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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

jesse_livermore investwithalex“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

“It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many traders who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. Traders who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”

Jesse Livermore

z32

Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

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Stock Market Complacency Hits An All Time High

Gone are the days when the stock market actually oscillated. Thanks to the FED and their little liquidity party, we have been in a narrow upward slopping channel for over 6 years now. Is the party about to end?

Well, as the video above pertains, very few people think so. VIX/VXX are close to their respective all time lows, there is a lot of complacency, most believe that we are in a secular bull market that has at least 10 years left, etc….. At the same time Put Option Cost At An All Time High, Crash Coming?

But don’t despair just yet.

According to the same video, get this, the party is not even close to being over. Why? Because we haven’t seen the speculative blow off typically associated with market tops. That is to say, most money managers believe it still OK to speculate away. Preferably on margin. I wish them luck.

Z30

Stock Market Complacency Hits An All Time High  Google

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Coming Soon: Trade Of The Decade?

Daily Chart April 22 2015

4/22/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 88 points (+0.49%) and the Nasdaq up 21 points (+0.42%) 

In last night’s daily update I have suggested that today’s short setup is about as ideal as the long setup was at 2009 bottom. Hence, short sellers should be thankful for such high prices.

Bill Gross introduces the same idea, but in the bond market Bill Gross’s ‘Short of a Lifetime’ Would Mean Armageddon (watch the video, it’s worth your time).

“It’s Just A Matter Of Time”

While the conversation in the link above has to do with zero yielding German bonds, the same line of thinking should apply to the US Treasury market. At some point “follow the FED” trade will fail and the yields will surge. And while I don’t think we are there yet, it is just a matter of time. As a result, my forecast remains, 10-Year Treasury note will see a double bottom at 1.4-1.5% over the next two years before this 30 year bull run in yields is over.

When it comes to the stock market, “short equity” setup we are facing today is about as ideal as it was at 2000 and 2007 tops. Very limited upside or risk (if any) and massive downside. In other words, long-term investors should heed the lessons of two previous market tops. And instead of trying to figure out how many more years this secular bull market has left (hint: we are still in a secular bear market that started in 2000), they should seriously consider shifting their portfolios to the short side or cash.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 22nd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Coming Soon: Trade Of The Decade  Google

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Japan Humiliates Amtrak

I love trains. I am not entirely sure why, but they fascinate me. A few days ago Japan’s maglev train set a new world record at 603 KMP or 373 MPH. Watch the amazing video of their attempt below.  Meanwhile, Amtrak is expected to crack 100 mph by the year 2075.

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Japan Humiliates Amtrack Google

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Investment Grin Of The Day

Three yogis were eating their lunch on the seventeenth-floor girder of a new skyscraper. They were working on their bodies, talking about it continuously, discovering new mysteries. “Wow,” said the second man, who was new. “I see why you guys like to eat your lunch here. The view of the city is beautiful!”

“Yes, the view is nice,” said the first man. “But do you want to know why we really like to eat lunch here?” “Yes,” said the new yogi. “Well,” explained the first, “there’s the most incredible updraft right at the fourth floor, and when we finish lunch we like to jump off and ride back up on that air current. It puts you right back on the very spot you jumped from.”

“Bullshit!” said the second man. “I don’t believe you.”

“You don’t?” said the first, putting down his coffee thermos. “Then I’ll show you.” He jumped. Down he went, and sure enough, right at the fourth floor — whoosh! He was turned back and landed on the seventeenth-floor girder on the exact spot from which he had leaped.

“Wow!” said the second man in total amazement. “That beats the hell out of hanggliding or anything! Let me do it next!”

He stood up and jumped. Down he went — then fourth floor, third floor, second floor… splat! All over the sidewalk! Finished!

Back up on the seventeenth floor, the third man, who had been silent until now, turned to the first and said, “You know, Superman, sometimes you’re a real prick!”

