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What Are You Smoking Mr.Buffett?

Bloomberg Writes: Buffett Calls Fed History’s Greatest Hedge Fund

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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett compared the U.S. Federal Reserve to a hedge fund because of the central bank’s ability to profit from bond purchases while accumulating a balance sheet of more than $3 trillion.

 

“The Fed is the greatest hedge fund in history,” Buffett told students yesterday at Georgetown University in Washington. It’s generating “$80 billion or $90 billion a year probably” in revenue for the U.S. government, he said. “And that wasn’t the case a few years back.”

The central bank has been buying $85 billion of bonds a month to help the U.S. recover as it emerges from the deepest slump since the Great Depression. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other Fed policy makers unexpectedly opted this week to sustain that pace of asset purchases instead of tapering it, saying they need to see more signs of lasting improvement in the economy.

The Fed remitted $88.4 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department last year. The payments have ballooned as the central bank built its balance sheet during the past five years.

The Fed “is under no pressure, none whatsoever to have to deleverage,” Buffett said. “So it can pick its time, and if you have somebody wise there — and I think Bernanke is wise, and I certainly expect his successor to be — it can be handled. But it is something that’s never quite been done on this scale. It will be interesting to watch.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here.

 

This article is a must read for everyone. If it doesn’t illustrate to you that our credit finance depended US Economy is nothing more than a huge FRAUD, nothing will.

Here is how the FRAUD works.

  1. Mr. Bernanke sits in his comfortable leather chair at the FED, pushes a computer button on his keyboard and BOOM, about $85 Billion (yes, billion) appear out of thin air. That happens every month.
  2. Mr. Bernanke then pushes another button on the keyboard and buys $85 Billion worth of US Treasury. Every month. (AKA. Lending to the US Government)
  3. The US Government then proceeds to pay interest on such “out of thin air” money and that goes to the FED.
  4. The FED then turns around and pays the interest money back to the US Government. Net of fees of course(which I don’t even want to go in here).

Does anyone know how I can get into this free money business?

Keep in mind that most if not all financial institutions (including banks) in the US are currently making money off of this scheme.

So, what’s the problem?

Well, all of this happens on the money that never actually existed in the first place. We can talk about structural problems that this action leads to, such as currency debasement and inflation, but for our purpose lets concentrate on something else.

This does, in fact, make the FED the largest hedge fund in the world. Excuse me, not a hedge fund, but a Ponzi Scheme (since they are creating money out of thin air). Usually this goes uninterrupted until and unless the confidence goes away. At that point, the Ponzi Scheme collapses within a very short period of time.   

As of the right now the FED has an substantial amount of confidence from both domestic and international investors. Will that continue? Probably, until one day it doesn’t. When will that day come? No one knows, but when it does the whole thing will collapse within a short period of time. No doubt about it.

The only problem is, instead of these fraudsters playing with just your retirement account, these guys play with the entire US Economy. When it goes…and it will….everything will collapse.

And they put Bernie Madoff and Martha Steward in jail? These guys are not even on the same planet when it comes to defrauding the American people.

So, is Mr. Buffett smoking something and doesn’t see this? Of course he sees and fully understands the stated above. However, he owns/runs a huge conglomerate that depends on growth and stability of the overall US Economy. For him to say anything else but what he said would be foolish. But not for me. 

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German People, You Have Chosen Poorly

Bloomberg Writes: Merkel Records Biggest Victory Since Kohl’s Reunification Vote

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Angela Merkel won an overwhelming endorsement from German voters, putting the country’s first female chancellor on course for the biggest election tally since Helmut Kohl’s post-reunification victory of 1990.  Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc took 41.8 percent to 25.6 percent for the Social Democratsof Peer Steinbrueck in yesterday’s election, projections on ZDF television showed at 12:02 a.m. in Berlin. That leaves her short of a majority and needing a coalition partner to govern Europe’s biggest economy.

 “This is a super result,” Merkel, who is now set to become the fourth chancellor since the war to win a third term, told supporters at her party’s headquarters in Berlin. “To the voters, I promise that we will handle it responsibly and with care. We will do everything we can in the next four years to ensure that they’re once again successful years for Germany.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

 

In one of my previous posts Germany Should Leave The European Union. Like Now  I have argued that German people have a wonderful opportunity to shift the direction of their country towards economic prosperity.   Unfortunately that did not happen on September 22nd as Merkel and her party won re-election.  While seemingly unimportant, this decision will have severe consequences on the overall global economy.

Germany is an economic powerhouse and is the only thing that’s keeping “fiscal mental hospital” that is European Union together. I strongly believe that without Germany, European Union has no chance for a very long survival.  German people had a wonderful opportunity to set their country on the path to eventually leave the EU by voting for AfD, but they let it slip away.

