The real question is, why would you want to be?

Most human beings live in the state of constant desire. And it doesn’t really matter what the object of that desire is. It can be power, money, sex, food and so on and so forth. What’s worse, even if one desire is satisfied, human mind is never contented. If will immediately create the next desire and outright misery for the underlying individual.

That is why most people are never happy, rich or poor, living in the hell of their own making. In that regard, living forever would literally translate to living in perpetual hell described in the Bible. Higher levels of consciousness must be obtained first.

For those of you interested in the subject matter, consider the following

Mind Transfer To A Computer Could Be Possible By 2050. Immortality May Be Within Reach

The functions of mind that we experience are originally implemented through neurobiological mechanisms, the neural circuitry of our brains. If the same functions are implemented in a different operating substrate, populated with parameters and operating such that they produce the same results as they would in the brain, then that mind has become substrate-independent. It is a substrate-independent mind (SIM) by being able to function in different operating substrates. The popular term ‘mind uploading’ can refer to the process of transfer, moving a specific substrate-independent mind from one operating substrate (e.g., the biological brain) to another. 

There are a lot of people selling the idea that you can mimic the brain with a computer. You could have all the computer chips ever in the world and you won’t create a consciousness. – Miguel Nicolelis

Fascinating stuff!!!

4/6/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 113 points (+0.64%) and the Nasdaq up 77 points (+1.59%) 

According to the bulls, this bull market is just starting. Consider the following.

• The $1 trillion short underlying U.S. stocks’ spring awakening

Amid its biggest about-face in nine decades, a funny thing has happened in the U.S. stock market, where rather than loosen their grip bears have grown ever-more impassioned. They’ve sent short interest to an eight-year high and above $1 trillion, by one analyst’s math. Position reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show mutual fund managers are more skeptical now than any time since at least 2010.

Let’s not forget a substantial commercial VIX long position (COT Report) that can or should be grouped into this. The above can be interpreted in one of two ways. Sure, it can be argued that the metric above is extremely bullish and that such a high short-interest can provide the jet fuel needed to proper the market to new all time highs.

Yet, there is another interpretation that no one one is talking about. And while I can’t prove it, I believe quite a few investors/managers are looking at today’s market with their jaw wide open. They have never seen such a blatant manipulation by the FED and such wide divergences between economic/earnings reality and today’s bubble valuations. That is to say, if there has ever been a “brain dead” ideal market short setup, we are witnessing it today. And from that angle, record short interest makes sense.

• TOM LEE: Stocks will hit all-time highs by the summer

Correct me if I am wrong, but Tom Lee has been “extremely” bullish over the last two years. Yet, during that time the NYSE (largest index by capitalization) is down close to 10%. Still down close to 10% and is in a clear bear market pattern. Plus, he was “extremely” bullish prior to August and January sell-offs.

Nevertheless, let’s take his claim that we just had a “March of 2009” bottom event in February seriously and consider his bullish points.

His Comment: As to why, it is not entirely explainable but in retrospect, the period from August 2015 to February 2016, was a “bear market” even though the S&P 500 did not statistically fall 20%. We realize many investors look to the remainder of 2016 with apprehension, however, we believe equity markets are poised to make new highs in coming months. the stock market has had its “March 2009” moment.

My Comment: My Dow charts go back to May 19th, 1790. Not in the single instance do I recall a full on bear market lasting just six months. To somehow link up recent January’s sell-off to March 2009 bottom is irresponsible at best. It makes no sense. It would be similar to comparing apples to donkeys. Not only in terms of % decline, how long it took and where we are in the cyclical composition of the market, but from the perspective of even calling this a bear market.

I believe the confusion stems from trying to figure out where we are in the overall composition of the market. As outlined in my previous articles, quite a few bulls assume that we have started a new bull market from 2009 lows. And in a sense they are correct. We will not go below that low. Yet, they are wrong about where we are today. We are still within the confines of a 2000-2017 secular bear market. Bear markets that typically end with a 2-3 year declines.

His Comment: First, he anticipates a recovery in sales and earnings, as the adverse effect of the strong dollar on corporate earnings reduces.The dollar’s 10% jump last year subtracted about $93 billion, or $10 a share, from S&P 500 company earnings, he calculates. But more companies should report sales gains this year as the dollar’s drag fades.

My Comment: And I anticipate that I will win a lottery tomorrow. Two issues here or two deadly assumptions. First, why would earnings recover? The Fed liquidity party is over and there no growth drivers out there. Further and as outlined on this blog before, GAAP earnings are down 18% from just a year ago and there is nothing to suggest that they will stage a miraculous recovery. Second, he assumes the USD will continue its decline. That’s a big assumption. What if the dollar breaks above recent high – no matter what Janet Yellen does? Quite a few very smart investors think the dollar will push higher. That is to say, there a lot of “IFs” in his analysis

His Comment:  Lee says, the imbalance between oil supply and demand keeps getting closer to equilibrium every month. Later this month, a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members could produce an agreement on output cuts, though Saudi Arabia has threatened to abstain unless Iran gets on board.

My Comment: Seriously? Some of the best oil traders in the world are being fooled by the recent moves in the oil market, but don’t worry, Mr. Lee knows exactly what the oil or Saudi Arabia or Iran or Russia will do going forward. His view is sheer nonsense.

His Comment: Lee notes the high levels of short interest in stocks, or investors’ bets against their advance. He says the level of short interest — 4.3% of float — tops the levels seen in March 2009 when stocks bottomed.

My Comment: I addressed that above. This is just as bearish as it is bullish.

His Comment: Lee also expects the US consumer to remain a “bright spot” in the economy.

