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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?

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Reuters Writes: Fed’s Evans: Optimistic 2014 will be the year economy takes off

CORALVILLE, Iowa, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Wednesday said he’s optimistic that 2014 will finally be the year the economy “takes off,” adding that monetary policy must remain accommodative for it to do so.

Wait a second. The economy hasn’t “Taken Off” yet? I am confused. If you listen to the financial media “propaganda machine”, most investment advisors and money managers, even our own president, the economy is doing great. The stock market is up over 100% in the last 5 years and everyone is getting rich.

Of course, such statements are viewed as fallacy on the main street.  For most people, things haven’t improved. If anything, they have gotten a lot worse. The reason you are seeing “perceived” improvements has nothing to do with the real economic growth and everything to do with speculation and corruption.

Yes, corruption. If you want someone to blame, there is only one place you need to point your finger. At the US Government and the FED. They have pumped our economy full of hot air in the form of credit and speculation.

That is not without cost. Eventually, our economy and our capital markets will have to readjust themselves. When they do, there will be hell to pay. As my earlier posts indicate, the bear market is about to start and when it does, we shall once again see who is swimming naked.

At least for me, only one mystery remains.  Are the FED officials (as above) good liars or are they just plain stupid. Judging on what they did to the economy thus far, I am leaning towards the later.     

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?  

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Attention: Would You Like To Know The Exact Date & Time Of The Bear Market Start? Find Out Now

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Interested in knowing the exact point (in both price and time) of the bear market start in 2014? You are in luck. Below is an excerpt from my upcoming book “Timed Value” telling you exactly when. While it was already published on this blog in November of 2013, I would like to bring your further attention to this portion of the book as it contains a useful forecast. Please note how accurate it has been since its original date of publication. 

————————————————————————— 

As mentioned earlier, the 3-DV of EF today is 12,364. If we analyze the four 3-DVs above, we will soon find out that 3 different numbers closely resemble today’s value of 12,364. They are

  • DE 14,094
  • AE 13,542
  • CE 13,873

All other 3-DVs and their derivatives either fall short or are outside the scope of our analysis. You will notice that the value AE is the closest one to our present value of 12,364. That basically means the market is not yet done moving up.  It also means that once the value AE 13,542 is reached, it is highly probable that it will mark the turning point in the stock market.

Further,  as of today the value EF consists of 2 input variables. Time Value of 7,742 trading hours and Price Value of 9,641 points.  Let’s further assume that based on our research we believe that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market and/or the move EF.  This gives us an additional 80 trading days or 520 trading hours.  By adding 520 trading hours to 7,742 trading hours we get all necessary information to make an accurate estimate of the bull market top.

In addition,  we can estimate how much the market will move up between now and March of 2014. We simply adjust our 3-DV equation to look like this

SQRT (8,262^2 + X^2 ) = 13,542

When we solve the equation for X, the X = 10,730. This value represents the PRICE portion of the equation at the completion of the move.  With today’s PRICE value being at 9,641 this means the market is likely to go up another 1,089 points (10,730 – 9,641) between today and March of 2014.

DOW PROJECTION: 16,097+1,089 = 17,186 in March of 2014

Think about this for a second and how powerful this simple calculation is. If you got your lattice structure figured out and/or you know the next 3-DV move,  you can predict with 100% certainty exactly when the stock market will top out. Not only when, but exactly where. To the day and to the point. So, while everyone else is playing the guessing game of how long this bull market will continue, you know the answer well ahead of that turning point taking place.  You know that you must hold for another 4 month in order to realize the maximum gain and then simply reverse to short position to benefit from the upcoming bear market decline.  Amazing, isn’t it?

But what if the forecast above is incorrect?

As I have mention so many times before in this book, no analyst or investor should look at any forecast in absolutely certain terms.  Until the lattice structure of the market is fully understood, there is always a possibility of being wrong. Unfortunately, understanding the lattice structure of the market is outside the scope of this book.  It is too complex and dynamic to be explained in this relatively short publication. Volumes of work must be published before clarity could be obtained. Yet, any analyst willing to put in the work, should be able to determine the underlying structure. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

Attention: Would You Like To Know The Exact Date & Time Of The Bear Market Start? Find Out Now

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How To Make A Fortune In The Upcoming Bear Market

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 9Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “What should I do to prepare for and make money in the upcoming bear market? Assuming your forecast is correct.” – Alex West 

    • What you should do to protect yourself in the upcoming bear market?
    • The best 3 options you have. 
    • How to profit substantially from the upcoming bear market. 
    • What sectors will decline the most and the secret to making a fortune during the bear markets. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014?

    • Why we are still in the bear market that started in 2000.
    • The secret behind the final leg down. 
    • Does fundamental and technical analysis confirm the bear market? 
    • When will the bear market end and how low will it go?  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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The Secret Behind Gold’s Decline

Breakout Writes: Here’s why gold’s drop isn’t done yet

 gold

Alas some investors in the old yellow metal might consider the dog’s fate a decent alternative to what’s happened to their portfolios of late. After more than a decade of doing nothing but move higher annually, physical gold and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) got destroyed in 2013. For good measure the Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (GDX) () got even more walloped, and has lost more than half its value over the last 52-weeks.

“Real interest rates are going up, the U.S. economy is improving, we’re in an environment where a return to normalcy is the course of the day. None of this is supportive of gold.”
 
