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DOW Jones Reshuffling. Does It Make A Difference?

BusinessWeek Writes: How New Entrants Will Swing the Dow

 wall-street-bull-investwithalex

The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average just announced its biggest rejiggering in some time: booting components Alcoa (AA), Bank of America (BAC), andHewlett-Packard (HPQ) to induct Goldman Sachs (GS), Visa (V), and Nike (NKE)into its elite group of 30. Prepare yourselves for a very different blue-chip index.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here.

Does this matter? From a trading perspective the answer is most definitely NO. The Dow Jones average will experience no deviation from its original trading pattern due to these changes. It will continue to perform as if there was no change. However, I do want to bring your attention so something interesting.

Please note that we have two huge Finance conglomerates coming into the index (Visa/Goldman Sachs).  What does that mean? It is simply another confirmation that the Financial sector is now the largest sector of the US economy as the % of GDP.

Is that good or bad? Historically speaking that is really bad. If we study history we soon learn that when any given society shifted from production to money shuffling (as the US has done in a big way over the last 2 decades), it always ends badly for the Nation in question. Will this be the case for the US as well? I am afraid so. 

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Why The USA Housing Market Is About To Collapse

(Quick Note:  Dear reader….. I can drop a substantial amount of economic and statistical data on you to support the points below. However, if past is any indicator any such economic data would put most readers to sleep within 10 second.  Plus, a volume of data/analysis can be published in regards to every single point below. As such, I offer only a quick summary and my conclusion for your reference.   Should you require any additional information about the thesis below, please contact me directly. )

housing bubble

 

Yes, I called it perfectly in 2006-2007 and now I am saying that it is not over. 

Before we can understand where we are now and where we are going in the future we must understand where we came from. The Real Estate run up that we have experienced between 1997-2007 has no historical  precedent.  Real estate data going all the way back to 1790 clearly shows that the US housing market basically appreciated at the rate of inflation.  Yes, there were some bubbles and substantial declines, but overall, appreciation at the rate of inflation is an appropriate way to look at the US real estate sector.

real estate 1 investwithalex

 

A QUICK HISTORY LESSON:

All of that changed in 1997 when Bill Clinton signed The Taxpayer Relief Act into law, basically allowing $250,000 in tax free capital gains in real estate.  While real estate was already appreciating at a good clip at that time, that law added fire to the trend. 

Later,  fearing significant economic slowdown in 2002-2003 the Bush administration added a huge amount of jet fuel to the Real Estate Bubble by cutting interest rates and making mortgage finance available to everyone (even to the dead people).  As people used to say, if you can fog a mirror you can get a mortgage. Of course, all of that led to the largest finance bubble in the history of mankind that “kind of” melted down in 2007-2009. I say “kind of” because most of those excesses are still in the financial system and will have to be worked through in the future.  

 

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Issue #1: US Home Ownership Rate Is Plunging

On historical basis, home ownership rate in the US is in free fall. Take a look at the chart. I think it speaks for itself.  

homeowership-rate-investwithalex 

Issue #2: Real Estate Affordability Is Plunging

Take a look at the chart as it speaks for itself. The affordability index is in free fall as well. Most likely due to higher interest rates and rising prices. 

Housing Affordability Index

 

Issue #3: Interest Rates Are Going Up             

The trend has shifted up and the 10-year rate is up 100% over the last 12 months. I gave detailed interest rate analysis here. Please take a look here.

 

Issue #4: US Economy & The Stock Market Is About To Turn Down (Big Time)

Please read “The Long Awaited US Stock Market Decline Is Likely Here” as to why.

 

Issue #5: Who Is Buying All Of These Properties For Cash Today?

Chinese buyers, hedge funds, banks themselves, investors, speculators, etc…..  Who cares!!! Remember all those Japanese investors buying everything they could in California and Hawaii in the late 1980’s. I wonder how that turned out for them.

On a more serious note, notice that I didn’t say Average American Family. That is the only category that we should track if we want to accurately predict the future trend in the US Real Estate market. Every other category is irrelevant over the long run.  And guess what? They are not buying.  See the charts above. 

