Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Is The Black Swan Of Wars Event Coming Soon?
Those who really know me are puzzled by my nuclear WW 3 prediction I first published last year. Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why (Full Report)
I often hear something to the tune of “Alex, you are the most positive, optimistic and high energy guy we know, why are you bringing up this depressing nonsense. This war will never occur….have you lost your mind?”
Well, the prediction above has nothing to do with how I personally feel and has everything to do with what my advanced mathematical and timing work shows. Perhaps Nassim Taleb can illustrate the same concept from a different angle.
Nassim Taleb: World is NOT more peaceful
Mr. Taleb hits the nail on the head. If most people believe we are living in a more peaceful time where a large scale nuclear war is impossible, well, they are living in a fantasy land. If anything, the risk for such a war has gone up exponentially. All it takes at this time is one idiot in either Washington, Moscow or Beijing. Unfortunately for all us, such species tend to congregate at those locations.
Happy Birthday Mr. Market…225 Years Old!!!
5/19/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 14 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 9 points (-0.19%)
Not many people know this, but the American stock market started trading on May 19th, 1790. Exactly 225 years ago. Back then there was no Dow Jones and from what I have read, people traded stocks over a barrel. Literally. Although I have a chart going all the way back to the point of origin. An important thing to have if you wish to figure out the rate of vibration in any given market.
And while we live in a totally different world now, one primary driver remains fully intact. Human psychology. Regardless of what the FED does, we will always have cycles of boom and bust. If anything, the FED magnifies them.
Today is a perfect example of just that. The US Economic and macro data is collapsing, corporate earnings are decelerating and the stock market is sitting at an all time high. Margin debt is breaking out, people are not hedging and bullish sentiment is as high as it was at 2000 and 2007 tops.
- Thomas Lee: Wall Street’s record run far from over
- A stock market top is likely near as investors fail to hedge
Sounds like a perfect recipe for a disaster to me. Most people I talk to can’t even fathom a 10% correction here, let alone a full blown bear market leg. Yet, that is precisely what we will get later on this year. The question is, are you ready for it?
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 19th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Why Linear Stock Market Projections Don’t Work
The picture above gives you a much better idea of how the stock market works in multi-dimensional space. Although we are still restricted by trying to illustrate it in a 3-D environment.
Human beings are fairly simplistic animals. We tend to take today’s environment and perpetuate it well into the future. Allow me give you two quick examples to drive the point home.
- 6 Year Bull Market – most investors assume that it will continue for the foreseeable future.
- The market has been stuck in a tight trading range over the last 10 months –Goldman: Market’s going nowhere for a year My question is, where was Goldman Sachs predicting this 10 months ago?
This sort of a linear thinking doesn’t work and that is precisely why most investors get into trouble. Nature doesn’t work in such a simple fashion. Everything in nature, including our cells, oscillate at a certain rate of vibration. In other words, the stock market will top out and reverse at a predetermined mathematical point of force. NOT when most people expect it to.
A Different Look At The Market – Guest Post
Asian markets traded broadly higher this week while traded sharply lower – with a mixed bag in other markets, and here’s a reminder from previous week’s;
As our Fund Managers are aware, our proprietary trend signal analytic triggered BULLISH for the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) all the way back on July 28, 2014 – and have remained that way ever since. Our initial upside targets suggested a minimum move into the 3850-4350 range and now those levels have been achieved there is no reason why this index can’t go all the way back to the 6000 level – last seen in 2007!.
This index has now gained over 100% since our BULLISH trend signal triggered back in July last year. The question is now is – what next?.
As usual however, we will always be guided by our objective and accurate trend models
4 Important Intermediate FX Trend Changes This Past Week!… Weekend Currency Forecast
Our current Elliott wave count labeling is that some longer-term trending moves are either complete or very close to complete – however what those Elliott wave counts do not tell us is precisely when they have finished and when new reversal trends are beginning.
Fortunately our proprietary trend analytic will do this job for us – and as we have always done, as soon as anything important changes we’ll immediately email our Hedge Fund clients.
From July 2014, and as our proprietary trend analytic models have triggered new intermediate trend signals, 6 major currencies have now accumulated a staggering total of pips based on those trend signals and they are still going.
And so while a case be made in each case from an Elliott wave count labeling perspective that important turning points are upon us, it is also more important to remember that for each of these major currencies there remains no bearish technical evidence at this time that supports the turning point case for any of the major currencies. Simple.
