Bloomberg Writes: The U.S. Economy Is Turning European

The U.S. economy is getting as bad as Europe at bouncing back from recessions and generating jobs, and a decrease in societal trust may be a big factor, according to a research paper presented today at the Brookings Institution.

The paper is called “Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence,” and it’s by Olivier Coibion of the University of Texas at Austin and Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas of the University of California at Berkeley.

Amerisclerosis is the economic version of atherosclerosis, also known as hardening of the arteries—a disease that contributes to heart attacks and strokes. In the 1980s, economists coined the term Eurosclerosis to describe Europe’s malfunctioning jobs market. The U.S. is going the same direction, the authors say.

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Amerisclerosis.  Seriously??? Is that the best US Economist can come up with?

I am not sure why so many smart people find it so difficult to understand our current economic environment and/or lack of economic growth/improvement. It is as easy as 1-2-3.

1. We exist in an artificial Credit Finance Economy:  Meaning that whatever recovery we have seen was financed not by real money, but “out of thin air” printed money to sustain the US Economy and to prevent a collapse/recession. The velocity of that money is slowing down now and the US Economy will soon roll over into a recession.

2. Robotics and Outsourcing: Brace yourself over the next 10-20 years. Whatever jobs robots can do or that can be outsourced  will disappear over that time frame. Nothing can be done about it. With real unemployment/underemployment already as high as 15-20% in the US, it doesn’t bode well for the overall economy.

3. Structural Problems: There are so many that I will just mention a few. Attempted currency debasement, healthcare, artificially low interest rates, unemployment, housing bubble, cost of education, car sales bubble, etc….  Of course most of these can be directly tied to issue #1 above.

Until these 3 issues are dealt with, the US Economy is not going anywhere. The only way to deal with it is to stop insane fiscal policies by the FED and the Federal Government and let the US Economy go through a severe recession and defaults.

Unfortunately, no one in the US Government has the balls to do just that as they all practice their can kicking ability. Since that is the case I would expect the US Economy to slowly decline over the next decade to further deteriorate the American standard of living.

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CNBC Writes: Blackstone: We’re in an ‘epic credit bubble’

One of the world’s largest investment firms believes the financial system is overly leveraged.

“We are in the middle of an epic credit bubble, in my opinion, the likes of which I haven’t seen in my career in private equity,” Joseph Baratta, The Blackstone Group (BX)’s global head of private equity, said Thursday night at the Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst Conference in New York City. “The cost of a high yield bond on an absolute coupon basis is as low as it’s ever been.”

“We’re not just levering up U.S. GDP into multiples today,” Baratta said. “I do expect mean reversion to happen at some point on interest rates, on credit spreads, on the cost of some investment grade corporate credit.”

The high valuation of many companies today makes it harder for them to grow. “The biggest risk to returns of this vintage is that exit multiples are depressed,” Baratta said.

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I strongly agree with Blackstone on this point.  In relative terms we are in the largest credit bubble mankind has ever seen. The situation we find ourselves in now is like a very bad runaway science experiment that cannot be stopped.

How will it end? No one knows, but the outcome cannot be pretty. What we have experienced in 2007-2009 was just a preview. Now that the credit bubble is much bigger only time will tell us how this experiment will end.  Perhaps with a bang or perhaps with an extended period of economic suffering.

What I do not agree with is that Blackstone doesn’t necessary see it as a problems by indicating that they are still bullish on the economy. The only reasons we haven’t seen the full impact of this massive credit bubble is because “so far” the Fed has been able to control the interest rates. As soon as the Fed losses this control (and they will) the interest rates will zoom up.  At that point anticipate the credit bubble to implode and take the housing market, the stock market, car sales, retails sales and the overall economy down with it.

So, what’s the point here? I am not the only crazy person running around and screaming that we are in a massive credit bubble that is soon to explode. World’s largest hedge fund believes that much as well. As such, you have been warned. 

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Bloomberg Writes:  Gross Says Investors Shouldn’t Trust Moody’s on U.S. AAA Rating

Investors shouldn’t trust the opinion of Moody’s Investors Service on the U.S.’s Aaa rating and should rely instead on the company’s competitors, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. founder Bill Gross.

Moody’s and the U.S. Treasury are one “happy family,” Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said today in a post on Twitter. “Trust S&P, Fitch & Egan Jones” for credit ratings, he wrote. Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, said Gross was referring to Moody’s stance on the U.S. debt limit and potential for a government shutdown.

Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. rating to AA+ from AAA in August 2011, a move that reflected the impasse over raising the debt limit as well as the government’s lack of a plan to rein in its debt load.

