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Is Gold Really Doomed?

Gold Is Doomed InvestWithAlex

It has been a while since we have touched on gold. However, when mainstream media outlets post idiotic gold headlines, headlines that should spark investor attention, it might be time to take another look. Here is what I am talking about…..

The Washington Post: Gold is doomed

When you think about it, a bet on gold is really a bet that the people in charge don’t know what they’re doing. Policymakers missed yesterday’s financial crisis, so maybe they’re missing tomorrow’s inflation, too. That, at least, is what a cavalcade of charlatans, cranks, and armchair economists have been shouting for years now, from the penny ads that run on the bottom of websites…..

Wow….a double whammy there. Not only does the author suggest that most Gold Bugs are idiots, he also suggests that Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen are brilliant economists who not only know what they are doing, they have full control of the US Economy. I might have a big problem with all of the above, but let’s save that for another time.

Back to gold. The sentiment above represents how most investors view gold today. I don’t have to tell you that when “Gold Is Doomed” articles are published, we might be approaching a major turning point and a bottom. I tell you what, if my overall stock market forecast fires off as my mathematical work suggests, you will see gold surging over the next 2-3 years. Due to additional rounds of QE and flight to safety.

The primary question is, where/when is gold’s bottom? That is for you to figure out, but it is likely to coincide with the stock market’s top. And if you would like to get that information, please Click Here.

z32

Is Gold Really Doomed?  Google

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Investment Grin Of The Day

Congress gets kidnapped……..

A driver was stuck in a traffic jam on the highway outside Washington, DC.

Nothing was moving.

Suddenly, a man knocks on the window. The driver rolls down the window and asks, “What’s going on?”

“Terrorists have kidnapped the entire US Congress, and they’re asking for a $100 million dollar ransom. Otherwise, they are going to douse them all in gasoline and set them on fire.

We are going from car to car, collecting donations.”

“How much is everyone giving, on an average?” the driver asks.

The man replies, “Roughly a gallon.”

Z31

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

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COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – July 24th, 2015

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of JULY 21st, 2015

Currencies: 

  • USD:  4K Long Vs. 78K Short – Significant short interest remains. No major changes.
  • Canadian Dollar: 63K Long Vs. 3K Short – Net increase in commercials net long position.
  • British Pound: 45K Long Vs. 31K Short – Remains neutral.
  • Japanese Yen: 132K Long Vs. 36K Short – Net decrease in short interest. A large long position in Yen remains.
  • Euro: 137K Long Vs. 11K Short – Significant long position remains. No changes.
  • Australian Dollar: 126K Long Vs. 1K Short- Significant long position. Slight increase in long position. Massive long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar rally. British pound is neutral. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

  • E-Mini S&P 500: 223K Long Vs. 540K Short – Few changes. A substantial short position remains.
  • VIX: 75K Long Vs. 43K Short – No changes. A substantial long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
  • Gold: 85K Long Vs. 61K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range. 

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

  • Q-2 Earnings.
  • Monday – Durable Goods
  • Wednesday – FED Interest Rate Decision
  • Thursday – GDP Data

Z31

COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – July 24th, 2015 Google

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Shocking: How We Nailed This Week’s Market Top In Both Price & Time

Daily Chart Uly 24 InvestWithAlex

7/24/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 163 points (-0.92%) and the Nasdaq down 58 points (-1.12%).

I hate bragging, but as my friend Donald Trump says, “You Have To”. Earlier in the week my subscription service absolutely nailed the top on the Dow in both Price and Time. Since that point the Dow is down close to 600 points.

Further, if you are confused with this market, you are not alone. We are dealing with a very complex market environment here. A certain structure is about to complete and the market is about to move very fast. Something that my subscribers are very well aware of. If you would like to find out when we hit bottom and what happens next, please Click Here.

And instead of doing my regular weekly update, I will leave you this week with a few charts to consider. Of course, the conclusion you come to is entirely up to you.

The only other time the stock market was this expensive: 1929 and 2000 tech bubble.
PE Ratio

Inflation adjusted S&P: Setting in a double top.

S&P inflation adjusted

Dow Transports Are Not Confirming Higher Highs On The Nasdaq.

