Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Find Out Why Gold Is Going Much Lower
Quite a few investors are passionate about Gold. And while their fundamental case that Gold must sell at much higher prices might very well be right, the market could care less about what people think. The market will do what it needs to do in order to hit important mathematical points of force.
Matt Demeter believes Gold will head much lower as the long-term bottom for the metal is not yet in. As a matter of fact, GOLD will have to fall quite a bit more before a bear market bottom is put in place. Please watch the video below for more information. The same type of an analysis applies to the rest of the financial markets we follow. To learn more about Matt’s work and Gold please CLICK HERE.
Just A “Healthy” Correction Or Something More?
11/12/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 254 points (-1.44%) and the Nasdaq down 62 points (-1.22%)
At this juncture most investors have assumed that the correction is over and that the market will push higher over the next few months/years. In fact, the Dow 20K is once again just around the corner. As is illustrated in the video here Fed must weigh impact of new financial market landscape: Yellen
“It is crucial to understand the effect of regulations and possible changes in financial intermediation on monetary policy implementation and transmission,” Yellen added.
In other words, “Blah, blah, blah”, we have no idea how we will raise rates without setting off a major correction in MOST asset classes.
On the flip side, I believe this guy has the right idea. The Fed’s going to trick the market, again: Trader
Which is the view I have expressed here so many times before. Particularly, what the FED will do is as clear as night and day. It goes something like this…..
- Can’t raise or won’t raise. Today’s economy or financial markets won’t be able to digest any rate increases at this juncture. Period. As talked about on this blog so many times before. Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates If the FED members have even an ounce of intelligence, and I believe they do, they realize the same. Point being, they won’t raise in any meaningful way. If at all.
- If the market declines, issue a “Dovish” statement. Bring it up. (Late September)
- If the market recovers, issue a “Hawkish” statement. As they did last week. Remember, they don’t want things too overheated.
- Rinse and repeat while praying the market and/or the US Economy won’t implode on their own.
Finally, no one has stopped to consider the other alternative. That the rally off of August 24th or September 29th lows is not the beginning of the next leg up, but a corrective motion. For instance, the market left quite a few down gaps. Down gaps it will have to close sooner or later. The angular composition of this move higher, at 85 degrees, suggests a counter trend rally, not a structural move higher.
In other words, the market is suggesting this move higher might be a bounce as opposed to a new bull market. If true, today’s “Healthy” correction can very well turn into a major sell-off.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 12th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Has China Been Fixed?
11/11/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 57 points (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq down 16 points (-0.32%).
Has China been fixed?
If your think in a linear fashion, which would eventually be devastating to your investment returns, the answer is YES. One Less Hurdle for Fed Hike: China Comes Back From Danger Zone
When the Federal Reserve in September held off from its first interest-rate increase since 2006, the U.S. central-bank head cited growing concerns about China’s market turmoil among the reasons. “A lot of our focus has been on risks around China,” she said in a press conference after the decision.
The above is just another data point that the FED is now a market puppet. The reality is quite different. Take a look at this 3-year Chinese Large Cap ETF (FXI).
Does it look like the worst is behind us?
Well, one can argue that the bottom has been put in place and that the Chinese market is now ready to stage a come back rally. Yet, I can just as easily argue that we are in the early stages of a more severe decline. Think 2000-2002 on the Nasdaq. There are no technical confirmations either way. At least not yet. As a result, we have to rely on the fundamentals. And the picture there is kind of scary.
- China’s factory growth weakens, retail sales stay strong
- Just How Big Is China’s Bubble? This Will Blow Your Mind
- Is China About To Collapse – Drag Us All Down
- Marc Faber Laughs At China, IMF/FED & The Stock Market Stupidity
In other words, it is kind of presumptuous to assume that China has somehow bottomed. If anything, their fundamentals continue to deteriorate. In July of this year I have suggested the following China’s Nasdaq 2000 Crash Is Set For A Bounce And while I was a few weeks early, we did get that bounce. A bounce that might now be over.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 11th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Grin Of The Day
How I feel every Friday afternoon. Mostly because I am a market addict.
Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity
I continue to maintain that Facebook (FB) is probably the best SHORT out there. For the reasons outlined here, Why Short Sellers Should Drool All Over Facebook And also here, Is Facebook (FB) Cooking “Likes”…..Again?
As a quick update, I have witnessed FAKE likes/views on my dead page skyrocket about 5X over the last few weeks. Listen, I don’t have anything against Facebook. Just pointing out the fact that they are insanely overvalued while cooking their internal viewership and interaction metrics. Metrics quite a few people depend on to value the company.
Further, Marc Andreessen sells $96.5M in Facebook stock (half his stake). Does he know something other investors don’t?
Finally, consider the video below. I have to admit, I cannot verify the information in this video. However, if true, it points to what I have suggested above. Facebook is cutting major corners in their attempts to increase “eyeballs”, interactions and add revenue. That only works until it doesn’t. Just ask MySpace and many others.
Just How Unlikely Is Another Bear Leg Here?
