3/18/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 118 points (+0.68%) and the Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.43%). 

The last two weeks were quite extraordinary. In a sense that all major central banks have gone “All In“. The Bank of Japan has already gone negative. China continues to devalue the Yuan while injecting more capital. Last week the ECB and Mario Draghi went all in. I wrote about it here……ECB & Draghi Go All In……Markets Yawn This week, Janet Yellen followed up with FED’s Stunning Admission

An independent observer might just inquire……What the hell is going on? 

I think you will find most of the answers in this article.

Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets? This rumor says yes

Rumors are flourishing that global policy makers made a secret deal at the G-20 meeting in Shanghai late last month. This “Shanghai Accord” to weaken the greenback was aimed at calming the financial markets, which had gotten off to an awful start to the new year, according to the chatter.

That sounds about right. And the result? Most bulls are rejoicing….at least for the time being.

• Dow’s doing something it hasn’t done since 1933
• The Fed is crushing the dollar — and that’s great for stocks
• Cramer: Signs a massive rally could be coming

Wonderful……right? Not so fast.

• If No One Is Trading, Is It Really a Rally?
• Earnings season might spoil Yellen’s Goldilocks announcement

Basically, here is what you have to understand from all of the above. 

• The Fed/ECB/BJ/PBOC have gone all in and then some. And what did that intervention get them? A weaker dollar (not by much) and a 2,000 point rally on the Dow (thus far).
• Yet, the fundamental reality remains the same. The worldwide economy and earnings are coming to a screeching halt while the stock market is selling at historic bubble valuation levels. As described in multiple previous posts on this blog.

As a result, the real question investors should be asking here is…..

What happens when earning decline and economy rolls over into a recessionary environment…… all while investors realize that stocks are selling at dizzying valuations levels and that central bankers have already gone “all in”???

I can think of quite a few scenarios, with none of them being too kind to today’s bulls.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 18th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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3/17/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 155 points (+0.89%) and the Nasdaq up 11 points (+0.23%) 

Last time I published this video from Carl Icahn the stock market was putting in November 2015 top. I think this would be an opportune time to repeat the message. What he has to say about our financial markets is even more relevant today.

“God knows where this is going. It’s very dangerous and could be disastrous. It’s like a movie theater and somebody yells fire. There is only one little exit door. The exit door is fine when things are OK, but when they yell fire, they can’t get through the exit door…and there’s nobody to buy those junk bonds. Stocks are way overpriced.

I found myself agreeing with 95% of what he had to say and I command him for coming out and speaking his mind. If you participate in financial markets and/or care about what happens in the US, the video below is a MUST watch.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 17th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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After looking at the FED statement further I found it to be simply stunning. Not in terms of them telling us something that I haven’t covered on this blog before, but because they are no longer beating around the bush.

In their previous economic releases the FED suggested that they will base their interest rate decisions on exact data points such as inflation, employment, capacity utilization, etc…. Yesterday’s statement makes it clear, at least to me, that the FED is now entirely market dependent…..not data dependent.

Something I have said here before. The FED’s End Game Is Finally Unveiled.

And that indeed appears to be the case. What a sad state of affairs.

Click on the link above for the long version, but basically this spells eventual doom for our entire economic and financial system. Why? There is a fatal flaw with their plan. It only works until it doesn’t. It only works until the FED has any credibility left. The problem is, more and more people are beginning to realize how out of touch with reality these fools are.

3/16/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 78 points (+0.45%) and the Nasdaq up 35 points (+0.75%) 

Well, the FED has chickened out once again. That shouldn’t come as a surprise.

I will simply repeat what I have said here 8 months ago. And since that forecast appears to be dead on, there is no need to change anything. 

Here is the original from August of 2015.  Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates

I am 75% confident that the FED will not raise interest rates at all and 100% confident that they will not raise it in any meaningful way. What is meaningful? Even 8 separate hikes at 25 bps each would be laughable here.  And while anything above that will matter, I am extremely confident that we will not even get close to that over the next 2-5 years.

Here is why…….

• China has launched an official currency war by devaluing the Yuan 6 times (thus far) over the last few months. Japan is trying to do the same and the EU is now implementing further easing and QE. In this ocean of devaluation, the US cannot afford to have a strong currency.
• Plus, the US Economy is rolling over into a recession. Some of today’s official numbers are starting to reflect that.
• We are on the verge of a massive down leg in our equity markets. At least based on my mathematical and timing work. The stock market is extremely overpriced.
• Commodities have collapsed.
• Deflationary forces are reappearing throughout the economy.
• Etc….

As I have mentioned before, this is the worst case scenario for the FED. They are already TOO LATE. Now they are stuck in a situation where our economy and capital markets collapse while they are rendered powerless. As soon as other investors realize that……well…….watch out below.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 16th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Comrade Putin was able to accomplish something in the Middle East in six months that NATO/US have been unable to do in over 25 years. To actually win a war and go home. Well, that is unless Pentagon’s objective was always to bomb half the Middle East back to the stone age. Which appears to be the case.

All I can say is……I told you so.

Here is what I said last September when Russia first launched its military campaign.