 

Issue #6: Bear Market In Real Estate (sucks people back in)

As I have said here before (US Real Estate At A Turning Point), this is how the bear market works. This is the stage #2 bounce, before the big decline (stage #3).  The bear market tends to suck people back in, offer them perceived safety and a high return before slamming the door, ripping their head off, drinking their blood and taking all of their money.  The US Real Estate market is topping in Stage #2 run up here. That is why you are seeing so many divergences. The market should turn down soon. Beware.  

 

FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE:

Real estate is not made of Gold.  There is a tremendous amount of land available in California, Florida and all over the US.  There is no housing shortage. As such, expect real estate to decline significantly in order to revert back to its natural inflation adjusted mean. It might take a few years, it might be different for various cities, but one way or another the market will get there.

BubbleBurst investwithalex

 

HOW FAR DOWN?

Let’s do very simple math for the San Diego market.  It doesn’t have to be exact for our purposes.

Setup:

  • San Diego Median Family Income: $61,500
  • As Per Various Financial Guidelines Families Shouldn’t Spend More Than 30% Of Their Income On Housing.  That means a $1,500/monthly payment.
  • Median Home Price in San Diego: $500,000 (pushing that level again as per Trulia.com)
  • Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage 4.72% (Rates as of 9/4/2013) 

With such fundamental input variables median house value should be $290,000 -OR – A 42% DECLINE     ($1,[email protected]%)

What if interest rates go to 7% over the next 5 years, which can easily happen? 

The fundamental value of the median house drops further to $225,000 -OR- A 55% DECLINE

Also, don’t forget that markets oftentimes overshoot to the bottom, just as they set blow off tops. In such a case I wouldn’t be surprised to see a median price of $150,000- 200K -OR- A 70%-60% DECLINE

You say impossible….. I say study financial markets. Nothing is impossible. 

Now, I understand and agree that there are various market forces at play that make the picture a lot more complicated. Interest rates, timing, mortgage finance, cash buyers, the FED, foreign buyers, speculation, location, supply/demand, etc….    However, fundamentals will always prevail over time. Everything else is just temporary bullshit.

 

ADVICE: 

Your house is not an investment. Don’t be confused. It is the place you live and raise your family. If you are happy with your house, have a fixed interest rate, can afford your monthly payments and don’t care if your house depreciates in value, I would stay put.

If you find yourself in a contrary situation……..I would consider various options. 

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GOLD

investwithalex gold

 

People keep asking me about Gold and other precious metals.

Short Answer:  I have no idea. I am too stupid to understand the metals in order to predict them.

Longer Answer: I have studied Gold for a while now and have heard every bullish and bearing argument for or against it. I understand inflation, deflation, safety and currency issues associated with precious metals. However,  I cannot put a complete analysis together in order to give you a legitimate answer.

Basically, precious metals are too complicated.  Some people see it as money, others as inflation/deflation hedge, then you have fundamental/industrial demands for the metals, then there are national reserves, etc….

All of those points are easy enough individually, but when you put them all together you get a lot of interference and noise without any clear direction. Perhaps it is easier for other people to understand, but it simply does not make sense for me.

I cannot see any fundamental reasons for owning gold.  Is it a hedge against inflation/deflation?  Not really. I would rather hold US Dollars in a deflationary environment and a portfolio of inflation protected stocks in an inflationary environment. Plus, the long term gold chart doesn’t look good from a technical stand point. It is either showing a sideways movement or a breakdown.

investwithalex gold chart

Can Gold and other precious metals appreciate significantly here? Sure, but they can also break down. Once again, I have no idea, nor do I find myself qualified to issue an appropriate opinion. 

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Cash Is King

Bloomberg Writes: Why Cash Costs the U.S. Economy Real Money

 Investwithalex_cash

The use of dollars and coins costs the U.S. economy at least $200 billion each year—roughly $1,739 per household—according to a new study from Tufts University. One reason: Americans waste an average of 28 minutes each month just getting to their cash, with part-timers, retirees, and African Americans likely to spend even more time accessing their money. The worst hit, not surprisingly, are low-income consumers, who are dinged with higher fees, along with the lost time.

