Hey Buddy…..Want To Bet Against George Soros?
1/22/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 210 points (+1.32%) and the Nadaq up 119 points (+2.66%).
If you have been wondering just how much imaginary wealth the stock market has erased over the last few weeks, wonder no more…..
But most investors are not at all concerned. Since the bottom on Wednesday the market has recovered quite a bit and “Buy the Dip” mentality is gaining traction faster than the overall market. At least Mr. Cramer is no longer freaking out and calling for an all out market crash.
But the worst might still lie ahead. At least according to George Soros…
But it is not only Soros. Last week I wrote about Soros’s ex partner, Jim Rogers shorting the US Indices as well.
Jim Rogers: I Am Shorting US Markets & Junk
Plus, a few others….
Icahn, Soros, Rogers, Faber, Druckenmiller All Warned…..No One Paid Attention
Point being, investors might want to thing twice about betting against industry titans such as Soros, Rogers, Icahn, etc…… Chances are, their track record is better than yours. I am just glad that my analytical framework matches theirs.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 22nd, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – January 22nd, 2016
COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.
While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.
Latest data, as of January 19th, 2016
Currencies:
- USD: 1K Long Vs. 57K Short – No changes. Substantial short interest remains.
- Canadian Dollar: 79K Long Vs. 2K Short – No changes. Significant long interest remains.
- British Pound: 173K Long Vs. 4K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. British pound remains bullish.
- Japanese Yen: 68K Long Vs. 85K Short – Neutral.
- Euro: 132K Long Vs. 34K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Euro remain bullish.
- Australian Dollar: 94K Long Vs. 1K Short – Significant increase in net long exposure. Significant long position remains.
Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is neutral. This is consistent with our view that the FED won’t raise rates by much.
Markets/Commodities/Volatility:
- E-Mini S&P 500: 380K Long Vs. 331K Short – Net neutral position remains.
- Nasdaq 100-Mini: 16K Long Vs. 140K Short – Sizable short position. Slight decrease in net short position.
- VIX: 41K Long Vs. 62K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Neutral position remains.
- Gold: 49 Long Vs. 45K Short – Gold is back to being neutral.
Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P, VIX and gold. At the same time, commercials now have a very large short position on the Nasdaq. That is important.
Next Week’s Market Calendar:
- Q-4 Earnings.
- Wednesday, January 27th: FED Interest Rate Decision & Statement.
- Thursday, January 28th: Durable Goods
- Friday, January 29th: GDP Data
COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – January 22nd, 2016 Google
Amazing: Learn How Demeter Research Called The Exact Short-Term Top and Bottom In The 10-Year Rate (and the stock market)
The two short videos below display just how accurate Matt Demeter’s work can be. Please watch them sequentially to fully understand the power of his analysis. Then, CLICK HERE to learn more about his work and approach.
First, November 9th, 2015 exact short-term top call.
January 22nd, 2016 exact short-term bottom call.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Here is the best explanation I came across when I first started research into my mathematical and timing work. And after more than a decade of development work behind me, I can attest that the statement below is 100% accurate.
Markets being, at minimum, a three-dimensional phenomena, exactly like a large molecule rotating in space, in and out of Z plane, with DNA coding sequences governing the entire process. Without understanding the market is 3-D, twisting like a plant governed by the phyllotactic laws of dual number series and harmonic composition and decomposition, all measurements taken on a 2-D chart become misleading. – Dr. B
Carl Icahn: Earnings Are Shockingly Overinflated
With most Corporates about to report Carl Icahn believes earnings are overinflated by at least 20%. Watch the video below. Plus, he reaffirms his view that the stock market is overpriced and most likely in a bubble.
I have been saying the same thing for quite a while now. For instance, Is Today’s “Real” Stock Market P/E Ratio Above 30? -OR- BlackRock: Most Of Corporate Earnings Growth (If Any) Is Accounting Driven
I have said it before and I will say it again. Today’s distortions are so great that the FED’s Ponzi Finance makes Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout. But its more than that. Everyone is playing the same accounting game. Whether it is through low interest rates, share buybacks or outright accounting gimmicks.
While impossible to calculate, I would say that a more normalized environment would add 5 to 10 points to today’s P/E ratios. By the way, Shiller’s Adjusted P/E Ratio is still at 24. Turning an already expensive market into “are you freaking kidding me overpriced accident” waiting to happen.
Interesting times ahead, that’s for sure.
Shocking: Here Is Exactly Where The Market Will Bottom
1/21/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 113 points (+0.72%) and the Nasdaq up 1 point (+0.01%)
I was incredibly excited when I first saw this article.
Finally, someone else who knows exactly where this “bear market” will end. Instead, the author deflated it with the following whimper…..
