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The Best Investment Advice Money Can’t Buy

Daily Chart September 30 InvestWithAlex

9/30/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 236 points (+1.47%) and the Nasdaq up 103 points (+2.28%). 

As we end 3rd Quarter, the Dow finds itself down -8.6% , Nasdaq -2.5% and S&P -6.8% for the year . And considering where the market is today, the bottom is either in or this bear market is just getting warmed up. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here. 

What I find interesting is the fact that some of the top money managers in the world agree on one thing. The same advice I gave to my parents and immediate family over a year ago.

Bill Gross: 

Global fiscal (and monetary) policy is not now constructive nor growth enhancing, nor is it likely to be. If that be the case, then equity market capital gains and future returns are likely to be limited if not downward sloping. High quality global bond markets offer little reward relative to durational risk. Private equity and hedge related returns cannot long prosper if global growth remains anemic. Cash or better yet “near cash” such as 1-2 year corporate bonds are my best idea of appropriate risks/reward investments. The reward is not much, but as Will Rogers once said during the Great Depression – “I’m not so much concerned about the return on my money as the return of my money.”

Carl Icahn: 

“What is better…..making 1-2% or losing 30% as people did in 2008? Right now is extremely dangerous.”

Warren Buffett: 

And while Warren Buffett is too mainstream to state the same, his own indicators are flashing a red light. WSJ ‘Buffett Indicator’ Flashes Warning for Stocks

I will be a little bit more blunt. If you don’t short and/or hedge, get the hell out of this stock market. And even if I am wrong short-term, historical data points to negative returns over the next few years. Considering today’s overvaluation levels, the FED imbalances and the overall macro picture, there were only two other times when we have been this overpriced. At 1929 and 2000 tops.

So, I will tell you what I told my parents. Get out and go into cash (they don’t short). Preserve capital and get ready to buy when blood is flowing through the streets. And I assure you, given today’s imbalances, this river of blood is coming. Perhaps in a flash flood fashion.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 30th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Best Investment Advice Money Can’t Buy Google

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Is Facebook (FB) Cooking “Likes”…..Again?

Daily Chart September 29 InvestWithAlex

9/29/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 46 points (+0.29%) and the Nasdaq down 26 points (-0.59%) 

The stock market is not doing very much, so let’s talk about what I believe to be one of the best long-term short opportunities out there today. Facebook (FB). You can learn more about it here. Why Short Sellers Should Drool All Over Facebook (Published 2 months ago when Facebook was selling close to $100).

About two months ago I told you about a discrepancy that I have noticed right before and after Facebook’s Q-2 end.

Particularly, I have two old business pages on Facebook that I haven’t really used in about two years. When they were active,  I have probably spent a grand total of around $500 advertising both pages on FB. Just testing things out. Since stopping, those pages went dead.

Until about July of this year. Around that time, one of the pages got 5 likes while the other got 7. Plus, around 20 people followed the pages in question over the last few weeks. Curiously, these pages got no action, literally ZERO, in both respects over the last two years.  The content is old and whatever content is there is marginal at best. Point being, they shouldn’t be attracting attention.

I am now seeing this trend reappear at the end of September.

The question is…..why or what is going on?

While the story above is anecdotal at best and even though I cannot prove this, I believe Facebook is turning to artificial “click or like farming” to squeeze more revenue growth out of their business. Not a good sign at a P/E ratio of 88 to 95.

Point being, Facebook growth is slowing down. If they are indeed doing “Click Farming”, it must be slowing down substantially. And soon as investors get a whiff of that, they will send this thing down to $20 a share, where it belongs, and as my previous analysis suggests. At the very least, it should re-test $72.  You can thank me later.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 29th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Is Facebook (FB) Cooking “Likes”…..Again? Google

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Carl Icahn Releases A Video Everyone Must Watch

I don’t know about you, but I am absolutely fed up with the US Government and Media. It is nice to see someone of Carl Icahn’s statue to come out and put them on the spot. Directly. And wait till you hear what he has to say about our financial markets.