For businesses, the biggest cost of cash comes from theft. Even if they can afford armored cars and guards to prevent outsiders from taking their cash, there’s still the risk that insiders will drain the coffers. Government, meanwhile, pays a price in lost tax revenue and the cost of actually making currency.

As technology continues to surge forward there is a considerable push from various interest groups to become a cashless society.  Articles such as the one above are clearly sponsored by the Banking Industry with their own agenda, but there is an important red flag here that you should be aware of.

Call me old fashioned, but I love cash. It’s a great feeling to hold a stack of crispy new $100 bills in your hand and smell them once in a while.  Just one second, I need to go do that…..

All joking aside, this is an important matter that can have real implications on your life.  As I have said before,  cash is king. It is the only thing that you will have control over if something does goes wrong. In the worst case scenario none of your stock holdings or bank database entries will mean anything. They will be worth ZERO.  Cash could be your insurance policy and as such I would suggest keeping a considerable amount of cash that is readily available to you.

Do not buy this nonsense that using cash has real economic cost. The real cost here is losing your freedom and being at the mercy of large financial institutions and/or governments. Remember Cyprus? It reminds me of a time when I tried to withdraw $125,000 in cash from my Bank of America account.  They looked at me and said “Sir, I am sorry, but we do not have that much cash available. It will take us a few days to get it”.

Fair enough, but I do not want to find myself in such a situation ever again. Therefore, I would highly recommend having a considerable amount of cash stashed away somewhere safe for your own good (preferably not in your mattress). It’s a great feeling. Trust me. Mine is buried somewhere in the Nevada desert. 

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Stock Market Update, Sept 10th 2013

Sept 10 2013 chart

The Dow is recovering nicely here, just as anticipated. As I have mentioned before the market was oversold and due for a bounce. I believe this bounce will take the rest of September to complete. 

What is interesting is that the market left a bunch of open holes (gap downs) on the way down around 15,500-15,400 range. After studying the market for many years, I have noticed something. The market doesn’t like these gaps. One way or another the market comes back to close the gap. Even if it takes years.

Other technical and timing works indicate that the market is likely to get into this 15,500 range by the end of September before reversing and heading down. As of right now I would still be in a waiting pattern, looking for various confirmation. There is no need to rush here. Stay patient. 

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Economic Lunacy

The Daily Ticker Writes: Krugman Overboard! Says Economic Policy a ‘Horrifying Failure’

economic crazy investwithalex

Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman argues in his new editorial that U.S. economic policy over the last five years has been “an astonishing, horrifying failure.” Krugman, a long-time critic of the Obama Administration’s stimulus efforts, writes that the U.S. government should have spent three times the amount of money it did to get the economy back on its feet:

“…if the U.S. government had actually been able and willing to do what textbook macroeconomics says it should have done — namely, make a big enough push for job creation to offset the effects of the financial crunch and the housing bust, postponing fiscal austerity and tax increases until the private sector was ready to take up the slack…we would be a richer nation, with a brighter future — not a nation where millions of discouraged Americans have probably dropped permanently out of the labor force, where millions of young Americans have probably seen their lifetime career prospects permanently damaged, where cuts in public investment have inflicted long-term damage on our infrastructure and our educational system.”

There you go. These are the idiots at the top of the US Economic Policy food chain.

“An astonishing, horrifying failure, the US Government should have spent 3 times the amount of money it did to get the economy back on track”

They are talking about an additional $3 Trillion in stimulus. WOW!!!. I am beyond speechless. I am not a big fan of either Bush or Obama administrations and what they did during the 2007-2009 meltdown.  In fact, I am a big proponent that they should have left the market alone and let a lot of those companies fail instead. That would have removed economic excesses out of the system a lot faster and we would now be in true economic recovery instead of this artificial credit induced one.

So, these Keynesian clowns believe that throwing more money at the problem would have fixed everything and brought prosperity to the US Economy?  I am starting to think that they don’t even understand basic math. Providing more stimulus here is equivalent to giving Lamar Odom a kilo of coke and saying “Go and shoot it all up at once. It will fix you right up.”   

