Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Does Donald Trump Have A Point?
Love him or hate him, but Donald Trump has a legitimate point here. Trump: Janet Yellen Keeping Interest Rates Low as Political Favor to Obama
“This is a political thing, keeping these interest rates at this level,” Trump, the billionaire Republican presidential candidate, said in a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle. “Janet Yellen for political reasons is keeping interest rates so low that the next guy or person who takes over as president could have a real problem. Trump argued, could be “a recession or worse.” On the other hand, Trump faulted the Federal Reserve for not having acted sooner. “Yellen is keeping rates too low, too long,” Trump said.
Dead on.
First, nearly everyone (Icahn, Rogers, Faber, yours truly, etc….) agrees, the FED should have raised interest rates a long time ago. As far back as 2011. It is too late now and that has been outlined on this blog many times before. You can even classify it as “Economic Negligence”.
Second, an incumbent will always have a difficult time winning a re-election if the Economy tanks on their watch. “It’s the economy stupid.” And since Mr. Obama has been very vocal in attributing the current “Economic Miracle” to his brilliant advances in Ponzi Finance, it would make sense that the Democrats would win/lose the election based on what the stock market and/or the economy do over the next 12 months.
Luckily, for Mr. Trump, the market might resolve this little conundrum in the Republican favor and before the 2016 campaign kicks into high gear.
Acceleration In Housing Is Inevitable & Will Support The Economy. Really???
10/15/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 218 points (1.29%) and the Nasdaq up 87 points (+1.82%)
You know that a bear market is just getting started when you see something like this…..The U.S. Economy Is Just Starting to Tap Into a Big Source of Dry Powder
There’s a big reason to believe that the U.S. economy will be able to withstand the start of the Fed tightening cycle: There’s still plenty of pent up activity in the housing sector. And it’s hard to see the U.S. economy running out of steam with this much upside left in residential investment, according to some economists and analysts. Going back to the 1940s, the U.S. central bank has never embarked upon a tightening phase with housing having so much room to run to the upside.
Room to the upside? Have they heard the phrase “blow off top” and/or “dead cat bounce”. That is exactly where real estate is today. The primary top was reached in 2006, we are now putting in a secondary top. There is nothing fundamentally good with housing being unaffordable. Which is the situation today.
“Business cycle expansions are likely when residential investment is low as a share of GDP,” wrote Doyle. “Recessions typically only transpire when residential investment becomes elevated as a share of GDP.”
What? First, this is utter nonsense. Second, someone forgot to tell this guy that most of the FED’s stimulus went into the stock market and share buybacks this time around. Not towards any sort of productive GDP growth.
“What is interesting about this is that the housing market is accelerating at a time when the labor market is near full employment,” he said. He suggested that any shortage of construction workers could be remedied by displaced mining employees and higher wages to attract additional labor.
You see, anyway you twist it, it comes up roses. All of those displaced $100K+ oil patch workers can move to San Francisco to build houses for all of those Uber millionaires. That will surely cause our GDP growth to skyrocket.
Dutta concurred with the demographic support for construction activity, pointing out that children born in the 1980s, when the birth rate was climbing, will make up the next batch of first-time homebuyers. He also noted that cyclical forces, such as easing lending standards and rising homebuilder confidence, buoy the outlook for the sector. “Bad things do not happen to America when housing is moving up and to the right while Americans are finding jobs,” said Dutta.
There is only one response to that. People did not believe the stock market can go down in 1929,1937, 1946,1972,1987, 2000, 2007, etc….. If anything, primary economic indicators were surging at the above dates. Yet, the market/economy turned around and proceeded to collapse with stunning speed. So much so that Mr. Dutta would be better off studying blow off tops.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 15th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Acceleration In Housing Is Inevitable & Will Support The Economy. Really??? Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
To know, is to know that you know nothing. That is the meaning of true knowledge.- By all means, marry. If you get a good wife, you’ll become happy; if you get a bad one, you’ll become a philosopher.
- True wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how little we understand about life, ourselves, and the world around us. -Socrates
Does Putin Have A Point?
Even though I wasn’t born here, I love America. I think it’s one of the best countries in the world with some amazing people. Yet, nothing infuriates me more than the fact that my tax money is being used to wage a pointless war around the world.
Now, a few other people are starting to see what I have been saying here for close to 2 years. We are on a clear path to war with Russia. A war that will end us all Greater US vs. Russia War Is Inevitable – U.S. Analyst
I will go out on a limb here and put the blame on the US Administration for this one.
- Here’s Why Obama Is Refusing to Meet with Russia to Discuss Syria
- Amid Russian airstrikes, a Putin craze takes hold in Mideast
- Putin slams US on Syria, says partners have ‘mush for brains’
So, let me get this straight. Russia and Putin have directly requested a target list of things NOT to hit in Syria prior to starting their bombing campaign. A request that went out to both the President of the United States and the Pentagon. A request to which Russia received an official response of “Go Pound Sand”.