Doll has some closing advice for gold investors: “If somebody has gold in a tiny little corner of their portfolio for insurance purposes, my hope for them is that gold doesn’t do well because everything else in their portfolio probably is going to do well. It’s a hedge. It’s insurance. Have a tiny corner, at most.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I am not a Gold expert.  I would be the first to admit that. Here my previous view on GOLD. However, given an overwhelmingly negative sentiment on the subject matter, it might be time to take another look.

Once again, fundamentally speaking there are too many variables for me to properly analyze gold. Also, while the technical picture remains bearish and weak, there are some signs of the bottom forming.  More importantly, as the article above indicates, overwhelmingly negative sentiment on gold might lead to a good trading opportunity for those who would like to explore it further. Here is why….

The majority view on the overall economy, the stock market and inflation/deflation is fundamentally wrong. The reason the Gold is down so much might not have anything to do with the metal itself and everything to do with speculative bubble forming in all other asset classes. With everyone chasing performance in the stock market, gold is no longer viewed as a hedge against uncertainty. Of course, precisely at the wrong time.  Should the bear market start in 2014 (as I have indicated), Gold should once again become “the hedge” against troubled market.  When it does, the price is likely to appreciate significantly. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

The Secret Behind Gold’s Decline 

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Why Day Trading Is For Fools

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 6

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “I have about $20,000 and I want to turn it into at least $500K over the next few years. I am following a number of day trading programs that claim its easy to do. What are your thoughts?” – Rodney 

    • Why day trading is for fools. 
    • The secret behind day trading pitch and why it is BS. 
    • How many Billionaire day traders do you know? 
    • How to turn your $20K into $500K and how long it is going to take. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Still Unemployed? Don’t Worry, Many Others Will Be Joining You Soon

Reuters Writes: U.S. job growth weakest in three years

 unemployment investwitalex

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers hired the fewest workers in almost three years in December, but the setback was likely to be temporary amid signs that cold weather conditions might have had an impact.

Nonfarm payrolls rose only 74,000 last month, the smallest increase since January 2011, and the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent, the Labor Department said on Friday. The unemployment rate was the lowest since October 2008 and in part reflected people leaving the labor force.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

WOW. Really? Due to cold weather? I am shocked.

The real reason behind this is rotten fundamentals of the US Economy that are getting worst by the day. Please don’t get me wrong. I am acutely aware of how the US Government and our financial media “propaganda machine” portrays recent gains in the stock market. According to them the economy is doing great, everyone should join hands and sing kumbaya as the stock market takes off to infinity and beyond. Making us all wealthy in the process.

Yet, the reality is quite different. Even thought they have pumped a tremendous amount of money into the economy, it is getting weaker by the day. There is no pricing power and businesses are not hiring due to uncertainty. I continue to see this in the quarterly reports that I read. No matter what they want you to believe, the jobs are not coming back anytime soon. In addition to poor economic conditions, productivity gains, outsourcing, technological advances and even robotics are all taking a tall on real job creation.  

The bottom line is this. If you have a good paying job….treasure it. If you don’t, try to get whatever you can.  As the bear market starts in 2014, corporations and businesses throughout the US will hand out pink slips by the million. Just as they did in 2000-2004 and 2007 – 2010.  I wish that wasn’t the case, but the reality can be harsh sometimes.    

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

Still Unemployed? Don’t Worry, Many Others Will Be Joining You Soon

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The Secret To Making Your Kids Wealthy

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in response to the readers question, “I want my kids to be successful and wealthy, what would you recommend we do now to make that happen?” – Allie Ortiz  

    • The Secret Behind Making Your Kids VERY VERY Rich.  
    • What you have to do now if you want your kids to be Millionaires by the age of 40 and Billionaires by the age of 60. 
    • Why its incredibly important that you start now and start with yourself. 
    • The shocking truth and why Albert Einstein agrees with me.  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

The Secret To Making Your Kids Wealthy

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France Is Being Flushed Down The Toilet, Just As Predicted

Bloomberg Writes: More Evidence France Is the New Sick Man of Europe

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While Europe’s economic recovery is slowly gaining traction, France is sliding backwards.

That’s the inescapable conclusion about newly reported data on business activity, including a survey released today by Markit Economics showing that France’s service-sector output contracted sharply in December, to a six-month low. An earlier report showed a steep drop in French manufacturing activity during December as well.

Those figures, along with rising French unemployment claims, suggest that France may have “slid back into recession late last year,” says Markit’s chief economist, Chris Williamson.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here. 

A little over a year ago, when the French Socialist Party was elected into power, I had a conversation with incredibly excited French government worker while in Asia.

Me: Listen, I think France has a huge problem. If the Socialist Party follows through on its campaign promises and implements anti business and taxing “the rich” policies, your economy will literally collapse.  

Frenchman:  You Americans are stupid and don’t get it. Our economy will only get stronger because of these new policies.  Plus, it’s not all about the economy. My lifestyle is more important. I should have another week of vacation and work less, not more. Let the companies and the rich pay for it. I don’t care…blah, blah, blah…

Yet, my analysis was right on the money. As I have mentioned in my previous post Lunatics Are Driving France Into Economic Suffering  the Socialist Party is going out of its way to destroy the economy by over regulating every possible productive corner of the French economy.  It is no wonder that their economy is suffering now in the midst of a massive worldwide credit infused speculative bubble that should technically make things better. Just imagine what happens to it once the bubble pops again (which it soon will) and most economies dive back into the recessionary mode.

Let me give you hint: French guillotine business should be booming by that time.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  


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The Secret Behind Timing The Market

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics.

    • Why Market Timing Is The Most Important Thing.  
    • The Secret Behind Timing The Market. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

The Secret Behind Timing The Market