With economic leadership like this, America has no chance of improving any time soon. A lot of economic pain is just around the corner. 

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FU64H2X4HQRH

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KING DOLLAR

invest with alex usd

All bow before king dollar. Those who know me can testify that I have been a dollar bull for a long time. See, I am bullish on something. 

In fact, I have been advocating for a long time that the US Dollar is one of the best and the most undervalued investments out there. While most people run around screaming inflation and predicting destruction of the US Dollar the reality is quite different.

Yes, the FED is printing or creating a lot of dollars out of thin air. However, those are not real dollars. They are creating credit which is a completely different animal. At the same time there aren’t that many real dollars out there (well, relative to the overall money supply …including credit). 

So, what happens when there is a credit crunch and people need real money to repay the loans? You have guessed it, the value of the dollar goes through the roof.

USD Chart 

Now, this has been an easy and risk free investment strategy I recommended to my parents over 13 years ago.  I simply told them to accumulate/save as many US Dollars as they can and invest them in short term  T-bills and a few other risk free financial instruments. They have and so far they have done very well.  How well?

US Dollar Accumulation & Risk Free Investments:  +67% compounded over the last 13 years.  

While over the same period of time…..

DOW:  +15%

S&P:  +10%

NASDAQ:  -28%

Not bad if you ask me.  Particularly considering the fact that there is absolutely no risk involved and they are not managing an active portfolio. Well, it’s so easy and stress free that they are not managing anything at all.  I will continue to maintain this position for my parents for at least another 3 years.  That is until 2016 stock market bottom and initiation of inflationary environment.

I recommend you do the same. The US Dollar Index looks good from both technical and fundamental perspective. While it doesn’t really matter if you live in the US, any index appreciation gives you that much more for your buck. 

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WARNING!!! Is The Philippine Economy/Stock Market About To Collapse?

Philippine Inquirer Writes: PH “different” from troubled Asean peers, say report

 

The Philippines, Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy, can differentiate itself from its regional peers that are grappling with slowing growth and deteriorating external balance sheets, based on a common theme cited by international researchers in the past few days.

Although election spending was a factor behind the better-than-expected 7.5-percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Philippines for the second quarter, a pace matched only by China, some of the reports cited some downside risks

“The local economy’s resilience in the face of external turbulence reinforces our view that the Philippines is somewhat differentiated from its peers not only by having a structural current-account surplus but also by having local growth drivers, mainly public spending and private investments, to lean on. The latter may be traced to local economic authorities’ ability to pursue accommodative policies given a benign inflation outlook and manageable public debt,” New York-based think tank Global Source said in an Aug. 30 commentary written by Filipino economists Romeo Bernardo and Marie-Christine Tang.

In a separate research, Credit Suisse said: “We think the Philippines offers the best macroeconomic prospects out of the Asean-4 economies,” referring to the four emerging markets of Southeast Asia that also included Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Read the rest of the article here

As of right now the Philippine economy is in a very dangerous situation. I say dangerous by simply relying on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEi) stock chart.  The chart looks horrific. It looks as if it is about to break down to the downside ………BIG TIME. 

From a purely technical perspective, if it breaks down below 5,700 level, the Philippine economy and the Philippine stock market is in huge trouble. There is no support of any kind until it reaches down to about 4,000 level.  From my experience,  I would put a chance of a breakdown here and a subsequent significant decline at about 80%.

philippines-stock-market

 Better chart here: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PCOMP:IND

What does all of this technical mambo jumbo means for average people. The stock market is a leading indicator. If the Philippine stock market breaks down as I anticipate above,  the Philippine economy will follow and slow down significantly.

The fundamental picture supports this thesis as well.  Due to an upcoming economic slowdown in the US, rising interest rates and a recent (substantial) move in the Philippine Peso, I would anticipate the Philippine Stock Market and the Philippine economy to break to the downside soon. Unfortunately, that would lead to either a significant slow down or even a recession in the country. 

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Chinese Revolution…..Coming Soon?

