3/31/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 31 points (-0.18%) and the Nasdaq up 0 points (+0.01%) 

What a difference a few weeks make. On February 10th, just a few hours prior to a February 11th bottom, I brought the following matter to your attention. Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long?

At that time I suggested that everyone was extremely bearish, with not a single bullish data point to be found. Here is just a small sample of articles from that day alone.

• The U.S. May Be Even More Broke than You Think
• Shock slump across European industry bodes ill for 2016
• The head of trading at Morgan Stanley just confirmed Wall Street’s worst fear
• David Stockman: Markets Going to Be Mauled by Bear
• JP MORGAN STRATEGIST: Central banks tried to control the world … and failed miserably
• Companies lose billions buying back their own stock
• Cramer: Extreme valuations point to a recession

Now, flip the above headlines on their heads and you get a fairly accurate representation of where we are today. Let’s see what is trending out there today…..

• Tom Lee: Why I expect new stock records
• Why a volatile Q1 can be bullish news
• Get ready for this market to take flight thanks to tech stocks
• Cautious Yellen pushes back on Fed officials eyeing hike
• Trader: Listen to Yellen, ignore fundamentals
• ‘Dollar will fall faster than US stocks rise’

So, let’s review. The market rallies and all of a sudden Janet Yellen goes from zero to hero while all economic and financial imbalances that were so prevalent just a few weeks ago disappear into thin air???

Sheer nonsense…..all of it.

As I outlined in last night’s update (The Fundamental Shift That Did Not Happen), the fundamental picture hasn’t changed. If anything, it continues to deteriorate.

As a result, we should come to a simple conclusion. Financial media sentiment is nothing but a reflection of the market’s underlying state of being at any given moment. It shouldn’t be taken at its face value, but rather, as a TIMING tool.

When we see excessive bearishness, as was the case on February 10th, some sort of a bounce is just around the corner. And when the pendulum swings the other way, as is the case today, it is time to be cautious……very cautious.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 31st, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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My best short idea remains Facebook (FB). In late January I told you to get ready to short Facebook shortly after it opened up a massive gap right after its earnings report. The stock later came down, but missed closing the gap by a few dollars.

Since then the stock has recovered and is still sitting near its all time highs Providing aggressive investors with a wonderful entry point on the short side. In short, my analysis remains exactly the same.

Previous Analysis:  

Let me tell you a quick story first. As most indices pushed to their respective all time highs in April and May of 2015, I was building a heavy short position. Most investors thought I was crazy. Even perma bears like Marc Faber were throwing in the towel at the time, suggesting the markets might never go down again due to the FED’s intervention.

At one point I got so excited that I published this Why Short Sellers Should Be Thanking GOD At least one of my readers didn’t have a sense of humor, sending me a few choice words in return.

Nevertheless, it was a great call. The higher the market pushed the better of an opportunity it was to short.

I feel the same way about the Facebook (FB) today. I continue to maintain that this is one of the best short opportunities out there. And the higher the stock goes…. the better. I have outlined my reasoning for shorting Facebook (FB) here What You Ought To Know About Shorting Facebook & Getting Rich

And with Thursday’s massive $10 gap higher, it’s nearly a certainty that Facebook will have to close this gap and push below $90 a share. Perhaps on the way to another massive gap it left behind. At $20 a share.

Now,  the only remaining question is WHEN? If you are long-term investor, willing to ride this short position out, anytime would be a good opportunity. If you want more exact timing, when the market completes today’s bounce and reverses again. If you would like to know when that happens, please Click Here. 

Facebook Shorts Should Thank Their Lucky Stars Google

At least for the time being the bulls are celebrating Janet Yellen’s “dovish” stance. Well, maybe they shouldn’t. At the end of the day the FED has nothing left in its arsenal. Just a bunch of empty words to propel our economy into financial abyss.

Negative interest rates, QE, currency wars, helicopter money, banning cash and Ferrari’s for everyone…….don’t make it laugh. He is a good summary on why none of that will work.

Central banks will never admit they’ve run out of ammunition, but they have

It is no good just telling people you have plenty of ammunition left in your arsenal. At a certain point, you actually need to say what it is, and explain how it will work.

And if you can’t? It might be better to say that central banks have done what is possible to stimulate their economies, and that it is now up to governments to do their bit, either with expansionary fiscal policy, or structural reforms, to make their economies more competitive. Sooner or later, they will work that out for themselves anyway — and they won’t thank you for lying to them.

I couldn’t agree more. Here is what the FED really did, at least in terms of today’s capital markets. The FED created a massive liquidity based valuation bubble and then proceeded to assure investors that everything will be fine. No matter the cost. A promise that they cannot possibly keep.

In other words, corporate earnings and the economy are decelerating at a fast clip while stocks remain incredibly expensive. It appears a bull trap of epic proportions has been put in place. Thanks Janet.