The day will inevitably come when important multi-month lows (or highs) are technically confirmed by our trend signal analytic – but until that day arrives the status quo remains.
Post By: Mark Ackerman: A Financial Engineer,Brilliant Wharton Graduate Using Elliot Wave Principle Fractals and Fibbs as well as Quant Models for analysis of different 18 Asset Classes, 35 years of trading experience.Click Here To Learn More
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Are You Smarter Than John D. Rockeffeller?
I know I am not and I highly doubt that most investors out there today are either. Let me tell you a cool story.
The Dow set a secondary bottom in early May of 1924 and then went on a rampage bull market that terminated on September 3rd, 1929 (exact top). Thereafter, the Dow distributed for 6 weeks before initiating its crash sequence on October 24, 1929. By November 13th, 1929 the Dow was down 49%. A devastating collapse.
Now, I know what you are thinking. “People were kind of dumb back then. The market was clearly in a speculative bubble and even a monkey with half a brain could have seen the 1929 crash coming from a mile away”. WRONG. Human nature never changes. Case and point, I present to you probably the smartest and the wealthiest businessman who ever lived, Mr. John D. Rockeffeller (his net worth was over $200 Billion in today’s money).
October 30, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has one of its best days ever, rocketing up 29 points, or 12.3%, to 258 as John D. Rockefeller, Sr. announces: “There is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week. My son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.” The Dow goes on to lose 84.1% more of its value before bottoming out on July 8, 1932.
I think his quote speaks for itself. Just as in 1929, 99.99% of people today are not aware of where we are. Back to 2015. I have already beaten the fundamental/economic/market horse and today’s stock market overvaluation/speculation levels to death. Both, in my daily blog and in my weekly updates. The only remaining question is, are you ready for a big market sell-off when it comes? If you would like to find out when that happens, please Click Here
Will “Sell In May” Fire Off This Year
5/18/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 25 points (+0.14%) and the Nasdaq up 30 points (+0.60%).
“Sell in May and go away” is one of those well know Wall Street “truths”. Unfortunately, it didn’t work last year. Instead, the market had a fairly good rally between May 21st and July 17th of 2014. Will it work this year? Let’s take a look.
35 months. That’s about how long it’s been since the market pulled back at least 10%, which is an eyebrow-raising stretch of time. Take a look at the market each year going back to 1980 and you’ll find that the S&P 500 has averaged an intra-year drop of a little over 14%. Yet, here we are approaching three full years of a largely uninterrupted climb.
With the stock market trading at or near all-time highs, the chief U.S. equity strategist Deutsche Bank said Friday he would not chase this rally.
Today, most investors are fast asleep. They shouldn’t be. The market is at its utmost dangerous when most people don’t anticipate a correction. Which is the case today.
As I have illustrated here so many times before, most investors are overwhelmingly bullish. Even though the stock market hasn’t gone anywhere since July of 2014 (NYSE). Further, we have faced a similar market setup/situation last summer. Range bound market, compressing wedge, everyone was fast asleep, etc… That was followed by July and September/October corrections.
Think of today’s trading range as if Mr. Market is accumulating energy for its next move higher or lower. Just as if a spring was compressed and then let go. So, will the market breakout to new all time highs or are we on verge of a big sell-off? I believe we will soon find out. One thing is certain, this period of low volatility is coming to an end.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 18th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
No Stock Market Bubble, At Least Not Yet
BlackRock’s global chief investment strategist, Russ Koesterich, believes there is no bubble.
“The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is about 17.5 times, which Koesterich pointed out is a “bit above the average.” But he said, “When you take into account … a low inflation environment and you’ve got a low [interest] rate environment, that’s probably in the right vicinity. It’s a bit stretched, but I don’t think it’s a bubble.”
Fair enough, but there a few things to consider here. First, I am not sure where he is getting his 17.5 number. TTM (trailing) P/E ratio = 20.4 while Shiller’s P/E ratio = 27.5. Shiller’s adjusted P/E is a much better measure. Further, as we have indicated here so many times before, earnings are expected to decline over the next twelve months. Making today’s P/E even more outrageous. Just look at the chart above.
Second, many money managers believe that we must have either a blow off top or be in a massive bubble for a bear market to start. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is not a requirement. In other words, those who anticipate much higher markets based on the premise above, might pay dearly for it.