Reuters Writes: Ditch the stats: China retailers don’t buy signs of recovery

 

HONG KONG (Reuters) – If things are really starting to look up for China’s economy, as a recent spate of better-than-expected government data seems to suggest, nobody appears to have told its biggest retailers.

A Reuters review of first-half earnings showed that more than 20 Chinese companies selling everything from footwear to food were not convinced the economic slowdown had bottomed out, and neither were their traditionally thrifty customers.

“The reality behind the numbers is gloomier,” said leading footwear retailer Belle International Holdings Ltd as a raft of data, supported by government statements, indicated the world’s second largest economy may be stabilizing after two years of slumping growth.

“There are uncertainties in future prospects as the economy is struggling with a difficult transition involving structural rebalancing and revamping the growth model,” said Belle, which has a market value of $11.6 billion and manages more than 18,000 retail outlets across 360 Chinese cities.

“As a defensive reaction, consumers are becoming more inclined to save and less willing to spend,” it added.

Economists have long doubted the accuracy of official economic data and this skepticism has increased as China plots a course towards consumption-led growth. The official retail sales measure, for example, counts a sale from when an item is shipped, rather than when it is actually sold.

The latest data, however, supports retailers’ complaints.  Read the rest of the article here

Listen, Chinese story is fairly easy to understand. Most of Chinese economic growth over the last decade came from massive infrastructure and real estate misallocation.  I say misallocation because there are literally empty cities in China.  If you haven’t already please watch this excellent report by 60 Minutes Here.

Now it is too late. China is left with huge misallocation that cannot just be dismissed. They must collapse. As the US Market slows down and shifts into recessionary environment over the next few years, as European Union continues to drag its feet in its own dysfunctional economic disaster,  I would expect Chinese export based economy to slow down significantly.

The most important question here, is what happens to the Chinese government when property prices finally collapse in China and Chinese families lose all of their multi-generational savings (something that every Chinese believes is impossible).  Of course, as financial professionals we must always look at the other side of the trade when 99% believes otherwise.

I believe we are in for some fireworks in China and fairly soon.  Within the next 5 years.  In fact, I believe we are in for a revolution in China as the government losses control.  One thing is for certain, it will be exciting to watch. 

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The Most Important Financial Story No One Is Talking About

10 Year Note Chart

 

The chart above doesn’t look like much, but it is hugely important. It is the chart for a 10 Year Treasury Note and I cannot stress enough just how important it is. There are 3 things here. 

1. My timing work shows that what you are looking at is a multi-generational bottom in interest rates. It is unlikely that we see interest rates this low over the next 50-100 years. Stock market and interest rate history teaches us that much. 

2. While it doesn’t look like much, this benchmark interest rate moved from 1.43% in July of 2012 to about 2.80% today. That is a 100% increase in interest rates in just 12 months. That is a massive move by any measure and the largest of its kind in nearly 3 decades.    

3. The interest rates are just now starting their climb upwards. The trend has shifted and will continue upward for at least a few more decades. It will not be a straight line move and it will not be fast, but do anticipate a gradual increase from this point on. My timing work shows that these rates should accelerate to the upside after 2016 due to upcoming inflation. 

What does it all mean? In simple terms, this will have a huge negative impact on the overall US and Global economy, it will destroy the US housing bubble once and for all, it will suck down emerging markets (which is already happening). 

Why? Because the all of the above mentioned markets rely purely on extremely cheap finance and high liquidity. Once you take that away, the markets and the overall economy will start going down fast.

What should you do? This is what I would do as of today. 

  • Start liquidating your stock market portfolio. You can start buying back at much cheaper prices at 2016 bottom.
  • Lock in any loans you have (mortgage, business, personal) at current rates. 
  • Sell all of your real estate holdings if it makes financial sense and satisfies all of your lifestyle choices. Real estate will get completely crushed over the next 10 years.
  • Accumulate cash and keep it safe in short term treasury(1-6 month maturity). Keep rolling it over as interest rates increase.  When the next bottom in the stock market shows up (in 2016)….Go All In. 

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