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Druckenmiller: Time To Bet Against The FED To Earn Huge Returns

Stan Druckenmiller made over $1 Billion by betting against the bank of England with George Soros in the early 1990’s. In other words, when he talks, you better pay attention. And what does he have to say today? The exact same thing I have been yapping on this blog for quite a while now.

I know it’s so tempting to go ahead and make investments and it looks good for today,” the retired founder of Duquense Capital Management said, “but when this thing ends, because we’ve had speculation, we’ve had money building up four to six years in terms of a risk pattern, I think it could end very badly.

There is nothing more deflationary than creating a phony asset bubble, having a bunch of investors plow into it and then having it pop.

I feel more like it was in ’04 when every bone in my body said this is a bad risk/reward, but I can’t figure out how it’s going to end. I just know it’s going to end badly, and a year and a half later we figure out it was housing and subprime. I feel the same way now.

When you have zero money for so long, the marginal benefits you get through consumption greatly diminish, but there’s one thing that doesn’t diminish, which is unintended consequences.

When this thing ends, because we’ve had speculation, we’ve had money building up for four to six years, in terms of a risk pattern, I think it could end very badly.

Then again, feel free to listen to your Charles Schwab financial adviser and go long on margin. 

Z30

Druckenmiller: Time To Bet Against The FED To Earn Huge Returns  Google

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Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast

April 11th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics….

  • What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
  • COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
  • Deflation, employment numbers, gold, geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
  • A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
  • And of course, much…..much more.

Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday. 

Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here

Z30

Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast Google

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Shocking: The Same Price Buys You Either A 9 Bedroom Castle Or A 1 Br Apartment

Daily Chart April 10 2015

4/10/2015 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 99 points (+0.55%) and the Nasdaq up 21 points (+0.43%). 

The market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.  A lot of stuff to to cover this Friday.

First, here is a question……for the same amount of money, would you buy a 9 Br Castle in France or a 1 Br crappy apartment with no balcony in Sydney?  

Don’t for a second think that I have forgotten about our persisting Real Estate bubble. Nothing new on that front. The dead cat bounce off of 2010-2011 bottom is now over, the market is rolling over and it will accelerate down over the next 5 years. Most likely in conjunction with the upcoming recession and a bear market in equities. Our friend MISH has a jaw dropping post on 10 French Castles that are Cheaper than Sydney Units. Check it out. 

 Second, Einhorn Says Too Much Easy Money Is Holding Back U.S. Economy

Greenlight Capital’s Einhorn makes his point by discussing the pros and cons of jelly donuts. “My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering why it isn’t giving us energy or making us feel better. Instead of a robust recovery, the economy continues to be sluggish. Last year, when asked why his measures weren’t working, he suggested it was “bad luck.”

The problem is, the damage has already been done and it is now impossible to avoid the consequences. In this case, the consequences being a severe bear market in equities and a deep recession within the US Economy. Current weakness and collapsing economic variables, despite zero interest rates and a massive liquidity infusion, is a clear evidence of that.

Finally, Dimon, now Summers: There’s a liquidity problem

Both Dimon and Summers believe there might be a liquidity problem in the bond market. An issue that concerns both of them very much. I am beginning to hear anecdotal evidence that is the case within the stock market as well. While my positions are not large enough to trigger liquidity concerns, some of the bigger guys out there are starting to have problems liquidating their postions.

Or so I hear.  In terms of press, Crispin Odey of Odey Asset Management talks about just that in The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction. That is to say, should the market start a significant decline, we might see liquidity vanish overnight. We saw a little bit of that in October of 2014. Point being, if/when things get ugly, they will get ugly fast.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 10th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: The Same Price Buys You Either A 9 Bedroom Castle Or 1 Bedroom Apartment Google

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As World Indices Surge: Bubble Or Not?

hong kong stock makret

The US equity markets aside, you would be hard pressed to find a stock index that is not up this year. Asian markets (Nikkei and Hang Seng) are up 14%, U.K.’s FTSE is up 6%, Germany’s DAX is up 24% and Russia’s RTS is up 27%.

We then hear anecdotal accounts of Chinese housewives speculating in the stock market on margin and Hong Kong’s Exchange CEO suggesting that investors should not worry or panic. The margin debt is through the roof, particularly in Asia, and as the chart above suggests, we are now experiencing “Panic Buying” on some of the indices. Just as we have experienced on Nasdaq in early 2000.

Bubble or not…….what is going on? 

