Over the last few days and in the last night’s update we looked at the bullish side of the story. Let’s now switch gears and see what the bears think. Here is just a small sample….

• Risk of a recession may be higher than you think
• Warning: No volume behind 8-week Nasdaq advance
• You Call This A Bull Market? 
• Investors Stockpile Cash, In Latest Hint that All’s Not Well for Stocks

Let’s for a second forget about the fundamentals, which point to a bubble, and concentrate strictly on the technical side of the equation. At this juncture a good technician should be able to argue both sides of the market with conviction. In other words, the market finds itself at an important inflection point with multiple indicators pointing in different directions. We either initiate a breakdown from today’s levels or the rally is likely to continue. Not much help here, I know.

I will leave you with this. None of the indices put in an important base at January/February lows. The rally off of this low was entirely too loose, too fast and with no heavy volume supporting it. Plus, a number of large open up gaps remain. Typically, from a technical perspective alone, such rallies (or bounces) tend to fail at the rate of 80-90%.

4/12/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 166 points (+0.95%) and the Nasdaq up 38 points (+0.80%)

On February 10th, 2016, as the stock market was selling off and investors were literally panicking, I published the following daily update.  Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long?

In that article I had the following allocation….

• Cramer: Extreme valuations point to a recession – Really? Correct me if I am wrong, but I recall Mr. Cramer calling all bears “Idiots” in May of 2015 and suggesting that the stock market was undervalued at the time. Now, 10-15% lower, it is overvalued?

Well, that’s quite interesting. Just as the market was bottoming Mr. Cramer was screaming doom and gloom. Advising people to stay out of the market and not to go long under any circumstances. Let’s fast forward to today.

• Cramer: Signs an earnings explosion is coming
• Cramer: Is anyone listening to Yellen?
• Cramer: Bernie Sanders spoiling the earnings mood

“When everyone dislikes the market, as so many people do, you can’t expect all the goods stocks you like to be on the new-high list. But when you see this kind of distribution, you know that the leadership is there. Others will follow,” Cramer said.

So, let me get this straight. When the market was putting in a bottom, Mr. Cramer was extremely bearish. But now, after a powerful 10-15% bounce, he expects further and massive upside? If anything, investors should use this as a contrarian indicator.

Tomorrow morning we will look at the other side of this equation.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 12th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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I think this would be a good time to repost this video. It is as applicable today, if not more so due to higher valuations, than a few weeks ago. David Stockman delivers a very simple message. While the US Economy is hitting a major deceleration point and GAAP earnings are down 18%, the stock market is being driven ever higher into a fantasy land. And that can only end one way. I couldn’t agree more with David’s view and I highly recommend you watch the video below.

Google

4/11/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 20 points (-0.11%) and the Nasdaq down 17 points (-0.36%). 

According to the mainstream media the market is about to surge higher.  No matter what the Q-1 earnings are. In fact, the worse these earnings are, the higher we will go…..

• Earnings season will be awful — Here are 2 reasons why you shouldn’t panic
• Standby for terrible news from Wall Street …

“With the big fall in oil and big dollar appreciation behind us and with manufacturing ISM rebounding there are good reasons to believe that the slowdown in S&P500 earnings is temporary and we should over the coming quarters see a rebound is overall earnings,” Slok said in an email on Sunday. “So yes, earnings have been slowing but given the turnaround in oil and the dollar, earnings are likely to accelerate again over the coming quarters.”

I have to admit, in their own twisted way, their login appears to be solid. If the earnings are not as bad, if the forward guidance is positive, if the bad news is out, etc….stocks are likely to accelerate to the upside.

That is true. Yet, here are a few more considerations we have to add into the mix….

1. GAAP earnings are already down 18% from a year ago. Thus far, the stock market hasn’t priced that in.
2. There no evidence that either earnings or the US Economy are about to improve. Oil, USD or not.  On the contrary, a solid argument can be made that we are at a major deceleration point.
3. I doubt very many companies will issue positive or aggressive guidance in today’s market environment. They are likely to guide down again.
4. With Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E is at 26, the market is priced for perfection. To say the least.

When we drop all of the above into the Q-1 earnings mix, a different picture emerges. While it is entirely possible the market will rally, it is just as likely the market will snap back in a violent fashion to cover today’s massive “earnings Vs. valuations” divergence. Invest accordingly.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 11th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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4/8/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 35 points (+0.20%) and the Nasdaq up 2 points (+0.05%) 

It is clear why the bears would be furious with the FED. As was covered on this blog earlier….Bulls Predict New All Time Highs. Will The Market Deliver? and Central Bank Mafia Goes All In…Stocks Rally…A Little

But, why in the world should bulls be upset?

Allow me to explain. First, today’s perceived bullish backdrop is a mirage. Must I remind you that the NYSE (largest index by capitalization) is still down 10% from two years ago. Second, how do you expect to make money when Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is at 26. The third highest level in history, behind 1929 and 2000 tops. All while GAAP earnings are down 18% from a year ago and with no hope for recovery.