3/28/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 98 points (+0.56%) and the Nasdaq up 80 points (+1.67%). 

As is evident from today’s market action, most market participants are obsessed with what the Fed will or will not do and/or what Janet Yellen has to say. Yet, they are missing the big picture.

Before we get to that, here is just a quick look at how crazy today’s environment is.

• YELLEN: The Fed is in no rush to raise rates
• Gundlach says April rate hike ‘inconceivable’ after lower GDP forecasts
• Another U.S. rate hike may be around corner: Fed’s Bullard
• Fed’s Williams urges U.S. central bank to stay on track with rate rises
• Fed Chair Yellen has a mini revolt on her hands

So, none of the above should come as a surprise to the readers of this blog. I have been arguing for close to a year that the FED will not raise interest rates in any meaningful way. Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates

Why? 

They cannot. Even a 100 bps hike here would send the US Economy into a tailspin. Plus, the FED is now entirely market dependent, not data dependent. They’ve admitted that much in their last policy statement. Finally, they want inflation and a weaker USD, and that requires loose monetary policy.

With that said, I continue to maintain that most investors are missing the big picture here. Sure, these “Dovish” statements cause market rallies, buy they are becoming increasingly insignificant. The first problem has to do with the chart below. As it clearly shows, we are basically in a massive overvaluation bubble.

But the bigger issue here has to do with the fact that the FED is out of tools. With the US/Global Economy slowing down, there is very little they can do with interest rates at zero.

In other words, Central Bank Mafia Goes All In…Stocks Rally…A Little

Now what?

Do you really think the stock market can generate a sustained rally here given the fact that stocks are incredibly expensive, the FED has no stimulus tools left and the global economy is rolling over into a recessionary environment? If you do, you are clearly seeing something that I do not.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 29th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

3/24/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 13 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.10%).

As we push into the long weekend, the market is as complex as ever. From a bearish standpoint the market is extremely overbought, at least short-term. Plus, the rally off of January/February bottom has most of the trademarks of a bear market rally.

On the flip side, bulls have quite a few things going in their favor. For one, overall investor sentiment remains bearish. Open any financial media terminal and you will find it full of “Bear Market” or “Market Crash” articles. Further, no one seems to believe this rally, with quite a few big investment banks recently coming out with an actual sell recommendation.

Can it be that easy?

Let’s skip the philosophical discussion and go straight to some important charts.

Chart #1: Hey everyone, look at all of those gaps. If you think the market won’t come back to close them, sooner or later, you are living in a fantasy land.

Chart #2: Oldie but goodie. Again, overall earnings/economy are slowing down while Shiller’s adjusted S&P ratio is at its 3rd highest level in history. And on par with 2007. Investors have paid more for stocks on two other occasions. In 1929 and 2000. But, unlike yours truly, most bulls don’t mind paying the same premium today.

Chart #3: NYSE (largest index by capitalization) is in a clear bear market. Despite the recent rally.

Chart #4: The USD is refusing to sell-off. Despite the FED’s super duper “Dovish Tone”.

Chart #5: Oh, in case you forgot, inflation adjusted S&P hasn’t gone anywhere in 16 years.

Chart #6: Risk assets that would typically lead a bull market rally are not confirming. Just take a look at this Russell 2000 chart. Plus, the previous market leader Biotech (IBB) is refusing to cooperate as well. These are just a few. There are many other.  New Bull market??? Yeah, sure…..to infinity and beyond.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 23rd, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

I love science and mathematics. Yet, once you start digging deeper you soon come to a realization that our physical 3-dimensional reality doesn’t make sense. So much so that what is available to our human senses is just a small fraction of our true reality. In other words, human existence is nothing more than an advanced computer simulation. Leading physicists across the globe are starting to come to the same realization.

There Is Growing Evidence that Our Universe Is a Giant Hologram

What does any of this have to do with the stock market?

Everything. Just as our human reality is nothing more than a shadow of higher dimensions, the 2-dimensional chart we all follow is just a shadow representation of true market moves. Here is how the stock market really works.

The markets being, at minimum, a 3-Dimensional phenomena, exactly like a large molecule rotating in space, in and out of the Z plane, with DNA coding sequences governing the entire process. Without understanding that the market is 3-D, twisting like a plant governed by the phyllotactic laws of dual number series and harmonic composition and decomposition, all measurements taken on a 2-D chart become misleading.

Mind blowing. By the way, human beings have the ability to jump to this higher dimension of reality through extensive meditation. Most traditions around the world call this “enlightenment”. In scientific terms, it is identical to electrons jumping between quantum levels. Once enough energy is accumulated within the human mind/body structure (through meditation), this quantum jump is automatically made.

If Our Entire Universe Is Holographic, What About The Stock Market? Google