Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Carl Icahn: We Are At 2007 Top Right NOW. Extremely Dangerous Time.
Soros Fund has a large short position. Just a few days ago, Jim Rogers said the following Jim Rogers: Major Correction Ahead…Central Banks To Panic. Now, Carl Icahn is warning people that we are once again at 2000 and 2007 tops.
“What is better…..making 1-2% or losing 30% as people did in 2008? Right now is extremely dangerous.”
Forget about my line of thinking here for a second. Who else do you need to tell you that we are in a massive bubble and that a big correction is coming. Warren Buffett?
Anyway, if you are sick and tired of your typical Wall Street analysis…… “We are in the early stages of a secular bull market and right now is a buying opportunity of a lifetime”, do yourself a favor and watch the video below.
Carl Icahn: We Are At 2007 Top Right NOW. Extremely Dangerous Time. Google
Why The Bullish Case is Full Of Holes
6/24/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 177 points (-0.98%) and the Nasdaq down 38 points (0.73%)
I often present you with a bearish side of the market analysis. If for no other reason than that’s what my mathematical work indicates. With that in mind, it might be time to check on the bullish side of the story. David Rosenberg presents a good argument here 6 Reasons to Seek More Gains in Stock Market
Let’s look at them one by one, my comments are in green:
- Resilience: “It bends but refuses to break. It has now been 1,350 days since the last major correction in the S&P 500. There is still plenty of room to run considering we had stretches of 2,500 days between 1990 and 1197 and 1,600 days from 2003 to 2007.” A correction is a decline of 10 percent from a market peak.
- “It refuses to break for now”. That in itself doesn’t mean anything. It can as easily breakdown tomorrow. 1990-1997 – we were in a secular bull market. We are still in a cyclical bear market today. 2002-2007 move up was exactly 1250 trading days. I am not sure where he got his 1600 figure.
- Monetary Policy: “By the time the Fed starts to tighten, we are typically only one-third of the way through the market cycle. And the markets don’t even believe we are that close to the first rate hike anymore.” Fed Funds futures show that investors place a 17 percent chance of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, and 52 percent likelihood in December.
- We are not in a “typical environment”. The FED went all in between 2009-today. We have never seen such a market environment before. I have said it before and I will say it again, interest rates are now irrelevant. The market will correct with or without rate hikes.
- Cyclical Gainers: “Market leadership is in the sectors that are very much pro-cyclical – consumer discretionary, banks, technology, more recently the homebuilders and the small-cap stocks.” The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks has gained 6.6 percent this year, outpacing bigger companies.
- There is yet another explanation for the Russell/Nasdaq. We are in a highly speculative bubble and they are setting their respective blow off tops. We saw this very same behavior at 2000 top
- Investor Sentiment: “Sentiment remains very poor which is a contrary positive.” Rosenberg cited several indicators of investor bearishness which could set up the market for a massive short squeeze.
- I am not seeing this. Most bears I know have capitulated. VIX/VXX are at the bottom of their respective trading ranges. If anything, everyone I talk to expects this market to go up. Personally, I have found sentiment readings to be a waste of time. They rarely predict anything.
- Economy: “There has never been a bear market without there being a recession. The leading indicators are behaving in a very early-cycle manner, even with this expansion celebrating its sixth anniversary.” He said the current industries with the most momentum, housing and autos, usually do well 40 percent of the way through a typical business cycle.
- We are not in a business cycle. We are in a credit cycle. That’s why we haven’t seen CAPEX. Plus, its the stock market that leads the economy and not the other way around. Take a look at the chart below. Enough said.
- Relative Value: “Valuation support is also coming from the bond market as yields have retreated from the recent highs of 2.5 percent to 2.27 percent.”
- You kidding….right? What if tomorrow yields go back to 2.5? No more support? Plus, must I remind everyone that Shillers P/E is a third highest level since 2000 and 1929 tops.