Most importantly, the bulls must realize the following. No one makes money with the backdrop above. Under the best of circumstances investors should be able to maintain their capital base, but they will not increase it. Over 200 years of market data says so.

Investors tend to make money when the market has collapsed and stocks are liquidated. And if you have enough conviction to buy at those inflection points, as I did in March of 2009, you will make a fortune. With quite a few stocks zooming up at 5-10X or more to the market.

Very few stocks (if any) will do that in today’s market environment. As a result, you should be furious. And while most bulls don’t realize this yet, the FED has taken away their ability to generate any sort of a return.

Now that I have that out of my system, consider the following…..

• One of the best signals in the stock market is saying it may be time to sell
• The Coming Default Wave Is Shaping Up to Be Among Most Painful
• The divergence that’s worrying the stock market’s bulls
• ALBERT EDWARDS: A ‘tidal wave’ is coming that will throw the US into recession
• Nomura’s Bob “The Bear” Janjuah: “The Question Is What Would Be Necessary For The Fed To Do QE Or NIRP”

I am also even more convinced now that we are about 10 months through a multi-year bear market that likely won’t bottom until late 2017 or early 2018. This will be a stair-step decline with all the strength to the downside punctuated by occasional (very) violent bear market counter-trend rallies driven by short covering, hope and residual (albeit rapidly decaying) belief in policymakers.

I still feel confident that we will see 1500s on the cash S&P500 index in late Q2 or Q3, and some of the things I look at suggest a final bear market bottom for the cash S&P500 index around the same levels as the 2011 lows of sub-1100. However, this is a longer-term idea that will be subject to refinement. The focus must be on the next few days, weeks and months.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. But hey, who am I to tell you not to go long here!!!

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 8th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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The real question is, why would you want to be?

Most human beings live in the state of constant desire. And it doesn’t really matter what the object of that desire is. It can be power, money, sex, food and so on and so forth. What’s worse, even if one desire is satisfied, human mind is never contented. If will immediately create the next desire and outright misery for the underlying individual.

That is why most people are never happy, rich or poor, living in the hell of their own making. In that regard, living forever would literally translate to living in perpetual hell described in the Bible. Higher levels of consciousness must be obtained first.

For those of you interested in the subject matter, consider the following

Mind Transfer To A Computer Could Be Possible By 2050. Immortality May Be Within Reach

The functions of mind that we experience are originally implemented through neurobiological mechanisms, the neural circuitry of our brains. If the same functions are implemented in a different operating substrate, populated with parameters and operating such that they produce the same results as they would in the brain, then that mind has become substrate-independent. It is a substrate-independent mind (SIM) by being able to function in different operating substrates. The popular term ‘mind uploading’ can refer to the process of transfer, moving a specific substrate-independent mind from one operating substrate (e.g., the biological brain) to another. 

There are a lot of people selling the idea that you can mimic the brain with a computer. You could have all the computer chips ever in the world and you won’t create a consciousness. – Miguel Nicolelis

Fascinating stuff!!!

4/6/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 113 points (+0.64%) and the Nasdaq up 77 points (+1.59%) 

According to the bulls, this bull market is just starting. Consider the following.

• The $1 trillion short underlying U.S. stocks’ spring awakening

Amid its biggest about-face in nine decades, a funny thing has happened in the U.S. stock market, where rather than loosen their grip bears have grown ever-more impassioned. They’ve sent short interest to an eight-year high and above $1 trillion, by one analyst’s math. Position reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show mutual fund managers are more skeptical now than any time since at least 2010.

Let’s not forget a substantial commercial VIX long position (COT Report) that can or should be grouped into this. The above can be interpreted in one of two ways. Sure, it can be argued that the metric above is extremely bullish and that such a high short-interest can provide the jet fuel needed to proper the market to new all time highs.

Yet, there is another interpretation that no one one is talking about. And while I can’t prove it, I believe quite a few investors/managers are looking at today’s market with their jaw wide open. They have never seen such a blatant manipulation by the FED and such wide divergences between economic/earnings reality and today’s bubble valuations. That is to say, if there has ever been a “brain dead” ideal market short setup, we are witnessing it today. And from that angle, record short interest makes sense.

• TOM LEE: Stocks will hit all-time highs by the summer

Correct me if I am wrong, but Tom Lee has been “extremely” bullish over the last two years. Yet, during that time the NYSE (largest index by capitalization) is down close to 10%. Still down close to 10% and is in a clear bear market pattern. Plus, he was “extremely” bullish prior to August and January sell-offs.

Nevertheless, let’s take his claim that we just had a “March of 2009” bottom event in February seriously and consider his bullish points.

His Comment: As to why, it is not entirely explainable but in retrospect, the period from August 2015 to February 2016, was a “bear market” even though the S&P 500 did not statistically fall 20%. We realize many investors look to the remainder of 2016 with apprehension, however, we believe equity markets are poised to make new highs in coming months. the stock market has had its “March 2009” moment.

