Demeter Capital Weekly Report & COT
As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.
Report Date: February 28th, 2016 (Including COT Reports).
For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here. 
Who Cancelled Financial Armageddon?
3/3/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 45 points (0.27%) and the Nasdaq up 4 points (+0.09%)
If you have no short-term memory, as is the case with most “professionals” on Wall Street, investment sentiment was downright scary just two short weeks ago. With numerous investors and market pundits calling for an all out crash and financial Armageddon. I wrote about it at that time.
Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long? (Feb 10th)
Has anything changed since then?
Not fundamentally, but investment sentiment did swing in the opposite direction. With numerous technical indicators now flashing a red light in the “extremely overbought” territory.
But let’s stop for a second to consider our true economic backdrop with two opposite points of views.
- Druckenmiller: Economy won’t hit ‘escape velocity’
- Fed’s Williams convinced U.S. economy will ‘power ahead’
The question is…..whom do you believe?
I will let you decide, but I think the answer is fairly straight forward here. While Mr. Druckenmiller is a Billionaire investor, Mr. Williams verbally BS the market every chance he gets.
Then, there is this.
While true, these two charts below are even more important in terms of long-term forecasting. I have described both in great detail in the past.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 3rd, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Wisdom Of The Day
China Hands Out 1.8 Million Pink Slips As Financial Engineering Insanity Continues
I wrote about China quite a few times last year. Suggesting that their stock market bubble is unsustainable and will collapse. In addition to warning people not to touch China with a ten foot pole at the present moment. Here is a small sample….. China’s Nasdaq 2000 Crash Is Set For A Bounce and Is China Beginning To Collapse?
But wait, there’s more……much more. And when you thought you have heard it all China takes it to the next level.
Chinese officials announced plans to lay off roughly 1.8 million workers in the coal and steel industries, as part of president Xi Jinping’s politically difficult effort to restructure the world’s second-largest economy. It’s unclear as to the time frame for the cuts, which were announced by Yin Weimin, China’s minister for human resources and social security.
My only question is……how do you spell “revolution and social unrest” in Chinese?
I also wrote about exactly that two years ago……Will China’s Economic Collapse Force A Revolutionary Change?
But wait, there’s more….
If you think China’s stock bubble was nuts, look at what’s now happening in its property market
FOMO, or the fear of missing out, has become an increasingly popular acronym of late, joining the ranks of QE, POMO, ZIRP and NIRP in the everyday vernacular of people in financial markets.
FOMO? Ladies and gentlemen ….sometimes there is nothing left to do. Just shake your head, get some popcorn, get comfortable and watch this insanity blow sky high. I would assume sooner rather than later.
China Hands Out 1.8 Pink Slips As Financial Engineering Insanity Continues Google
Bears Close Down Shop As Most Market Participants Continue To Scratch Their Heads
3/2/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 34 points (+0.20%) and the Nasdaq up 14 points (+0.29%)
When I was shorting stocks in May of 2015, I distinctly remember Marc Faber throwing in the towel and suggesting that stocks might never go down again. Due to FED’s intervention. He is at it again……
Dr. Not So Doom: Marc Faber says stocks may rally
“That could drive the market up to maybe around 2,050, but I don’t necessarily see new highs, and if new highs happen, they will happen with very few stocks participating,” he said.
Fair enough. Yet, confusion among market participants continues to dominate. And while some attempt to explain away the rally Reasons Behind the Rally in Equity Markets others openly admit confusion, frustration and complexity associated with today’s market environment. TOP HEDGE FUND MANAGER: ‘The future for me is now more uncertain than at any time I can remember’
About 4 weeks ago I introduced the following chart to you. Suggesting in the process that the market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall over the next few weeks. And that is exactly what has been happening. Although, one can argue, at least for the time being, that bulls are winning the battle.
In reality, the market remains within the confines of a trading range or support/resistance levels outlined above. Further, the market will continue to trade within the said trading range until a certain date is reached in the future. When that happens, the market will stage a massive move. Either up or down.
If you would like to find out exactly when, in TIME, the structure above terminates. In addition to in which direction this larger move will develop, please Click Here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 2nd, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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Even Mr. Greenspan Thinks We Are Doomed
Even the Master Printer himself, Mr. Greenspan, thinks the US Economy and markets are out of sync with reality. And that’s quite something.
Greenspan Says Negative Rates `Warp’ Investment Behavior
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said negative interest rates, if pursued for an extended period of time, will eventually distort saving and investment. “I wouldn’t say dangerous, but it is clearly not productive,” Greenspan, who left the Fed in 2006 after almost 20 years at its helm, said Monday in an interview with Bloomberg Radio and Television. “The big argument about excessively low interest rates for a very long period of time is that it warps the investment pattern on real investments.”
“We’re in trouble basically because productivity is dead in the water,” he said. “Real capital investment is way below average. Why? Because business people are very uncertain about the future.”