So, what now?

Unfortunately, for Germany nothing will change going forward. Germany will continue to support Greece, Italy, Spain and the rest of the freeloaders for the foreseeable future at the expense of the German people. That will put a significant drag on the overall German economy and any chance of loosening up the shackles that could have set Germany on the path to economic prosperity they haven’t seen before.

In summary, more of the same as fiscal insanity that is EU continues uninterrupted.

 

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Timing The Real Estate Market Crash

So, do you want to know when the real estate market will start heading south, way south? Read on.

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As of right now,  the real estate market in the US is anything but clear. Here is just a few articles from today’s paper to prove my point.

 

Confusing at best, isn’t it?

The reason real estate data is all over the place is because the real estate market is undergoing a topping process. As I have mentioned earlier,  that is the way the bear market in anything works. It sucks investors back in before slamming the door and resuming it’s decline. Once again, this stage of the decline should at least 2X the magnitude of the previous one between 2007-2011.

The million dollar question is….when will it happen? Thanks to our friends at Doctor Housing Bubble we might have an answer.

They have correctly identified Las Vegas Real Estate Market as the one to watch for the first signs that the overall (nationwide) real estate market is about to roll over and start it’s decline. Here is why…

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Reason #1: Las Vegas market has seen the fastest real estate appreciation in the nation over the last year. Up 34% in just the last year alone. That is a stunning pace of appreciation.

Reason #2: The majority of buyers in the Las Vegas market are investors/speculators.  The number is estimated to be at 50-70%.   With about 60% of buyers paying in cash.

las-vegas-home-buyers-with-cash-investwithalex

What does it all mean? 

Las Vegas market is experiencing a speculator frenzy with 50-70% in cash buying from investors. There are no fundamental reasons for that to happen in Las Vegas. One can argue that real estate there was especially depressed but I don’t find that argument valid based on the median price and median income at the time of 2010-11 bottom.  Plus, there is no housing shortage.

Either way you slice it,  Las Vegas real estate market is driven by pure speculation and hot money. As such, it could be the first market to cool down and reverse itself  -OR-  it could just blow up.  

Therefore,  if you are interested in timing the real estate market with great precision it might be a good idea to start watching Las Vegas real estate like a hawk.   

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Jim Rogers On Gold

Daily Ticker Writes: Jim Rogers Forecasts a Drop to $900

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Commodities investor Jim Rogers tells The Daily Ticker that gold, having lost its luster as a safe haven, could drop to $900 or $1,000 in the next 1-2 years. Longer term, he has a very different forecast. Gold will soar to “well beyond $1,900 an ounce,” topping its record $1,920 high reached in September 2011, says Rogers, author of Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets. The reason: “massive currency debasement” around the world. “Every major central bank in the world is printing a lot of money plus war, chaos, riots in the street, governments failing,” says Rogers.

Despite that forecast, Rogers warns investments not to consider gold – or any other investment — safe. “I would never use the word ‘safe’ when I’m speaking about investing.”

There are only a few investors that I listen to when they speak. Jim Rogers is one of them. A brilliant and very interesting guy.  So, when he says something you better listen. I highly recommend that you click on the link and listen what he has to say. The video is just 2 minutes long. 

My stock market timing work kind of confirms his thesis on gold. I already talked about gold in one of my previous posts CLICK HERE and the fact that I don’t really understand it or know how to value it properly.

Jim mentions that he anticipates gold to decline further over the next few years to shake out the bulls before resuming its bull market due to currency debasement and inflation. My work confirms this as a highly probably scenario. 

As the markets and the economy decline over the next few years in a deflationary environment, so should the gold.  As we bottom in 2016 and begin the inflation cycle I talked about before, gold should start appreciating. Perhaps significantly. Just my two cents. 

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Buffett Can’t Find Any Stocks

Reuters Writes: Buffett lauds Bernanke but laments lack of investment bargains

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(Reuters) – Warren Buffett said on Thursday he would recommend reappointing Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, while adding that low interest rates have inflated asset values and complicated his hunt for investments at his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

The billionaire investor spoke one day after the central bank surprised investors by postponing its expected wind-down of monetary stimulus, which has in five years more than tripled the Fed’s balance sheet to above $3.6 trillion.

“Since the panic of five years ago, he’s done a terrific job,” Buffett said on CNBC television in a joint interview with Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America Corp.

Asked if he would reappoint Bernanke when his term expires, Buffett said: “That’s what I would do.”

