dissimilar to the situation we have faced at 2007 top. It is almost identical and I challenge anyone to prove me otherwise.

Is the FED aware of these bubbles while hoping for the best or are they completely blind? Unfortunately, I continue to maintain it’s the latter. As I have mentioned before, their 2008 FED Minutes is a clear indication of that. They are a reactionary force at best, only able to correct the direction after the fact. Somehow, the markets believe that the FED possesses a supernatural power to control and to direct the markets. And that is why I continue to maintain that the market participants with such a view will pay dearly for their misconception over the next few years.

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: 

Ukraine/Russia/USA/EU/NATO  continue to  be the most important issue. In fact, I continue to believe things will escalate significantly over the next few weeks.  

While things seemed to cool off and the Geneva deal was signed, I continue to believe the US/NATO, Ukraine’s Interim Government, Pro-Russian Movement In the East Ukraine and Russia are one spark away from reigniting this conflict and going at each other on multiple levels.  While I don’t believe NATO and Russia will get involved into a direct military conflict (for the time being), any misstep here by either side might lead to Russia invading East Ukraine. In fact, I continue to believe it is just a matter of time. Such a move by Russia will spark a number of economic sanctions (from both sides), political storm, war rhetoric and a million other unforeseen consequences.  As you can imagine, this would be incredibly unsettling for financial markets.  The upcoming week is critical.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE FOR DOW JONES:  

Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. Same applies to the market action over the last two weeks. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Short-Term: Short-term positive trend is at the risk of a reversal. If the Dow breaks below 16,000 in the upcoming week(s), short-term trend will shift from positive to negative. So, while the short-term trend remains bullish for the time being, it might be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.

Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.    

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:  

First, a recap. Particularly for our new subscribers. Over the last few months we have maintained that the DOW will set a XXXX

(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public.  As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

…XXXX

In conclusion, our timing and mathematical work shows XXXX 

Longer-Term Overview:

Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX

Trading:

XXXX

The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, all of the positions below have been triggered.    

Stock Entry Point ($) Action Taken Stop Loss @
XXXX XXXX Went XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX Went XXXX XXXX
XXXX 110 Went XXXX 121-123
XXXX 74 Went XXXX 80
XXXX 236 Went XXXX 260
XXXX XXXX Went XXXX 460
XXXX 35 Went XXXX 39
XXXX 65 Went XXXX 70
XXXX 120 Went XXXX 120-130
XXXX 100 Went XXXX 108-112
XXXX 112 Went XXXX 120

Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).

If You Are A Trader: XXXX.

If No Position:  XXXX

If Long: XXXX 

If Short: XXXX

CONCLUSION: 

An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecasts above to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do now. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here.  Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.

Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start. 

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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. April 19th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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Putin Decides Against Invading Alaska. Obama Utterly Disappointed.

Despite a White House petition calling for Alaska to secede from the US and rejoin Russia collecting more than 42,000 signatures, Vladimir Putin dismissed any sort of annexation or military invasion as unnecessary in his recently televised interview. The hopes of Alaska freedom fighters (terrorist) were squashed when Putin added “It’s just too darn cold there”. When asked for a comment President Obama responded with, “I am utterly disappointed with comrade Putin’s decision on this matter, it was our fastest path to war, but it’s squandered now. I guess it’s back to the drawing board and escalating this conflict through normalized channels”.

putin on a horse investwithalex

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Putin Decides Against Invading Alaska. Obama Utterly Disappointed. Google

HP Writes: Vladimir Putin Says Alaska Is Too Cold To Annex

Russian President Vladimir Putin quashed the possibility that Russia would annex Alaska while on a question-and-answer call-in show Thursday, adding that the former Russian colony is cold, too.

Amid rising Russian nationalism after the president’s annexation of Crimea, Putin responded to an audience member’s suggestion of annexing Alaska during the televised national phone-in, asking, “Faina Ivanovna, my dear, why do you want Alaska?”

Russia is a “northern country” and 70 percent of its territory lies in “Northern and extreme Northern regions,” Putin said, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti. “Is Alaska really in the Southern Hemisphere? It’s cold there, too. Let’s not get hot-headed,” he added. Russia sold Alaska to the U.S. in 1867 for $7.2 million.

“Who needs Alaska?” Putin added.

A White House petition calling for Alaska to secede from the U.S. and rejoin Russia has garnered more than 42,000 signatures since the initiative launched in March.

Despite rising tensions between the two nations, Putin assured his audience Thursday that “growing relations with the United States” remains in Russia’s best interest.

“I want to emphasize once again, Russia is interested in growing relations with the United States and will do everything to ensure that this confidence is restored,” Putin said.

The U.S. levied sanctions against Russia and select government officials in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March, and has warned that additional sanctionswill be imposed if Russia further intervenes to destabilize Ukraine.

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Bloomberg Makes Fun Of Short Sellers….About To Eat Crow?

Bloomberg report below cannot contain their excitement that most short sellers have missed the recent decline. I am sorry Bloomberg, but my subscription service/fund didn’t miss any of it. Going short Netflix (NFLX) at $420 was just one of many incredibly successful positions. As I have warned people in one of my daily updates at the end of March, the market is in a very dangerous “Sleep State” or everyone is asleep while market is slowly grinding higher. Plus, I gave every hint possible that the market is about to roll over.

Finally, we have been warning anyone who would listen that the bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last two years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please Click Here. 