My Comment: Again…..based on what? See the first two comments.

With that in mind, since Mr. Lee is so confident in his analysis and view, I am sure his own personal portfolio is loaded with short-term (summer) call options. Perhaps he can retire as soon as his high probability forecast comes to fruition.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 6th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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4/5/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 133 points (-0.75%) and the Nasdaq down 48 points (-0.98%)

My partner Matt Demeter is trying something incredibly unique. Particularly, if you follow the Gold market. He is putting his money where his mouth is.

Dear Fellow Investor,

I’m Matt Demeter of Demeter Research.  I take pride in making ultra-precise calls in macro markets.  Using the mathematical symmetry found in all market patterns, my methods allow me to determine the precise points where bull and bear markets terminate, and my track record proves it.

During the precious metals bear market of the past four years, I have become increasingly frustrated with the fundamental gurus and newsletter writers who have no concrete idea of where gold will make its final bear market bottom but routinely insist each new short-term low is the final low because gold is “too cheap and couldn’t possibly go lower.”

People actually pay for this horribly imprecise and unprofitable information.  So I have decided to do something novel.  I will share with you the exact price at which gold will bottom and if I’m wrong, you pay nothing.  To me, that’s the only fair way to do business.

If you’d like to learn more about Demeter Research’s Gold Bottom Call, please click here.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 5th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Over the last few years I have maintained that Western Governments and Western Media are hell bent on starting a war with Russia. Whatever their reasons might be.

Nowhere was this more evident than this week’s now infamous “Panama Leak”. Even though Mr. Putin’s name did not appear once in the documents above, directly or indirectly, quite a few major media outlets went ahead with directly linking Mr. Putin to their sensational story.

Here is a good summary: Panama leak reveals more about Western journalism than Vladimir Putin

Not to defend President Putin, but this is blatant propaganda at its worse. Remember, before a war can be fought, the other side MUST be demonized. That is exactly what is happening here.

In other words, things continue to progress exactly as I first outlined in my report/book a few years ago The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why . And should Hillary Clinton win the general election, things will only accelerate.

In the meantime, the fools at the mainstream media outlets continue to wonder

Here’s who would win if Russia, China, and America all went to war right now

I made a stunning prediction in my book two years ago. That Russia and China will form a military alliance to counterbalance NATO. That should happen over the next few 5-10 years as per my timeline. That is to say, China/Russia will fight against the US and their increasingly marginalized puppets in Europe.

But since the foolish warmongers in the media insist, I’ll tell them who will come out ahead in all of this. Cockroaches.

4/4/2016- A negative day with the Dow Jones down 56 points (-0.31%) and the Nasdaq down 23 points (-0.46%) 

At the present moment the bulls are having a good laugh at the expense of the bears. After all, the rally off of January/February lows has retraced most of the decline, many believe that Janet Yellen will not let the market fall and according to some, new all time highs are just around the corner.

Perhaps. Yet, before you jump on the bullish bandwagon, consider the following bearish divergences.

• The $90 Billion Default Flood -Carl Icahn, Jim Rogers and many others have been talking about this for a few months. Pay attention as they are 100% correct.
• The death cross is saying to stay away from U.S. stocks – A good technical data point to consider.
• The yield curve is telling us something – The yield curve continues to flatten. That typically signals recession ahead. No matter what Janet Yellen says.
• This Indicator Suggests A Bear Market Is Now Underway And It’s Likely To Be A Painful One – Another good data point to consider.
• Trump’s prediction of ‘massive recession’ puzzles economists Now, don’t forget, most economist are wrong most of the time and they certainly never “see” the recession coming. Plus, who would you rather listen to….a bean counter or a successful businessman.
• Smart Money Flunks Out as $2 Billion of VIX Bets Come – Fair enough, but we should consider latest COT reports. Commercial interest have increased their VIX net long position to 3X their short. That typically happens prior to large declines.
• Earnings will decide the stock market’s fate – Bullseye.

Listen, most of the rally (at least 50%) off of January/February lows has been caused by intentional and coordinated efforts of world central bankers.  Central Bank Mafia Goes All In…Stocks Rally…A Little  And while most bulls see this as a licence to keep the party going, I do not share in their enthusiasm.

Instead of cheering the next phase of this supposed liquidity party, bulls should ask themselves the following question……if the Economy is so great why is Janet Yellen terrified of raising interest rates by a laughable 25bps?

I think you know the answer to that question. At the end of the day, it is all about earnings and current valuation levels. Something we have covered on this blog extensively.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 4th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

4/1/2016- A positive day with the Dow Jones up 108 points (+0.61%) and the Nasdaq up 44 points (+0.92%) 

As I have outlined here over the last few days, open any financial media outlet today and you will surely find a number of “The Bear Market Is Over, Stocks Are About To Fly” type of an analyses. Just the opposite of what we saw at February 10th bottom. A view outlined here How Financial Media Sentiment Can Help You Time The Market

Yet, the fundamentals haven’t changed. The overall stock market is massively overpriced. Plus, the market hasn’t yet confirmed any sort of a technical breakout. Most central bankers have gone all in and earnings are expected to decelerate. In other words, I would suggest that it might be too soon to celebrate.

Instead, consider the following analysis.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years holds. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

• 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

• 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.

• 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.

• 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.

• 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.

• 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

• 1914 -1920: Bull Market
• 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
• 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
• 1937-1942: Bear Market
• 1966-1971: Bear Market
• 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
• 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
• 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
• 2009-2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, it is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014. Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 1st, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why A Bear Market Of 2015-2017 Is Unavoidable Google