One of the coolest videos I have seen in a while. Two lessons there. 1. Never give up on your dreams and 2. We should all book a ticket to Dubai
.
Should The Rich Be Allowed To Live Longer?
Most Americans can agree at least on one thing. Our entire healthcare system is beyond repair. Not in terms of quality and associated technologies, which are by far the best in the world, but due to a sheer wastage/cost of our insurance based system.
And with new technologies and drugs coming onto the market at increasingly unbelievable prices, costs only the rich will be able to afford, an important question arises. Should the rich be allowed to live longer, perhaps twice as long as the rest of the populace?
There is no question that our lifespans have increased dramatically, as a whole, over the last 200 or so years. Yet, should the ruling class have the ability to live 200-500 years while the rest die? I don’t have the answer to that, but it is definitely something worth thinking about.
What You Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market
5/12/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 37 points (-0.20%) and the Nasdaq down 17 points (-0.35%).
Over the last few weeks I have suggested that today’s short setup is about as ideal as the long setup was at 2009 bottom. Hence, short sellers should be thankful for such high prices.
Bill Gross introduces the same idea, but in the bond market Bill Gross’s ‘Short of a Lifetime’ Would Mean Armageddon (watch the video, it’s worth your time).
“It’s Just A Matter Of Time”
While the conversation in the link above has to do with zero yielding German bonds, the same line of thinking should apply to the US Treasury market. At some point “follow the FED” trade will fail and the yields will surge. And while I don’t think we are there yet, it is just a matter of time. As a result, my forecast remains, 10-Year Treasury note will see a double bottom at 1.4-1.5% over the next two years before this 30 year bull run in yields is over.
When it comes to the stock market, “short equity” setup we are facing today is about as ideal as it was at 2000 and 2007 tops. Very limited upside or risk (if any) and massive downside. In other words, long-term investors should heed the lessons of two previous market tops. And instead of trying to figure out how many more years this secular bull market has left (hint: we are still in a secular bear market that started in 2000), they should seriously consider shifting their portfolios to the short side or cash.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 12th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
What You Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market Google
Why The Smart Money Is Betting On Surge In Volatility
VIX/VXX continue to trade at the bottom of their respective trading ranges. Over the last few weeks our podcast discussed how commercials are building a massive long position in volatility. They might not be the only ones.
Almost $100 Million of VIX Options Traded Hands in a Split Second Today
Is someone hedging or are they simply building a massive long position in volatility? While we won’t know for sure, here is what we do know.
- The stock market has been stuck in a fairly tight trading range over the last 10 months (NYSE). Even more so over the last 5 months. Driving volatility lower.
- Most stocks are selling at dizzying valuation levels.
Both are temporary. In other words, longer-term, someone is making a smart bet by accumulating volatility (VIX/VXX) at or near today’s levels. Once a bear market kicks in and we break out of this trading range, volatility should skyrocket. If you would like to find out exactly when we anticipate that to happen, please Click Here.
Why The Smart Money Is Betting On Surge In Volatility Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
“I was convinced that I was totally incompetent in predicting market prices – but that others were generally incompetent also but did not know it, or did not know they were taking massive risks. Most traders were just “picking pennies in front of a steamroller,” exposing themselves to the high-impact rare event yet sleeping like babies, unaware of it.”
― Nassem Nicholas Taleb
Just To Reach Historical Norms The S&P Must Fall 50%
John Hussman, president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, believes the S&P 500 stock index would have to fall by 55 percent to reach historical norms.
“The notion that equity valuations cannot, or will not, revisit normal run-of-the-mill prospective returns (or better) in the coming decade has utterly no support in the historical record. We made similarly ‘preposterous’ but ultimately accurate statements in 2000 and 2007 about the size of the market loss that would likely complete the cycle”.
John is absolutely right and you can see the same from the chart above. The average P/E ratio oscillated around 15 over the last 120 years. And that would indeed warrant close to a 50% haircut from today’s levels.
Impossible? Here is a fun fact. Did you know that between 1899 and 1949, a 50 year period of time, the Dow barely moved. In nominal terms it gained approximately 2% a year. Inflation adjusted, it lost over 25% of its value. The same occurred between 1790 and 1860.