Dow Transports 5 investwithalex

NYSE (largest index by capitalization) hasn’t gone anywhere in 13 months. Now breaking below 200 day moving average.

NYSE Chart investwithalex

Massive divergence between collapsing macro data and stock valuations.

Macro Data InvestWithAlex

Smart money is selling while dumb money is buying. 

big investors investwithalex

Margin debt is at an all time high. Too much risk as everyone is too bullish. 

Margin Debt Investwithalex

If we are to repeat the environment when interest rates were this low last time, the S&P would have to lose 50-80% of its value. shiller pe with rates investwithalex

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: How We Nailed This Week’s Market Top In Both Price & Time  Google

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Why Kepler-452b Points To A Bear Market On Earth

new earth

I am sure you have heard by now about NASA’s identification of an Earth like planet. Finding Another Earth What does it have to do with today’s stock market? Quite a bit, allow me to explain……

Most people (75-90%) on this rock think in a linear fashion. For instance, most people still believe that that they are the only “intelligent” species in the Universe. Even though the evidence to the contrary is overwhelming. Consider this….

The discovery of Kepler-452b is not likely to see the public swoon with a collective rendition of Kumbaya. But this Earth 2.0 is a huge if under-appreciated discovery, not because Kepler-452b is unique but for just the opposite reason; there are likely thousands or millions or even billions of such earth-like planets in the universe. The discovery of just one such world is good evidence for many more: after all, we know of 100 billion galaxies each with as many as 300 billion stars (big variation per galaxy). Astronomers estimate that there are about 70 billion trillion stars. Math wizardry is not necessary to conclude we did not by chance find the only other possibly habitable planet among that huge population of stars.

Throw in life at different dimensions and we are now talking about real numbers.

Back to the stock market.  At today’s exuberant valuations levels, about the same amount of people believe that this bull market will continue indefinitely. And that is precisely why they are wrong.

z32

Why Kepler-452b Points To A Bear Market On Earth  Google

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Why Permabears Are Idiots

bear market investwithalex

Even though I am not a permabear, as I participate on the long side just about as much as I do on the short side (when the time is right), bear hate e-mails has been hitting my mailbox in a fairly steady fashion over the last few weeks.

Why? I have no idea, but I am starting to think that the bulls are getting fairly sick and tired of today’s trading range. As you know, most stocks are slightly down from a year ago, as represented by the NYSE, the largest index by capitalization.

For intance, this rant….. Morgan Stanley’s stock-market guru throws shade at the greatest stock-market call of all time

“We all know lots of people who have called 17 of the last zero corrections,” Parker wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Firstly, we aren’t inclined to give them credit when they are finally right.”

“We are nice people, but most of us would have been banished from the money management industry by 2000 if we were bearish the whole way up on [technology, media, and telecom] valuations,” the note said. “Timing matters, and we will continue to monitor the economic, corporate, and credit laundry list to attempt to call the top.”

In the end, Parker said he didn’t see a major market correction coming anytime soon and he was loath to call a top where he didn’t see one forming.

So, let me get this straight. Even if I am right and the stock market drops 30-50% here, I am still an idiot who just got lucky. That’s fine with me, but there quite a few people who would disagree with you at the present time Mr. Parker. Soros, Rogers, Icahn, Faber and the list goes on.

This is important from a psychological perspective because the bulls are getting desperate and angry. They are coming up with unreasonable and dangerous assumptions that the top is nowhere near. Even if it’s already behind us. They are getting ready to hold position until it is TOO LATE to sell. This sort of behavior is typical at market tops. Just be aware of it.

Oh, and one last thing for Mr. Parker. You do realize that the inflation adjusted Dow/S&P are sitting at a break even point from their respective 2000 tops, while the Nasdaq is still down 15%….right? That stands for no real gains over the last 15 years and we are now on a verge of the next bear leg.  This kind of blows are giant hole in your “Bears are Idiots” thesis, doesn’t it.

S&P inflation adjusted

Z30

Why Permabears Are Idiots Google

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What Wall Of Worry Is Everyone Talking About?

Daily Chart Uly 23 InvestWithAlex

7/23/2015 – Another negative day with the Dow Jones down 119 points (-0.69%) and the Nasdaq down 25 points (-0.49%). 

