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Warning: Is Your Life Governed By Stock Market Cycles?

Is it possible that your entire life is governed by the same cyclical forces that operate in the stock market? Is it possible that your life tends to oscillate, grow, fall, collapse, surge higher and otherwise flat-line (move sideways) just as the stock market or individual stocks do? If so, can your life be predicted? 

The answer to all of the above is YES. Based on my timing and mathematical work. To read the full report click here Warning: This Article Will Blow Your Mind. 17 Year Cycles Within Human Life. Why Human Life Takes The Same Trajectory As The Stock Market.

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Is Your Life Governed By Stock Market Cycles Google

Yellen To Markets: Don’t Worry, I Will Print My Ass Off

After her disastrous debut just two weeks ago, in which Janet Yellen managed to crush market spirits to the tune of 200 points in 1 trading hour, today, we got a “better” version of herself that markets tend to love. Just as predicted on this blog. In fact, don’t expect to hear anything but “We will print and do whatever is necessary to keep this liquidity party going” moving forward. 

This, of course, relays into everything we have been saying about the economy, the unemployment and the future of interest rates (yield curve). Again, with the advent of the bear market of 2014-2017, the US Economy will find itself in a severe recession by the end of 2014. In such an environment, the FED will not be tightening anything. Counter to today’s popular believe they will be looking to re-inflate, infuse credit or cut in any way possible. The result? Much lower equity prices, compressed (perhaps inverted) yield curve, much higher unemployment rate and surging gold prices.  

Basically, exactly the opposite of what most of today’s market participants believe. If you would like to know exactly when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day), while setting the whole mess mentioned above in motion, please Click Here.   

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Yellen To Markets: Don’t Worry, I Will Print My Ass Off Google

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Reuters Writes: Yellen strongly defends easy Fed policies, cites labor slack

CHICAGO (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Monday the U.S. central bank’s “extraordinary” commitment to boosting the economy, especially the still struggling labor market, will be needed for some time to come.

Yellen, in her first public speech since becoming Fed chair two months ago, strongly defended the Fed’s policies of low interest rates and continued bond-buying, saying there remains “considerable” slack in the economy and job market.

“I think this extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time, and I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policy-makers at the Fed,” Yellen said at the 2014 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference

SAC Capital Doubles It’s Zynga Stake….Time To Buy?

SAC Capital (Point 72 Asset Management) doubled their stake in Zynga (ZNGA)  to 5% over the last few months. With Zynga selling at 70% off of its value from just two years ago….is it time for us to load up as well? 

Probably NOT. 

Listen, I would be the first one to tell you that I am not smart enough to figure out Zynga’s business model. Not in terms of their revenue generating capability, but in terms of creating “popular games”. This is more or less similar to a movie business model where the hits can be anticipated, but not fully predicted. 

While the stock has been trending higher over the last few months, it did leave a large gap at around $3.50 that it must close before any meaningful gains can take place. Further, with our mathematical and timing works showing a bear market between 2014-2017, there will be very little chance for this highly speculative stock to move higher. As such, I would definitely stay away from Zynga until and unless it breaks out above $6.  

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SAC Capital Doubles It’s Zynga Stake….Time To Buy?   Google

Bloomberg Writes: Troubled SAC Capital Doubles Its Stake in Troubled Zynga

Maybe it’s investment as performance art? Hedge fund titan Steven Cohen, head of insider trading hotbed SAC Capital, has increased his stake in troubled game makerZynga (ZNGA) to more than 5 percent, according to a company filing, more than double the 2.2 percent he held at the end of 2013.

Zynga makes FarmVille, Words With Friends, Draw Something, and other social games. The company has had a rough time since going public at the end of 2011, including multiple rounds of layoffs, ill-considered acquisitions, and a soured relationship with Facebook (FB). Hedge funds own almost 58 percent of Zynga shares, according to Bloomberg data, up from 27 percent one year ago.

While Cohen is famous for buying and selling stocks rapidly, SAC Capital does have some large and seemingly miscellaneous holdings, including 8.8 percent ofClearwater Paper (CLW), 4.87 percent of Trulia (TRLA), and 4.71 percent of Crocs(CROX).

At $4.49, shares of Zynga have lost 69.7 percent since their high on March 2, 2012. This year the shares have gained 16.8 percent, owing largely to a $527 millionpurchase of mobile game developer NaturalMotion in January, which the company announced alongside a new round of layoffs. More analysts rate Zynga a sell than a buy, according to Bloomberg data.