“God knows where this is going. It’s very dangerous and could be disastrous. It’s like a movie theater and somebody yells fire. There is only one little exit door. The exit door is fine when things are OK, but when they yell fire, they can’t get through the exit door…and there’s nobody to buy those junk bonds. Stocks are way overpriced.

I found myself agreeing with 95% of what he had to say and I command him for coming out and speaking his mind. If you participate in financial markets and/or care about what happens in the US, the video below is a MUST watch.

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Carl Icahn Releases A Video That Everyone Must Watch Google

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What You Ought To Know About Everyone Being Too Bearish.

Daily Chart September 28 InvestWithAlex

9/28/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 313 points (-1.92%) and the Nasdaq down 141 points (-3.01%) 

I remember May19th, 2015, the Dow’s actual top, very well. While we were anticipating a top and were shorting, there were no bearish articles to be found. None, zero, zilch. In fact, you couldn’t open a financial terminal without seeing the Dow 20K, 25K, etc…by the end of the year article staring you in the face.

Today, the opposite is true. For instance…..

This is definitely something to pay attention to. Here is what else has me worried.

Most technicians I know, including Elliott Wave followers, expect a double bottom around August 24th low. That would resolve the “untradable” bottom issue I have covered here before, as well as replicate the 2011 sell-off and subsequent bounce structure.

Thereafter, everyone I know expects a massive rally. Either to new all time highs or into a substantial A-B-C bounce (if you are an Elliott Wave follower). And while that sounds good on paper, my problem is precisely that. The market rarely does what everyone expects it to do.

As a result, I have quite a few questions. What if the rally starts sooner? What if we slice through August 24th low and keep going lower. What if the bounce everyone expects doesn’t materialize at all? What if we sit in this trading range for the next 2 years? What if we crash? What if……

Impossible? Right. Just as that Pets.com stock was worth every penny in March of 2000.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 28th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

What You Ought To Know About Everyone Being Too Bearish. Google

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COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 25th, 2015

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of September 22nd, 2015

Currencies: 

  • USD:  2K Long Vs. 48K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
  • Canadian Dollar: 51K Long Vs. 0K Short – Significant long interest remains.
  • British Pound: 56K Long Vs. 9K Short – Slight decrease in net long interest. British pound is remains bullish.
  • Japanese Yen: 72K Long Vs. 7K Short – No changes. Japanese Yen is still bullish.
  • Euro: 92K Long Vs. 18K Short – Slight increase in net short exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
  • Australian Dollar: 92K Long Vs. 1K Short-  Slight decrease in net long position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

  • E-Mini S&P 500: 518K Long Vs. 318K Short – Net neutral position remains. No major changes
  • VIX: 47K Long Vs. 93K Short – Slight decrease in net short position.
  • Gold: 62K Long Vs. 61K Short – No major changes. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral the S&P and Gold. Please note, commercials have substantially increased their net short position in VIX. That could be due to them expecting a market rally and/or us remaining in a trading range. Considering the fact that S&P is neutral, no definitive conclusion can be ascertained at this time in regards to VIX. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

  • Q-3 Earnings
  • Thursday: ISM Manufacturing
  • Friday: Unemployment/Payroll

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COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 25th, 2015 Google

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Shocking Predictions: Here Is What Top Minds In Finance See Happening Next

Daily Chart September 25 InvestWithAlex

9/25/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 112 points (+0.69%) and the Nasdaq down 48 points (-1.01%).

The market is confused at the present moment. There is no other way to put it. Confused about the direction, valuations, the FED, earnings, August’s sell-off, etc….. And while some see it as a buying opportunity of a lifetime and the Dow 20K by the end of the year, others see the early stages of a steep bear market.

My view is very well know here. So, instead of repeating it for the 100th time, let’s look at what some of the others are saying. People you should be listening to….

El-Erian sees ‘once a decade’ opportunity

“If you already have exposure, wait a little bit, there are going to be even more attractive positions—there are still people stuck in those markets looking to get out,” he said. “We’re going to look back on this, and this is going to be a very attractive stage.”

