timing is everything

November 11, 2015November 11, 2015

Has China Been Fixed?

Daily Chart ANovember 11 InvestWithAlex

11/11/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 57 points (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq down 16 points (-0.32%).

Has China been fixed?

If your think in a linear fashion, which would eventually be devastating to your investment returns, the answer is YES. One Less Hurdle for Fed Hike: China Comes Back From Danger Zone

When the Federal Reserve in September held off from its first interest-rate increase since 2006, the U.S. central-bank head cited growing concerns about China’s market turmoil among the reasons. “A lot of our focus has been on risks around China,” she said in a press conference after the decision.

The above is just another data point that the FED is now a market puppet. The reality is quite different. Take a look at this 3-year Chinese Large Cap ETF (FXI).

China Market Investwithalex

Does it look like the worst is behind us?

Well, one can argue that the bottom has been put in place and that the Chinese market is now ready to stage a come back rally. Yet, I can just as easily argue that we are in the early stages of a more severe decline. Think 2000-2002 on the Nasdaq. There are no technical confirmations either way. At least not yet. As a result, we have to rely on the fundamentals. And the picture there is kind of scary.

In other words, it is kind of presumptuous to assume that China has somehow bottomed. If anything, their fundamentals continue to deteriorate. In July of this year I have suggested the following China’s Nasdaq 2000 Crash Is Set For A Bounce And while I was a few weeks early, we did get that bounce. A bounce that might now be over.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 11th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com

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Has China Been Fixed Google

November 11, 2015

Investment Grin Of The Day

How I feel every Friday afternoon. Mostly because I am a market addict.

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

November 11, 2015

Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity

I continue to maintain that Facebook (FB) is probably the best SHORT out there. For the reasons outlined here, Why Short Sellers Should Drool All Over Facebook And also here, Is Facebook (FB) Cooking “Likes”…..Again?

As a quick update, I have witnessed FAKE likes/views on my dead page skyrocket about 5X over the last few weeks. Listen, I don’t have anything against Facebook. Just pointing out the fact that they are insanely overvalued while cooking their internal viewership and interaction metrics. Metrics quite a few people depend on to value the company.

Further, Marc Andreessen sells $96.5M in Facebook stock (half his stake). Does he know something other investors don’t?

Finally, consider the video below. I have to admit, I cannot verify the information in this video. However, if true, it points to what I have suggested above. Facebook is cutting major corners in their attempts to increase “eyeballs”, interactions and add revenue. That only works until it doesn’t. Just ask MySpace and many others.

Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity Google

November 10, 2015November 10, 2015

Just How Unlikely Is Another Bear Leg Here?

Daily Chart ANovember 10 InvestWithAlex

11/10/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 28 points (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 12 points (-0.24%)

A couple of interesting things to consider here today. First, here is how most investors today think. The next 1000-point down day is coming

For those worried about a financial collapse who keep yelling “global debt,” we are not on the cusp of another financial collapse. There is simply too much available money in the world and more at the ready whenever anything remotely resembling a collapse threatens. Remember, don’t fight the Fed? Well, don’t fight the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, People’s Bank of China and any number of other central banks either. If they have to monetize (socialize) half of the planet’s debt and worry about inflation later, that’s what they will do. Mind you, I’m not arguing that’s right, I’m just saying it is reality.

I would tend to agree, but don’t make the mistake of believing the stock market cannot have a big down leg here. It can and it will

The stock market is a function of multiple TIME cycles oscillating within its composition. Meaning, when the time is right, the stock market will decline. No matter what the FED or the Bank of Japan do. It is just as much about investor psychology as it is about liquidity and valuations..

Now, not that we need another confirmation point, but here you go…..

consumer credit The article attached to this chart suggests that the FED will raise interest rates to take away the proverbial “punch bowl”. After all, they don’t want things getting out of control.

I am sorry to pop anyone’s bubble, but things are already out of control. All time high in consumer credit is yet another data point to suggest that we are in a massive financial or speculative bubble. The time to take this punch bowl away was 3 years ago. The FED has missed the boat. Now, it will have to collapse under its own weight.