The only legitimate rally we have is in the Russian market. It was destroyed last year and as I have suggested so many times before, it is dirt cheap. As far as I am concerned it is the most undervalued market in the world.

All other rallies are incredibly speculative, driven by their respective central banks, QE, and competitive currency debasements. Will the rallies continue? Unlikely. When their respective tops are reached, most likely in a spectacular blow off fashion, most will follow the US to the downside (when the US bear market starts). And just as fast as they have came up. Beware.

Z31

As World Indices Surge: Bubble Or Not?  Google

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Good Luck Finding Something To Invest In

Daily Chart April 9 20154/09/2015 –  A positive day with the Dow Jones up 56 points (+0.31%) and the Nasdaq up 24 points (+0.48%).

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.

I continue on with my relentless drive to suggest that today’s market environment is about as close to 2000 and 2007 tops as one can get.  And just as back then, very few people are listening or paying attention. Today’s analysis deals with the lack of investment opportunities. (take a look at the article….it is worth 2 minutes of your time).

Managers say they haven’t changed, the market has. The easy money climate of near-zero interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve has artificially inflated prices of lower-quality U.S. stocks, they say, punishing those who focus on businesses with the best fundamentals. At the same time, the relentless climb of prices across equity markets has left them with few chances to sniff out bargains or show what they can do in more-volatile times.

“In straight-up markets you don’t need active managers,” D’Alelio said in a telephone interview. “If the next five years are the same, there won’t be any active managers left.”

Not only do I agree and sympathize with the sentiment above, I find myself in the same boat. There is nothing to invest in. Now, pay attention. I didn’t say to “speculate in”, I have said “to invest in”.

Proper investing demands initial undervaluation in growth or value as a starting point. With most stock being excessively overvalued, finding a reasonably priced investment opportunity at this juncture is just about as tough as finding Hillary Clinton’s lost emails.

At least at 2000 top most of the money flowed into technology and there were a multitude of cheap and unknown investment opportunities laying by the way side. That is not the case today. Everything, and I mean everything has been driven up to excessive levels. We all know how this ends.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Good Luck Finding Something To Invest In Google

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Why Apple (AAPL) Watch Will Be A Disaster

While Apple’s growth remains incredibly strong for the time being (iPhones, iPads, etc..), I have a few questions for Apple (AAPL) investors…..

  1. How long before investors realize that Apple Watch is a complete failure?
  2. Further, how much of a haircut will Apple stock get once investors realize that Apple’s innovative drive died with Steve Jobs?

Apple Watch….give me a break. Watch the video below. While intended as a promotional piece, it outlines every single reason as to why most people will not get it. Conversation starter….good at filtering……sure, and some guy from Nigeria just told me that my dead uncle left me $25 Million.

But you have got to give it to Apple’s PR machine. Apple Watch reviews don’t matter to early adopters and Apple says smartwatch demand to exceed supply at launch. Real world translation, outside of a few geeks, Apple diehards and hippies, very few people will get Apple Watch.

Finally, as soon as all of the above becomes evident, how much of a haircut will the Dow Jones (recently added Apple) get?

z33

Why Apple (AAPL) Watch Will Be A Disaster  Google

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Stockman and El-Erian: Delusional Or Smart?

z31As yours truly, David Stockman and Mohamed El-Erian continue to warn their followers that a big stock market decline and a severe recession are coming down the pipeline.

David Stockman: 

  • “The worldwide central bank money printing spree of the last two decades has generated massive excess capacity and mal-investment all around the planet.”
  • “What is coming, therefore, is not their father’s inflationary spiral, but an unprecedented and epochal global deflation.”
  • “So the central banks just keep printing, thereby inflating the asset bubbles worldwide. What ultimately stops today’s new style central bank credit cycle, therefore, is bursting financial bubbles. That has already happened twice this century. A third proof of the case looks to be just around the corner.”

Mohamed El-Erian: 

  • Financial markets have grown addicted to central bank easing, and that addiction could cause a heap of trouble when central banks tighten the credit spigot.
  • “It reminds me a little bit of 2007 and 2008,” when investors tried to discern when the turn would come away from easy credit conditions, El-Erian said. “I’m not so confident that I will see the turn coming, and turns tend to happen quite quickly.”

I couldn’t agree more. The only remaining question is…….are the US Equity markets currently going through a 9 month distribution or consolidation period? If distribution, the time to pay the piper may be soon at hand.

Z30

Stockman and El-Erian: Delusional Or Smart? Google