My Comment: My Dow charts go back to May 19th, 1790. Not in the single instance do I recall a full on bear market lasting just six months. To somehow link up recent January’s sell-off to March 2009 bottom is irresponsible at best. It makes no sense. It would be similar to comparing apples to donkeys. Not only in terms of % decline, how long it took and where we are in the cyclical composition of the market, but from the perspective of even calling this a bear market.

I believe the confusion stems from trying to figure out where we are in the overall composition of the market. As outlined in my previous articles, quite a few bulls assume that we have started a new bull market from 2009 lows. And in a sense they are correct. We will not go below that low. Yet, they are wrong about where we are today. We are still within the confines of a 2000-2017 secular bear market. Bear markets that typically end with a 2-3 year declines.

His Comment: First, he anticipates a recovery in sales and earnings, as the adverse effect of the strong dollar on corporate earnings reduces.The dollar’s 10% jump last year subtracted about $93 billion, or $10 a share, from S&P 500 company earnings, he calculates. But more companies should report sales gains this year as the dollar’s drag fades.

My Comment: And I anticipate that I will win a lottery tomorrow. Two issues here or two deadly assumptions. First, why would earnings recover? The Fed liquidity party is over and there no growth drivers out there. Further and as outlined on this blog before, GAAP earnings are down 18% from just a year ago and there is nothing to suggest that they will stage a miraculous recovery. Second, he assumes the USD will continue its decline. That’s a big assumption. What if the dollar breaks above recent high – no matter what Janet Yellen does? Quite a few very smart investors think the dollar will push higher. That is to say, there a lot of “IFs” in his analysis

His Comment:  Lee says, the imbalance between oil supply and demand keeps getting closer to equilibrium every month. Later this month, a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members could produce an agreement on output cuts, though Saudi Arabia has threatened to abstain unless Iran gets on board.

My Comment: Seriously? Some of the best oil traders in the world are being fooled by the recent moves in the oil market, but don’t worry, Mr. Lee knows exactly what the oil or Saudi Arabia or Iran or Russia will do going forward. His view is sheer nonsense.

His Comment: Lee notes the high levels of short interest in stocks, or investors’ bets against their advance. He says the level of short interest — 4.3% of float — tops the levels seen in March 2009 when stocks bottomed.

My Comment: I addressed that above. This is just as bearish as it is bullish.

His Comment: Lee also expects the US consumer to remain a “bright spot” in the economy.

My Comment: Again…..based on what? See the first two comments.

With that in mind, since Mr. Lee is so confident in his analysis and view, I am sure his own personal portfolio is loaded with short-term (summer) call options. Perhaps he can retire as soon as his high probability forecast comes to fruition.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 6th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

4/5/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 133 points (-0.75%) and the Nasdaq down 48 points (-0.98%)

My partner Matt Demeter is trying something incredibly unique. Particularly, if you follow the Gold market. He is putting his money where his mouth is.

Dear Fellow Investor,

I’m Matt Demeter of Demeter Research.  I take pride in making ultra-precise calls in macro markets.  Using the mathematical symmetry found in all market patterns, my methods allow me to determine the precise points where bull and bear markets terminate, and my track record proves it.

During the precious metals bear market of the past four years, I have become increasingly frustrated with the fundamental gurus and newsletter writers who have no concrete idea of where gold will make its final bear market bottom but routinely insist each new short-term low is the final low because gold is “too cheap and couldn’t possibly go lower.”

People actually pay for this horribly imprecise and unprofitable information.  So I have decided to do something novel.  I will share with you the exact price at which gold will bottom and if I’m wrong, you pay nothing.  To me, that’s the only fair way to do business.

If you’d like to learn more about Demeter Research’s Gold Bottom Call, please click here.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 5th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Over the last few years I have maintained that Western Governments and Western Media are hell bent on starting a war with Russia. Whatever their reasons might be.

Nowhere was this more evident than this week’s now infamous “Panama Leak”. Even though Mr. Putin’s name did not appear once in the documents above, directly or indirectly, quite a few major media outlets went ahead with directly linking Mr. Putin to their sensational story.

Here is a good summary: Panama leak reveals more about Western journalism than Vladimir Putin

Not to defend President Putin, but this is blatant propaganda at its worse. Remember, before a war can be fought, the other side MUST be demonized. That is exactly what is happening here.

In other words, things continue to progress exactly as I first outlined in my report/book a few years ago The Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon: Shocking TIME Formula Reveals Exactly When How & Why . And should Hillary Clinton win the general election, things will only accelerate.

In the meantime, the fools at the mainstream media outlets continue to wonder

Here’s who would win if Russia, China, and America all went to war right now

I made a stunning prediction in my book two years ago. That Russia and China will form a military alliance to counterbalance NATO. That should happen over the next few 5-10 years as per my timeline. That is to say, China/Russia will fight against the US and their increasingly marginalized puppets in Europe.

But since the foolish warmongers in the media insist, I’ll tell them who will come out ahead in all of this. Cockroaches.