Category: Invest with Alex

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How To Make A Fortune In The Upcoming Bear Market

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 9Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “What should I do to prepare for and make money in the upcoming bear market? Assuming your forecast is correct.” – Alex West 

    • What you should do to protect yourself in the upcoming bear market?
    • The best 3 options you have. 
    • How to profit substantially from the upcoming bear market. 
    • What sectors will decline the most and the secret to making a fortune during the bear markets. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014?

    • Why we are still in the bear market that started in 2000.
    • The secret behind the final leg down. 
    • Does fundamental and technical analysis confirm the bear market? 
    • When will the bear market end and how low will it go?  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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The Secret Behind Gold’s Decline

Breakout Writes: Here’s why gold’s drop isn’t done yet

 gold

Alas some investors in the old yellow metal might consider the dog’s fate a decent alternative to what’s happened to their portfolios of late. After more than a decade of doing nothing but move higher annually, physical gold and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) got destroyed in 2013. For good measure the Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (GDX) () got even more walloped, and has lost more than half its value over the last 52-weeks.

“Real interest rates are going up, the U.S. economy is improving, we’re in an environment where a return to normalcy is the course of the day. None of this is supportive of gold.”
 
Doll has some closing advice for gold investors: “If somebody has gold in a tiny little corner of their portfolio for insurance purposes, my hope for them is that gold doesn’t do well because everything else in their portfolio probably is going to do well. It’s a hedge. It’s insurance. Have a tiny corner, at most.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I am not a Gold expert.  I would be the first to admit that. Here my previous view on GOLD. However, given an overwhelmingly negative sentiment on the subject matter, it might be time to take another look.

Once again, fundamentally speaking there are too many variables for me to properly analyze gold. Also, while the technical picture remains bearish and weak, there are some signs of the bottom forming.  More importantly, as the article above indicates, overwhelmingly negative sentiment on gold might lead to a good trading opportunity for those who would like to explore it further. Here is why….

The majority view on the overall economy, the stock market and inflation/deflation is fundamentally wrong. The reason the Gold is down so much might not have anything to do with the metal itself and everything to do with speculative bubble forming in all other asset classes. With everyone chasing performance in the stock market, gold is no longer viewed as a hedge against uncertainty. Of course, precisely at the wrong time.  Should the bear market start in 2014 (as I have indicated), Gold should once again become “the hedge” against troubled market.  When it does, the price is likely to appreciate significantly. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

The Secret Behind Gold’s Decline 

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Why Day Trading Is For Fools

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 6

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in direct response to one of my readers questions, “I have about $20,000 and I want to turn it into at least $500K over the next few years. I am following a number of day trading programs that claim its easy to do. What are your thoughts?” – Rodney 

    • Why day trading is for fools. 
    • The secret behind day trading pitch and why it is BS. 
    • How many Billionaire day traders do you know? 
    • How to turn your $20K into $500K and how long it is going to take. 

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Still Unemployed? Don’t Worry, Many Others Will Be Joining You Soon

Reuters Writes: U.S. job growth weakest in three years

 unemployment investwitalex

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers hired the fewest workers in almost three years in December, but the setback was likely to be temporary amid signs that cold weather conditions might have had an impact.

Nonfarm payrolls rose only 74,000 last month, the smallest increase since January 2011, and the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent, the Labor Department said on Friday. The unemployment rate was the lowest since October 2008 and in part reflected people leaving the labor force.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

WOW. Really? Due to cold weather? I am shocked.

The real reason behind this is rotten fundamentals of the US Economy that are getting worst by the day. Please don’t get me wrong. I am acutely aware of how the US Government and our financial media “propaganda machine” portrays recent gains in the stock market. According to them the economy is doing great, everyone should join hands and sing kumbaya as the stock market takes off to infinity and beyond. Making us all wealthy in the process.

Yet, the reality is quite different. Even thought they have pumped a tremendous amount of money into the economy, it is getting weaker by the day. There is no pricing power and businesses are not hiring due to uncertainty. I continue to see this in the quarterly reports that I read. No matter what they want you to believe, the jobs are not coming back anytime soon. In addition to poor economic conditions, productivity gains, outsourcing, technological advances and even robotics are all taking a tall on real job creation.  

The bottom line is this. If you have a good paying job….treasure it. If you don’t, try to get whatever you can.  As the bear market starts in 2014, corporations and businesses throughout the US will hand out pink slips by the million. Just as they did in 2000-2004 and 2007 – 2010.  I wish that wasn’t the case, but the reality can be harsh sometimes.    

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

Still Unemployed? Don’t Worry, Many Others Will Be Joining You Soon

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The Secret To Making Your Kids Wealthy

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Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics and is in response to the readers question, “I want my kids to be successful and wealthy, what would you recommend we do now to make that happen?” – Allie Ortiz  

    • The Secret Behind Making Your Kids VERY VERY Rich.  
    • What you have to do now if you want your kids to be Millionaires by the age of 40 and Billionaires by the age of 60. 
    • Why its incredibly important that you start now and start with yourself. 
    • The shocking truth and why Albert Einstein agrees with me.  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

The Secret To Making Your Kids Wealthy

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France Is Being Flushed Down The Toilet, Just As Predicted

Bloomberg Writes: More Evidence France Is the New Sick Man of Europe

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While Europe’s economic recovery is slowly gaining traction, France is sliding backwards.

