A positive day with the Dow Jones up 176 points (+0.53%) and the Nasdaq up 21 point (+0.21%)

About a week ago we commented on the used car “bubble” prices collapsing. If you recall, this metric represents a rather large chunk of the FED’s inflationary index. 

Now, rents are hitting the skids. Fed’s New Inflation Index Shows Rent Slowing Sharply, Setting Stage For Fed Pivot

There are two things that need to happen for the Fed to stop hiking and pivot (or just one if the Fed were to raise its inflation target, which will happen but not for several years as Powell himself admitted last week): first, the labor market has to turn decidedly weaker with both the pace of monthly payrolls increase and hourly earnings having to come down drastically; and second, inflation has to drop sharply on a Y/Y basis and has to at worst flatten sequentially.

Regarding the first, we are almost there. Recall that as we first reported last week, the Philly Fed had effectively revised what was according to the BLS a gain of 1.1 million jobs to just 10,500 jobs, meaning that the Fed was looking at erroneously overstated, arguably politicized data, as it unleashed its burst of 75bps rate hikes in June… which happened just as June jobs number turned negative.

“For the better part of his presidency, while the American economy has struggled and record inflation has brought historic pain to families and small businesses across the country, President Joe Biden has consistently bragged about job growth”, Scott wrote adding that “now, thanks to the good work of analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, we know that the BLS inaccurately reported the creation more than one million jobs, and that much of what President Biden has claimed credit for as the economic achievements for his administration is a lie.”

WRONG BY A MILLION JOBS. THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS.@JoeBiden‘s admin has been lying to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda & I won’t stand for it. I’m requesting an immediate meeting with the head of @BLS_gov. WE NEED ANSWERS NOW! pic.twitter.com/OKwsiYSoER

— Rick Scott (@SenRickScott) December 16, 2022

In other words, most important/large inflationary metrics are decelerating if not outright reversing in a major way. Jobs creation numbers are fake. There aren’t any and mass corporate layoffs are just starting. The short end of the yield curve is stable and the FED is right on top of it.

Yet, we are expected to believe they will continue to hike interest rates? 

Give me a break. The stock market might be sniffing this out as well. 

Trying to make money based on what the FED does or doesn’t do is incredibly hard. Our mathematical and timing work is not. It clearly shows what the stock market will do in both price and time over the next few months. If you would like to see, please Click Here. 

If You Would Like To Find Out What The Stock Market Will Do Next – Click Here

NO DOUBT!!!

China, Russia “Strengthen Cooperation” With Large-Scale Joint Navy Drills

Russia and China have announced new large-scale joint naval drills to be held this week in the East China Sea at a moment the West has continued to be alarmed that relations between Moscow and Beijing have remained unfazed by the Ukraine war.

The Russian defense ministry (MoD) announced the drills will be held December 21-27, with a purpose to “strengthen cooperation between the two navies to maintain peace and stability in the Asian Pacific region.” There will also be an anti-submarine warfare and missile launch training component to the drills.

We have been saying this for close to twenty years now. More precisely, we have predicted over 15 years ago that before WW-3 Nuclear Exchange will take place in late 2020s, Russia and China will announce a military alliance. 

You can see that report here. Nuclear World War 3 Is Coming Soon. When, How & Why (Full Report)

As I have said in that report back then, the final nail in the coffin of this forecast would be an official announcement of a military alliance between China and Russia. At that juncture we would have to accept the fact that our Nuclear Exchange forecast is indeed dead on accurate. And as is evident, we are coming ever closer to this reality. 

If you would like to find out exactly when this Nuclear Exchange will take place and things you can do now, please Click Here

12/19/2022 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 162 points (-0.49%) and the Nasdaq down 159 points (-1.49%) 

The amount mainstream bearishness out there is quite striking. For instance, Mike Wilson Turns Apocalyptic: “The Declines For Equities Will Be Much Worse Than What Most Are Expecting”

Meanwhile, the Dow is down only 6% off of its recent highs and everyone is losing their minds. 

Just take a look at the Put/Call Ratio below. While off its recent high, it is still nearly on par with the March of 2020 “freak out” peak. 