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Just How Unlikely Is Another Bear Leg Here? Google

November 10, 2015

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

investment wisdom of the day 23 investwithalex

Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

November 10, 2015November 10, 2015

How To Eat Nails For Breakfast

valeant

Participate in financial markets long enough and sooner or later you will get your head handed to you. And I don’t care how good you are, sometimes things are simply out of your control. Highly publicized Bill Ackman’s Valeant (VRX) investment is a perfect example of that.

Last week we talked about value investing and how difficult or gut wrenching it can be to purchase great businesses for 0.50….0.25…..0.10 cents on the dollar. What Value Investors Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market

Mr. Ackman offers another $2 Billion learning experience (his losses thus far). If you believe in your investment thesis strong enough and your analysis checks out, stay put. Even double up. All successful investors out there had similar defining moments. Ackman says Valeant stock ‘extraordinary bargain’

“Life will go on for Valeant,” he said. “While this has been a very damaging moment for the company … we think the Valeant business is quite robust.” Ackman said he thought the stock was “tremendously undervalued” and had an “89% upside.” He added that investors were forgetting the “rest of Valeant’s business.”

Perhaps another hedge fund manager, Whitney Tilson, has said it the best……

Every investor should analyze this case study to learn from Ackman’s experience, as every last one of us has had (and will have) to deal with a major investment going south. How do you collect more information, filter out the noise, analyze the situation, control your emotions, and ultimately make the right decision among four choices: dump it all, trim, hold, or buy? It is almost never obvious what the right answer is — rather, every option feels really crappy when you’ve lost a lot of money on an investment, especially if you’re in the hot glare of the public spotlight. I’ve been there and it’s no fun.

In other words, if you want to succeed in this business, learn to eat nails for breakfast. Preferably without milk.

How To Eat Nails For Breakfast Google

November 9, 2015November 10, 2015

These Shocking Charts Lead To Bullish Nightmares. At Least They Should.

Daily Chart ANovember 9 InvestWithAlex

11/9/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 178 points (-0.99%) and the Nasdaq down 52 points (-1.01%)

It’s all about the FED. Right?

Not so fast. Last week it was December rate hike priced in? Maybe, experts say Today, we get a little sell-off and this headline pops up. Wall St. falls as rate hike looms and growth fears linger

Which one is it?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the FED is now irrelevant. Why the FED will not raise rates in a meaningful way.

Instead, investors should concentrate on what the market charts are telling them.

Before we get there, let me ask you something. What has changed between September 29th bottom and today? NOTHING FUNDAMENTAL, only investor sentiment. Where on September 29th investors were freaking out and numerous commentators were calling for an all out market crash, today it’s the opposite. Apparently, the bear market is over and we are getting ready to surge higher.

Yet, fundamentally speaking, we are still in the same conundrum. I continue to maintain that we are witnessing a major slow down in earnings and the US Economy. Most corporates missing and guiding lower is a clear evidence of that. Forward guidance is down 2%. Sure, some companies like Google, Amazon, etc…. are outperforming, but they are an exception, not the rule. The FED remains between the rock and a hard place. Unable to raise interest rates or stimulate the economy further.

If anything, we are getting numerous confirmations that earnings and the US Economy are falling apart.

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. The charts below should at least give bulls indigestion. Please note, some of the charts below are a few days/weeks old. Yet, their meaning or composition have not changed.

Chart #1: Hey everyone, look at all of those gaps. If you think the market won’t come back to close them, sooner or later, you are living in a fantasy land. But listen, we are all adults here. Who am I to tell you NOT to buy Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc….at today’s ridiculous valuation levels. As Citigroup suggests, “Be brave and go long”.
Untitled

Chart #2: Oldie but goodie. Again, overall earnings/economy are slowing down while Shiller’s adjusted S&P ratio is at its 3rd highest level in history. Investors have paid more for stocks on two other occasions. In 1929 and 2000. But, unlike yours truly, most bulls don’t mind paying the same premium today. shillers PE Chart #3: Look at all of these non-confirmations from Russell 2000, Dow Transports and Biotech (IBB). These are just a few. There are many other. New Bull market??? Yeah, sure…..to infinity and beyond.

rut

transports

ibb

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These Shocking Charts Lead To Bullish Nightmares. At Least They Should. Google

November 9, 2015November 10, 2015

Investment Grin Of The Day

Nobel Prize committee is considering two new leading theories on the Great Pyramids... investment grin of the day 79 investwithalex

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

November 6, 2015November 6, 2015

Global Indices, Futures, Bonds, Stocks, Commodities & Currencies. Plus, 300 Days Of NO Gains.