At the end of the day we can argue until Greece finally decided to “default” on where we are in the market cycle. I will leave you with this thought. Math doesn’t lie and opinions are dime a dozen. That is to say, my mathematical and timing work is clear in suggesting that a massive bear market is right ahead of us.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 24th 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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The Stock Market’s #1 Job Is To…..
……..confuse as many people at once as possible. Bulls, bears, Janet Yellen, Cramer, Mr. Obama and everyone else in between.
The chart above is as clear as night and day. Despite this range bound market, institutions and hedge funds (arguably the smart money) have been dumping at the fastest pace since 2008. Plus, there is a massive commercial short interest in the E-mini S&P contracts and a massive long position in VIX. As per our weekend COT updates.
Yet, the market remains at elevated range bound levels…..why?
For two reasons. First, it continues to accumulate energy for a big move ahead. Second, it is trying to confuse as many people as possible. I am getting first hand evidence that numerous bears are beginning to capitulate. At the same time, most bulls have never had their hopes higher.
In other words, the market might be Flushing out the bears before crushing the bulls
You know, that’s quite a reasonable explanation from my vantage point.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Goldman Warns: Liquidity Can Quickly Become A Big Problem
We have talked about today’s lack of liquidity before. For instance, The FED To Investors: Expect Panic And Illiquidity and Top Hedge Fund Manager: No Liquidity, Stock Market Shock Is Imminent.
Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president and chief operating officer is warning about liquidity as well. Although his view comes from a different angle, the outcome will be the same. That is precisely what has caused the 1987 crash. Watch the video below and decide for yourself.
I am maintaining my view for now. Should the market go through a rapid 15-20% correction, you will see any remaining liquidity vanish overnight. Leading to a possible flash crash. You can thank the FED for that.
Goldman Warns: Liquidity Can Quickly Become A Big Problem Google
Not That We Need Another Bearish Sign, But…..
6/23/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 25 points (+0.14%) and the Nasdaq up 6 points (+0.12%).
A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming soon. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here.
We all know that the largest stock index by capitalization, the NYSE, hasn’t moved an inch in 11.5 months. Now, Mark Hurbert brings out an important point
Here’s one bear market sign you’ve never seen before
That’s because the degree to which stocks move together in unison is a function of the market cycle. In bear markets the vast majority of stocks do so, whereas in bull markets stocks tend to march to the beat of their own drummer. It’s at market tops, therefore, when stocks’ moves in step with the overall market tend to be at the lowest point.
Such as it is now. Last week, even as the broad market averages rose to within shouting distance of their all-time highs and some secondary averages actually did so, just 7.2% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange hit new 52-week highs. A slightly greater percentage of stocks — 7.3% — hit new 52-week lows.
That is excellent and precisely correct. It is only a “stock pickers market” until, as Mike Tyson puts in, a bear market punches you in the mouth.
Here is something to consider. During a typical bear market about 60-70% of all stocks decline, 15% stay flat and about 15% advance. When we have severe bear market sell-offs, as we did in 2007-2009, about 80% of all stocks decline, 10% stay flat and about 10% exhibit some sort of an advance.
Point being, it is pointless to pick stocks at market tops. Particularly today. Everything is overvalued and the chances of you finding that winning stock is 1 in 10. And even if you do, it is unlikely to go up very much. Stocks should be picked at the bottom of the market cycle, not the top. That’s when you find future 10 Baggers at giveaway prices.
At the top, everything should be sold and moved into cash. Better yet, invested in bear funds with a proven track record. The fact that today’s investment advisers promote stock picking is yet another sign that the top might be near.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 23rd 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Bionic Eyes & Superhuman Vision
I find this fascinating.
The 8 Minute Surgery That Will Give You Superhuman Vision. Forever
A new bionic eye lens currently in development would give humans 3x 20/20 vision, at any age.
