3/16/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 78 points (+0.45%) and the Nasdaq up 35 points (+0.75%) 

Well, the FED has chickened out once again. That shouldn’t come as a surprise.

I will simply repeat what I have said here 8 months ago. And since that forecast appears to be dead on, there is no need to change anything. 

Here is the original from August of 2015.  Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates

I am 75% confident that the FED will not raise interest rates at all and 100% confident that they will not raise it in any meaningful way. What is meaningful? Even 8 separate hikes at 25 bps each would be laughable here.  And while anything above that will matter, I am extremely confident that we will not even get close to that over the next 2-5 years.

Here is why…….

• China has launched an official currency war by devaluing the Yuan 6 times (thus far) over the last few months. Japan is trying to do the same and the EU is now implementing further easing and QE. In this ocean of devaluation, the US cannot afford to have a strong currency.
• Plus, the US Economy is rolling over into a recession. Some of today’s official numbers are starting to reflect that.
• We are on the verge of a massive down leg in our equity markets. At least based on my mathematical and timing work. The stock market is extremely overpriced.
• Commodities have collapsed.
• Deflationary forces are reappearing throughout the economy.
• Etc….

As I have mentioned before, this is the worst case scenario for the FED. They are already TOO LATE. Now they are stuck in a situation where our economy and capital markets collapse while they are rendered powerless. As soon as other investors realize that……well…….watch out below.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 16th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Comrade Putin was able to accomplish something in the Middle East in six months that NATO/US have been unable to do in over 25 years. To actually win a war and go home. Well, that is unless Pentagon’s objective was always to bomb half the Middle East back to the stone age. Which appears to be the case.

All I can say is……I told you so.

Here is what I said last September when Russia first launched its military campaign.

Is Russia About To Annihilate ISIS?

On a more serious note, if they really go after them, Russia will be able to wipe out ISIS and all associated terrorist parties (American backed “freedom fighters” on Monday and just regular terrorist by Friday) within a few months. That should stabilize the region and stop the humanitarian/refugee disaster we are all witnessing today.

Here is the latest…..

• Moscow is winding down its presence in Syria — Why? Why now?
• Putin Got Exactly What He Wanted in Syria
• Russia withdraws from Syria: What’s next?

What do I believe?

I think Putin believes Assad is now stable enough to finish the job on his own. That is, to complete military operations and to pull his country back from the brink. And that is exactly what Putin wanted to begin with. He didn’t want another Libya and Saudi’s oil pipeline running through Syria to Europe.

Other victories are too numerous to mention here. Here is all you need to know. The imbeciles in Washington are still stunned by all of this. Not only are they scratching their heads trying to figure out how Putin was able to do this in less than six months, they are at a complete loss as to what Putin’s actual long-term plan is.

Here is what I think that plan is, but what do I know……I just work here.

Endgame In Sight: Putin Declares War On Saudi Arabia. Will The US Respond?

3/15/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 22 points (+0.13%) and the Nasdaq down 22 points (-0.45%) 

It’s a little odd that the master himself, Warren Buffett, wasn’t able to answer the question, but we do find ourselves in a very complex market environment. With most traders and investors having a reasonable argument for whatever case may come into their minds. Before we get to Mr. Buffett let’s explore some of them.

• Warning: Don’t Buy Stocks Now; Market Set for Fall, These Charts Show

Here’s the 2-hour bar chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index. It has been rising strongly since the February double bottom at $181, which was also the low of Jan. 20. The problem, from a pattern-recognition perspective, which is something we monitor in ourlive-market Trading Room, is that after a huge double bottom, the historic expectation would be for a monster rally that conforms to the guidelines of Elliott Wave theory (a five-wave rise with orthodox intrawave symmetry).

A very good look at the subject matter indeed. Now…..

• There’s Only One Buyer Keeping S&P 500’s Bull Market Alive

Demand for U.S. shares among companies and individuals is diverging at a rate that may be without precedent, another sign of how crucial buybacks are in propping up the bull market as it enters its eighth year.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. We have talked about this before. I can tell you one thing, I am certainly not buying anything at today’s levels.

• This is ‘judgment day’ for stocks: Technician

After a huge market rout this year that sent stocks tumbling, the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) has regained the majority of its losses and is down only 1 percent year to date. Now, as the S&P approaches its 200-day moving average, its ability to break above that technical resistance will determine whether or not stocks can keep gaining ground, said Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray.