Of course, you know what happened next. The US Media went into overdrive by suggesting that Russia is killing American trained “Freedom Fighters”. The same freedom fighters who instigated 9/11.
I am truly dumbfounded by all of this. Unless the true intent, as I have suggested before, is to start an actual all out war with Russia.
As the video above clearly illustrates, the first step to war is to demonize your enemy. The US Administration and media have done quite a good job demonizing Russia over the last few years. Too bad more Americans care about the Kardashians than what is truly going on around the world.
Earnings Excuse Galore
10/14/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 158 points (-0.92%) and the Nasdaq down 14 points (-0.29%)
What will your favorite company blame for its earnings shortfall?
There are so many good choices. Interest rates, strong dollar, Mr. Putin, higher labor and insurance costs, slowing economy, slow down in share buybacks, inability to push accounting principals any further, etc…
As was indicated earlier, Q-3 earnings season is not off to a good start. And while Apple may sell a zillion iPhones, destroying the next generation of young narcissists in the process, few other companies can match their popularity at the present moment.
Just earlier today WalMart slashed forward earnings guidance, blaming wage hikes and all sort of other nonsense for their shortcomings. Thus far, Mr. Market has rewarded WalMart with a 10% beating.
Listen, the reality is a little bit different. I think a high percentage of companies will guide lower or miss earnings. Now that that the QE and zero interest rates have worked their way though our financial system, the US Economy is rolling over into a severe recession. And there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. Given today’s overvaluation levels, that is not a good sign for the overall stock market.
But hey, what do I know....Bill Miller: Now is perfect time to buy US stocks
“But we also want people to take money out of stocks because they hate them, so they’re cheap,” he said in a ” Squawk Box ” interview. “That’s exactly the environment we have today.”
I especially love it when they all laugh at 1% treasury yields, followed by an always convenient, “Where else are you going to put your money?”
What these Bozos don’t get, as both Carl Icahn and I have outlined a number of times before……it is a hell of a lot better to earn 1% than to take a 30-50% haircut on your capital. Just as people found out 2000-2002 and then again in 2007-2009. I guess some people never learn.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 14th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Grin Of The Day
So Far……Not So Good
The long awaited Q-3 earnings season is here and it is not off to a good start.
- Wells Fargo profit inches up -down in the after hours
- Intel Profits Slide Amid PC Slump – down in the after hours
- JPMorgan kicks off bank earnings with a miss – down in the after hours
- Caterpillar Inc. Slashes Its Outlook – down 45% over the last 12 months.
Now, call me crazy, but I am starting to see a trend here. Not a good sign when Shiller’s adjusted S&P P/E is sitting at 25 or at the 3rd highest level in history. That is, right behind 1929 and 2000 tops.
In other words, as earnings and the US Economy begin their collapse, it appears investors don’t mind paying for stocks at insane valuation levels. I have no doubt that it will work out great for them. It always does.
Will The Next Leg Down Be Contained By Emerging Markets & Commodities?
10/13/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 50 points (-0.30%) and the Nasdaq down 42 points (-0.87%)
As you very well know, commodities and emerging markets have really taken a beating over the last few years. One can even argue that countries like Brazil and Russia are selling at give away valuations. And to a certain extent they are.
But that’s not the issue here. This is GOLDMAN: Welcome to the ‘3rd wave’ of the financial crisis
In the article above Goldman Sachs implies that we are currently going through a 3rd financial correction, but this correction will be mostly confined to emerging markets and commodities. Hence, not much impact will be felt in our capital markets.
I tend to disagree with their assessment, but not for the reason you might think. Yes, we can talk about the fundamentals, just how overpriced the stock market is and that we are in a bubble. We all know that.
The reason I don’t believe the “3rd wave down” will be contained has to do with my cyclical analysis and today’s market structure.
If I had to compare today’s stock market to any other period, in terms of its cyclical composition, it would have to be either 1899-1914 or 1966-1982 bear markets. These periods match our current market conditions nearly perfectly.
Take 2007-2009 mid cycle panic for instance (7-9 years in – half point). We have witnessed identical moves in 1907-1908 and 1972-1974. Their respective half-way points.
Here is what I driving at. We are still in a secular bear market that will only terminate in 2017. The problem is, all secular bear markets tend to end in fairly steep 2-3 year bear markets. And while we are unlikely to see 2009 lows, the US Equity markets won’t be able to escape this financial correction. No way and no matter what Goldman believes.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 13th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Will The Next Leg Down Be Contained By Emerging Markets & Commodities? Google