11/10/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 28 points (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 12 points (-0.24%)
A couple of interesting things to consider here today. First, here is how most investors today think. The next 1000-point down day is coming
For those worried about a financial collapse who keep yelling “global debt,” we are not on the cusp of another financial collapse. There is simply too much available money in the world and more at the ready whenever anything remotely resembling a collapse threatens. Remember, don’t fight the Fed? Well, don’t fight the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, People’s Bank of China and any number of other central banks either. If they have to monetize (socialize) half of the planet’s debt and worry about inflation later, that’s what they will do. Mind you, I’m not arguing that’s right, I’m just saying it is reality.
I would tend to agree, but don’t make the mistake of believing the stock market cannot have a big down leg here. It can and it will
The stock market is a function of multiple TIME cycles oscillating within its composition. Meaning, when the time is right, the stock market will decline. No matter what the FED or the Bank of Japan do. It is just as much about investor psychology as it is about liquidity and valuations..
Now, not that we need another confirmation point, but here you go…..
The article attached to this chart suggests that the FED will raise interest rates to take away the proverbial “punch bowl”. After all, they don’t want things getting out of control.
I am sorry to pop anyone’s bubble, but things are already out of control. All time high in consumer credit is yet another data point to suggest that we are in a massive financial or speculative bubble. The time to take this punch bowl away was 3 years ago. The FED has missed the boat. Now, it will have to collapse under its own weight.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 10th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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How To Eat Nails For Breakfast
Participate in financial markets long enough and sooner or later you will get your head handed to you. And I don’t care how good you are, sometimes things are simply out of your control. Highly publicized Bill Ackman’s Valeant (VRX) investment is a perfect example of that.
Last week we talked about value investing and how difficult or gut wrenching it can be to purchase great businesses for 0.50….0.25…..0.10 cents on the dollar. What Value Investors Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market
Mr. Ackman offers another $2 Billion learning experience (his losses thus far). If you believe in your investment thesis strong enough and your analysis checks out, stay put. Even double up. All successful investors out there had similar defining moments. Ackman says Valeant stock ‘extraordinary bargain’
“Life will go on for Valeant,” he said. “While this has been a very damaging moment for the company … we think the Valeant business is quite robust.” Ackman said he thought the stock was “tremendously undervalued” and had an “89% upside.” He added that investors were forgetting the “rest of Valeant’s business.”
Perhaps another hedge fund manager, Whitney Tilson, has said it the best……
Every investor should analyze this case study to learn from Ackman’s experience, as every last one of us has had (and will have) to deal with a major investment going south. How do you collect more information, filter out the noise, analyze the situation, control your emotions, and ultimately make the right decision among four choices: dump it all, trim, hold, or buy? It is almost never obvious what the right answer is — rather, every option feels really crappy when you’ve lost a lot of money on an investment, especially if you’re in the hot glare of the public spotlight. I’ve been there and it’s no fun.
In other words, if you want to succeed in this business, learn to eat nails for breakfast. Preferably without milk.
These Shocking Charts Lead To Bullish Nightmares. At Least They Should.
11/9/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 178 points (-0.99%) and the Nasdaq down 52 points (-1.01%)
It’s all about the FED. Right?
Not so fast. Last week it was December rate hike priced in? Maybe, experts say Today, we get a little sell-off and this headline pops up. Wall St. falls as rate hike looms and growth fears linger
Which one is it?
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the FED is now irrelevant. Why the FED will not raise rates in a meaningful way.
Instead, investors should concentrate on what the market charts are telling them.
Before we get there, let me ask you something. What has changed between September 29th bottom and today? NOTHING FUNDAMENTAL, only investor sentiment. Where on September 29th investors were freaking out and numerous commentators were calling for an all out market crash, today it’s the opposite. Apparently, the bear market is over and we are getting ready to surge higher.
Yet, fundamentally speaking, we are still in the same conundrum. I continue to maintain that we are witnessing a major slow down in earnings and the US Economy. Most corporates missing and guiding lower is a clear evidence of that. Forward guidance is down 2%. Sure, some companies like Google, Amazon, etc…. are outperforming, but they are an exception, not the rule. The FED remains between the rock and a hard place. Unable to raise interest rates or stimulate the economy further.
If anything, we are getting numerous confirmations that earnings and the US Economy are falling apart.
As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. The charts below should at least give bulls indigestion. Please note, some of the charts below are a few days/weeks old. Yet, their meaning or composition have not changed.
Chart #1: Hey everyone, look at all of those gaps. If you think the market won’t come back to close them, sooner or later, you are living in a fantasy land. But listen, we are all adults here. Who am I to tell you NOT to buy Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc….at today’s ridiculous valuation levels. As Citigroup suggests, “Be brave and go long”.
Chart #2: Oldie but goodie. Again, overall earnings/economy are slowing down while Shiller’s adjusted S&P ratio is at its 3rd highest level in history. Investors have paid more for stocks on two other occasions. In 1929 and 2000. But, unlike yours truly, most bulls don’t mind paying the same premium today.
Chart #3: Look at all of these non-confirmations from Russell 2000, Dow Transports and Biotech (IBB). These are just a few. There are many other. New Bull market??? Yeah, sure…..to infinity and beyond.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 9th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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These Shocking Charts Lead To Bullish Nightmares. At Least They Should. Google