Cohen’s hedge fund asked a federal judge on Thursday to approve its $1.8 billion insider trading settlement with the government, saying it was “deeply remorseful”for a sustained pattern of illegal activity by its employees. Six former employees have pleaded guilty to insider trading; two more, Michael Steinberg and Mathew Martoma, were found guilty at trial in recent months. As part of its deal with the government, SAC has agreed to stop managing outside investors’ money.

SAC, which is changing its name to Point72 Asset Management, will continue as a “family office” managing Cohen’s personal fortune. Cohen is worth $8.7 billion, and has amassed one of the world’s better collections of contemporary art, including a dead shark in a tank of formaldehyde, a human head sculpted out ofthe artist’s own frozen blood, and some paintings. Valued at $173 million, the Zynga stake is not much more than the $155 million Cohen paid one year ago for Le Rêve, a 1932 oil painting by Pablo Picasso.

How The Stock Market Is Rigged

60 Minutes did a very good story on high frequency trading and how it rips most investors off. While we have talked about this issue a number of times on this blog, this report does a much better job. Further, while I don’t believe the notion that the entire stock market is gamed, the transactional side of it is most certainly rigged.  It is time our government does something useful for a change and ban this practice. 

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How The Stock Market Is Rigged Google

Even Goldman Sachs Thinks Markets Are Ignoring Risks

Even Goldman Sachs’s President Gary Cohn believes that, for the most part, markets are ignoring geopolitical and overvaluation concerns. A situation where most investors are essentially forced to be in the stock market due to zero interest rate environment elsewhere. While true, this does not mean such an environment cannot be readjusted, leading to a substantial market decline in the very near future. Based on our mathematical and timing work, we are very close to such a point, as the bear market of 2014-2017 is about to begin. 

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Even Goldman Sachs Thinks Markets Are Ignoring Risks Google

Bloomberg Writes: Goldman Sachs President Says Markets ‘Ignoring’ Risks

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn said prices in global markets don’t reflect the risks from geopolitical conflicts such as Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

“For the last six to 12 months, markets for some reason have been ignoring a lot of the geopolitical risk,” Cohn, 53, said in an interview with Canadian television network CBC. “Russia, Crimea, Ukraine: this is not the first or newest geopolitical risk we’ve had in the last year or so.”

Cohn cited tensions between China and Japan as well as continuing violence in the Middle Eastas risks that haven’t halted a climb in global equities over the last 12 months. Investors with a lot of cash have felt pressure to deploy it, preventing a sustained downturn in prices, he said.

“Anytime we get any sell-off in the market, there’s new investors coming into the market, so we haven’t seen that repricing,” Cohn said. Investors are saying, “I’ve got to put cash to work, and maybe these situations are going to be with us for a long time, and I can’t sit on cash at the bank earning no return forever,” he said.

Still, Cohn said the U.S. stock market seems fairly valued, given low interest rates and bond yields that will probably climb. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 18 percent in the last 12 months.

“In a lot of respects, owning equities in the world today seems like the least risky opportunity for cash out there,” Cohn said. “Each of the alternatives has its own negative potential consequences to it, and then you evaluate all the alternatives in relationship to each other, and then you end up in a scenario where I think equities provide the most upside versus the downside.”

What Does The Yield Curve Yield?

The opposite of what most other market participants believe. Most market participants anticipate the FED to tighten, as they have indicated, indicating economic growth and higher interest rates. In such a scenario you should see spreads widening. Instead, we are beginning to see a trend reversal and yield curve compression since the start of this year. 

Does the bond market see something that most other market participants do not? 

I believe so. In fact, we anticipate the yield curve to flatten further over the next 24 months and possibly invert as the bear market of 2014-2017 enters the picture. As we have indicated on this blog so many times before the bear market will usher in a severe recession, forcing the FED to flood the market with further liquidity. In such an environment, we would anticipate the long end of the curve to head lower. Much lower. 

If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and it’s internal composition, please Click Here.  

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What Does The Yield Curve Yield?  Google

 

Did Washington Warmongers Almost Start Another War In Syria

another war in syria

This is a long complicated story with more plot twists than your typical James Bond movie. This is rather simple. Here is my quick analysis. Washington asked Turkey (it’s NATO ally) to start a military conflict with Syria in order to counterbalance Putin/Russia and to display America’s military might. Unfortunately, direct negotiation plans for a staged attack on Turkey by Syria got leaked, leading to a subsequent ban of YouTube and Twitter in Turkey. This is not going to end well. 