Any notion that we are in some sort of a new economic/financial reality is a foolish one. The stock market is in a massive bubble and it will decline substantially over the next two years. As per our mathematical and timing work. Click Here
Market Crash In 2016….Why Wait?
5/11/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 86 points (-0.47%) and the Nasdaq down 10 points (-0.20%).
A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here.
Over the last few months a few analysts suggested that a bear market and a possible crash will occur in 2016. Something to do with the presidential cycle, the need to have a blow off top and increased gravitational forces in Andromeda Galaxy. For instance, Analyst Says Bull Market Will Not End With Top Tech Stocks So Cheap.
Excuse my ignorance, but why exactly is it impossible for us to have a large scale decline, maybe even a crash, in 2015?
Personal preferences and wishful thinking aside, here is our current setup…..
- Extreme overvaluations in most sectors of the stock market.
- Outright bubbles in Tech and Biotech.
- An adjusted P/E ratio above 1929, 1937, 1966, 1987, 2007, etc…. tops. Only 2000 top was higher, due to the lack of earnings in the tech sector at that time.
- The FED is about to raise interest rates.
- Any remaining QE velocity is quickly dissipating.
- Macroeconomic data is collapsing (previous charts).
- The US Economy is on a verge of an official recession. Q1 growth of 0.2%. Inventory build up saved the GDP from going negative.
- Earnings growth estimates are accelerating down (previous charts).
- We are still in a secular bear market.
- 10 Months of market distribution. (NYSE since July of 2014)
- Extreme bullish sentiment.
- Margin debt is at an all time high.
- Fund outflows continue to accelerate (weekend update).
- Etc….
I am sure I have missed quite a few points, but you get the idea. Sounds like a perfect recipe for a disaster to me. The best part is, I don’t think we have to wait until 2016.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 11th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Alibaba (BABA): More Money Than Brains?
When Alibaba (BABA) went public on September 19th, it marked an important top. Large October sell-off started the following day. On that day I commented on how ridiculously overpriced and over hyped Alibaba was. Alibaba Stupidity. I continue to maintain this view today.
And while Alibaba (BABA) is down 25% since its top in mid November, I believe the party to the downside is just getting started. If you haven’t noticed, Alibaba is trying incredibly hard to spend its IPO money as fast as they can. What are they doing with this money? Investing in other highly speculative and overpriced Internet business. Case and point…
-
Alibaba ploughs $200 million into Snapchat in latest startup deal: source
-
Zulily shares soar as Alibaba buys stake in online retailer
Alibaba is clearly suffering from a severe case of “More money than brains”. Typically, when bear markets kick in (something that is about to happen), such overextended and overvalued companies, particularly the high tech IPOs, tend to collapse 60-90%. In other words, if you have patience, Alibaba (BABA) is one juicy short here.
Investment Grin Of The Day
Russia And China Prepare For War Vs. The US/NATO
Over the weekend Russia celebrated its victory day over Nazi Germany in World War 2. Roll Independence Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas into one and you will have a fairly good idea of how important this day is for the Russian people. Were the former allies, the US/U.K, there to help mark this historic day? Of course not. Instead, western media spent half the weekend making fun of a Russian tank that apparently broke down or just stopped for a coffee break. The CIA is still unclear on that one.
Guess who was there? That’s right, China.
- Something’s brewing in Central Asia and the West ‘needs to take this seriously’
- Russia And China Are Becoming Best Friends
- The Washington Post: Don’t forget how the Soviet Union saved the world from Hitler
So, what’s the big deal? First, Russia sees that as yet another slap in the face from the West. If you are history buff, as I am, you would agree that the World War 2 was won in Stalingrad when Germany’s 6th army was destroyed. That was the turning point and not the D-day invasion that happened 1.5 years later.
Most importantly, as I initially outlined in my report (now book) close to two years ago, Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon.When, How & Why, Russia and China are coming closer together to form an eventual military alliance. That is to say, the things that I have predicted at that time continue to align. But don’t freak out just yet. We still have another 15 years before the war starts. Enjoy it.