“It’s one of these things that happens once a decade … but be careful because it’s going to be incredibly volatile in the next few months,” he added.

My Comment: He is talking about MSCI Emerging Markets here and I couldn’t agree more. Russia, Brazil, etc… .are being given away when compared to the Western Valuations. I haven’t checked in a while but a few months ago the market cap of Google was larger than the market cap of Russia’s entire market. Such deep value should attract value investors. At the same time, the bottom in these indices are likely to occur at the same time the US Bottoms. Hence, a little bit more patience might be needed.

Shiller: Stocks and housing are overvalued– here’s what to do about it

“The correction in August brought the market down ten percent,” Shiller says. “But it’s halfway back up. It’s still looking pretty frothy.”

My Comment: We are at historic highs in almost all markets and a clear double top in housing. All thanks to the FED and their little liquidity/speculation party. But, all good things eventually come to an end. Sometimes in a violent fashion.

Bill Gross urges Fed to ‘get off zero and get off quick’ on rates

“Zero destroys existing business models such as life insurance company balance sheets and pension funds, which in turn are expected to use the proceeds to pay benefits for an aging boomer society,” Gross said. “These assumed liabilities were based on the assumption that a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds would return 7-8 percent over the long term.”

My Comment: I couldn’t agree more with Bill Gross here, but I don’t think the FED will raise in any meaningful way anytime soon. As I have indicated here so many times before. They cannot, and therefore, they will not. The market might eventually do it for them, but that’s a different story.

Finally, another frank opinion from Carl Icahn. If you participate in financial markets the video below is a must watch.

Carl Icahn and Larry Fink, BlackRock Chairman and CEO discuss the state of today’s financial market.  As a quick summary…..

Carl Icahn: High-yield market is about to blow up (he indicated previously that he has a large short position there or building one). Just as it did in 2007-2009. This will have a net negative impact on the stock market. Just as it did in 2008.

Larry Fink: No way in hell, we don’t have the leverage we had in 2007.

My Comments: I believe Carl Icahn is on the right side of the trade here. The massive amount of leverage Larry Fink dismisses is still there. Its just that a large chunk of it got shifted onto the FED’s balance sheet and the stock market.

Here is what I believe the trigger point will be: As soon as investors lose “net faith” in the FED you will see this whole thing fall apart. Fast. As far as I am concerned they have already lost the window of opportunity to raise interest rates. They will now be stuck in the worst case scenario…..zero interest rates, no way to stimulate as another round of QE can backfire and collapsing capital markets. As soon as investors come to this realization, the jig will be up. And that should happen much sooner than most people anticipate.

Anyway, watch this video. It is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking Prediction: Here Is What Top Minds In Finance See Happening Next Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Some of Murphy’s Laws:

  1. If anything can go wrong, it will.
  2. Nothing is ever as simple as it seems.
  3. Everything takes longer than you expect.
  4. Left to themselves all things go from bad to worse.
  5. Nature always sides with the hidden flaw.
  6. Mother Nature is a bitch.
  7. It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious.
  8. If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
  9. If you can keep your head when, all around you, others are losing theirs, you just don’t understand the situation.
  10. For every human problem, there is a neat, simple solution — and it is always wrong.

Z30

Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

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Caterpillar: Canary In The Coal Mine?

cat

Another earnings season is upon us. Caterpillar (CAT), the bellwether for the global economy, just warned.

In its announcement on Thursday, Caterpillar noted that 2015 would be its third straight year of sales declines. With sales also expected to decline in 2016 to around $48 billion, the company could be looking at its first four-year stretch of sales drops in its 90-year history.

At this juncture Caterpillar’s stock price is down close to 50% from a year ago. The primary question is…..is this just Caterpillar’s problem, due to mismanagement, or is the global economy really falling apart? Plus, will that be evident in Q-3 earnings or will the corporates be able to squeeze out another miracle with the help of accounting and share buybacks?

Well, I think we are about to find out. However, either way you twist it, this is not a good sign. With Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E being the third highest in history, right behind 2000 and 1929 tops, this warning shot doesn’t bode well for the overall stock market.

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