That is too say, there is quite a bit of bearishness baked into this market. And that in itself might prove to be quite bullish. 

Trying to make money based on bullish/bearish patterns or various indicators is incredibly hard. Our mathematical and timing work is not. It clearly shows what the stock market will do in both price and time over the next few months. If you would like to see, please Click Here. 

If You Would Like To Find Out What The Stock Market Will Do Next – Click Here

Great discussion, but everyone is way too bearish if you ask me. Time to buy? Find Out

If You Would Like To Find Out What The Stock Market Will Do Next – Click Here

But not for the reasons you might imagine. Just the opposite. He is an idiot for being too patient, too soft and I would argue too nice. And that is driving us all towards a nuclear war. Allow me to elaborate…..

I would have to agree with Paul Craig Roberts on this. He is indeed dead on accurate……

• Is Russian Restraint Averting the Risk of Nuclear War – or Inviting It?

• Expect More Widening of the Ukraine Conflict

• Is the Kremlin Out to Lunch?

• The Prospect of Nuclear War Is Getting too Close for Comfort

Bottom line: what Moscow does next will not only determine the course of the war in Ukraine but whether the world goes up in radioactive smoke. Does restraint and non-response to provocation make the apocalyptic scenario more likely, or less? Conversely, would a rapid, decisive move by Moscow widen that window or help close it?

His premise is rather simple. By being TOO soft on Ukraine, Putin is giving the West too much time to re-group and to escalate the conflict. And that is exactly what is happening. We went from being very cautious to now sending the US troops and Patriot missile systems into Ukraine. Does anyone remember how Vietnam got going? 

Our own mathematical and timing work clearly indicates that there will be a nuclear exchange between NATO members and Russia/China alliance. We still have a few years left, but it is coming. If you would like to find out exactly when it will happen, please Click Here. 

Only if Putin could be more “liberal” and wipe out Ukraine in one go. Also Poland and the Baltic states for a good measure, we might all be able to escape such a dreadful faith. 

Another negative day with the Dow Jones down 282 points (-0.85%)  and the Nasdaq down 105 points (-0.97%) 

I found this to be a very interesting opinion on the subject matter from Paul Craig Roberts The Inflation Hoax

Yes, prices are rising, but not for the reasons the Federal Reserve says. When I say inflation is a hoax, I mean the purported cause is a hoax. The Fed is fighting a consumer inflation, a “demand-pull” inflation.But what we are experiencing is a supply-side inflation caused by the Covid lockdowns and economic sanctions that closed businesses, disrupted supply chains, and broke business relationships while reducing energy supplies to the UK and European countries, thus forcing up costs in a globalized economy.One of the many neglected problems of globalism is that inflations and recessions are no long simply a national problem. Interconnectedness sends adversity globally, although in varying degrees.

I couldn’t agree more as we’ve held the same point of view. 

Meanwhile the Fed yesterday raised interest rates another half a percentage point in the face of expectations of a bad recession in the coming year.  This is the high level of incompetence that today rules Americans.

Personally, I am suspicious of this inflation.  If it is, as I believe, the result of supply disruptions, the resumption of productive activity following the disastrous lockdowns would itself have brought prices down without need of Fed action.  I also suspect that the inflation resulted in part from announcements of its arrival, in which announcements executives and boards saw opportunity to boost profits and obtain their bonus rewards by raising prices.  A lot goes on that passes unnoticed by economists and pundits.

Mr. Roberts is entirely correct. 

I would just add that “Covid Stimulus” did have a large impact. Yes, its function was to replace lost income, but in most cases it did much more than that. I personally know quite a few people who made out like bandits with PPP, unemployment benefits, SBA loans, etc……

Meaning, today’s apparent inflation is once again rolling over into a deflationary spiral. Just as it should.  And unless there is yet another disruption, something in line with the Covid Scam, we should expect this trend to accelerate going forward. 

In other words and for the time being, I am calling the FED’s bluff.  

Well, trying to make money based on what the FED will or will not do is incredibly hard. Our mathematical and timing work is not. It clearly shows what the stock market will do in both price and time over the next few months. If you would like to see, please Click Here.