To be hones, I have no idea. Everyone I know, money manager or individual investors, are extremely bullish. And despite numerous bearish divergences or sentiment indicators, the market is sitting a stone throws away from all time highs. Did you see the rally off of July 8th bottom? The Nasdaq just put in a new top. Still, some people don’t get it.

Big-name investors stand atop a welcome ‘wall of worry’

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates, is on the front page of the markets’ newspaper of record turning negative on Chinese stocks, saying there is “no safe place” for clients’ money there. This alarmed – and alarming – message comes mere days after the brilliant billionaire investor Carl Icahn told us all that junk-bond ETFs were a disaster-in-waiting – tinderbox theaters just waiting to ignite and trap their customers.

Earth to bulls, there is no wall of worry. I hope the author realizes that he is talking about Mr. Icahn and Mr. Dalio, not some Joe off the street. This is utter nonsense.

You really want to know why the “smart money” is starting to ring the warning bell?

Wall of worry or not, they clearly understand that the drivers that took this market to bubble level valuations are going away.

For instance, The stock market is disappearing

And as we noted on Tuesday, net flows into US stocks have been relatively flat since 2006, while net issuance, or the amount of new stocks being introduced onto the market, has plummeted. This math, then, indicates that the most recent bull market has been all about reduced share counts.

QE gone. Stock buybacks are slowing down and going away. The Fed is about to increase interest rates. Credit expansion cycle is over and CAPEX is dead in the water. Corporate earnings are slowing down, Apple watches are not selling and “unofficial” economic data points to a severe recession.

Call me stupid, but I don’t see what will drive the stock market up this proposed “wall of worry”. Wall of Jericho might be a better definition here.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 23rd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

What Wall Of Worry Is Everyone Talking About?   Google

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What Does Today’s Stock Market & 50 Cent Have In Common?

50 Cent

……their financial well-being is based on illusion. 

If you haven’t heard, rapper 50 Cent recently filled for bankruptcy. That is a few months after Forbes has estimated his net worth at around $155 Million. 50 Cent: I borrowed my bling and I’m not rich

Questioned by an attorney for the woman, Lastonia Leviston, the musician-actor denied owning many luxury items including expensive cars and flashy jewellery saying he rents, borrows and leases instead. “It’s a borrowed piece of jewellery from the jeweller,” he told Leviston’s lawyer,

I am not sure who said it, but it’s true…..”You never really know how rich someone is until they file for bankruptcy”. 

Anyway, just like 50 Cent’s prosperity was an illusion, so is today’s stock market valuations. Driven by market interventions, QE, zero interest rates, stock buybacks and speculative spirits. Once the tide goes out, and it most certainly will, that simple observation will be in the open for everyone to see. Again.

Z31

What Does Today’s Stock Market & 50 Cent Have In Common?  Google

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Why Carl Icahn Believes The Market Is About To Crash

Soros Fund has a large short position. Just a few weeks ago, Jim Rogers said the following Jim Rogers: Major Correction Ahead…Central Banks To Panic. Now, Carl Icahn is warning people that we are once again at 2000 and 2007 tops.

“What is better…..making 1-2% or losing 30% as people did in 2008? Right now is extremely dangerous.”

Forget about my line of thinking here for a second. Who else do you need to tell you that we are in a massive bubble and that a big correction is coming. Warren Buffett? Actually, WSJ ‘Buffett Indicator’ Flashes Warning for Stocks

Anyway, if you are sick and tired of your typical Wall Street analysis…… “We are in the early stages of a secular bull market and right now is a buying opportunity of a lifetime”, do yourself a favor and watch the video below.

z33

Why Carl Icahn Believes The Market Is About To Crash Google

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Why You Should Not Laugh At Marc Faber

Daily Chart Uly 22 InvestWithAlex

7/22/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 69 points (-0.39%) and the Nasdaq down 36 points (-0.70%) 

Instead of repeating myself here for the 100th time, I will let Marc Faber tell you exactly the same thing. I agree 100% in terms of deflation, stock market, asset prices, expectations, Asia, Greek Ponzi finance, etc…. It is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 22nd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why You Should Not Laugh At Marc Faber  Google