The selloff will end when investors feel prices have fallen by enough to account for whatever bad news might still be lurking, undiscovered. The problem is that nobody knows with precision how much asset prices need to correct. “Rarely do financial markets find the fair value that’s fundamentally justified, and stop,” says Jeffrey Rosenberg, a managing director at money manager BlackRock (BLK). “They overshoot. It’s really hard to say whether we’re at fair value, or we’ve overshot.”
And five times five is twenty five. But I would have to disagree with this earth-shattering revelation. It IS possible to predict and to know. That is exactly what my mathematical and timing work does.
For instance, in October and November of 2015 I told my subscribers that the Dow was looking for a lower low (below May of 2015). And that once that low is in and confirmed, we would know, with a high degree of certainty, exactly WHERE and WHEN the Dow will bottom. To the day and to the point.
And as buffoonish as it may sound, I stand by that statement. Not only do I stand by it, I am currently looking at the said calculation projecting the market into an exact bottom. One thing is clear. If it is correct, and I am confident that it is, crocodile tears will soon flood the neighborhood of where the wall meets the street. Click Here to learn more.
And those who proclaim the impossibility of the above should understand the following.
But it certainly casts a cloud over any bargain hunting. And note that these numbers only measure how far the market would have to fall to reach average levels. They do not reflect what would happen if the market did what it has done frequently in the past, and plunged back down to very cheap levels. Maybe that will never happen. Let’s hope. Because when you factor in those numbers, it’s a long way down.
Precisely. Despite the recent sell-off, today’s stock market is still incredibly overpriced. And I don’t care if your Charles Schwab financial adviser disagrees. Today’s stock market is the 4th most expensive in history. Right behind 1929, 2000 and 2007 tops. I have covered this fact on this blog extensively…..here is just a small sample Is Our Overvaluation Premise Wrong?
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 21st, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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Shocking: Here Is Exactly Where The Market Will Bottom Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
When You Are Worth $50 Billion & You Are Still Not The Richest Guy At The Table
We have talked about this before, but it’s worth taking another look.
- Sixty-two people have the same amount of wealth as half the world
- Oxfam says wealth of richest 1% equal to other 99%
And while most people will never get it, we have only the FED to blame for this wealth disparity. When the wealthy have access to zero or negative rate financing on a massive scale, that is exactly what you get. I will simply repeat what I have said here before.
First, this stagnates the economy. The accumulated wealth held by so very few people is not being properly allocated to benefit the overall economy. For the most part, it just sits there accumulating interest. Second, it creates social unrest. If history teaches us anything, eventually, this type of a “social setup” leads to revolutions or worst, wars.
And there lies the problem with the overall US Economy and the upcoming severe recession of 2015-2017. Those who study finance or financial markets know that there are no free lunches. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper for financial misdeeds and capital missallocation. No economy can grow over an extended period of time when only the top 1-20% of the population benefits…..again, thanks to the misguided FED policies. And while the top 20% are enjoying their rewards for the time being, the upcoming bear market of will impact them the most (unless they go short at the right time).
I think I smell another bailout in the future.
Should Investors Be Panicking Right About Now?
1/20/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 249 points (-1.55%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.12%)
If you are keeping track, and not very many people are by this point, the Dow has lost 10% since the beginning of the year while the Nasdaq has lost 11%. And while most bulls were expecting a blow off rally to new highs just a few short-weeks ago, such dreams no longer exist in today’s market environment.
But investors must remember, financial markets don’t travel in straight lines. And given today’s extremely oversold conditions and technical indicators, some sort of a bounce is imminent. Or is it?
Let’s quickly look at two charts. First, today’s S&P…..
As you can see, it broke below an important technical support level earlier today. Quite by a considerable margin. Suggesting that the break was real. Something similar had happened in 1987. At least structurally or sentiment wise.
Once the S&P broke below prior support in 1987, it proceeded to collapse in now infamous crash.
Are we dealing with something similar here and should investors be panicking right about now?
Yes and no. Yes, in a sense that we are operating under very similar technical and sentiment conditions. As my earlier blog post suggested, investor sentiment has turned violently bearish. Plus, the market is heavily oversold, by most traditional measures. Again, similar conditions existed right before the 1987 crash.
At the same time, we are in a completely different cyclical environment. At least according to my mathematical and timing work. An environment that doesn’t necessarily call for a crash.
That is to say, while conditions for a crash certainly exist, it is just as likely that we will experience a monster short covering rally or a bounce.
So, which way will the market swing?
While our long-term forecast is crystal clear, short-term it is incredibly complex. But if you are still interested, please Click Here to find out.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 20th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!