That’s the inescapable conclusion about newly reported data on business activity, including a survey released today by Markit Economics showing that France’s service-sector output contracted sharply in December, to a six-month low. An earlier report showed a steep drop in French manufacturing activity during December as well.

Those figures, along with rising French unemployment claims, suggest that France may have “slid back into recession late last year,” says Markit’s chief economist, Chris Williamson.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here. 

A little over a year ago, when the French Socialist Party was elected into power, I had a conversation with incredibly excited French government worker while in Asia.

Me: Listen, I think France has a huge problem. If the Socialist Party follows through on its campaign promises and implements anti business and taxing “the rich” policies, your economy will literally collapse.  

Frenchman:  You Americans are stupid and don’t get it. Our economy will only get stronger because of these new policies.  Plus, it’s not all about the economy. My lifestyle is more important. I should have another week of vacation and work less, not more. Let the companies and the rich pay for it. I don’t care…blah, blah, blah…

Yet, my analysis was right on the money. As I have mentioned in my previous post Lunatics Are Driving France Into Economic Suffering  the Socialist Party is going out of its way to destroy the economy by over regulating every possible productive corner of the French economy.  It is no wonder that their economy is suffering now in the midst of a massive worldwide credit infused speculative bubble that should technically make things better. Just imagine what happens to it once the bubble pops again (which it soon will) and most economies dive back into the recessionary mode.

Let me give you hint: French guillotine business should be booming by that time.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  


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Warning: Mutual Fund Inflows Are At Pre 2000 Collapse Levels. Same Outcome?

TrimTabs reports Fund Flow Records Smashed Across the Board in 2013.

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 TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that U.S.-listed equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds took in a record $352 billion in 2013, smashing the previous record inflow of $324 billion in 2000.  Meanwhile, U.S.-listed bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds redeemed a record $86 billion, topping the previous record outflow of $62 billion in 1994.

“The Fed finally succeeded last year in its long-running campaign to coax fund investors to speculate,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs.  “The ‘great rotation’ that some market strategists long anticipated is under way.”

In a note to clients, TrimTabs explained that U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds received $156 billion in 2013, the first inflow since 2007 and the biggest inflow since the record inflow of $274 billion in 2000.  Global equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds received $195 billion, edging past the previous record inflow of $183 billion in 2006.

There you have it. If you have been wondering what is causing this massive rally in the stock market, wonder no more. The stocks are “Melting Up” because everyone is “Panicking Into Stocks” and exactly at the wrong time.

Please note that the funds inflow smashed the 2000 record by about $28 Billion. While not significantly higher, it confirms what we have been talking about here. Primarily, the psychological factors behind  the run up.  People/funds are taking money out of Bond Funds and rolling them into Stock Funds at record numbers.

What’s wrong with that?

Technically nothing.  People are free to do as they wish. Yet, from a historical perspective, this tends to happen late in the bull market. During the so called Blow Off Phase or the last phase of the run up.  As I have mentioned many times before, today’s market feels exactly that way. Massive speculation, psychology of the crowd pushing everyone to be in the stock market, overpriced assets, weak underlying economic base and fundamentals that are driven by nothing more than a crazy expansion of credit by the FED. That’s just a few of the reasons.

The bottom line is this. The bear market is about to start. My mathematical work clearly confirms that.  Be very careful going forward and think about getting out of stocks completely once the market confirms the reversal.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Warning: Mutual Fund Inflows Are At Pre 2000 Collapse Levels. Same Outcome?

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Why You Shouldn’t Be “Panic Buying Stocks” Right Now

Bloomberg Writes: Bull Market Has Years Left  for Shaoul on S&P 500 Values

 panic-buying-investwithalex

Valuations in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased by the most since the financial crisis last year as 460 stocks rose, more than any year since at least 1990. Neither are reasons to bet against equities now.

While Wall Street strategists are the most cautious in almost a decade after the broadest U.S. rally on record sent price-earnings ratios up 19 percent, expanding multiples have preceded advances twice as often as they have retreats, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Since 1936, the S&P 500 (SPX)has risen 69 percent of the time following quarters when valuations widened, the data show. The average return is 14 percent in years after more than 400 constituents climbed, according to data compiled by Strategas Research Partners.

“One sign that things are becoming more popular is they’re more expensive,” Michael Shaoul, the chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC, which oversees about $19 billion, said in a Jan. 2 interview in New York. “I would be quite surprised if this bull market didn’t continue for another two to three years.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Most people, smart money, dumb money, institutions and money managers are panicking into stocks.  I didn’t think it was possible, but as surely as night follows day, human psychology doesn’t change.

This is particularly true just a little under 5 years after everyone got their head handed to them during the 2007-2009 decline. A fascinating thing to watch from the psychological perspective particularly because we know, based on my mathematical timing work, that the last phase of the bear market is about to start. When we look at the market from such a perspective a number of things become apparent. First, even though the “real” fundamentals are terrible, if you are to listen to most people in the financial media the fundamentals have never been better. Then you have everyone predicting the continuation of the bull market for at least a few more years. To infinity and beyond.  

Finally, there is a tremendous amount of psychological pressure on everyone to be back in the market. It seems like everyone is making money hand over fist and only the real BIG IDIOTS remain on the sidelines. Yet, we know the opposite is true. What we are witnessing now is the blow off phase of the bull market that is about to complete. Please do not forget that.

Interested in knowing exactly when the bear market will start? Please check out our premium section. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

 Why You Shouldn’t Be “Panic Buying Stocks” Right Now