Even though Gold has been doing quite well over the last few weeks/months, the long-term bottom is not yet in. As a result, my partner Matt Demeter is trying something incredibly unique in this market. He is putting his money where his mouth is.

 

 

Dear Fellow Investor,

I’m Matt Demeter of Demeter Research.  I take pride in making ultra-precise calls in macro markets.  Using the mathematical symmetry found in all market patterns, my methods allow me to determine the precise points where bull and bear markets terminate, and my track record proves it.

During the precious metals bear market of the past four years, I have become increasingly frustrated with the fundamental gurus and newsletter writers who have no concrete idea of where gold will make its final bear market bottom but routinely insist each new short-term low is the final low because gold is “too cheap and couldn’t possibly go lower.”

People actually pay for this horribly imprecise and unprofitable information.  So I have decided to do something novel.  I will share with you the exact price at which gold will bottom and if I’m wrong, you pay nothing.  To me, that’s the only fair way to do business.

If you’d like to learn more about Demeter Research’s Gold Bottom Call, please click here.

5/2/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 116 points (+0.66%) and the Nasdaq up 42 points (+0.88%). 

If you participate in financial markets the interview below is a MUST watch. Not only does Jim Rogers talks about a ton of outstanding investment ideas, what the future holds, politics and macroeconomic data, for the first time he acknowledges that war will be the likely outcome of today’s macroeconomic/financial imbalances. Something that I have been talking about on this blog for over two years.  I am just glad that our views and financial analysis match to the tune of 95-99%. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 2nd, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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 4/29/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 57 points (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq down 30 points (-0.62%)  

Well, at least for the time being it appears that way. The stock market finds itself in an overvaluation bubble while earnings and forward guidance is falling short….way short. That is not a good sign. At the same time, the stock market tends to surprise most people most of the time.

I will let you decide, but consider the following……(click on links below to see the charts).

• The Bear Market Rally Is Just ‘Smoke And Mirrors’

Note the disastrous chart of the bear market in the junk bond ETF (HYG) (black line). As I have always said, the credit markets give the early warnings. The bounce since February so far is nothing but a bear market rally based on the rise in oil prices.

Now, I know that most bulls would disagree, but that’s what makes the market. With that in mind, understand, the market hasn’t taken out any primary resistance levels either, nor has it put in higher highs to confirm a bullish breakout. At this point both sides can claim victory.

• The market’s $1 trillion bubble is unprecedented

As we have noted in the past, the lowest-rated junk bonds may have inflated a $1 trillion bubble at the bottom of the debt market. The thing is, it never should have gotten that way.

We have been aware of this problem for over a year now. With the likes of Carl Icahn and Jim Rogers expecting a collapse. You should as well and that in itself doesn’t bode well for the overall stock market.

• There’s one constant in the stock market going all the way back to the early 1800s

Over the past 90 years or so the market has been in a bear market almost a fourth of the time. Half of the time you’re down 5% or worse. It’s difficult to appreciate this fact when looking at a long-term log scale stock chart that seems to only go up and to the right. This is why stocks are constantly playing mind games with us. They generally go up but not every day, week, month or year.

Stunning….isn’t it? Most investors today believe that the market only goes up. I have disproved that on this blog many times before. For instance, between 1790 -1860 (70 years) and 1899 -1949 (50 years) the stock market showed ZERO inflation adjusted appreciation. That is a long time to wait. And with Shiller’s Adjusted P/E Ratio at 26 – 3rd highest valuation level in history, that doesn’t bode well for the overall stock market and any future gains.

But wait, there’s more….

• 2 clear signs the stock market ‘endgame’ is approaching

In a note to clients on Friday, UBS strategist Julian Emanuel thinks a few signs point to the “endgame” for stocks coming into view.

I don’t get this. Everyone assumes that we are still in a bull market with higher highs just around the corner. I wrote about it last night. What Bull Market Is Everyone Talking About? Yet, no one has stopped to consider that a long-term top might already be behind us.

And finally….

• Icahn: Markets will have ‘a day of reckoning’

“I do believe in general that there will be a day of reckoning unless we get fiscal stimulus,” he said, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s maintaining low interest rates, and potentially creating “tremendous bubbles.”

I would definitely listen to what Mr. Icahn had to say during his interview.

Here is the bottom line. We find ourselves in a very complex market environment where both bulls and bears can claim a victory of sorts.  At least for the time being. That will not last. In fact, our timing and mathematical works shows an upcoming move that will shock most investors. If you would like to find out what that move is, please Click Here. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 29th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.

Report Date: April 24th, 2016  (Including COT Reports). 