What a shocker. His conclusion is basically dead wrong. This has nothing to do with uncertainty. Uncertainty and/or risk have always been a part of any business.
Real capital investment or CAPEX is below average, and will remain so, because there is nothing to invest in. In terms of capital markets, most asset classes are extremely overpriced. Just take a look Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio to realize we are sitting near historic highs.
In terms of CAPEX, it is the same story. Most corporates have already borrowed unlimited amounts of money at ZERO interest rates and invested in their “plant and equipment”. Now, they have no idea what to do with unlimited and nearly FREE capital available to them. Hence the massive stock buybacks over the last few years.
No Mr. Greenspan, it is not the uncertainty about the future. It is your criminal monetary policies that have distorted our capital markets to the 10th degree. Something we are just now starting to pay for.
Is The Stock Market Ready To Breakout To New All Time Highs?
3/1/2016 – A big up day with the Dow Jones up 348 points (+2.11%) and the Nasdaq up 131 points (+2.89%)
Is the stock market ready to breakout to new all time highs? Mr. Cramer is beginning to think so. Which is interesting, considering the fact that he recommended investors do not touch this market as recently as a few days ago. Perhaps the recent rally in stocks has forced him to reconsider his view.
The analysis in the video below in not his own and is actually quite good. I will let you watch it and decide for yourself. As for me, I am not changing the view I have shared with my premium subscribers. And if you wish to find out what that view is, I encourage you to Click Here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 1st, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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How Banks Are Planning To Steal Your Cash
Make no mistake. As the war on cash accelerates over the next few years, negative interest rates are coming to the neighborhood bank near you. The timing is a simple function of how aggressive the FED wants to get when the next recession hits. One can argue that the recession is already here. But what exactly does that mean? Here is a fairly good explanation……
One bank CEO outlines what will happen to your bank account if the Fed takes interest rates negative
The answer was simple: “If rates go negative, consumer deposit rates go to zero and PNC would charge fees on accounts.” This means that customers who hold accounts at the bank would have to pay PNC, the 10th-largest bank in the US by assets, a fee to hold the money in the bank instead of vice versa.
I wish the above was a joke, but it is not. The FED will stop at nothing to destroy the last bit of sanity (savers, investors and freedom) for the benefit of the stock market casino and perceived economic wealth we have accumulated over the last few decades. Fortunately, as yours truly, some folks are starting to fight back…..
It is time for the US/EU Citizens to unite and send a clear message to the fraudsters running our central banks and governments. That message should be simple, loud and clear….
“I’ll give you my cash when you pry it from my cold, dead hands”
Golden Dreams, China’s Upcoming Devaluation & The Stock Market Rally
2/29/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 127 points (-0.76%) and the Nasdaq down 33 points (-0.71%)
Gold bugs are excited. It appears Gold is breaking out of its multi-year slump after taking out important resistance levels. Fundamentals look right as well. As any financial crisis caused by the overvalued stock market would surely cause massive inflows into the sector.
Why buying gold now could be a lot like buying stocks in 2009.
Perhaps. Yet, a number of things do not add up. Most importantly, various technical and sentiment indicators suggest that the bottom is not yet in. Here is the view expressed by Matt Demeter Find Out Why Gold Is Going Much Lower A view that is just as valid today.
Now, let’s talk about China. The first rule of investing is…….when a government entity issues a strong statement in support of a financial instrument, you know what to do. Run the other way. Here is what China had to say about Yuan devaluation
China assures US no devaluation, pushing reforms forward
Fair enough, but I would rather listen to what hedge fund manager Kyle Bass had to say about the subject matter. We wrote about it just a few days ago Further Yuan Devaluation Imminent In other words, China has no choice. It either devalues or goes through an economic/financial collapse. Invest accordingly.
Finally,there is at least one bull out there who still believes….
Tom Lee: These factors point to higher stocks
Longtime bull Tom Lee said Friday it’s been tough lately to be positive on stocks, but too many investors may have have tilted to the bearish camp. Lee played down the concern about the possibility of a global recession, saying market internals like transport and small-cap stocks are not pointing to a recession. “If we’re actually seeing worsening economic conditions, these should be in a death spiral,” he said. But he noted that these groups have actually been doing better.
I actually would have to agree with Mr. Lee in regards to investor sentiment. I wrote about it just a few days ago. Shocking: Here Is Why The Stock Market Is Rallying
As for the latter, I strongly disagree. Fewer and fewer stocks are keeping this market afloat. On top of that, valuations are still incredibly high as per Shiller’s Adjusted P/E ratio. We are talking about historic highs. All while the S&P earnings are falling at the fastest pace since 2008 financial crisis. Forward guidance was adjusted down a little over 2%.
Put all of that together and it becomes fairly clear which way the market will swing long-term. That is not to say we can’t have substantial rallies along the way, but rather, to suggest that any bullish dreams might have to be adjusted here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 29th InvestWithAlex.com
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Golden Dreams, China’s Upcoming Devaluation & The Stock Market Rally Google