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I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t Trust Moody’s with watching my dead grandmother. I am not trying to be boastful, but you could have seen 2007-2009 meltdown coming from 10 miles away. I am not sure why an organization such as Moody’s with hundreds of financial analysts on stuff across multiple industries couldn’t see it coming. As you remember they have downgraded companies after the fact. Well, late enough for most investors to lose a lot of their money.

Actually, I do know. It’s called the “conflict of interest”. Bill Gross is absolutely correct. Basically Moody’s and the US Government are now a one entity scratching each other’s back. Should you care? Not really, but I do want you to be aware of the fact. Next time they either upgrade or downgrade something, view it with some skepticism at best. Know that they do not work for you, but large financial interests who’s objective might be counter to yours.  Either way, you should always do your own research and not depend on somebody else’s opinion.

On a related note, there is a parade of Senators and Congressman running around on TV. They are yelling and screaming that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the US Government will shut down and that will lead to a Great Depression. Something along those lines.  Do me a favor and tune them out. The stock market could care less and so should you. They will pass it and everything will be fine. 

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Bloomberg Writes: Bitcoin Spawns China Virtual IPOs as U.S. Scrutiny Grows

Bitcoin craze is reaching new heighs in China.

Sun Minjie is a 28-year-old Internet worker who lives in Beijing. Eager to profit from growing demand for the digital currency, Sun has invested more than $3,000 in a company called 796 Xchange Ltd., an online exchange for trading stocks and other financial instruments related to Bitcoin, where initial public offerings are also being held.

He’s part of a small but growing group of investors in China who have put the country into contention with the U.S. as the biggest downloader of the virtual money that’s being used to buy a growing range of goods and services online. While intensified scrutiny by U.S. regulators casts doubt on the currency’s future there, China’s Bitcoin industry is expanding.

“What’s worrisome is that a lot of people could be just treating it as a speculative investment,” said Peter Pak, head of trading of BOCI Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “In China, the stock market, property and bond market are all not so good, so people get really excited when they hear of a new investment that generates high returns.”

Sun’s outlay of about 28 Bitcoins — or $3,108 — for more than 400 shares in 796 Xchange has returned about 46 percent since the stock’s Aug. 1 debut on the company’s own website. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) has only gained about 2 percent during the same period.

Expensive to Crack’

Bitcoin is similar to other currencies — say, the Mexican peso — except it’s not controlled by any government and the total number is capped at about 21 million coins. Computer users can “mine” them by solving mathematical puzzles — uncovering the hidden series of letters and numbers that matches up with security keys specified by the computer programmers who invented Bitcoin in 2009. As more are mined, the puzzles get harder, and therefore more expensive to crack.

Sun turned to shares of Bitcoin companies after initially trying to mine the currency crunching algorithms on souped-up PCs at his office and home. He gave up after a month, concluding that his computers weren’t up to the task.

“Simple desktops can no longer dig them up,” he said.

Read the rest of the article here.

So, is Bitcoin a legitimate currency, a speculative investment or the future. This is a complex matter to discuss as there could be an infinite number of arguments made for or against it. However, here are some basic points to understand…. 

1. Understand that Bitcoin is a pure speculation at this stage. There is nothing to back it up and there is nothing to assign any sort of fundamental value to it.   As such, speculate away, but know that while it can appreciate significantly it can also go to zero in no time.

2. The US Government can crush it at will and at any time. Yes, I know it cannot be controlled by the government, it is independent and out there on the net. However, don’t be a fool.  As NSA just showed, the US Government basically controls the Internet and as such if it really wants to, it can destroy Bitcoin in hours through various means.

3. There is very little volume and the total value as a currency is very low. While it can be an advantage when the currency is going up, good luck trying to get out of it while it is heading down.  Plus, the fact that people in China see it as an investment vehicle now is a huge negative red flag.

Basically, there is no fundamental value to invest in Bitcoin at this stage. While it can appreciate significantly, know that all gains would be out of pure speculation.  There are no fundamentals to back it up.  On the flip side it can go to zero either because of the speculation or if the US Government decides (for whatever reason) to pull the plug on it.  I say it is too much risk if you value your money. 

Well, actually and technically speaking, I believe that the US Economy never left the recession even though the stock market has appreciated well over 100% since the March of 2009 bottom.  Most of the gains where driven by technical reasons as well as massive infusion of capital into the system by the FED. Basically, everything had to appreciate in value.

Please watch this Lance Roberts, Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long video sharing their research on the  question above through the use of 52 slides in this fast moving 43 minute video. I couldn’t agree more and it will soon become evident as the market begins its decline.