For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here 

4/28/2016 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 211 points (-1.17%) and the Nasdaq down 58 points (-1.19%)

Quite often stock market insanity index (Symbol: NUTS)  tops out at the same time the stock market does. Here is just a small sample from today to get your blood boiling….

• The bull market is about to set a major milestone

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 28th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Open any financial media outlet today and you will find Facebook (FB) being praised. Just as Apple was at its top exactly a year ago. For instance, Cramer: Facebook’s most picture-perfect quarter ever for tech

Nonsense. The reality is, Facebook (FB) is massively overpriced and in a speculative bubble. Regardless of its guidance beating performance. Now, my advice is simple. Wait for today’s gap higher or run higher to complete (over the next few days/weeks) and for the stock to reverse. When a technical reversal confirmation arrives, go short. Today’s gap higher will be closed and Facebook’s stock will eventually push lower…..much lower.

Now, I have to admit something. I hate Facebook with passion. First, it is a cesspool of pointless narcissistic activity. Not for everyone, but the % is high enough. But, I have learned a long time ago not to make “emotional” investment decision. That is why it warms my heart to see Facebook (FB) at such dizzying valuation levels.

Here is why I believe short sellers  should drool all over Facebook (FB)

When Twitter (TWTR) was selling at $48, I wrote this….Why Twitter (TWTR) Should Go On Your “Stocks To Short” List  Less than a year later it is trading 60% lower. With that in mind, I continue to maintain that the worst is yet to come for the company. By the time upcoming bear market ends, Twitter should be below $10.

With that in mind, I believe Facebook (FB) presents us with even a better shorting opportunity. In fact, I continue to believe that Facebook is one of the best shorts out there.

And while most investors today will laugh at me when I suggest that Facebook (FB) will see $20 a share over the next 3 years, I will laugh back when it does. I promise. Here is why……

• As discussed over the last few days, Facebook is massively overpriced. At its $320 Billion market cap, the company is now worth more than GE. At 10th the revenue base and a P/E of 95. I guarantee you, investors in Facebook today will look back in 2-3 years and wonder “What the hell were we thinking?”.
• I am beginning to notice quite a bit of fraudulent activity on Facebook when it comes to likes, promotions, paid advertising, etc… That is firsthand knowledge, but you can Google the same and do your own research. That suggests the Facebook is running out of growth and its multiple is not justified. By a long shot. I wrote about it here Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity
• See those massive gaps all the way down to $20 a share? Yep, they will have to be closed at some point.
• We are on a verge of a multi-year substantial bear market. Click Here. When such bear markets develop, if past is any history, such overvalued and over hyped stocks tend to lose 80-90% of their value. Just as the gaps above suggest. I don’t know why this time would be any different.
• Short interest is low.

Finally, even at $20 a share, Facebook will be extremely overpriced. In other words, I just gave you a potential 80% gainer, but its up to you what you do with it. As always, TIMING is the key here. With that said, if you are willing to hold this stock short over the next two years while riding out all of the ups and downs, your gains on the short side should be significant

4/27/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 53 points (+0.29%) and the Nasdaq down 25 points (-0.51%)

Well,  it appears the FED theory I first outlined on this blog over six months ago, a theory summarized in this morning’s blog post, is dead on. We did see a more hawkish statement, meaning, the FED is indeed trying to maintain the market within a certain range. Something they will ultimately fail at.

But enough about me. Let’s see what some other folks out there think…..

• ‘Idiotic’ Fed Has Given Up on Rate Hikes

“That didn’t work very well. The stock market crashed and the credit markets were a disaster,” Gundlach says. “The markets have humiliated the Fed into abandoning their pretty idiotic forecast.”

Yes, I couldn’t agree more.

• Central bankers will destroy the ‘enfeebled’ global economy and plunge the world into chaos

Central banks across the globe are currently battling to stimulate inflation and growth by using near- and even sub-zero interest rates, and huge programmes of quantitative easing. So far nothing seems to be the silver bullet for growth, with negative interest rates in particular seen as something of a failure. Edwards argues that as well as failing to help normal people, monetary policy is making the rich richer, stirring anger and resentment among normal people.

Dead on.

• The Fed’s Inflation Fail

Thus, we see widespread signs of a decline in long-term inflation expectations. We know the potential consequences from the experience of Japan, which has suffered more than one “lost decade” of extremely low inflation and disappointing growth. If it’s not remedied, interest rates and inflation will remain low, and the Fed’s ability to buffer the economy against adverse shocks to prices and employment will remain greatly restricted.

This is fairly easy. Massive amounts of debt always lead to deflation. Only outright monetization can spark inflation now.