Nevertheless, at an event later Thursday afternoon at Georgetown University, Buffett said that the Fed’s eventual exit from its monthly bond-buying program will carry unforeseen risks.

“We are in an experiment which hasn’t really been tried before,” he said, adding that “buying securities is usually easier than selling securities.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

As the article indicates Mr. Buffett  claims not to be able to find any bargains or value stocks. I second that sentiment.   As of right now I am unable to find any worthwhile value stocks at all. There are some special situations here and there, but overall everything is either fairly priced or overpriced.

That in itself is not necessary a problem.  It is the nature of the stock market to cycle up and down to provide trading opportunities. However, when you combine the current macro economic backdrop with the fact that most stocks are too expensive, the situation is not pretty.

Can they get even more expensive? Of course they can, but as my stock market timing work indicates that shouldn’t last for long. The stock market is in the topping process and when complete we should receive a number of confirmations that the bear market is back. Once again, I don’t believe we have to wait too much longer now.  

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Stock Market Update, Sept 19th, 2013

Sept 19 2013 chart

 

I continue to advice to maintain a long position for the time being, but be ready to switch direction at a moments notice.  

Even though I am “Bear” anticipating the market to decline significantly over the next few years, I do have to admit the chart and other technical indicators look strong here. This is a very interesting time. Will the market go on to set a new high or will it be unable to push much higher from here? Will it pause or reverse here? 

All we can do for now is maintain our long position and wait for a confirmation that the bear market is here. Are we there yet or will March of 2014 (as I have mentioned earlier) be the actual top? The market did open a bunch of gaps at 15,300 that it will have to go down in order to close, but at least for now the short term picture looks fairly good here.  There is no need to fight that. 

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Reality Of Today’s FED Move

Bloomberg Writes: The Fed’s ‘No Taper’ Sparks a Trading Frenzy

 

S&P 500 5-minute

The Federal Reserve surprised nearly everyone today when its Open Market Committee announced at 2 p.m. that it would not taper its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases because it is concerned about weakness in the economy. The announcement led to an across-the-board rally as investors hurried to plow money into stocks and commodities.

The market reaction was instantaneous: According to data off my Bloomberg terminal, between 1:59 p.m. and 2:00 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 141 points, from 15,485 to 15,626. Over the next two and a half hours, the Dow added another 50 points to close up 147 points on the day.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here 

On a more serious note, while the market and most people celebrate I see it from a different perspective. While most market participants see it as “The Fed will not taper $85 Billion per month stimulus” I see it as “The Fed CANNOT taper $85 Billion per month stimulus”. 

There is a significant difference between these two statements. You see, Ben Bernanke and the Fed understand that if they stop the QE bond purchasing program the following things will happen within a short period of time. 

  • Interest rates will shoot up. 
  • Dollar will strengthen. 
  • Deflation will finally be evident. 
  • Stock market will collapse. 
  • Real estate market and auto sales will collapse. 
  • The US Economy will tank. 

They do not want to allow that to happen for obvious reasons. However, the laws of physics cannot be bypassed. Sooner or later all of the things above will happen irregardless of what the Fed does. 

I do find it troubling that the market only went up 150 points or so. That is a fairly weak performance considering what has happened. In no uncertain terms the FED told everyone that it will keep this credit financed speculation party going for as long as possible. 

The biggest mistake I think everyone is making is the fact that they believe the FED has control of the markets. That is not even close to reality. They do not control anything. Don’t be surprised if the market reverses tomorrow and begins its next let down. 

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How The Stock Market Really Works (PART 1)

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People have a lot of misconceptions about how the stock market works. The primary two are…

  1. That the stock market is random and
  2. News, events, policy, governments, etc…. drive the stock market.

After in depth study of the market over the last 15 years, nothing could be further from the truth. The market is NOT random and news/events, etc… have no impact on the overall trajectory of the stock market. As a matter of fact, it is the market that drives events and not the other way around.

So, how does the market work? The stock market is a lot more complicated than most people believe. You see, most people view it as a two dimensional (2-D) representation of time moving up and down over time. It is a very simplistic view to take, but that’s what everyone does.  

However, the market is A LOT more complicated than that. Before I tell you what I mean, allow me to bring your attention to something else for a second. I want you to realize that Mother Nature does not produce 2-D systems. Nothing in nature is 2-D while everything in nature is at least 3 Dimensional (3-D). Look around you. Everything in the physical realm, from planets to atoms exists in 3-D.

What does this have to do with the stock market? Everything.

The stock market is NOT a 2-D environment. It exists in at least a 3 Dimensional environment. It is our human mind that cannot comprehend that and as such forces the stock market chart into the 2-D (Time/Price) chart.