Click Here To See, Read and Decide For Yourself. 

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Did Washington Warmongers Almost Start Another War In Syria  Google

Private Debt Crisis. Roadmap To Next Economic Collapse?

We all know that over the last few two decades the FED indirectly forced both the US Government and American citizens to blow a giant debt bubble. How big? $36 Trillion. Give or take a few Trillion. Can’t relate?  That is about $110,000 in debt for every American citizen. That includes. 

 As of March 2014, American consumers owe $11.52 trillion in debt, an increase of 1.6% from last year. The average household owes $7,115 on their credit cards and the average indebted household owes $15,252. Americans owe $8.05 trillion in mortgages (the average mortgage debt being $152,209) and $1.08 trillion in student loan debt. When combined with corporate debts the U.S. collectively owes about $28 trillion in private debt. Plus, $7.6 Trillion of national debt. For A Grand Total: $36.6 Trillion. 

According to Richard Vague of Governor’s Woods Foundation, every crisis of our lifetime has been caused by a rapid increase of our private debt. I agree. Most booms are followed by speculative credit bubbles and subsequent collapses. Yet, most people today don’t even have the slightest comprehension of that. The debt levels above are not only burdensome, they cannot be possibly repaid.

The only way to get rid of such debts is either through a default, inflation and/or a war. Since the US Government is in the drivers seat when it comes to our monetary policy, I will let you decide which option they will chose.

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Private Debt Crisis. Roadmap To Next Economic Collapse? Google

The Daily Ticker Writes:We’re in a private debt crisis that could lead to the next economic collapse: Richard Vague

As of March 2014, American consumers owe $11.52 trillion in debt, an increase of 1.6% from last year. The average household owes $7,115 on their credit cards and the average indebted household owes $15,252. Americans owe $8.05 trillion in mortgages (the average mortgage debt being $152,209) and $1.08 trillion in student loan debt. When combined with corporate debts the U.S. collectively owes about $28 trillion in private debt.

“Every major crisis of our lifetime has been caused by a rapid increase of our private debt,” says Richard Vague, chair of the Governor’s Woods Foundation. “They all were a function of runaway private lending.”

People focus too much on government debt, argues Vague, when they should be attempting to quell private debt. 

“There’s reputed to be 10 million mortgages that are still underwater,” he says. “There’s perhaps a half or ¾ of a trillion in second-lean loans that are still a problem and haven’t been dealt with. Those to us are logical candidates for restructuring programs.”

Restructuring loans is a controversial issue and there’s little incentive for banks to do so. Vague suggests allowing banks to spread the losses over a very extended period of time with a one-time dispensation that says “you can spread your losses over 30 years if today you go to the borrower and restructure with them’ they would get rid a problem and get to clean things up.”

Russia Plans To Invade East Ukraine Next Week

I am getting an unconfirmed report from a Russian military acquaintance that Russia will go into East Ukraine late next week. This is further confirmed by my analysis of Russian media and physical Russian troop buildup along Ukraine’s border. This is further confirmed by Pentagon warning and direct warning against such action by Obama. I will have much more on this on Monday as I need to verify this information from another source. Thursday, April 4th was mentioned as the date. 

If true, anticipate the stock market to crater next week. This action will provoke a completely different ball game in the international community. P.S. I have done business in Russia in the past, hence, my contact. 

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Russia Plans To Invade East Ukraine Next Week  Google

How To Invest In Weed To Get Filthy Rich

I fathom that marijuana will be legal in most (if not all) 50 states within 5-10 years. The question is, how do you become filthy rich from the trend? Even if you are a stoner. 

Looking at history, there are 4 general ways when it comes to making money within any new industry. 

1. Grow, Manufacture & Distribute: I wouldn’t know anything about growing or selling marijuana so I digress on this point. There should be a number of other resources on this matter out there. 

2. Sector Servicing: Also known as, selling shovels to the gold miners.  For instance, last I have heard, retailers in Colorado are unable to deposit revenue generated by their businesses into banks due to Federal regulations. Anyone who solves this problem becomes an instant millionaire. There are many others, but I am not involved in the industry to give any other worthwhile advice on this point.  