I couldn’t agree more. Another good look at the market. And finally……

• WARREN BUFFETT: The foundation of every market bubble is a ‘sound premise’

When you have a sound premise, you may also have a “This can’t go wrong” mentality. And when you add money to that equation, the price action quickly takes over. Bubbles continue to be obvious only in hindsight, largely because something based on a “sound premise” surely couldn’t be a bubble. Unfortunately in the markets, a premise is sound until it isn’t.

I very good look at the subject matter, but I find it interesting that Mr. Buffett does not identify today’s market environment as a bubble.  Further, his premise that bubbles can only be identified in hindsight is a false one. Plenty of people, including your truly, have been able to identify both the 2000 tech and 2007 mortgage/real estate bubbles.

And I assure you, we are in one today. Call it the “FED Bubble”, “Criminal Monetary Policy Bubble”, “QE Bubble” or what have you, but we are in one. Today’s extreme valuation levels, as I have illustrated here over the last few days, clearly point to that conclusion. In other words, it might be time to expect the worst.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 15th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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In last night’s update David Stockman laid out a fairly good bearish case. A case I tend to agree with. But not everyone believes that our predicament is that dire. In fact, most investors today will go out of their way in an attempt to shore up their bullish view. For instance……

Gutsy Wall Street analyst dares to debunk a sacred truism about the stock market

One the more important and widely-accepted truisms about the P/E ratio is that it has a tendency to revert to its average. But Wells Fargo’s John Silvia dares to dispute that almost sacred principle. “Contrary to popular commentary, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is not mean reverting,” Silvia said on Thursday.

In other words, “this time is different” crowd is making a comeback. I’ll tell you one thing. You wouldn’t find an article like this floating around just a few weeks ago when the market was pushing multi-year lows. Yet, a powerful rally/bounce since then is forcing all sorts of nonsense back to the surface again.

It is NEVER different. 
Adjusted Shiller S&P P/E Ratio chart above is crystal clear. Today’s valuations are some of the highest in history. Only 1929 and 2000 blow tops were higher. And we are now on par with 2007 top.

But that’s not the worst of it. As Mr. Stockman kindly pointed out in the video below, GAAP S&P earnings are down 18% from about a year ago. And with no catalyst to turn our current economic predicament around, I expect these said earnings to accelerate down over the next few months.

In other words, today’s stock market is like an out of fuel jet fighter that just stalled after going nearly vertical. I’ll assure you of this, the final outcome won’t be very pleasant.

As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.

Report Date: March 6th, 2016  (Including COT Reports). 

For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here

3/10/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 5 points (-0.04%) and the Nasdaq down 12 points (-0.26%) 

As Mike Tyson puts it – “Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth”

Today’s market action was incredibly important in a sense that I believe Mr. Market finally delivered that first punch in the mouth to the central bankers around the world. Let’s recap.

As was suggested this morning Mario Draghi and the ECB went all it. To say the least.

Draghi’s bazooka just went bust: NYSE trader

Mario Draghi did his best to “wow” the masses this morning. Interest rate cuts and increased quantitative easing (QE) were well within expectations. The attempts at overkill were made in the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) facility, which is aimed at rescuing the banks (how strange is that?) and the purchase of corporate debt to be included in the QE program. Yeah, just where do you draw that line? Shaking my head. What do they buy next—goods & services?

Considering all of the above the markets should have gone berserk to the upside. And they did, at least for a little bit. That was followed by a massive failure in multiple markets. For instance, the Dow collapsed 300 points while the German DAX lost nearly 5% (top to bottom).

Here is what I believe this failure is telling us. Technicals aside, I believe market participants are starting to get sick and tired of central banker’s BS. And once that actually happens, it will be game over for the ECB/FED/BJ and everyone else.

That is incredibly important.

Central bankers (and investors) around the world believe they can control the markets with nothing more than a statement. Today’s market action suggests that is no longer the case. More importantly, the market is signalling a shift in perception. If Mr.Draghi’s proverbial “Bazooka” failed miserably, there is no reason to believe that the FED will have any more success.

And that in essence spells doom for the over leveraged, overvalued and highly speculative stock market indices around the world.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 10th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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The Day Mr. Market Punched Mr. Draghi In The Mouth Google