6/19/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 103 points (-0.57%) and the Nasdaq down 16 points (-0.31%)
In two weeks time, the NYSE (largest composite by capitalization) will mark a 1-year trading range anniversary. In other words, while there have been some net positive sectors(mostly specs), the overall stock market hasn’t gone anywhere in close to a year. And quite a few sectors are selling off.
Further, with VIX/VXX being where they are, most traders and investors find themselves in a very deep slumber. At exactly the wrong time. As I have mentioned here before, the market is accumulating energy, and once released, most investors will be caught with their pants down. As always. That is to say, a massive amount of volatility will come back into the market at some point this year. If you would like to find out exactly when that will happen, to the day, please Click Here.
Now, let’s see what’s trending.
As was mentioned above, don’t confuse today’s strength with the market’s resilience or being able to avoid a potentially explosive situation. It is all about timing and sequencing. As my subscribers very well know, the market is in the process of completing a certain structure. When that period of low volatility ends, things will turn on a dime.
And no matter what the fundamental situation is at the time. We will see if these same traders will be able to say “It just doesn’t matter” then. For now, we wait.
We have beaten this topic to death over the last few months, but it is important to keep it in the back of your mind.
“High grade credit funds suffered their biggest outflow this year, and double the previous week (and also the biggest since June 2013). High yield outflows also jumped to $1.1bn, the biggest since the start of the year. However, government bond funds suffered the most amid the recent spike in volatility, with outflows surging to the highest weekly number on record ($2.7bn). This brings the total outflow from fixed income funds to almost $6bn over the last week, the highest since the Taper Tantrum and the third highest outflow ever.”
There are two things to consider here. First, if the FED if unwilling to raise rates, the bond market might do it for them. Either way, it’s bad news for the stock market.
Second, there is very little liquidity in both the bond market and the stock market. I am hearing it directly from friends who have large individual stock positions. It is taking them a long time to liquidate their stakes without impacting the price. Meaning, should the market accelerate to the downside, let’s say a 10-15% move down, we are likely to see panic and acceleration. Be aware of that.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 18th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Earth To Bulls: No Capital Gains Over The Last 12 Months. Google
