Investment Inspiration Of The Day Google
Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast
April 4th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics….
- What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
- COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
- Deflation, employment numbers, gold, geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
- A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
- And of course, much…..much more.
Don’t miss this one and join us again next Saturday.
Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here
Scary: Long-Term Cycles Show The Stock Market Will…..
4/2/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 64 points (+0.36%) and the Nasdaq up 6 points (+0.14%)
Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold.
In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright. So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.
The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market. For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom. The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.
What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?
Everything. Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point. The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.
THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:
Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790. If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.
- 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.
*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time. Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.
- 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
- 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
- 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one. This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
- 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
- 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.
It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market. In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption, it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.
THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET
One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time. For instance,
- 1914 -1920: Bull Market
- 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
- 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
- 1937-1942: Bear Market
- 1966-1971: Bear Market
- 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
- 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
- 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
- 2009-2014: Bull Market
One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.
CONCLUSION:
In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple. All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, it is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.
Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014. Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 4th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Scary: Long-Term Cycles Show The Stock Market Will….. Google
Bernanke: Idiotic Savers To Blame For Today’s Economic Conundrum
I wish it wasn’t true, but Mr.Bernanke now has the audacity to blame savers for today’s economic problems.
BERNANKE: People are saving way too much and it’s holding back the economy
Unbelievable, but true. In layman’s terms, here is what Mr. Bernanke wants you to do.
First, he doesn’t want you saving money. After all, saving money and then intelligently allocating that capital towards production, working capital, infrastructure, etc….., you know, growing the economy the old fashion way…..is foolish. Instead, people should spend every single penny on pointless consumption, then max out their credit cards and use that money to speculate in the stock market. Unfortunately, that is exactly how the US Economy is functioning today.
Second, the savings glut Mr. Bernanke is talking about is not a savings glut at all. It a little difficult to imagine, but it goes something like this. Mr. Bernanke (or Ms.Yellen) pushes a few buttons on his keyboard and “POOF” there is a Trillion dollars sitting on the FED’s balance sheet. Let’s call it “Magic”. That money then flows though the US and Global Economies in a number of different ways and all of a sudden we have our “Savings Glut”. There was no savings glut to begin with, its the same money (at X multiple) that the FED and other central bankers created out of thin air. Nice business if you can get in on it.
Sure, you can read Mr. Bernanke’s latest blog post and it will sound “reasonable”. Well, assuming you have at least five Ph.D’s and can understand what he is talking about. In the real world and for the real people, the explanation above will suffice. And if you are not concerned that these charlatans/criminals running our monetary system, well, you should be. They make Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout.
Bernanke: Idiotic Savers To Blame For Today’s Economic Conundrum Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Bill Gross & Sam Zell: Everything Is Freaking Mispriced
When smart and successful investors are talking, it pays to listen. Watch the videos below and decide for yourself. Their message is loud and clear…..
Bill Gross & Sam Zell: Everything Is Freaking Mispriced Google
Is The S&P About To Breakdown?
4/1/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 78 points (-0.44%) and the Nasdaq down 20 points (-0.40%).
A very solid technical look of where we are in the technical composition of the market. Definitely worth 2 minutes of your time.
I am seeing the same thing as Carter. The markets are getting weaker by the day. Markets internals continue to deteriorate, distribution period has been in place over the last 6-9 months, interest rates are about to rise, stocks are overvalued and so on and so forth. You get the picture.
In terms of the catalyst. I don’t think you will have to look further than Q-1 earnings season. Again, due to the recent surge in the US Dollar and slowing economy, I would expect quite a few big guys to miss and guide lower. And I am not even talking about small and mid caps. That could be devastating, considering today’s expensive P/E multiples and high expectations.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 1st, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Why You Should Never Go To War Over Your Investments
The saga of Herbalife continues. Six weeks ago I wrote about Ackman battling against Soros and Icahn, with Herbalife being stuck in the middle. Is It Time To Buy Herbalife (HLF)? The Saga Of Giant D#$*s And with the stock being up over 12% since then, the fun is just getting started.
Ackman says shutting Herbalife down is key to him
I have argued before that Ackman should have never dragged his short position into the court of public and judicial opinion. That is a big no no for any short seller and his Sin #1. And his Sin #2? Making a personal crusade out of the whole thing.
William Ackman, who has spent more than two years accusing Herbalife Ltd of running a pyramid scheme, said on Monday that shutting down the company is “one of the most important things” he can do.
This is important for a few reasons. First, Herbalife’s (HLF) stock broke out of its first resistance level. Suggesting that it wants to test its secondary resistance level at around $55. Probably soon. Second, Ackman is too committed to a particular outcome and 99% of the time this backfires. Finally, with Soros and Icahn on the opposite side of the trade, it is highly probable the stock will break out once this “witch hunt” goes away.
All in all, the likelihood of Herbalife’s stock pushing higher this year is very high.
Investment Grin Of The Day
Rates Will Rise As Risk Skyrockets
Everyone has an opinion on whether or not the FED will increase interest rates. Futures are saying YES and I don’t think the FED can be any more clear here. Strong case for June rates liftoff, says Fed’s Lacker
“Given what we know today, a strong case can be made that the federal funds rate should be higher than it is now,” Lacker said in prepared remarks to the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce. “I expect that, unless incoming economic reports diverge substantially from projections, the case for raising rates will remain strong at the June meeting.”
Which leads us to a pretty good advice from Saxo Bank’s chief economist. Sell Your Stocks and Take Six Months Off
“If nothing else, reduce your stock portfolio to where it was on the first of January last year, put the money into cash and take a nice long summer holiday,” said Jakobsen, 50, also chief investment officer at the Danish lender. “You won’t make any money, but you lose all the downside risk.”
I would tend to agree with the sentiment above. Imagine going into cash at 2000 and 2007 tops and that is precisely what Mr. Jakobsen is telling you to do now. Although I would make one slight adjustment. This will take a heck of a lot longer than six months to play out. Consider staying out for at least 2 years.