Is Russia About To Annihilate ISIS?

On a more serious note, if they really go after them, Russia will be able to wipe out ISIS and all associated terrorist parties (American backed “freedom fighters” on Monday and just regular terrorist by Friday) within a few months. That should stabilize the region and stop the humanitarian/refugee disaster we are all witnessing today.

Here is the latest…..

• Moscow is winding down its presence in Syria — Why? Why now?
• Putin Got Exactly What He Wanted in Syria
• Russia withdraws from Syria: What’s next?

What do I believe?

I think Putin believes Assad is now stable enough to finish the job on his own. That is, to complete military operations and to pull his country back from the brink. And that is exactly what Putin wanted to begin with. He didn’t want another Libya and Saudi’s oil pipeline running through Syria to Europe.

Other victories are too numerous to mention here. Here is all you need to know. The imbeciles in Washington are still stunned by all of this. Not only are they scratching their heads trying to figure out how Putin was able to do this in less than six months, they are at a complete loss as to what Putin’s actual long-term plan is.

Here is what I think that plan is, but what do I know……I just work here.

Endgame In Sight: Putin Declares War On Saudi Arabia. Will The US Respond?

3/15/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 22 points (+0.13%) and the Nasdaq down 22 points (-0.45%) 

It’s a little odd that the master himself, Warren Buffett, wasn’t able to answer the question, but we do find ourselves in a very complex market environment. With most traders and investors having a reasonable argument for whatever case may come into their minds. Before we get to Mr. Buffett let’s explore some of them.

• Warning: Don’t Buy Stocks Now; Market Set for Fall, These Charts Show

Here’s the 2-hour bar chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index. It has been rising strongly since the February double bottom at $181, which was also the low of Jan. 20. The problem, from a pattern-recognition perspective, which is something we monitor in ourlive-market Trading Room, is that after a huge double bottom, the historic expectation would be for a monster rally that conforms to the guidelines of Elliott Wave theory (a five-wave rise with orthodox intrawave symmetry).

A very good look at the subject matter indeed. Now…..

• There’s Only One Buyer Keeping S&P 500’s Bull Market Alive

Demand for U.S. shares among companies and individuals is diverging at a rate that may be without precedent, another sign of how crucial buybacks are in propping up the bull market as it enters its eighth year.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. We have talked about this before. I can tell you one thing, I am certainly not buying anything at today’s levels.

• This is ‘judgment day’ for stocks: Technician

After a huge market rout this year that sent stocks tumbling, the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) has regained the majority of its losses and is down only 1 percent year to date. Now, as the S&P approaches its 200-day moving average, its ability to break above that technical resistance will determine whether or not stocks can keep gaining ground, said Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray.

I couldn’t agree more. Another good look at the market. And finally……

• WARREN BUFFETT: The foundation of every market bubble is a ‘sound premise’

When you have a sound premise, you may also have a “This can’t go wrong” mentality. And when you add money to that equation, the price action quickly takes over. Bubbles continue to be obvious only in hindsight, largely because something based on a “sound premise” surely couldn’t be a bubble. Unfortunately in the markets, a premise is sound until it isn’t.

I very good look at the subject matter, but I find it interesting that Mr. Buffett does not identify today’s market environment as a bubble.  Further, his premise that bubbles can only be identified in hindsight is a false one. Plenty of people, including your truly, have been able to identify both the 2000 tech and 2007 mortgage/real estate bubbles.

And I assure you, we are in one today. Call it the “FED Bubble”, “Criminal Monetary Policy Bubble”, “QE Bubble” or what have you, but we are in one. Today’s extreme valuation levels, as I have illustrated here over the last few days, clearly point to that conclusion. In other words, it might be time to expect the worst.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 15th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

In last night’s update David Stockman laid out a fairly good bearish case. A case I tend to agree with. But not everyone believes that our predicament is that dire. In fact, most investors today will go out of their way in an attempt to shore up their bullish view. For instance……

Gutsy Wall Street analyst dares to debunk a sacred truism about the stock market

One the more important and widely-accepted truisms about the P/E ratio is that it has a tendency to revert to its average. But Wells Fargo’s John Silvia dares to dispute that almost sacred principle. “Contrary to popular commentary, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is not mean reverting,” Silvia said on Thursday.

In other words, “this time is different” crowd is making a comeback. I’ll tell you one thing. You wouldn’t find an article like this floating around just a few weeks ago when the market was pushing multi-year lows. Yet, a powerful rally/bounce since then is forcing all sorts of nonsense back to the surface again.

It is NEVER different. 
Adjusted Shiller S&P P/E Ratio chart above is crystal clear. Today’s valuations are some of the highest in history. Only 1929 and 2000 blow tops were higher. And we are now on par with 2007 top.

But that’s not the worst of it. As Mr. Stockman kindly pointed out in the video below, GAAP S&P earnings are down 18% from about a year ago. And with no catalyst to turn our current economic predicament around, I expect these said earnings to accelerate down over the next few months.

In other words, today’s stock market is like an out of fuel jet fighter that just stalled after going nearly vertical. I’ll assure you of this, the final outcome won’t be very pleasant.