Daily Chart ANovember 6 InvestWithAlex

11/6/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 47 points (+0.26%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.38%).

Despite the recent monster rally in stocks, most indices are sitting near their annual break even points. For instance, the Dow is just 80 points higher from where it opened on January 2^nd. The S&P is slightly higher while the NYSE/Russell are sitting below their respective opening numbers. Only the Nasdaq is up for the year. That begs the question…. is that indicative of a speculative bubble or will other indices have to catch up? We will discuss that next week.

In the meantime, I am incredibly excited to announce our partnership with Demeter Research and Demeter Capital. To increase our product offering and to offer you access to some of the most popular markets out there. Plus, an active trading environment.

Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. I will let our sales letter below explain everything in greater detail. Should you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Global Stock Indices, Futures, Bonds and Stocks
Commodities & Currencies

Active Short-Term & Long-Term Trading Environment

Just How Much Money Would You Be Able To Make While Minimizing Risk
-OR-
Just How Much Would Your Investment Returns Improve
If You Knew….With a High Degree of Certainty
Where The Next Turning Point Is
Short-Term & Long-Term

Sometimes To The Penny and In All Of Your Favorite Markets.

WELL, NOW YOU CAN HAVE THIS INFORMATION AT YOUR FINGERTIPS
(***First, take a look at the video below)And that is exactly what happened.

Who is Matt Demeter?

Matt Demeter is a hedge fund manager at Demeter Capital and the person behind Demeter Research. Matt graduated from Duke University with a Bachelor’s degree in Biology and Genetics. And after seven years as a laboratory scientist, Matt entered the money management business in 2004 by starting his own hedge fund and developing a unique technical analysis system. The system you see here. Click Here To Learn More.

One thing is guaranteed; you will not find this work and analysis anywhere else.

Here is just a brief summary of Matt Demeter’s approach…..

Matt’s work is based on calculating moving averages, trend lines and support/resistance lines in 3-Dimensional Space. As Alex Dvorkin has shown and proven in his book “Timed Value”, the stock market is a multidimensional entity that moves in at least 3-Dimensional Space. Matt’s work approaches the market in a similar fashion, leading to astonishing accuracy in selected markets. Learn More
Fast deployment in multiple markets and most popular financial instruments.
Incredible accuracy. Matt’s support and resistance calculations allow him to pin point minor and major reversal points within the 0.5% margin of error 50% of the time. The other 40% fluctuate within the 0.5-1% variance band.
Highly active long-term and/or short-term trading environment.
Minimization of risk. Matt’s system often yields the margin of error of just a few ticks or pennies. Allowing him to set stop loss or reversal points shockingly close to the original entry points.
Matt’s approach concentrates only on high probability trades in multiple markets. This allows for further risk minimization while positioning the overall portfolio for large gains.
Ability to know exactly where and when major tops and/or bottoms are put in place.
And much more……Lean More

In other words, Demeter Research system above allows investors to….

Know exactly when most popular financial instruments are at their respective short-term or long-term turning points. Sometimes to the penny.
Take position at the above mentioned turning points. At times with the tightest stop loss or reversal points in the industry.
And as you can very well understand, all of the above leads to market beating gains, often by a considerable margin, and in a low risk environment.

P.S. And don’t forget, you can start using Matt’s approach today to achieve market beating performance. What are you waiting for? Just Click Here.

MARKETS COVERED

STOCK INDICES	BONDS	COMMODITIES	CURRENCIES
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq DAX and Euro Stoxx Nikkei, Shanghai Composite Brazilian Bovespa, Emerging Markets	US 10 Year Treasury Rate Long-Term Treasuries ETF Junk Bond ETFs Municipal Bond ETF	Gold, Silver, Copper and Mining ETFs Crude Oil and Energy ETFs Wheat, Corn, Soybeans Agricultural ETFs	Australian Dollar British Pound Canadian Dollar Euro US Dollar Index Japanese Yen