Dollar Bill in a Mousetrap

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Bloomberg Makes Fun Of Short Sellers….About To Eat Crow?  Google

Bloomberg Writes: Short Sellers Miss the Tech Slump

Early April’s sharp swoon in technology stocks should have been good news for short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price. It wasn’t. The Nasdaq 100-stock index, dominated by computer and Internet companies, fell 3.1 percent on April 10, its worst one-day drop since November 2011, and declined 7.5 percent from March 4 through April 11. The tumble came as short interest, the percentage of a company’s shares that investors have borrowed and sold, was close to zero at many of the biggest names in the index.

Burned by rising stock prices, bearish investors have cut their wagers against computer and software makers by more than half in the past five years. Short interest on technology companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is averaging 2.4 percent, near the lowest level since at least 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Markit, a London-based provider of financial data. That’s down from 5.6 percent at the stock market’s low point in March 2009. “Most people told me they’re scared to death to short,” says John Thompson, chief investment officer at hedge fund Vilas Capital Management, which is betting on declines in Facebook (FB) and Netflix’s (NFLX) stocks. “They’re acting on fear instead of logic.”

Bears may have been discouraged by the market’s quick recoveries from recent dips. The Nasdaq 100 declined 5.2 percent from Jan. 22 to Feb. 3, and last year slipped 3.4 percent from Oct. 2 to Oct. 9 and 6 percent from May 17 through June 24. Each time, the index climbed above its previous high within a month of reaching the low. “You have to defer to the strength that’s pushing the stocks higher,” says David Pavan, a portfolio manager at ClariVest Asset Management. Short sellers “just pulled back, and there was no appetite to keep stepping in front of it.”

Facebook dropped as much as 21 percent during the March-April selloff, but bets against it accounted for less than 0.1 percent of the shares outstanding. Its short interest peaked at 15.2 percent in August 2012, just before the stock began a 306 percent advance over the next 18 months. Netflix’s short interest has fallen to 1 percent from 23 percent in November 2012. After surging almost 300 percent in 2013, shares of the online movie provider have plunged 28 percent from a March peak.Baidu (BIDU), a Chinese Internet-search company, slumped 22 percent during the month through April 7, while short interest has fallen to 0.1 percent from a peak of 3.9 percent in July.

For Whitney Tilson, managing partner of hedge fund Kase Capital Management, the ups and downs of Netflix have been an education. Tilson says he started shorting the stock in 2010, in the expectation that its streaming service wouldn’t succeed. “As the stock almost doubled against me, I reevaluated the business and realized that customers were much more satisfied with the service than I anticipated,” he says. He closed out his short bet and “felt very good about it” when the stock then soared to $300. “Then I watched it go to $53 and felt very foolish because everything I predicted came true.” By that point, having “developed an appreciation of how good their business was,” he says he began buying the stock, at an average price of $58 a share. He still holds Netflix shares, which closed at $326 on April 15.

The lack of short sellers may make it harder for stocks to rebound from the latest setback, according to Rick Bensignor, head of trading strategy at Wells Fargo Securities (WFC). In the past year, rallies have picked up speed as bears decided to close out their bets by buying back stock they’d borrowed and sold, a process known as short covering. The scarcity of short sellers means there are fewer eager buyers when stocks fall. “You have a one-sided market,” Bensignor says. “It’s much easier for the market to decline.”

That would be fine with the remaining short sellers. Tilson says his firm is shorting 3D-printing companies now. “That’s a pretty good example of foolish, speculative, overvalued, momentum-driven stocks,” he says. Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners, says, “I’m a huge bear on the technology stocks and on the market. If you’ve got patience and you’ve got the pocket, shorting a whole basket of these very-high-multiple stocks is a very smart thing to do.”

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Obama Administration Sets A Clear Path To War With Russia. This Little Known Fact Will Infuriate You

An important question. What the fuck are we doing starting a massive international conflict over a tiny nation 6,000 miles away from an American shore? I hope you are smart enough to understand that the conflict with Russia over Ukraine has nothing to do with freedom, democracy and the rest of “feel good” American propaganda bullshit and everything to do with NATO expansion and warmongers/military industrial complex in Washington.

Further, comparing Russia to Nazi Germany or “we must stop them now” is not grounded in reality and I will debate anyone about this on historical basis. The US would behave in exactly the same fashion (if not worst) if Russia or China were trying to build a massive military base in Tijuana. This leads me to only one conclusion. With Iraq and Afghanistan wars now over, the Military Industrial Complex needs another massive enemy and they will stop at nothing to get it. As per links below expect thing to deteriorate significantly over the next few months. Sanctions and counter sanctions, economic warfare, cold war, etc…..  To say that I am ashamed of my government at this juncture would be an understatement.  

evil-obama-investwithalex

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Obama Administration Sets A Clear Path To War With Russia. This Little Known Fact Will Infuriate You Google

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Stock Market Update. April 17th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart April 17 2014

 A flat day with the Dow Jones down 16 points(-0.10%) and the Nasdaq up 9 points (+0.23%) 

The market continues to bounce for the time being. While most market pundits continue to argue whether or not the market has bottomed, the future we see is as clear as night and day. To explain, allow me to bring back one of my favorite cycles. The 5-Year Cycle. It is one of my favorite because it represents a complete growth spiral composition within the DNA genome code of the stock market and it’s subsequent rotation in multi-dimensional space (and you thought I follow simple technical analysis ;-).  Now, as I have shown before, the 5 years cycle is exact. We are not talking about 5 Years +/- a few months, we are talking about 5 years +/- a few trading days. For example, the 2002 bottom to 2007 top cycle completed in 5 Years and 1 day. With our recent 5-Year cycle completing in early March, there should be no doubt what comes next. 

Our mathematical and timing work clearly shows the US Economy and it’s financial markets will go through a severe recession and a bear market between 2014-2017. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please Click Here. 

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). 

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Stock Market Update. April 17th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google