The lens, named the Ocumetics Bionic Lens, was developed by Dr. Garth Webb, an optometrist in British Columbia who was looking for a way to optimize eyesight regardless of a person’s health or age.“This is vision enhancement that the world has never seen before,” he says, “If you can just barely see the clock at 10 feet, when you get the Bionic Lens you can see the clock at 30 feet away.“
Keep your eyes open for this product. If approved, it will be a massive money maker. And while not yet a public company, it might be acquired by one before the sales kick in.
From Russia With Hate
Since the CIA sponsored coup in Ukraine over 1.5 years ago, I have maintained that a new cold war with Russia has started. A cold war that will eventually transition into a bloody war that will wipe us all out. Thus far, Russia and Putin have been crucified by the western media. However, if you have an ounce of common sense, let me ask you something after you read this……
NATO plans 40,000-strong rapid response spearhead force in E. Europe
NATO’s rapid response Spearhead Force in Europe might reach 40,000 troops, a tenfold growth from the initial 4,000-strong force deployed last year, the military alliance’s chief said. Most of these troops will be stationed near Russian borders.
Maybe I am stupid or something, but what is a 40K strong NATO force doing on the Russian border? Last time I checked, Russia wasn’t even remotely interested in invading Europe. Doesn’t “Spearhead” itself have an invasionary force connotation, not a defensive one. What’s going on here, is NATO trying to invade Russia and start a massive war?
Just imagine what would happen if a 40K strong Russian or Chinese army assembled itself in Tijuana. Which brings us to……
A new look at how Russians view Russia and the West
The same was outlined here over a year ago. 60-80% of Russians love Putin while 81% see the US in an unfavorable light. Why? That tends to happen when the West wages an all out economic warfare against Russia. Who cares? You should. Should NATO step foot in Ukraine, we might all unwillingly participate in WW3.
Shocking: No Capital Gains Over The Next 50 Years?
6/22/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 107 points (+0.59%) and the Nasdaq up 37 points (0.72%).
Let me ask you a question. If someone from the future approached you on October 10th, 2007 and outlined the next 7-8 years within the stock market, what would you do? Would you….
- Completely ignore the 2007-2009 sell-off because the market would eventually make up all of the losses and then push higher within the next 7 years -OR-
- Pawn your left kidney, sell your firstborn and then buy every put option you could afford in anticipation of a 2007-2009 decline. Only to repeat the process at 2009 bottom with call options.
Well, I don’t think there a doubt that most people would go ahead with option B. Unless they have few screws missing and/or too lazy to get their broker on the phone.
Why am I bringing this up?
I am beginning to see quite a few “What’s The Big Deal” Or “What’s the Worst Case Scenario” articles being propagated by the mainstream financial media. For instance, The worst case if you invest in a hot stock market
Worst case scenario: In nearly 90 years of market history, if you bought stocks on the absolute worst day, the average time to make your money back was 3 years. That’s less time than it takes most people to get through high school or college. It’s doable. It shouldn’t make you shy away from investing in stocks.
“Obviously, to live through that is painful,” says Valeri, an investment strategist. “But when you think about what you’re investing for — and for most people it’s at least 10 or 20 years out — you will get past that.”
They all come to the same conclusion. Even though the stock market is overvalued, do not worry and keep buying, your investment will eventually appreciate. Perhaps.
Just 90 years? I have the Dow chart going all the way back to the first day of trading. May 19th, 1790 or 225 year. Let me tell you something. There have been quite a few periods of 50 years or more when stocks haven’t gone anywhere.
For example, the stock market hasn’t really gone anywhere between 1790 and 1860. A 70 year period of time. Sure, there were bull and bear markets, but no net capital gains. Then, if you went long in 1899, you didn’t see any “net inflation adjusted” gains until 1951.
So, what is the risk going long today, at the 3rd highest level of valuations in the history of the market (behind 1929 and 2000 tops)? Umm, I don’t know, but I would imagine there is quite a bit of risk associated with such a stupid proposition.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 22nd, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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