• Fed’s calling in the ‘helicopter money,’ — buy bonds now

I wouldn’t be so eager to buy bonds here. Even if the FED downright forgoes further interest rate increases, goes negative and/or introduces another round of QE, there is no guarantee that bonds will react in a way most people think. I can make a powerful argument that they will do just the opposite.

Here is the bottom line. No matter how you twist this equation, we are in a massive speculative bubble. With stocks selling at 3rd highest valuation level in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top. All while the FED literally out of tools to fight the next recession. 

I can tell you this. The above setup is does not bode well for the overall market.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 27th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.comv

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For over a year I have maintained that the FED will not raise interest rates in any meaningful way. For instance, Why The FED Will NOT Be Raising Rates Next Year

With that in mind, something interesting became apparent late last year. The FED’s End Game Is Finally Unveiled.

Allow me to summarize: The FED is stuck somewhere between massive deflationary pressures and asset bubbles (in most markets).  As a result, they unable to raise interest rates nor stimulate further. Interest rates are already at ZERO and additional QE might not work.

That is forcing the FED to use all tools necessary, mostly their tongues at this stage, to keep the market within a certain range. So, if the market sells-off, as it did in August and January, the FED will go out of their way in being more “dovish”. Preventing a collapse and pushing stocks higher.

But they don’t want the market too high. Should the market accelerate higher from this point on, they will be dealing with a bubble and subsequent collapse. And as my theory goes, the second the market recovers, as is the case today, the FED will become more “hawkish”. Again, to maintain the market within a certain trading range. (Now, don’t ask me what the purpose of the above exercise is – I have no idea. The eventual decline/collapse is now a certainty).

And that makes today incredibly important. Should the FED issue a more “hawkish” statement, I believe the theory above will be proven  without a shadow of a doubt. Wait and see.

4/26/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 12 points (+0.07%) and the Nasdaq down 7 points (-0.15%)

Apple (AAPL) will report earnings shortly. And while I might look foolish here after the fact, I am sticking to my overall long-term Apple forecast. Published on this site about a year ago. On May 21st, 2015 to be exact. Please see it below.

Here is another interesting fact. Take a look at this nice year long wedge developing in AAPL. As with anything, this can be interpreted in one of two ways. Apple’s stock prices is either getting ready to break out or collapse to the tune of 20-40%.

Impossible?….Not so fast.

I would imagine the overall market would follow Apple or vice verse. That is to say, should Apple breakout, we might be in for another move higher. Yet, should a breakdown occur, you might want to watch out below (bear market).

Previous Forecast: 

The original post was published on May 21st, when Apple’s (AAPL) stock price was putting in an important all time high (double top). At that time I have suggested that smart money was distributing the stock. Apple’s stock price is down over 10% since then.

It appears nothing has changed. If anything, big guys are trying to unload at a faster pace. This Goldman Sachs analysis was released just a few days ago.  Apple’s shares are going to soar 43% Sure, and I am nominated for a Nobel Prize in literature.

That is to say, don’t be a pawn in their game. My view on Apple hasn’t changed. 

A few weeks ago Apple (AAPL) has reported yet another great quarter. Yet, despite the outperformance, Apple’s stock price is barely up. So much so that most investors, market pundits and money managers are dumbfounded by company’s recent decline.  After all, it was not supposed to happen. Apple is the best performing company in the world (which is technically true) with like a zillion dollars in cash on their balance sheet.

What gives? I will simply repeat here what I first said on May 21st. When AAPL was putting in its top.

May 21st Update: Alert: Smart Money Is Trying To Distribute Apple (AAPL) To Fools

I firmly believe that the overall market and Apple (AAPL) will crack at the same time. Hence, overwhelmingly bullish coverage of the company and recent analyst upgrades should cause some concern. For instance…..

• CARL ICAHN: Apple is worth $240 per share
• Morgan Stanley says Apple shares could rise 50%
• Here’s the top stock pick from each of 50 biggest hedge funds – Quite a few of these hedge funds have a massive long Apple position.

There is another name for all of the above. Distribution. The smart money is trying to unload their massive positions to unsuspecting retail investors in an illiquid market. A game that is as old as the stock market itself.

Listen, I don’t have anything against Apple. It is one of the best performing companies out there. Yes, it is overvalued, but its valuation is not as bad as some of the junk floating in the market today.

I am merely pointing out that retail investors shouldn’t be sucked into a game that they cannot win. Make no mistake, once Icahn, Morgan Stanley and the rest of the big guys unload their long positions (if they are smart), Apple’s stock will fall like a brick. Just as the market will. That is to say, the opportunity with AAPL might be on the short side of the trade, not the long.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 26th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!