Let me give you an example. Take a look at the 3-D tunnel above. Imagine a snake moving away from you by hugging the walls of the tunnel. Well, that is a 3-D movement. However, if you take this same tunnel and turn it so you face it head on, the ONLY movement you will see is UP and DOWN 2-D movements within the tunnel.

That is exactly what we see on the stock market chart. Yet, the market is a lot more complicated. Not only does it have up and down movements, it moves sideways (in volume) as well.  When one understand that, one can take financial/market analysis to the next level and predict the timing of the stock market moves mathematically with great accuracy.

This concludes Part 1 of How The Stock Market Really Works. 

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Inflation or Deflation. What’s Next For The US?

Bloomberg Writes: Japanese Ask, What’s Wrong With a Little Deflation?

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As Haruhiko Kuroda tries to spur Japan (JGDPAGDP)’s inflation rate, he faces a worrying question: What if his Bank of Japan predecessor was right about why he will fail?

In June 2011, then-BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa faced extreme pressure to double the monetary base, a step Kuroda took just days after replacing him in March. When Shirakawa, a University of Chicago-trained economist, was asked why he’d refused to budge, he offered a surprising excuse: Japan’s aging population, whose fixed incomes would be eaten away by rising prices. Politicians thought the rationale was a copout. Shinzo Abe’s first act as prime minister was to dump Shirakawa.

 “The only easy part is starting to print the money because it does not hurt anyone for the first year,” Schulz says. “But after that, when prices start to go up, it really depends on the view at that time: Will people only see the higher costs, or will they see the brighter future that the government is selling with its money? If they don’t, a turn in public opinion will stop the BOJ before expectations have changed enough to get the economy on an inflationary track.” Kuroda could yet prove his predecessor wrong, but he’s going to need help from his prime minister — and soon.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

A superb article on deflation and I definitely recommend reading it in full.  

I have been a proponent that the US has been in a deflationary environment since at least the early 2000’s. I know there are a lot of people running around screaming inflation, but we must first define what inflation and deflation is. While there are many definitions, mine is …..Inflation is expansion of credit, while deflation is contraction of credit. Simple as that.

The reason most people believe we are experiencing or will experience inflation and/or hyperinflation is because of FED’s massive infusion of credit into the system over the last 10 years. Without it, we would have already seen concrete evidence of deflation all over the place.

Here is the situation. Deflation is destruction of credit and subsequent decline of prices due to defaults, overcapacity and the self feeding trend it generates. We have already started the process of deflation in two very important areas as % of GDP. Financial and real estate sector in both 2000-2003 and 2007-2009.

However, due to the FED’s crazy insistence on inflation they did paper over any sign of deflation by infusing massive amounts of credit and money supply into the US Financial system. What you have to understand is that such a move didn’t fix anything, it only made things worse and the upcoming recession more severe. Now with velocity of bailout money slowing down, more defaults and deflation is unavoidable.

That is where we find ourselves today. So, will the US experience a Japan style deflation? Yes and No. I will talk about it in more detail in my future writings.  

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Why Did Larry Summers Really Back Out From FED Chairman Role

Reuters Writes:  Dollar slips, bonds & shares rally as Summers drops out

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SYDNEY (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar slid while bonds and shares rallied in Asia on Monday after Lawrence Summers dropped from the race to be head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Investors wagered that Fed policy would stay easier for longer under the other main candidate, Janet Yellen.

The surprise news comes just before the central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide when and by how much to scale back its monthly asset purchases from the current pace of $85 billion.

Markets had perceived Summers as less wedded to aggressive policies such as quantitative easing and more likely to scale it back quicker than the more dovish Yellen, who is currently second in command at the Fed.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Why did Larry Summers really drop out?  Do you think it was because he was afraid of the confirmation fight? Guys  like Summers are rarely impacted or afraid of confirmation committees or pressures associated with holding such an office.

Here is what I believe the real reason is. You see, as opposed to Mr. Bernanke who is an economic theoretician working with hypothetical economic models to drive US Monetary Policy,  Mr. Summers is a market participant closely familiar with how the real world works. I believe Mr. Summers clearly understands where we are in the economic cycle and this credit infused massive financial bubble. He know what is coming over the next few years.  

Simply put, he doesn’t want to be a captain of the Titanic (that is the US Economy) when it sinks and then be blamed for it.  I believe Mr. Summers has enough common sense to understand that the monetary policy US Fed has instituted over the last decade cannot continue for much longer. When it ends (and it will) the markets and the US Economy will suffer though a deep recession or worse on both the main/wall street.  Would you want to be in charge of a sinking ship, no matter how prestigious or powerful the job is?  I know I wouldn’t.

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