Z31

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

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How Broke Is The USA? This Will Shock You

broke

Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff did not hold back in his Senate Budget Committee testimony, “The first point I want to get across is that our nation is broke. Our nation is broke, and it’s not broke in 75 years or 50 years or 25 years or 10 years. It’s broke today.” He goes on to point out…

  • Indeed, it may well be in worse fiscal shape than any developed country, including Greece
  • This declaration of national insolvency will, no doubt, shock those of you who use the officially reported federal debt as the measuring stick for what our country owes
  • We have a $210 trillion fiscal gap at this point,” Kotlikoff told the senators, which amounts to 211 percent of the U.S.’ $18.2 trillion GDP, making it higher than Greece’s 175 percent debt-to-GDP ratio
  • 16 times larger than official U.S. debt, which indicates precisely how useless official debt is for understanding our nation’s true fiscal position
  • Stated differently, the overall federal government is 58 percent underfinanced.

And so on and so forth. You get the picture. The US will never be able to repay 25% of its obligations, let alone all of it. This leads to a few possible outcomes. An outright default, war and/or currency debasement/hyperinflation.  I wonder which option the fools in our government will choose.

Z31

How Broke Is The USA? This Will Shock You Google

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Why Short Sellers Should Be Thanking GOD

Daily Chart April 21A 2015

4/21/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 85 points (-0.47%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.39%)

Short sellers, repeat after me….

  • An opportunity to short Netflix (NFLX) at $570? Thank you Jesus (or whoever you pray to).
  • An opportunity to short Biotech (IBB) at $364?  Praise the Lord.
  • The Nasdaq is at 5,000…… Hallelujah.

On a more serious note, once in the while the stock market does something so utterly stupid, it takes your breath away.  What am I talking about? Today’s divergence between fundamental/macro data and the market’s bubble valuation levels. I wrote about it earlier Why The FED Has No Clue. Yet, despite this apparent ideal short trade setup, it’s not as easy as it sounds.

For short-sellers in U.S. stocks, the agony just piles on

“How are you supposed to actively short stocks in this environment? It has been impossible,” Seattle-based Fleckenstein told Reuters.

His frustration is shared by others dedicated to betting on declines, if not for the broader market then for individual stocks that look overvalued. Outside of the hard-hit energy industry, most sectors have performed well over the last several months, and dedicated short funds have been stung.

The biggest take away from the article above is not that short sellers have been unable to make money, but rather, the fact even the best researched and most successful short sellers are afraid to enter this market on the short side.

Isn’t that bullish? 

On the contrary. That suggests three things. First, everyone is already in. Just as they were at 2000 and 2007 tops. Second, the market has been distributing for close to 9 months. Finally, any upcoming bear leg is likely to be fast/violent. In other words, today’s short sellers should be grateful for the many amazing money making opportunities the market offers.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 21st, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Short Sellers Should Be Thanking GOD Google

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Why The US Stocks Are About To Surge Higher

I have to admit something. This blog has been overwhelmingly bearish over the last few months. If for no other reason than my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market over the next few years. Click here to see when it starts. And while I would love to be a bull here, that would go against my entire body of work.

However, if you are a little girl and in need of a little “pick me up”, to feel all warm and fuzzy inside, I have just the thing for you.  Watch the video below. As you can clearly see, despite bubble level valuations and multitude of divergences (macro Vs stocks), the stock market is about to surge higher. And don’t forget to buy on margin.

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Why The US Stocks Are About To Surge Higher Google

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Will Russia Directly Attack The US Troops In Ukraine?

In cartoon: Ukraine in crisis

For well over a year I have maintained that any direct US/NATO troop involvement in Ukraine’s conflict would cross Russia’s “Red Line”. Well, we are there.

What happens next? Before we get to that, here is something you have to understand. Quite a few top level Russian generals see NATO’s troop presence in Ukraine as a direct declaration of war against Russia.  And they want action.

Any junior level Pentagon analyst should realize that this will not go unanswered. Some sort of a escalation from the Russian side is likely. While I don’t think Putin is stupid enough to mount a direct attack, it is quite possible that “Pro-Russian” forces in Ukraine might stage an attack on the US troops with advanced weaponry supplied by Russia.

Here is the bottom line. Unless their primary goal is provocation of Russia, there is absolutely no need for the US troops to be in Ukraine. And by doing exactly that, the idiots in Washington have

  1. Put the US troops in harms way once again and for no apparent reason.
  2. Brought us all one step closer to an all out war between the nuclear superpowers.

For our purposes, keep a very close eye on Ukraine. Some sort of a response from Russia is coming. A response that might plunge the US equity markets and then plunge us all into an all out war. Stupidity at its best.

Z30

Will Russia Directly Attack The US Troops In Ukraine?  Google