3. New Products Associated With Marijuana: From pot brownies and pot strawberry/chocolate bars to e-pot cigarettes….use your imagination. Come up with a must have product and you are a few months away from a 60 foot yacht with 10 topples girls on board. The sky is the limit.  

4. Stock Market: Invest in marijuana related companies. Unfortunately, since the industry is so new and technically still “illegal” in most states, there are a very few companies to chose from. There are many penny stocks associated with the industry, but they are too risky. Based on my quick research, there are 3 more or less prominent companies in the industry that are listed. They include GWPH, CANN and CANV. Again, investing in such companies is not without risk. There will be big winners and complete losers. However, if you are able to pick that winner and buy the stock at the right price it should be an easy 10X or even 100X over the next 5-10 years. 

That about covers it. If you would be interested in participating in the sector, pick a category and go for it. I hope this helps. 

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How To Invest In Weed To Get Filthy Rich  Google

Call it a drug trade for investors. Todd Harrison, CEO and founder of Internet-based financial media company MInyanville, thinks cannabis “will be the single best investment idea for the next ten years.”

But while the public has watched recreational marijuana take off in Colorado this year, how can they profit from it as an investment theme?

Harrison believes it will be driven by the broader legalization of marijuana, inspired by states’ need for tax revenue. He points to expectations that legal marijuana use is expected to generate $134 million in tax revenue for the upcoming fiscal year in Colorado, the first state to allow recreational marijuana. That’s  nothing to sneeze at, and Harrison calls the state the “litmus test” for broader legalization. Harrison also cites the expected decline in crime rates and  prison populations as powerful incentives to decriminalize  marijuana.

The New York Times reports that half the states in the U.S., including some in the conservative South, are currently considering decriminalization of the drug or legalizing it for medical or recreational use. Oregon and Alaska are the likeliest to legalize pot next year. Twenty states now permit the use of medical marijuana now, while Colorado and Washington have legalized it for recreational use.

The legal marijuana market is estimated to grow  64% to $2.34 billion in 2014 from $1.44 billion, according to a recent report by the cannabis investment and research firm Arcview Group.

Wall Street currently doesn’t cover the marijuana market as an industry but once legalization is more widespread, that will be the inflection point when we marijuana investing moves mainstream, says Harrison.

Currently the chatter is mostly about marijuana penny stocks. They are not what Harrison is talking about. He says those stocks are very risky and volatile, and he doesn’t touch them.

But there are some “real” companies generating interest. Harrison cites the cannabinoid prescription medicine company GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) as an example. He’s not suggesting the stock as a buy or sell, just as an example he’s traded in the past. The stock has rallied more than 500% since last summer.

Advanced Cannabis Solutions (CANN), soared 62% in a single day when its stock chart was shown on CNBC earlier this week — even though it was a mistake, and the anchor was actually discussing another company in the cannabis industry, called CannaVEST (CANV). Advanced Cannabis Solutions leases growing facilities to legal marijuana growers and dispensary operators. CannaVEST makes hemp-based consumer products.(CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story said that Advanced Cannabis Solutions soared 62% in a single day when it was mentioned on CNBC earlier this week.)  

“That’s more bearish than bullish,” says Harrison, reminding him of the bubble levels reached back in Y2K days.

The comparison could cause would-be investors to bristle. Harrison says it’s about investors’ time horizon and risk tolerance. In the bubble of Y2K, everyone was excited about the Internet, he says, and everything they expected the Web to be proved true, but not until after the tech crash.

Harrison says investors should expects ebbs and flows in the marijuana industry. He sees a 10-year horizon with tremendous opportunity that will not be without “potholes, false starts and a lot of risk.” The moral of the story is to do your homework.

Others are more skeptical. Bloomberg reports Mark A.R. Kleiman, professor of public policy at the University of Southern California at Los Angeles, doesn’t “see how there’s money to be made producing an agricultural commodity,” which marijuana is, because once the market becomes competitive, prices will fall.

Other investors recommend avoiding these stocks until marijuana is legal throughout the U.S. Federal law still says marijuana is illegal, though the Obama Administration has said it won’t interfere with the rollout of legalized cannabis in individual states. And though the federal government has said that bankers following Treasury guidelines in providing services to cannabis companies operating in those states won’t face prosecution, many large banks still won’t process funds earned from pot sales.